He’s been dead. Romney (and 2 ex wives that he cheated on) killed him in Iowa.

Yeah yeah he won South Carolina, I know. But South Carolina is still in the confederacy, they’ll vote for a dead guy before they’ll vote for a Yankee!

Newt’s dead, let his soul give up the ghost.

Let’s all take a moment to sit back and remember the former speaker for all the great things he did for America in his younger days. Newt was a great American, a great visionary for America. His “Contract for America” was a great awakening for a party that never seized momentum from the Reagan Revolution.

Newt was a great man, destroyed by his own self inflicted wounds. We should remember him fondly.

Thank you Newt for your great service to America. Now step aside and let Santorum finish Romney off and save us from Obama!!!

In 2000, Democrats made up 17% of the Michigan primary. In 2008 Democrats made up over 7% of the electorate. 9% in exit polling is within the margin of error for 7%. This number is not outside the norm for an open primary and Republicans will certainly need more 10% of the Democratic vote in November if they hope to win Michigan.

In addition, Romney actually won the liberal/moderate segment of the population, where the Democratic vote would be.

Last, Santorum won overwhelmingly in the Republican part of the state. Romney’s entire margin of victory came from Orange county, which happens to be the biggest Democratic haven in the state.

Romney won by less than 3% period.

Because like everyone else in the political class, he misread the tea leaves.

When he pulled out Santorum’s Iowa win seemed like a fluke and SC had the attention. Perry saw Newt winning in South Carolina and being the best chance to take Romney down.

He was wrong and if he had it to do over again (without looking stupid) he would most likely stay neutral or support Santorum.

If you have looked at an electoral map, you’ll know Romney is not electable.

To win the White House you have to have a roadmap to 270.

The only McCain ’08 state in play is Missouri. Santorum definitely wins Missouri, Romney may not. But let’s assume he does and let’s assume he takes Indiana (Santorum definitely wins there). That means we have 191 of 270.

Santorum’s path is working class white socially conservative Democrats (a demographic unfavorable to Obama, but not reachable by Romney). Those voters are in NC, VA, PA, OH and IA, all considered tossups. That gives Santorum 72 tossup delegates and 263 EVs.

He needs to find 7 more from either unfavorable tossups or lean blue states. Wisconsin (10) and Minnesota (10) both have the demographics favorable to Santorum’s coalition. That gives him the potential of 283 EVs without playing in Florida, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico or New Hampshire. Still he should be competitive in Florida and Colorado giving him the potential for 321 EVs.

Romney’s path is much different. He’s going to have to lean heavily on Independent and upper class voters (Obama’s strongest class). Those voters are in Florida, Colorado, New Hampshire and Nevada among tossup states. That gives Romney 48 tossup delegates and 239 EVs

He needs to find 31 EVs from unfavorable tossup states or lean blue states. He could be expected to find support maybe in Maine and New Mexico, 9 total delegates and maybe Minnesota for 10 more but that still leaves him a dozen short, meaning he needs a Michigan or Massachusetts and some help.

In other words, it’s a whole lot easier to construct a Santorum map than a Romney map.

But he stuck the shotgun in his own mouth and blew his own head off. He’s deade under the Dan Quayle rule.

Bobby Jindal is not ready for prime time.

There are three and ONLY THREE with the package capable of riding to the rescue now and two of them are sketchy.

Jeb Bush and Haley Barbour have the national networks available to raise the money and build the organization capable of succeeding.

Bush would really have to overcome his last name and I don’t know that it’s possible to do so. Barbour was a very divisive Republican leader of the gingrich era. He may have some favorability issues with Independents.

The only other contender is Jim Demint. His teaparty cred could carry him a long way.

Past that, there’s no one left to fly the plane.

I didn’t attribute Perry’s failure in Iowa to anything.

I said the political class believed Santorum’s win in Iowa was a fluke. They didn’t believe his campaign had any staying power. So when Perry’s path to the nomination disappeared it appeared to him, his campaign staff and various other pundits that it was going to be a 2 man race between Gingrich and Romney. And of course Perry would choose Gingrich.

Although in Iowa I think Perry, to quote a good friend of mine from Iowa, “stepped on his junk” in the early debates and that’s why he lost Iowa.

I was a big time Perry supporter, very excited when he entered the race. I thought he had all the pieces. I still like his record and his politics. But he made me wince as a candidate.

I hear Santorum say things he shouldn’t. But he doesn’t back away from them and he capably explains himself. Perry has too many “duh” moments.

Seems to me that both Perry and Santorum are real, genuine and likable, but Santorum is more intelligent.

Most of us guys have overlooked Newt’s past. Women, not so much. That is one subject that they absolutely don’t condone.

We hear a lot about how women weren’t bothered by Bill Clinton’s escapades, but there’s a difference in the mind of women. Hillary Clinton forgave him. Had Bill Clinton run for reelection in 2000 having divorced Hillary Clinton and married Monica Lewinsky he would have lost in a Mondalesque landslide even with a surplus budget and 4% unemployment.

Girlfriend’s opinion of Newt Gingrich = NOT GOOD

She’d vote for him against Obama and most likely against Romney (she hates Romney). But overall she hates Gingrich with the passion of a woman scorned.

Gingrich has long made the argument that if Santorum got out he could consolidate conservatives, but I honestly don’t think he can.

I would go to Gingrich. She would go to Ron Paul. I think (and here I go thinking for women again) most female Santorum supporters would go to Romney.

Romney outspent him 2:1. How much more did Ron Paul invest? His entire buy in Michigan was all anti-Santorum.

Florida is also a much bigger state than Michigan in terms of cost. Michigan has 1 major metro market, Florida has 6. It takes a lot less money to saturate the market.

Romney has been running for President for 6 years. He had 30% soft support a year ago and he still has 30% soft support.

He has a finance network 6 years in the making. It’s the equivalent of a sitting Senator vs. a Challenger campaign. The incumbent is always going to have more money and a better network.

In the last month Santorum HAS matched Romney in fundraising (113,000 donors in February). Rumor has it that Romney may be reaching into his own pocket for funding after Super Tuesday as his sources are drying up/tapped out. He’ll be relying more and more on his Super Pac. Santorum meanwhile is moving away from Super Pac funding.

It is not unusual in Presidential politics for up and coming candidates to pick and choose battles that suit their strengths at least initially. That’s about to change with Super Tuesday.

Romney’s going to finish 3rd in Georgia, Oklahoma and Tennessee. Santorum is likely to win 6 of 11 on Super Tuesday. He’s getting stronger. And after Super Tuesday, he will be a national candidate.

By the way, Romney’s becoming regional as well. He’s contesting Ohio, but that’s about it. He won’t compete in the south or the caucus states in the west. That’s a real sign of weakness for a 6 yr old fully developed campaign.