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Rethinking Santorum: Conventional Wisdom Finally Catches Up to Where I Was Two Weeks Ago

By: Erick Erickson (Diary)  |  January 31st, 2012 at 10:08 AM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

This morning I noted that Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich together get more votes than Romney and several polls out in the past few weeks have had Santorum votes going to Gingrich. That has been the convention wisdom.

About two weeks ago I decided the conventional wisdom was wrong, but having been told for two weeks I was wrong, I made the mistake of sticking with the conventional wisdom this morning.

Suddenly the new conventional wisdom is where I was back on January 12 and reflected as recently as last week in my Horserace poll.
The reality is, polling has taken a while to process Marianne Gingrich and many pundits still don’t get evangelicals and have been convinced conservative evangelicals would not go with a Mormon.

In fact, as the Marist poll now shows and shapes anew the conventional wisdom toward where I’ve been, evangelical voters don’t care that Romney is a Mormon. They do care that Newt Gingrich is on his third wife, having left the first for the second and the second for the third.

Moreso, as evangelical leaders told me the night of the South Carolina election, serious discussions have been had about keeping Santorum in the race to keep Gingrich from rising. But as more and more arrived at the conclusion that Santorum actually hurts Romney, less have felt it necessary to send big bucks to Santorum to keep him in.

The concern many evangelicals have is on social and family issues, which many think could not be adequately discussed if Newt Gingrich were the nominee. We are starting to see the shift to Mitt Romney, begrudgingly, not because they like him but because reality is setting in that Santorum cannot win and Newt Gingrich has too much personal baggage for many evangelicals to get past.

Ultimately, I think a Santorum departure becomes a wash with Santorum voters fracturing mostly toward Romney, but with a significant minority to Gingrich and undecideds still out there leaning toward Gingrich making Santorum’s departure not as meaningful as some might otherwise want to believe, though definitely tightening it drawing Gingrich closer to Romney.

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COMMENTS

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  • Ann_W

    You have to extrapolate future performance based on the information you have. And when the remaining candidates are flawed it is hard. I agree with Erick that Newt’s baggage is very heavy. In my mind Romney and Gingrich are about tied when considering their past performance. Thinking about conservatives being put in the position to say over and over again in the general that adultery and cheating doesn’t matter turns my stomach. Clinton already did too much damage in this area. We don’t need more people thinking it’s not a big deal.

  • redstatereadersc

    A poll with tea partiers 2 days ago showed Rick Santorum would create the most enthusiasm. Santorum’s numbers are low because people are repeatedly told he has no chance.

    Take Gingrich out of the race and the contrast is there. True Conservative (as most polls show Santorum is though of) vs Moderate (Romney) the Conservative base vs Obama

    This race needs to have Gingrich gone and see the contrast. Newt cannot win the primary or the general. Why keep going. Numbers are showing us that Santorum CAN win the primary. That energizes the base which would be sorely needed in a general election

    Everyone needs to look at this differently. It’s not about Santorum staying in or out, its about Newt.

  • sethellis

    There’s no doubt that evangelical voters do not like Romney. The exit polls in South Carolina are very clear on this. However, correlation does not prove causation. Evangelical voters have plenty of other excuses not to vote for Romney. I don’t think we’ll ever have conclusive evidence. Perhaps some day another Mormon candidate will come along with a more conservative record, and then we’ll know for sure.

  • tercel

    I can’t judge a man’s heart. I can judge his actions. He seems to have changed. God has used many flawed characters in Bible history. David was a murderer and an adulterer. Jacob was a cheat and liar and a thief. Gideon hid in a well because he was a coward. Moses couldn’t speak publicly. Jonah disobeyed direct orders and ended up in the belly of a fish before God used him.

    I am NOT saying that I think Gingrich is ANY of these characters I’m just making the point that if your looking for perfection, you will not find it in any mortal.

    Gingrich can articulate conservatism, he knows how to fight back alley style like Obama certainly will be doing and he has proven to do big things before (taking over of the house by Republicans after 40+ years in the wilderness).

  • conservativeparrothead

    Even if he throws Newt an endorsement and Newt comes up with some title for him like heading up the Manufacturing Resoration Committee, much like he did with Rick Perry and his 10th Amendment and Herman Cain and Tax Reform, it may swing a little in Gingrich’s favor but not 100%.

    However, if they simply declared as running mates, that Santorum would indeed be a Gingrich running mate and that social issues would be addressed and family values, marriage, etc would be emphasized in a Gingrich-Santorum administration, then theyve got a chance.

    A simple act of leaving the race with some pat on the back endorsement isnt going to get it done.

  • http://lukos.com Ed54

    your position. For example, see the crosstabs on page 10 of the latest PPP Florida Poll. In that poll, the second choice of Santorum voters is a 50/50 split between Romney and Gingrich. In Florida at least, Santorum leaving the race would be a wash.

    I do question whether the opposite was ever “conventional wisdom”. To the extent that it was so on RedState, it highlights the dangers of this forum becoming an echo chamber.

  • Remington_Steele

    I agree that with Newt out it gets much more interesting and probably a closer race, but Santorum has a problem.. He is great on the attack, but he is the Sandman when it comes to explaining policy.

    His attacks are fun to listen, but when he talks solutions, I zone out and when I come back I’m wondering what he’s going on about. He definitely does not energize me when it comes to solutions and presentation of them.

  • sethellis

    Let’s be honest with ourselves here. The only reason anybody ever cared about Newt Gingrich was because they though he was a viable alternative to Mitt Romney. The only reason anybody ever cared about Rick Santorum was because they though he was a viable alternative to Newt Gingrich.

    Personally I’d rather have a nominee that is able to win on his own. It says something about the weakness of the candidate if they require everyone else dropping out to win. The RCP average has Romney tied with his anti-Romney opponents in Florida. I doubt these numbers hold up today, but it shows that being not-Romney is not enough to win.

    If someone is able to defeat Romney it won’t be because someone else dropped out. It will be because of the strength of that individual candidate.

  • circlegranch

    and his immigration positions are in direct contrast with the Church also. The Mormon faith has as staunch conservative family values and social positions as Evangelicals and Catholics.

    Mitt will not automatically win all the votes inside his church. Those that disdain his prior social positions will either stay home or hold out and see who else is left standing.

  • http://www.neoavatara.com/blog neoavatara

    These candidates so far are only getting moment because they are NOT Romney. Which is all well and good, but in the long run, they must have a greater audience.

    So far, Santorum has not come close to achieving that. Until he does, he is a nonissue.

  • Common_Cents

    in the Gingrich administration, thus holding on to much Santorum support.

    If Santorum drops, it is down to a 2 man race. No more dilly dallying. It will also draw out all those on the sidelines to start choosing a side. It’s a much different dynamic w/ 2 candidates as choices, vs 3. (Paul is in his own universe, having already colonized the moon in his mind).

    Although February would be tough for Gingrich, Santorum support would trigger more fundraising and support. Gingrich just has to hang on in Feb until the debates and southern/conservative states roll around in March.

  • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

    –no–text–

  • courdeleon02

    I see posters constantly saying he is prochoice. This is a complete falsehood. Romney was always pro life but at one time felt that this belief could not be imposed on those who did not have this religious belief or had secular view. Later he came to the view that unborn life needed to be protected and became even more prolife and now beileves that unborn life needs constitutional protection. Many people who have been at one time pro choice have converted to the prolife position. What matters is what he believes now. He also has Robert Bork on his staff and would support pro life judges to the Supreme Court of the United States. So stop the lying about his postion on this issue.

  • Common_Cents

  • bonnman

    nt

  • circlegranch

    conservative talker in Colorado Springs. Call in w/ questions. His supporters have flooded the air talking about his fiscal conservatism. EE’s discount of that needs wider distribution.

  • jack0001

    The man says he is pro-life now. Ronald Reagan once signed the worst pro-choice bill in american history as California gov, but yet became one of the greatest proponents for pro-life.
    Mitt sayshe will stop taxpayer abortions in the USA and Mexico right away.
    what more do you people want.

  • circlegranch

    Steele has argued with both Politico and this morning on MSNBC that Florida violated RNC rules by moving up their primary and thus, their delegates are not winner take all, but will be apportioned out to all candidates based on votes they win.

    Given the fact that Romney’s guy in FL is involved in redistricting Allen West out, its hard to imagine they won’t be able to march forward and get all 50 delegates into Romney’s column.

  • tyman

    Gingrich realizes what’s at stake and that giving up cedes ground to Obama.

    I’m not sure what Herbcain is doing…he strongly endorsed Newt, and now says that if Romney’s the nominee that’s okay???

    I wonder if Newt is rethinking Herb and putting him on the tax think tank.

    I still hope that for all the ground Willard gains, that conservatives will wake up and realize what a disaster he will be.

  • edintexas

    Pro-Life before he was Pro-Choice, And Pro-Choice before he was Pro-Life.

    “Romney was always pro life…” but “Later he came to the view that unborn life needed to be protected and became even more prolife…”.

    Uh huh.

  • In The Hook

    Romney basically left the laws regarding abortion untouched in Massachusetts, though he repeatedly stated that he is pro-life. In fact, in his veto of a bill that would have expanded contraception and abortion access, he lays out a pretty strong case for the right to life: http://www.boston.com/news/globe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2005/07/26/why_i_vetoed_contraception_bill/

    Was it weak tea that he says “this state is pro-choice, I wish it wasn’t, but because it is I’ll leave the status quo?” Yeah. He should have had more courage. But this wasn’t a John Kerry “I personally oppose abortion but I’ll sign more laws to increase it” statement. He’s come fully over to our side on this issue. He’s manned up on it. As a conservative, I think there are plenty of areas of Romney’s record with which to be uncomfortable but I don’t think this issue is one of them, especially since a decent majority in this nation is pro-life.

  • azaeroprof

    “Mitt isn’t pro-choice, he isn’t anti-choice, he is multiple choice.”

    All he’s doing here is trying to run away from any label for political expediency. Regardless of what you think personally about abortion, if you support a “woman’s right to choose” to have an abortion, you are pro-choice. Period.

    Should we really believe that, as proud as he was of his mom’s “courageous” pro-choice stand, that his claim today to be pro-life is genuine? Ehhhhh….I ain’t buyin’ it.

  • stumpy

    that so many voters will take anyone over him. I agree the non-Romneys are weak, but Mitt is weaker. Even with the front runner status, kid glove treatment, media bias, bigwig endorsements, 5+ years of campaining, very weak opposition and vicious attacks against anyone who surges, Romney still can’t close the deal. He win have to have everyone drop out except one opponent (and Paul) in order to win. His position is much weaker than McCain’s in 2008 against a weaker field.

    Mitt will get destroyed by Obama. Newt might, but him or Santorum would at least have a fighting chance.

  • Common_Cents

    Obama would fight for multiple choice format if in a debate w/ Gingrich.

    Romney is a largely empty vessel. It is so obvious the guy lacks genuine passion and conviction. He’ s being forced down Republican’s throats.

  • http://lukos.com Ed54

    nt

  • http://lukos.com Ed54

    1) Romney cannot beat Obama.
    2) Gingrich and Santorum cannot beat Romney.
    Ergo,
    3) Gingrich or Santorum can beat Obama.

  • BillC

    Santorum getting out will concentrate the conservative mind on whether they want a former liberal as their nominee.

    Also, it will give all of the non-Mitt voters one person to support. That will boost Newt in voters but, more importantly, it will concentrate financial support. I think there are a lot of people sitting on the sidelines waiting to donate to the anti-Romney. No point in wasting money until that person is chosen.

  • Common_Cents

    So he just appears to be a better candidate. The same goes for all the calls for some new fantasy candidate to sweep in. There are plenty of people that look good now, because they havent been vetted and attacked.

    Gee, just think if we got Haley Barbour? Letting murderers loose would have sunk him overnight.

    Gingrich is the most attacked, most vetted candidate. We need to stick with him.

    Our short attention span American Idol audience wants to flip flop between candidates when one gets attacked and looks bad.

    We are like on people on Let’s Make a Deal, when you are just tempted trade in box #2 to see what’s behind curtain #3 and end up with a goat.

    If we keep this crap up, we’ll have major voters remorse and have major regret over Santorum or Romney=McCain.

  • SG_Lominac

    my wife and I will vote for Rick Santorum in the Florida primary. He will lose. Romney will win and should he become our standard bearer, I want him to know that conservatives will always be nipping at his heels should he stray to far off the path.

  • tyman

    nt

  • http://www.timothy-bladel.com/ center77

    that he changed positions, and that is many positions. Romney may have been pro life, but he did not act like it. He once told a pro choice group they needed him to help change the political thinking of the gop to a more pro choice party.

  • Common_Cents

    nt

  • RichmondG30

    Clearly you don’t like Mitt. I, too, would have strongly preferred a real conservative.

    But Barack Obama version 2008 was a blank canvas on which millions of Americans painted their dreams for the country. Millions turned out to vote for the first black President.

    In 2012, he is 3/4 of the way through the most badly-failed Presidency in modern times, an economy in tatters, 10% (real) unemployment, housing still in free fall, an enormously unpopular healthcare bill with his name on it, government ownership of 2/3 of the domestic auto industry, a blind eye toward illegal immigration, and on, and on, and on.

    Mitt Romney, for all his flaws (and there are many) is a successful business executive who will take Barack v. 2012 to the woodshed. It won’t even be close, my friend.

  • Common_Cents

    That will engage in a 2 man race.

  • usedtobelib

    GOP voters and the general public?

  • usedtobelib

    pronouncements over the last few years (much less the last few decades) and see if you can make sense of his “consistency,”

    In fact, you might do the same with Santorum’s senate voting record and his pronouncements today.

  • usedtobelib

    media monger, the same friendly guy when his pathological needs are being met, the same vicious guy when his needs aren’t being met, the same narcissist he’s always been.

    Look, I know one can criticize any candidate and be right in that criticism a lot of the time, wrong some of the time, but Newt Gingrich is the same sick mind that is Bill Clinton, both men whose psychological characteristics rise to the level of pathologies.

  • tyman

    It would force a lot of people to put up or shut up.

  • tyman

    Oops…

  • tyman

    That’s what I get for posting while eating.

  • sethellis

    He hasn’t been vetted. You have to keep in mind that I am a Romney supporter. I don’t think either can beat Romney, and would love for one to drop out so that there’s no more excuses left. I don’t want anyone saying after the convention that things would have been different if only. I want the nomination to be as convincing as possible.

    My point is simply that you fracture the anti-Romney vote by introducing an anti-Newt vote. Probably only half of Santorum voters will break for Newt. I bet almost all of Newt’s supporters would go to Santorum if Newt dropped out. Plus Santorum is the only one with a proven ability to exploit Romney’s healthcare weakness. I don’t think either can stop Romney at this point, but I think Santorum stands a better chance.

  • Scope

    prior to April 1 must award their delegates proportionally. The penalty to Fla., for moving their primary up, was to cut their delegate number in half.

  • http://teapartisan.wordpress.com Loren Heal

    I will not vote for Mitt Romney in the primary, nor at the convention.

    I will, of course, support our nominee. Either Newt or Romney would make doing so difficult in various ways, even with many people who are already set against Obama.

  • carolynr

    nt

  • carolynr

    Ron Paul. While everyone is focusing on these two…Paul is picking up delegates…which makes this brokered convention more plausible.

  • Scope

    Republican Detailed Delegate Allocation. All primaries and caucuses prior to April 1, 2012 will be required to proportionally allocate their delegates.

  • tyman

    Based on what I read, Florida HAD 99 delegates.

    It appears that Steele doesn’t know what he’s talking about.

  • clowngirl

    If Mitt felt threatened by Rick, every non-conservative position Rick Santorum has ever taken (and there are many) would be front and center and endlessly exaggerated.

    Charges like “one of the 10 most corrupt Senators” that Ron Paul quoted from some leftist journalist would be given increasing credence. — the whole “resigned in disgrace” bogus rhetoric Romney’s using against Gingrich could easily be adapted to “disgraced and soundly defeated” with Santorum’s landslide defeat portrayed as a referendum on his supposed corruption and lack of principle. He’d be portrayed as the consummate Washington insider.

    In short he would face the same scorched earth negative campaigning as Newt is now, and a lot of it would stick because the real Santorum isn’t really the consistent firebrand conservative he’s trying to portray himself as now and there would be some real disillusionment.

    It would wound him fatally while Newt will most likely survive because while Newt is seen as flawed, but effective and exciting and with a history of huge acheivements— Rick Santorum’s appeal is the image of a plain, ordinary seeming guy – who isn’t flashy or especially potent but has a lot of integrity — the sort of guy who isn’t really a politician — somebody who fights for what he believes and doesn’t really play the game.

    But in truth — Santorum is very much a politician, plenty willing to compromise on a large number of issues, not (overall) even AS conservative as Gingrich.- much less more.

    In short Rick Santorum’s current appeal is based largely on an illusion that he can’t maintain — Newt’s appeal is real – with people backing him for who he really is. He’s suffering now NOT because of his baggage but because of a massive smear campaign that Romney and his allies won’t be able to get away with for long.

  • carolynr

    This has been bothering me for quite some time. Right now I am watching Obama allowing all Illegals to cross the border without any consequence. Many of them have relatives that vote. Who do you think they will vote for?

    This does not even take into account…ballot fraud that will certainly go on and an AG that will do nothing about it.

    Romney, it appears has the support of Latinos in FL. Why? Did he “buy” the votes. Interesting question. Anyone know what Romney said to get Latinos behind him.

    BTW…right now…Obama has 72% favorability with Latinos. So..with this split amongst the Republicans…some of whom will stay home…how are we going to beat Obama?

  • azaeroprof

    are about pro-life vs pro-choice. I believe Santorum has been completely consistent, both in his pronouncements and particularly in his life choices, on this. I haven’t followed Gingrich’s position on life, but given that he claims to have had a religious conversion, I wouldn’t be surprised if his position had changed.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    And per your own source, Florida’s rules say all at-large delegates are WTA, and because of the delegate penalty, all FL delegates are WTA this time.

    And guess who’s appointing who Florida’s delegates are: Hint, not the RNC.

  • clowngirl

    and his numbers have suffered as a result.

    I’ve noticed a tendency that anytime Newt is temporarily down a bit — his level of appeal and such is treated (by many) and projections are made off of it as though it were a constant with no regard for his potential to move those numbers or even to the higher ceiling he’s already demonstrated.

    Meanwhile, when Romney is down it’s discussed as a temporary blip that will soon be corrected.

    Romney is routinely discussed as the national frontrunner (by some in the media) even when — by any normal measure — he hasn’t been.

    For example Romney is referred to as the front runner now when Newt is either ahead or tied in national polls — and even several days ago when Newt was 9 points ahead in national polls.

    I’m sure the journalists who describe Romney as the national frontrunner even when he is, in fact, well behind in national polls — have some rationale to justify it, but from my POV it’s just dishonest.

  • bluerose75

    Obama will kick the backside of the liberal Mitt. It is so funny how dumb Romney supporters truly are. Typical moderate mush! No one has unleashed on Romney they way they have on Newt. Right now, just like McCain in 2008, the MSM media and others have keep out, promoting a Mitt nomination with the electability stance, just hoping as we did in 2008, to nominate a guaranteed loser!

    If and once this tin suit is nominated the MSM will go viral on him just like they did on McCain. The difference is McCain had some ground to stand on. Mitt will not…I can see night after night on ABC, NBC, CNN, CBS and others investigations about Mitt’s business dealings, medicare fraud, flip flopping, sound bites…this is me now but hear he was then, his dishonesty, his abortion stance, his Romneycare….oh my god it will be so brutal. Obama has a billion dollars and the MSM will work this tin suit over. I have to admit part of me will enjoy see Romney taking through the ringer. He so deserves it for the way he has run the campaign.

    It is going to be hilarious when you see these litte Romney supporters crumble under the assault of the MSM and Obama’s billion. So many conservatives will sit on the sidelines and watch with told you so!! And they will. So all of you Romney supporters get ready because you are in for one nasty ride.

    I hope many conservatives save the Obama ads against Romney and all the investigative stories the MSM will run against him. We can run them for all his supporters the day after he is beaten badly in Nov!!!

    I can see his face on a IHOP billboard…I was for this then but I am for that now…and a BIG OLE PANCAKE in the BACK…ROMNEY HOME OF THE FLIP FLOPPER….LOL!!

    Anyone that thinks independents will back hime after trust issues are just ignorant. They all think Obama cannot run on his record…neither can Romney. Difference is Obama has a base that will support him no matter what..Romney does not….Trust and lying will do Romney in with Independents. Yes Obama is a horrible President but Romney is just not the man to contrast him.

    Conservatives I say this support your local conservative Congressman or woman. Same for your Senators. Romney does not stand a chance in China to beat Obama!

  • http://punditpawn.wordpress.com punditpawn

    With websites like this helping to destroy our candidates and write Obama’s fall campaign commercials for free, Obama needs to do nothing.

    Romney running as a conservative democrat under the ‘Republican’ affinity is disgusting. He’s already proven Obama will beat him last cycle… what has changed since his last run? Nada.

    Besides, Republicans will step in the entitlement quicksand here shortly, trying to offset their incompetence to cut or even control costs let alone force the Senate to produce a toxic budget they are required by law to do.

    History is going to be very unkind to GOP leadership who accidentally slid into power because of the Tea party they keep pi$$ing on.

    I need to go hurl.

  • bluerose75

    If that is the best you have seen..head to eye doctor buddy because after Romney gets his clocked cleaned all the tears in your eyes will corrupt the lenses!! Romney has not one ounce of a core and his “business executive” credentials will fall compared to his flip floppjng, lying, who am I really, no core, no fundamental principles and lack of enthusiasm. Obama will fire up his base…Mitt has lready ruined his chances with conservatives. Where else will Mitt get support? Boy buddy when the MSM goes viral on him and all ads he will have to face from Obama…yeah keep telling everyone Obama has a record problem with a flip flopper from liberalville that took a plane trip to conservatism for political opportunism…yeah that will convert Independents!

  • Scope

    on CNN this morning, I believe Paul is the second highest in delegates so far. He is accumulating delegates with his 2nd and third place finishes. I have no doubt he will continue to gain delegates. There are still a lot of primaries before April 1, and the delegates will be proportionally delegated until then. Paul will not drop out, and he plausibly can be the candidate to take this to the convention. Look how many states have him in at least third place in current polling. Paul will not be the nominee, but he just may be the one to decide the nominee at the convention. Wasn’t the proportional delegate count decision done to drag the primaries out, and to not decide the nominee by the time they get to Fla.?

  • http://pocketchangeproductions.net/ anotherindyfilmguy

    Newt could do an awesome job stumping for Santorum and crushing Romney. The other way around, not so much. In my opinion the people who go for Santorum over Newt aren’t as likely to fully go for Newt as the other way around could work out.

  • trickamsterdam

    You start off by complaining that people are destroying our candidates and writing Obama’s ads for him….and then destroy our candidates and leadership and write Obama’s ads for him..

    Not that anything you said about Romney or R Leadership was wrong of course. You were right on the money.

    Running a Wall St parasite like Romney in this economic and political environment is somewhat akin to trying to get a black man elected governor of Alabama in 1955. Actually, InTrade would probably sell more shares for the black dude than it will for Romney.

    It’s good you bring up Leadership, because that’s what all this “fall in line behind Romney” nonsense is about…they think he’s so bland he won’t affect House and Senate races.

    Except who cares if we have the House and Senate if Dems just filibuster everything or the President vetos it? We need the White House to control spending and appoint Justices! But R Leadership doesn’t need it to preserve their narcissistic and perverse (wide stances) lifestyles. So much spending goes up automatically, if you don’t have the WhiteHouse you might as well forget about controlling it.

    Except the real truth is: R Leadership wants their turn w/ the money. So, actually…they kinda want to spend. I think I’ll “hurl” too. Seems as logical a thing to do as anything else.

    Anyway, this post gives me the chance to say again, that Romney’s numbers are only superior against Obama because he hasn’t been pounded w/ negative ads like Newt…once Obama/Axelrod get going w/ that billion, they’ll light him up like a roman candle:

    BROKERED.CONVENTION.NOW.OR.OBAMA.AGAIN.SOON.

  • soothsayer14

    A Santorum candidacy would have independents and young people fleeing Obama in droves. His extreme views on gays and abortion would play right into Obama’s wheelhouse.

    Santorum would do well with the Evangelicals but they are a small but important piece of the total electorate.

    The number of Evangelicals who would vote for Santorum, but would stay home if Romney was the nominee is dwarfed by the number of young people, Independents and conservative Democrats who would be put off by his extreme social views.

  • soothsayer14

    As much as conservatives like to consider themselves rulers of the moral high ground.

    Do you really want to give this issue away for the foreseeable future? With the entire GOP machine having to rally behind Newt, it would be hypocrisy on a legendary scale to then feign shock and disgust the next time a Democrat steps on their crank on the moral issue.

    Then again, neither political party seems to have many qualms about hypocrisy so maybe it won’t matter.

  • BillC

    Maybe Rand as the VP.

  • soothsayer14

    The Paul’s have no interest in playing second fiddle to a big government globalist like Newt Gingrich.

  • BillC

    then they aren’t going to get any where with < 20% of the delegates.

  • soothsayer14

    I was speaking specifically about either of them being VP.

    Ron Paul will of course try and leverage his delegates to influence the platform.

  • RichmondG30

    Dead wrong though.

    You may sit home on your a$$ for spite because your guy didn’t win and some Redstaters may sit home too. That’s inevitable.

    My guy didn’t win either, but I am not willing to throw a temper tantrum and help Obama get four more years.

    I predict that once all the yelling and screaming and name-calling is over, most of us will do whatever is necessary to eliminate the Obama scourge from the nation.

    One of us will be wrong. Let’s talk in November.

  • lineholder

    is that there just aren’t many Conservatives who are going to be all that enthusiastic about putting boots on the ground for Romney. I’d love to tell you otherwise, but it would be a bold-faced lie if I did.

    Pull the lever for him? Sure. Boots on the ground….uhhmm, seeing as how most of us have serious doubts about Romney on so many different points, it just looks like investing our dollars, time, energy and efforts into down-ticket races is the best choice to make.

    That was the point of that rant.

  • Scope

    Sorry for the threadjack, but, healthcare seems to be a big point of interest to you. What are your thoughts on HMO’s? Here is a great article on when “managed care” really began. It was a Ted Kennedy dream, as he saw it as the beginning to a federal government takeover of the medical care industry, aka “socialized medicine.” I seriously doubt that many even think back that far, and seem to miss the fact that HMO’s were the start of it all. You may have talked about this before, and, if so I apologize for missing it. Again, since this seems to be an area of much interest to you, I’d love your take on it, and maybe a diary addressing something that blows right over the heads of the masses. Seems that the HMO’s were the baby version of Obamacare. Thanks.

  • greyeagle

    The only reason Santorum was in the race was to take votes from either Perry and when he dropped out, it became Newt. This left a clear path for Romney. After all, Romney has essentially been running for 7 years.

  • stumpy

    One, Mitt can’t outspend Obama 5:1.

    Two, the media won’t be on his side anymore.

    Three, a longer focus on Florida will give Obama plenty of time to attack Romney on flip flopping, being rich, paying low taxes, being a stooge of Wall Street, classwarfare, etc. These attacks are not fair, but will be made all the same.

    Four, the issues and electorate change. What hurts and helps each candidate changes as the focus goes toward independents and moderates, uninformed squishies.

    Five, the conservative vote is split two ways, plus a little for Paul.

    Sixth, and maybe the most important, electability won’t matter. Polls show most people voting for Mitt primarily did so because they think he has the best shot at beating Obama. Once he is the nominee, the primary reason for his support is worthless in gaining additional votes.

    I give Mitt and Newt both slim chances to beat Obama. However, I see nothing Mitt can do to increase his chances. Newt could thrash Obama in a debate or implore. If he stays stable, he has a good shot to beat Obama. If he implored, less. I would rather take a better shot at the win, even if it is more risky. Safe play gives us Dole and McCain, Mitt’s buddies.

  • stumpy

    Dern Android autocorrection.

  • stumpy

    I am afraid I will be. I just have no faith in the ignorant voters. So many people just don’t pay one lick of attention. They can tell you every detail about the Kardashians, but nothing about Obama. They will say, I don’t like that rich guy and vote for Obama.

    I see these folks all the time and they vote. It counts just as much we yours and mine, more if ACORN gets involved.

    I just still can’t believe these are our choices. I know tug bench wad bare after Bush, but this is terrible. Does anyone really think any.of the candidates are great? Looks like we have a good young bench that will be ready in a few more ysr

  • lineholder

    was one of the earliest building blocks moving towards a socialized health care model, but it wasn’t the first. The first was implementation of Medicare and Medicaid via the Social Security Act in 1965, followed by CHAMPVA for the military a few years later (also in 1973). They went after bits and pieces of our population rather than trying to achieve it all in one fell swoop.

    At the time that HMO Assistance Act was passed, it was presented as being entirely voluntary to private health insurance companies. They had requirements to meet in order to qualify for the loans and grants the government provided to get a HMO up and running, but it wasn’t mandated on them. But there were enough private health insurance companies that agreed to the requirements to yield a lot of what we currently see in health care, such as PPOs, EPOs, IPAs, etc. All of those are models that were considered “acceptable” under the HMO Assistance Act.

    The left has been at this for almost 50 years. The ultimate goal of achieving a socialized health care system has driven them every inch of the way. I’m not sure people understand that part of it…just how driven they are on this.

    Thank you for the link. I’ll check out the article tomorrow.

  • lineholder

    I just read through the first part of it, and truthfully, it includes some information that I had not learned and was not aware of. (Chalk that one up to textbook revision of history, I guess) I’ve bookmarked it for future reference. Thank you again!!!

  • BillC

    I think they should.

  • carolynr

    that’s why the numbers are not working.