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EDITOR OF REDSTATE

The Horserace for March 2, 2012

By: Erick Erickson (Diary)  |  March 2nd, 2012 at 11:35 AM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

The reality is I think conservative activists are starting to come to terms with Mitt Romney. His national and state polling is starting to trend up.

More and more I hear conservative activists tell me that while they are not sold on Romney and he has not closed the deal, Gingrich and Santorum have not closed the deal either. The great volume of undecided voters who still decide to participate typically will go with the frontrunner and right now that is Mitt Romney.

Santorum and Gingrich have the opportunity to change the reality in the next week, but it is their last major opportunity. Right now, it all comes down to Ohio — a must win state for the three.

Today, in a pre-Super Tuesday horserace, let’s explore where we are headed.

Newt Gingrich will win Georgia. It is not a question of if, but by how much. Mitt Romney will come in third. But Georgia is shaping up to be Gingrich’s only win on Super Tuesday. Rick Santorum is probably going to take Tennessee and Oklahoma, though Gingrich will probably come in second in Oklahoma.

Those would be bad headlines for Mitt Romney, except he just might take Vermont, Massachusetts, and will take Virginia. That Ron Paul has not tried to consolidate anti-Romney voters in Virginia suggests to me he is now more spoiler than candidate. The Paul strategy has not turned out as planned and he will not be the nominee.

Santorum needs Ohio. Denying Romney Ohio would be a psychological boost for Santorum’s candidacy and help Santorum against Gingrich headed into the week after Super Tuesday when Mississippi and Alabama are up for grabs — states Romney probably will not win.

And yes, the word “probably” is intentional in all these scenarios because the race remains that fluid.

The Romney campaign has discovered if it concentrates its resources in particular states and drives up their spending ratio to 5 to 1, they will win. It is a strategy that will not work in the general election, but is working effectively for him now, though driving up his negatives.

Santorum and Gingrich will have a hard time matching Romney in Ohio, though Santorum continues to resonate with blue collar workers. His message, however, needs to change. He spent several weeks talking about social issues and not talking about jobs, which is the key topic. Following jobs and the economy, government spending is a top concern of voters.

Santorum has pivoted to talking about that topic, which suggests he gets why he underperformed in Michigan.

The Romney campaign, however, is still in the driver’s seat. Both with money and rising national polling, Santorum and Gingrich both in the race are starting to keep consolidation from happening against Mitt Romney and, consequently, voters are starting to get desperate and are starting to consolidate for Romney.

Republican leaders should be worried, though, that in a Republican primary the front runner is still having this much difficulty in Republican states winning Republican voters. Mitt Romney may be the first Republican nominee in a very long time to win the nomination while losing the South. That signals trouble for him in the general election as he spends time rallying the base to him when he needs to rally independents who are right now turning on him.

The Romney campaign may gamble that the base will vote for him in November. They’re probably right. But will they go door to door, talk positively about him, defend him, and give him money? That’s more difficult to answer.

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COMMENTS

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  • clowngirl

    With Newt in the race, Santorum is ahead by 2 in Ohio. With Newt out of the race — in a hypothetical Romney/Santorum head to head – the 2 were tied.

    That means in this particular case, it appears that Newt dropping out would actually benefit Romney.

    That suggests that the conventional wisdom about non-Romney’s taking votes from each other may no longer hold true. At least with regard to Newt taking votes from Santorum. ( I didn’t see, and I don’t think they did, a head to head in Ohio with Gingrich/Romney)

  • jamesm

    My vote is against Obama.

    Many of his actions are indefensible.

  • clintonformccain

    Romney has already won Florida and is likely to win overwhelmingly in Virginia. He lost SC and will probably lose to a second-tier favorite son candidate in GA. At least so far, it hardly looks like a overwhelming beating in the South.

    If national Republicans tailored their pitch to South Carolina, they would never win a national election. South Carolina is arguably one of the two or three most conservative Republican states in the country. It’s not a good bell weather state for national positioning. I would argue that states like Virginia, Florida, and Ohio are more of the sweet spot nationally. And, indeed, they are the electoral college swing states that determine presidential elections.

  • colonelflagg

    “The Romney campaign may gamble that the base will vote for him in November. They?re probably right.”

    Not this activist. I’m writing in for President or voting Constitution Party if the elites foist Myth upon us. I won’t die by degrees.

  • acat

    It’s taken quite a lot of practicing in the mirror, though.

    Mew

  • drivlikejehu

    I think Erick and others are making too much out of Romney’s issues in the primary. Some of them are real problems while others do not really pertain to the general election.

    The biggest negative is definitely enthusiasm. But the desire to defeat Obama will be a big help in that regard; look for instance at strong Democratic energy in 2004 for an objectively terrible candidate. The latest Gallup poll shows a GOP enthusiasm edge and that will increase once the party is unified behind a nominee (even though that nominee will be far from perfect).

    As Barone has pointed out, Romney does have a potentially crucial strength in major suburban areas. The rural areas he loses to Santorum or Gingrich will obviously go overwhelmingly for him in the general. Urban areas are Obama’s no matter what. But a decent performance in heavily populated suburbs would doom Obama, and I think Romney is reasonably well positioned to do it.

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

    on Super Tuesday here in Atlanta, for Mitt Romney, so disgusted is she with Obama’s ongoing Depression. Mugged by reality…

  • westcoastpatriette

    Mew

  • http://www.timothy-bladel.com/ center77

    else. One poll in one state is not conclusive enough to say Newt is helping Santorum. I wonder if there is a reasonable path for newt anymore.

  • http://www.timothy-bladel.com/ center77

    because I am wondering why you are seeing this. I’ve been told by liberals they like Romney because they know he is lying about being conservative. They understand Romney has shunned conservatism, and would likely do so again if elected president.

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

    nt

  • jon11

    i don’t think he’s going to have a lot more money than mitt in the general. Not from what I’m reading.

    Mitt isn’t strong in the south but i think he’ll exceed expectations.

    And lets face it, my state, tennessee, and our 11 electoral votes (i think we still have 11) are going for the republican nominee regardless of who it is. Thats going to be true for the vast majority of southern states.

    I think he will do well. I don’t think he will do well, i know he will. It will be a nail biter election.

    Romeny may not be very inspiring but fortunately we have a president in barrack obama who is VERY inspiring…He inspires people to get out and vote against him.

    Romney is no reagan. but he’s smart, extremely competent, extremely capable and frankly, as RepairMan Jack noted after michigan…he’s proven to be pretty damn tough to boot.

  • Whacker77

    Mitt Romney will be the most unliked nominee in modern Republican politics, but he will likely be the nominee because of the pathetic nature of his opponents. A moderately skilled poltician could have defeated Romney, but there were no moderately skilled candidates who ran.

    The haplessness of the anti-Romney’s was best shown in Michigan and now in Virginia. If the anti-Romney’s really believe this is a delegate race, why didn’t Newt encourage his voters to tactically vote for Santorum in Michigan? His 60000 votes would have put Santorum over the top and made Romney a dead duck.

    The same can be said for the state of affairs in Virginia. If Santorum and Gingrich want to see this fight continue, why haven’t they encouraged their voters to vote for Paul there and deny Romney a win? Why aren’t these candidates, if they believe this all about delegates, encouraging tactial voting?

    Super Tuesday is our last chance, barring a scandal, to derail the surefire general election loss Romney will produce in the Fall. To be fair, I don’t think Santorum or Newt should be the nominee either, but a loss by Romney in Ohio could be enough to make one last effort to get a real candidate in the race.

    I know the white knight option is unlikely, but we must explore every possibility before we consign ourselves to an unelectable, negative campaigner like Romney.

  • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

    I will be voting for Romney, so it’s not just one state.

  • clintonformccain

    …how strong any Republican nominee would be. We have to see a head to head match-up on the campaign trail with the Democrat to find out.

    Without regard to Romney’s specific individual strengths or weaknessess, he is positioned to do well in a general election. Kind of squishy right center. Not threatening to swing voters, focusing his pitch on competent executive skills and the economy. That appeals to the center of electorate, that feels increasingly abandoned by both parties.

    It’s kind of ironic. With the supposed strength of the tea party and the backlash against the establishment, most centrist Republicans stayed out of the race, figuring they had no prayer of getting the nomination. But, the abject failure of the conservative wing to attract a serious candidate into the race has left the door open for a Northeast squish Republican to get the nomination. Good for the general, but causing mass gnashing of teeth in the base – currently manifested by extreme Romney Derangement Syndrome.

  • filobeddoe

    but never for Romney. I will not vote for him. My wife will not vote for him. Both my parents have said they wont vote for him. None of us are voting for Obama. I will write in.

    I wont vote for him because Romney is not a Republican, forget conservative. Republicans dont pass Romneycare, they dont say they are going to raise the minimum wage, they dont describe themselves as “severely” conservative. Four more years of Obama? Perhaps. But I know Bush gave us No Child Left Behind, more drug spending, budget deficits. (Nixon gave us the EPA). Pseudo Republicans destroy the brand.

    I certainly dont speak for all conservatives. But how many others will do the same. Can Romney afford to lose us?

  • http://www.erickerickson.org Erick Erickson

    The Northern Florida counties, which are demographically more associated with the South than Southern Florida when to Gingrich.

    Gingrich and Santorum are not on the ballot in Virginia.

    South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas, Tennessee, North Carolina? Things don’t look good for Romney in those states right now.

  • filobeddoe

    Because you dont vote for the nominee, you are not the base? The base is conservatives who will normally turn out to vote Republican. If you put up a candidate who is questionably a Republican, forget conservative, then you have thumbed your nose at the base. Dont expect us to vote for him.

    Think of it this way, if you repeatedly offer your customers steak and you change it to garlic, is it the customer who has changed or the seller?

  • http://www.gmsplace.com/ civil truth

    Realizing that the entire town has been bombed out to rubble and there’s only one person left standing.

    Bombed into submission. No outcome will be good for conservatism, only the least of evils.

    On the silver lining department, the conservative movement will have to rebuild from the foundation up, which will be healthier in the long-run – if we survive long enough to get to the “long-run”.

    Big “if”.

  • okpensfan

    There’s been so much focus on whether base GOP voters would eventually vote Romney or stay home, that the larger issue has been overlooked.

    It isn’t enough to just convince reluctant conservatives to hold their nose and pull the lever. It takes volunteers, donors, footsoldiers to GOTV and get it done. How can you be electable if if your base will elect you only grudgingly? How do you draw volunteers from a base (which we all know are necessary to push a guy over the top) who only is voting for you because you are “better than nothing”? I’m not convinced that the primary results to date – Romney’s inability to decisively “close the deal” so far – don’t suggest that this is already an issue.

  • ardendulou

    I don’t see any group going out for him. I hope he can get his statist Republicans to walk for him if he wants to win.

  • conservativeparrothead

    He just doesnt appeal to a majority of Americans.

    In the Republican Primary, he has a tough time with the Conservative base because of his past political positions, and some of those along with his religion (LDS) present challenges with the religous conservatives of the party.

    Then when you get to the general election, Im not sure he appeals much to the people who will swing this election, how does he relate to them? He doesnt seem like a guys guy? He doesnt really seem to appeal much to blue collar hard working folks or nor does he do much to pry the moderate suburbanites…what is his narrative, how does he take his case to the American people, what is his case?

    For me, Newt has been the guy all along and I think his problems in the primary are not problems in the general: Once supporting an individual mandate, sitting on couch with Pelosi, Freddie Mac, etc… I think those are things which play a gotcha game in the Republican primary and somehow people play a litmus test on Conservatism, but in the general I think he would have a very good time striking a tone that would resognate with a lot of the working class Americans in this country, he has done it before, he can do it again.

    Unfortunately, Rick Santorum, who I like a lot as well I think would have more general election issues than Mitt because he would be painted as too extreme on social issues and unfortunately sometimes they are important to the moderates, especially women in the burbs.

  • azaeroprof

    The Romney campaign may gamble that the base will vote for him in November. They?re probably right. But will they go door to door, talk positively about him, defend him, and give him money?

    No, no, no, and no. I am a PC and an elected county party official. I will do those things because it’s my job.

    I interact and discuss politics with a lot of conservative people through the party, my friendships, and my baptist church. Almost unanimously, the people I talk to are not just unhappy, but disgusted, with the idea of a Romney nomination. And I live in a state (AZ) which just voted almost 2:1 for Romney in our primary.

    Admittedly, none of these people I refer to will vote for Obama. But opposition to Obama, with zero or negative energy on our side, will not be enough. Not.nearly.enough.

  • tnguy

    …Obama could lose in the general, to any of the 3 left standing.

    The bad news is that Romney will further soil, perhaps irrevocably, the republican brand name. Things are about to get bad, very bad, and Romney’s solution will be generally more of the same. More of what GWB did.

    Conservatives continue to fiddle while America burns.

  • rightland1111

    and it would take a lot of convincing. Oh boy…would it ever. Of all of the remaining candidates, I like Gingrich the best. While he does go off the reservation once in a while…the man has a warehouse of ideas…and ideas we need because the old methods no longer work. Again…the old methods no longer work.

    It is obvious that the Party wants Romney. Why…they get to keep taking and we get to keep giving…if that is what you want to call it. Obama was Romney because he is the perfect candidate to illustrate his “redistribution” argument. He’s already has his OWS structured and with WILLARD’S stuttering during debates…that ought to put the icing on the cake for the sheeples. What was it that Obama said just today…the GOP has provided him “fodder” for his campaign….and the fodder is all about Romney.

    Someone with some sway who is not an “insider” needs to get Gingrich and Santorum in a room together and state…Gingrich on top, Santorum VP. Doc had said something to the effect that Gingrich was not the most physically fit person (I am being kind here). However…he has enough BRAIN power to put policies into place that can help us out of this mess. Also, Gingrich being from the South would cement that vote and Santorum would (I hope) bring in the NE.

    I have it on good authority that Jeb wants in the 2016 race…and with all this press about him…it’s realistic. NO MORE PROGRESSIVES.
    Anyway…for what it is worth…this is the only way I see that we can take Romney down at this point…otherwise…the GOP has picked the candidate once again.

  • clintonformccain

    Why is that?

    I would think that being strong in the South has to start with actually getting on the ballots of all the southern states — something Romney’s campaign was able to do. It’s pretty basic stuff from a “strong” campaign, certainly stronger than Gingrich or Santorum.

  • haners

    If you’re in OH, PA or FL, Romney can’t afford to lose you.

    If you’re in TX, AL, MS, GA, TN, OK, then Romney can probably afford to lose quite a few of you.

    But really? Santorum is just as much a pseudo-Republican as Romney. He just wears his religion on his sleeves more.

  • Juggernaut

    and we have better choices so fight fight fight then consolidate from Newt to Santorum to wear down Romney. If Newt loses GA then he should drop out and pledge support to Santorum, his voters will shift to someone similar but not Romney.

    Brokered convention, we should be thinking about Senator’s Tom Coburn, Marco Rubio or Governor Jeb Bush. Anyone one of the 3 shall ignite the fire in the base and from there Obama is going to be in the fight of his life. Some don’t like the convention idea but if we’re going to do it the decision needs to be made by June so august convention time will have a prepared candidate and a base ready to fight like there’s no tomorrow.
    We should see that with Romney but the fact is people simply are not interested from what I read day after day.

  • jamesm

    Carpet bombing of conservatives has helped Romney. Conservatism loses in a Romney nomination. If he loses to Obama the country is taken down a worse path. A zebra does not change it’s stripes. If Romney wins the GE we are stuck with a liberal/moderate that will move back to his liberal/moderate values but claim he is conservative. This is extremely damaging to conservatism. Ann Coulter is also attempting to co-opt conservative values. No doubt she will shill for Romney if he wins.The waters are muddied. Look at Romney’s recent talk of keeping parts of Obamacare. Without a clear distinction with Obama, coservatism will be set back for years under a Romney administration.The only way this will not happen is if conservatives oppose the non conservative actions of a potential Romney administration. This battle is most likely to continue.Conservatives are united against Obama but Romney will divide and conquer

  • haners

    Facts are pesky things.

  • haners

    So only a handful of states matter.

    Most of the base, certainly a large majority of RedState posters, live in states that are essentially uncontested.

  • deano64

    Romney? That will be tough. I’m not sure I can do it. How about going door to door and saying bad things about the POTUS and the fact he must not get a 2nd term? I think I can do that.

  • haners

    Your anecdote is simply that, an anecdote, and doesn’t hold water to the data.

    RCP has Romney UP by 4 over Obama in AZ
    Whereas Santorum is DOWN by 2 against Obama in AZ

    Maybe the problem is not Romney, but that your circle of friends are all too narrow if they are all “unanimously” “disgusted with the idea of a Romney nomination.”

  • filobeddoe

    so what does he care.

    None of them are great conservatives. I’ll vote Newt because he was responsible for the Republican takeover of Congress. He did get balanced budgets through (somewhat). He has some proven results. Romney really doesnt. I’ll probably write in Cain in the general.

  • goodgovernance

    I agree with Erick there. It is a tremendous shame that Santorum had to blow himself up in Michigan, otherwise we’d be talking about how Romney was on the ropes right now. On the other hand, it really was a surprising, unlikely event for Santorum to have won those three primaries in early February anyway, so… it is what it is.

    Any way you look at it, though, Romney is the weakest candidate the GOP has fielded in decades. After the convention and once the general campaign gets going in earnest, the base will be more enthusiastic for Romney than they are right now. I still don’t see too many factors that will get independents and swing voters to pull the lever for Mitt, though.

    If the economy keeps trending slowly upwards, Obama wins. Even if the economy stays flat, and five dollar gas or some other crisis brings it low again, there’s always a chance Obama convinces the country to stick with him.

    In the Nineties, I mocked Clinton’s “I feel your pain” line with everyone else. But it really did convince people that he was the one who would look out for them. I’m convinced at this point Romney possesses absolutely zero capability in terms of reaching out to people on this level, and the more he tries, the more voters will be repulsed by the inauthenticity.

    There’s always a chance a foreign policy crisis will pop up between now and November and dominate the national discussion, especially if Israel goes after Iran’s nuclear program. The nation tends to rally around the president in those moments, and Romney’s absolute lack of foreign policy experience would be highlighted. I don’t believe ratcheting up tough rhetoric is really a way to compensate for that lack of experience, at least not in a way that will convince the general public you’re more knowledgable than the sitting president.

    Foreign policy crises are also the situations where at some point you must take a stand, and Romney’s painfully measured and cautious nature would no doubt make it difficult for him to project innate strength and confidence of the kind required for the job.

    On the bright side, there’s always a chance Obama once again does something that goes against the fundamental leanings of the general public, like the recent HHS fiasco. But I think he’d need to do three or more such boneheaded maneuvers, in the month of October, for Romney to really have a chance.

    Finally saw some decent advice by the pundits for Romney on TV the other day, though. Campaign strategists basically acknowledged Mitt can’t be anyone besides the awkward, details-oriented manager that he is, so they suggested tailoring the job description of president to fit Mitt’s strengths, and let Mitt just be his bad-ass, PowerPoint-loving self on the trail.

    It’s not the ideal way to run a general election campaign, but at least that’s a strategy that reflects the ground-level truth.

  • papabear

    But that is my limit. During the 2010 campaign, I

    1.) ran a half marathon with conservative congressional candidate’s sign attached to my back

    2.) manned the call banks for many weekends

    3.) talked to every person I knew

    4.) manned the polls

    If he ends up winning by carpet bombing, he will be on his own in the general election.

  • haners

    This is such a non-starter that anyone who suggests it should be banned from discussing politics for 20 years.

  • rightland1111

    Believe me…Newt will win Georgia. The reason I put Newt at the top was because he has the gravitas…not Santorum. Santorum is a tax and spend guy who is running on a socially Conservative ticket with ONE solution to our fiscal crisis…give manufacturing a 0% tax rate. If you have read any of my posts…that means…the tax revenue lost from manufacturing will be made up somewhere else. I know…I hear it…it will be made up in jobs. 49% of people are on government assistance … who is going to make up the difference…I know…the Fed will give them the money.

    The brokered convention will further inflame people because “they” went to the polls for nothing. The GOP picked the candidate and we are back in the same box. Rubio needs more seasoning. Tom Coburn…that’s a possible.

    Now…I want you to think about Jeb Bush. He was a very good governor of Florida…but the apple does not fall far from the tree. This is what we have had going on for decades. Daddy Bush…Globalist…One World Order BS, Clinton…Bigger Government..more One World Order BS. GWB..liked a lot of his ideas…but the guy was a Big Government guy, hardly vetoed anything (did he???). He (GWB) did say “stuff it” to the Kyoto Treaty. However, we need to really see who started and maintained this ethanol mess and THEN….OBAMA…there are so many different ways to look at Obama…WITH PROOF…that I could be kicked off this board. Does he follow the agenda of the UN…Yes and is he anti-capitalist…YES. and all of you know the rest of the story.

    Jeb Bush is a problem. He has a great personality. Good command…but he is…make no mistake…just like his daddy and just like his brother…and we don’t need any more of that.

  • haners

    Ouch.

  • Melody Warbington (rwm52)

    I know it’s anecdotal, but really, nobody, absolutely nobody I’ve talked to is voting for Romney in the primary. Not in our local GOP, our local tea party, friends at church, family, co-workers, etc. In the last few months, only one person (a member of our local GOP) had anything positive to say about Romney. I suspect that may have changed given how Romney’s campaign.has been handled.

  • haners

    Romney is the only candidate that can even attempt to steal some of those suburban voters from Obama.

    For the Republican Party to have a future nationally, we must target the suburbs. More and more Americans are moving to metro areas.

  • unclefred

    But in a sense you are right. If Obama wins again this country will be unsalvageable by 2016. Think about the legislation that takes effect in 2013 and 2014 if the Republicans don’t take the Senate and the White House. Look at your children and in the mirror. First stop the bleeding, then worry about finding perfection.

  • unclefred

    if Obama wins you won’t “die by degrees”. Everything you want to achieve in the government will be dead in 4 years.

  • haners

    So people are voting for him over your candidate.

    Don’t confuse your circle of acquaintances with all Republicans and conservatives.

  • joeydavis

    Florida is a transplant state full of mostly northern retirees. It is decidedly more liberal than the rest of the south.

    Virginia is also not a true southern state. It is heavily influenced by Washington DC. Although the true opinion of Virginia will never be known because of its incredibly restrictive ballot access that only allowed the 2 campaigns with 6 years on the campaign trail to be allowed.

    N. Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky, Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas are all deep south states and all of them are trending heavily toward Santorum. Georgia would also without Gingrich in the race.

    The truth is IF Romney gets the nomination it will have come from the Solid blue states in the northeast and west coast. He will come out of the south having only broken 20% in ONE state.

    Without a win in Ohio he will also come into the campaign having been thoroughly spanked in the battleground states of the midwest with only a win in his native Michigan.

    This is a recipe for disaster in the general election!

  • krish

    Usually, Mittens flip flops after few days or few months on any major positions!

    Since he is close to getting the nomination for the republican party, Romney did a flip flop on within a Couple of Hours! When a reporter asked him about Sen Blunt’s bill to overthrow the Obama contraception policy – he did his usual thing – told ” I am Not for this bill”. SOon when the word spread out that he is against the Sen. Blunt bill & this campaign stated he is for the bill & did not understand the bill! His campaign said he did not understand the question!!

    Warning – whatever Romney says Now to get the nomination, He Will do a 180 degree turn —- Abortion, Contraception support by the government, Gay Marriage, Cap & Trade, Obamacare….there will be No Difference between Obama & Romney!

    Super Tuesday – Last chance to stop Romney!! Go Rick or Newt!

  • redmymind

    No thanks. I want no part of it. I’ll never “settle” for the loser who tries to muscle his way to the nomination, only to get soundly beat by BHO. Settling for Mitty is already voting for Obama, effectively. So go ahead, folks, “settle” and let’s see another unfolding of 1996 and 2008. Those who don’t stand up to the establishment but sheepishly cave in out of discouragement or giving undue creedance to some half-baked pessimistic account of the “horse race” are cowards, pure and simple. Go on, then, let the establishment and the liberal media yet again ram down another loser down our throats! Might as well, with the cowering and demoralized “conservative base” morphing fast into irrelevance–just the way the establishment wishes it to.

  • Robbrou

    If you think Virginia represents the equivalent voting demographic of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama then you are truly misguided.

    Need I remind that Virginia went for Obama in 2008. That state is no longer “Southern” in the political sense.

  • joeydavis

    I’m a past party chair. I’ve been a party activist for 20 years. And I am stating for a fact I will not vote for Mitt Romney.

    I will vote for Barack Obama. A vote for liberal Obama over moderate Romney will be better for conservatives over the long term.

    It will lead to a second Republican landslide in 2014, which will land us the senate. The 2010 state results have guaranteed the house for the next decade, so Obama will certainly be limited in what he can do in the next 2 years. He’ll be harmless in his last 2 years.

    In 2016 the 2012 defeat of moderate Mitt Romney against a very unpopular sitting President in a shaky at best economy will allow conservatives in 2016 to tell the moderates to “sit down and shut the hell up” when it comes to Presidential nominations.

    This is a battle for the heart and soul of our party and our country. It will set the stage for the next generation of electoral politics in the Republican party. Just as it took the conservatives 2 decades to overcome Goldwater’s landslide loss, it will take the moderates 2 decades to overcome the 1-2 punch of McCain-Romney

    The proper Republican vote in 2012 if Mitt Romney is the nominee is for Barack Obama and you can bet your last dollar I’ll sell that on the campaign trail.

  • littlehouse18

    If Obama wins we will be stuck with Obamacare for the rest of our lives, and maybe our childrens’ lives. That is if something even worse doesn’t happen to us in the next 4 years on the national defense front. We have never had a truly anti-American president before.

    With Romney we live to fight another day. He’ll probably do something about Obamacare (stinks to have to put it that way). He will surely improve our defense position.

    If Obama wins, there is no more America. I’d rather ‘settle’.

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

    Otherwise, the term “base” is meaningless.

    Steak and garlic? Ok, Steak: Harding, Coolidge and Reagan. The rest have been various types of garlic, most all of which are light years better than the poison toadstools nominated by the Dems.

  • mikelindell2

    Fox is doing its best not to mention that because they’ll do anything to try to stop another Newt surge. If other Super Tuesday states hear about these polls with Newt ahead they might want to vote for him, seeing him again as a credible choice. Let’s see if he can overcome it.

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

    t

  • littlehouse18

    I’m not an advocate for Romney as nominee. It’s just if he is, I’ll vote for him.

  • Melody Warbington (rwm52)

    Figures from real clear politics here show Romney’s at 1,749,677. Gingrich has 978,229, Santorum has 932,508, and Paul has 463,176, for a total of 2,373,913. I didn’t include votes cast for “other” in that total. Looks like Not Romney is leading.

    And I’m not confused. Many of my friends and acquaintances will be voting on Super Tuesday.

  • clintonformccain

    Perhaps “the South” in 2012 is not as homogeneous as it once was. Heck, I would suggest there’s a difference even taking the short drive down I-75 from Atlanta to Macon.

    BTW, the interesting question to me is why the two “Southern candidates” — Perry and Barbour — either couldn’t raise the money to run or bombed when they did.

  • clintonformccain

    in most of the southern states yet to hold primaries or in Ohio. I expect him to win Ohio based on the trajectory of today’s Rasmussen polling there.

  • trickamsterdam

    Haners, who cares? Has he even taken 51% in one State? You Romney people are accountant types who always get the details right, but miss the big picture.

    What percentage of the Base needs to stay home (or protest vote), do you think, to swing an election?

    If 10% do, then Obama has essentially picked up 5% of Romney’s votes, from that group.

    What is that in the total percentage of people who are going to vote? I don’t know, but Haners, if it ends up being one or two percent that effectively goes from Romney’s pile to Obama’s (and they are both piles!), I think…well, I think there’s a good chance that he’s dead, Jim.

    His chances of being President, I mean.

    So really…he’s not only not going to get the money or the volunteers or the good will…he’s not going to get the votes either. Not like he needs, haners.

    Now, you keep lording it over on people like you’re doing…and it’ll be even worse turn-out on Election day, than I predicted. But you go ahead and keep it up, because…haha, I’d like that result. ;)

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

    ntee

  • haners

    Have a little bit of perspective.

  • Whacker77

    Do you really believe Jeb Bush would lose 400 EV’s? Seriously, you seem to have bought into the MSM line that everyone hates the Bush name. Baloney! It’s just not true.

    Jeb Bush is just the candidate we need to run. He’s a conservative who has real, verifiable conservative results from his time as governor. He speaks about the issues in conservative terms and that’s something the Rombot can’t do on his best day.

    Name me one state McCain won that Jeb wouldn’t win. You won’t be able to be he’d win all of them. Jeb would also win back Indiana, North Carolina, and very likely Virgina. It’s a no brainer he’d win back Florida as well. Were he to do just that, he’s at 240 electoral votes. Throw in Ohio and one other state and he’s the president.

    Jeb, without much effort, would be on the doorstep of victory and Democrats know it. Why else would they be polling his name and war gaming out his late entry candidacy as Politico reported yesterday.

    Jeb Bush would defeat Obama and probably handily. The current clowns can’t beat their own shadows.

  • haners

    Then he’s finished. There’s surge.

    That would be like bragging that Romney wins Massachusetts and only Massachusetts.

  • haners

    typo

  • Vegas_Rick

    Big difference.

  • haners

    There’s a sizable faction that thinks regrouping for 2016 is a good idea. That’s what those in 2008 said about 2012, and now we’re going to kick the can further down?

    Not only Obamacare, the Supreme Court for the next 20 years is at stake too.

    Just imagine how an Obama stacked Court would vote on the affirmative action case.

  • Vegas_Rick

    He’s NOT one of us.

  • haners

    Take a look at the demographics and Obama’s Supreme Court picks.

  • Vegas_Rick

    You nailed it in three sentences.

  • trickamsterdam

    That is:

    “What percentage of the Base needs to stay home (or protest vote), do you think, to swing an election?

    If 10% do, then Obama has essentially picked up 5% of Romney?s votes, from that group.

    What is that in the total percentage of people who are going to vote? I don?t know, but Haners, if it ends up being one or two percent that effectively goes from Romney?s pile to Obama?s (and they are both piles!), I think?well, I think there?s a good chance that he?s dead, Jim.

    Romney’s chance of being President, that is.” – trickamsterdam to accountant haners

  • Vegas_Rick

    when we were supposed to vote for the Bushies, Dole and McCain. Yet the downhill slide for America continues. Romney will simply facilitate it, not end it.

  • acat

    I’ll bite my tongue and hope for a better candidate for a bit longer.

    Mew

  • arizonajohnson

    “I don?t care who our candidate is and I haven?t since the beginning of this. I haven’t! Ask not what the candidate can do for you, ask what you can do for the candidate! When I walk through CPAC or I travel the United States to meet people in the Tea Party who care–black, white, gay, and straight–anyone that?s willing to stand next to me to fight the progressive left, I will be in that bunker. And if you?re not in that bunker because you?re not satisfied with a certain candidate, more than shame on you! You?re on the other side!” Andrew Breitbart, Conservative Warrior and Game-Changer (1969-2012).

  • haners

    If they’re in South Carolina, then it doesn’t really matter if 10% of the base stay home.

    The key is FL, OH, PA. I agree that Romney has problems in OH in the general. But so does Santorum..

    We must win either OH or PA, in addition to FL (Romney is well positioned in FL due to the large suburban population).

  • goodgovernance

    If all you ever do is look at short term goals, you may never reach long term objectives.

    I’m worried about when the Republican Party really gets a chance to sort out what it stands for post-Bush. That can only happen in a presidential election cycle, but it can’t happen with Romney as our standard-bearer, because he’s ultimately too moderate (or worse) to galvanize the party to his governing philosophy.

    If Romney loses the general, regrouping for 2016 is not necessarily the worst thing in the world, in my mind. A thoroughly compromised conservative movement, on the other hand, just might be.

  • haners

    And having 3 Bushes becoming president in a span of one generation is pretty damn close to nepotism.

    There’s no chance in hell Jeb Bush would defeat Obama. That you argue he would do so handily reflects how delusional some of the posters here are. Stick to your day job.

  • acat

    Is it his dismal Massachusetts record? That sure didn’t work well in the Beantown ‘Burbs…

    Perhaps it’s because the folks he laid off while at Bain weren’t suburbanites?

    I know, he saved the Olympics! That’s sure to bring out the suburbs .. of Salt Lake City. (‘cept they’re already in the bag)

    Tell you what. I’ll offer a deal, open to any Romney supporter.

    I will avoid saying anything negative about Romney for 48 hours if you can tell me, in real terms, why he can win “suburbs”.

    Mew

  • mikelindell2

    I think his plan is to pick up a good amount of delegates on Super Tuesday, win GA (which it looks like he will) and let that win propel him into winning Alabama and Mississippi which hold their primaries the week after Super Tuesday. If he can pull it off I think he’d be very much back in the game.

  • Viet71

    The American people, right and left, dislike Obama, except for Dem party activists. The Left will hold their nose and vote for Obama.

    If Obama is given four more years, to the deep dislike of the Right and the barely tolerable disgust of most of the Left, and then carries on as during his first term, Repubs (one hopes true conservatives) will or should do well in 2014 and 2016.

    That’s not a bad outcome assuming (a) the Senate Repubs stand up against his Supreme Court nominees, and (b) the House blocks his legislative moves in the wrong direction.

  • Whacker77

    I think you’re dislike for the Bush name has made you delusional. Trust me. Smart conservatives realize he is a winner. Erick certainly believes that, but the fire breathers of our party decided they wanted bomb throwers who would be mean and nasty to Obama. That’s why Bachmann, Newt, and the other circus clowns had their moments in the sun.

    When Romney gets soundly defeated this Fall, it will cause a civil war in the party we were luck to avoid in 2009. The fire breathers in the Tea Party will revolt and it’s quite likely they will break off from the Republican party. That will destroy our electoral chances for years to come.

    Jeb would be able to unite everyone but the conspiracy theorists and those who believe we must place machine gun nests on the border.

  • Whacker77

    Four years ago, many said the same dumb thing. If Obama won in 2008, we’d win in 2012 because the country would revolt at his liberalism. Wrong.

    Who’s to say we won’t field another crop of worthless candidates in 2016? After what we’ve done to ourselves this time around, I have no reason to believe we won’t field another group of sorry candidates in 2016.

  • http://www.doctor-bob.biz rsklaroff

    [or is he too "Constitutionally" conservative?]

  • funwithknives

    If not, Barry stomps on the LOUD pedal and doubles down on Executive Orders, “interpreting” Senate /House rules ,etc. & for two years real trouble ensues.Laws get passed and are hard to rescind.

    But then we would probably get the Boogey Man we need , to get people up, offa the couch.

    Funny way to hope, though….

  • davesinsanantonio

    you think an Obummer win will “set the stage for the next generation of electoral politics” There will be no next stage! He will appoint federal judges who will legislate from the bench, who will disallow all redistricting that does not give a clear majority to the Dims, who will approve all of his executive orders, who will not see anything he does as unconstitutional, even if everyone else in the universe can see it. ETC.!!!
    So you saying you will vote for him proves you are not conservative, because conservativism is based on truth and fact. Your pipe dream that four more years of government giveaways, and judicial backing of all the destructive things he will do will make people understand anything approaching reality will backfire on you. His Justice Department will refuse to prosecute any election fraud cases that help Dims. The State Department will sell us out to the terrorists. The Pentagon will dismantle the military. The Department of Education be become the de facto Department of Pro-Dim Propaganda. The EPA will insure that our oil industry is all but destroyed. I could go on, but I doubt that you have the brains to understand, or the integrity to admit that you are wrong. So, thanks for helping to destroy this country instead of working with a human with flaws to try to save it. It must be nice to be so perfect yourself that you cannot forgive any shortcoming in others. Even God Himself is willing to forgive us if we repent. But, you obviously thing you are better than Him.

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

    btw, do you look gift horses in the mouth?

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

    teeeee

  • davesinsanantonio

    do well there it will give all the couch potatoes a warm, fuzzy feeling, and that might carry into the Fall.

  • trickamsterdam

    I can totally see where you’re coming from, but it’s more complicated than that. It’s not that Romney has no skills or was an easy opponent. It’s that you’re finally seeing why the “why can’t we get a business man to run the country” is rarer than a white tiger.

    This guy is used to making people do what he wants, and having a bottom line to meet. He meets it. So he feels threatened by Newt, he nukes him in FL. He figures he can unite the Base because he’s clearly better than Obama: who wouldn’t take that deal? Him over Obama.

    He has no idea about emotion or idealism, because he has none of either. He’s running through this campaign like General Sherman through GA and SC, but Sherman never had to worry about getting votes from those people.

    I don’t even know if he has a strategy for November, he probably is just focused on winning the next primary, like good sports teams worry only about the next game. But that doesn’t work in politics either. There’s a tomorrow in politics and it’s not always about math.

    It’s not that his opponents have no skills, and nothing to offer. That’s not why he’s winning.

    Basically he’s winning because he has better resources, and his business acumen helped him get those. But his business instincts doom him in the general. Voters don’t have to take his last fair deal. He’s not used to that. What’s weird is that his supporters are just as delusional: they believe once the primaries are over “the era of good feeling among Republicans” will begin.

    It’s just very lulzy that so many smart people have no idea how badly this guy’s going to be operated on and what “delicate feasting he’s going to provide to the birds and dogs” in the general election. What Obama’s going to do to him there (if he’s the nominee) will only be allowed to be seen on Cable.

  • bobguzzardi

    Here is an analysis showing Pennsylvania’s April 24th primary will be important, if not critical. http://www.politicspa.com/guide-to-the-pa-republican-presidential-primary/32312/

    For reasons I have posted elsewhere, including my The Liberty Blog, Rick Santorum will not win in Penna. Republican voters will either line up with Mitt Romney, as will I, or will go with Ron Paul.

    Rick Santorum is very damaged goods in Pennsylvania conventionally believed to be his home state. Mitt Romney will play the many, many videos of Rick Santorum campaigning with Arlen Specter.

  • doubledok

    The Chief Executive over next five years likely will nominate Supreme Court Justices for two conservatives – maybe more. Probably will nominate for at least one liberal justice. In the meantime voting via citizenship amnesty expands the Demcrats to clear majority status.

    Wake-up, Joey!

  • http://www.doctor-bob.biz rsklaroff

    …which I proposed in my Diary a month ago…has been supported by an essay in today’s WSJ [sorta]:

    http://www.redstate.com/rsklaroff/2012/02/09/a-modest-proposal/#comment-124

  • azaeroprof

    The question was about excitement, pounding the pavement, and working for the nominee. I know plenty of people who voted for Romney in the primary, mostly because they have looked at the data you have cited. All of them, and practically everyone else I refer to, will indeed vote for Romney. But a pretty large percentage of them also voted for McCain in ’08. The question Erick asked is whether folks will be vocal and active enough to get the folks who sat home in ’08 (or grudgingly voted for McCain only because Palin was on the ticket) to show up in 2012.

    Maybe Rubio as VP can get those folks out, idk. I doubt he would generate quite the excitement level Palin did, and even that wasn’t enough for McCain. I pray I’m wrong.

  • http://www.doctor-bob.biz rsklaroff

    I guess I do, because I would want her [and you] to support The Newt.

  • joeydavis

    For too many years we have stepped back and settled for “better than” and time after time we’ve gotten screwed because of it.

    Conservatives, particularly evangelicals are quickly becoming the African Americans in the Republican party. They no longer care what we think and we don’t get a seat at the table because our votes are taken forgranted. We can’t allow that to happen.

    The only way to stop it is to stand up LOUDLY and be heard. When the crickets are chirping and the chairs are empty they will come crying back.

    We’re in a good place electorally right now. The senate map looks good for us. We’ll get 2 open seats (ND and VA) plus Missouri to give us a majority. 2014 will look even better if Obama is still in the White House. We will gain back some of the ground we lost in the McCain ’08 debacle and should be in the 54-56 range which will contain any real damage Obama may do.

    2010 was a great year. The landslide gave us great control of the redistricting process so many of our house members are safer than ever. We should have control of the House over the entire 4 year term.

    This is the year when we can safely make our stand.

    Trust me, I’m not stupid, I recognize the risk. But I’m willing to make that gamble. If more of you would stand up and join me now, before this nominating process is over we can stop this disaster before it happens.

  • bethrorie

    You’ve convinced me. If Romney is the nominee, I will vote for Obama. I’m in TN, so I doubt it will matter. But, since squishy Republicans who get into office are much worse than resolute Democrats, I’m not sure I have any other principled choice.

  • bethrorie

    You’ve convinced me. If Romney is the nominee, I will vote for Obama. I’m in TN, so I doubt it will matter. But, since squishy Republicans who get into office are much worse than resolute Democrats, I’m not sure I have any other principled choice.

  • joeydavis

    Romney can’t win the general anyway so why not make a principled stand?

  • burke

    The first of the Southern states you listed, North Carolina, went to Obama in a squeaker. McCain only just won Missouri in a similar squeaker. Georgia went red, but that was pretty close, too.

    The Republicans get the South because the Republican Party has aligned itself with values that many Southerners believe in. This primary shows that many voters, Southern voters in particular, aren’t sure that Romney shares their values. I imagine such voters would be even more skeptical about Romney than we were about McCain. The worry is not the people I’m talking about in these states will vote for Obama. They’re part of the Republican base. The worry is that they’ll stay home.

    Romney, in theory, plays well with a particular type of voter. Middle class moderates (maybe independents, or maybe associated with either party) who can go either way. I don’t know how many of these people there are. I don’t recall ever hearing that these people decided elections. The media, however, seems to be obsessed with them, probably because many in their own ranks fit that description. (I might be being unfair, though: Maybe this group could get him Virginia? I fear Virginia’s just turning blue period, due to the immigration of firm Dem partisans.)

    A Romney win is going to be expensive. We’re going to have to secure some Southern states, plus win over voters in the real swing states. But he is going to be the nominee, so we’d best get on with it. He needs to drum up enthusiasm, drum up donations. He needs to show us something great.

  • drivlikejehu

    Well your question should be clarified: “why Romney has a better chance than Santorum or Gingrich.”

    For one thing, his primary results are consistently stronger in metro areas. Even in SC for instance he won Charleston and did OK in the Columbia area. The pattern has been fairly consistent from 2008 to ’12 even though Romney’s ideological coalition has shifted. It has also been true in different areas of the country.

    Against Obama, Romney will be seen as less focused on social issues and more attuned to the economy in comparison to Santorum. That impression alone is crucial given the fact most voters are of the low-information variety. Romney can also point to executive experience in business and government that Santorum cannot.

    Romney’s record has a lot of problems if you dig into it, but that’s not how most voters behave. Obama went to an openly anti-American church for 20 years, associated with terrorists, wouldn’t vote against infanticide in the IL Senate, and so forth, and yet he easily won. Romney’s broad narrative will sell in suburbia, which no other GOP candidate can say.

  • burke

    n/t

  • joeydavis

    Not so true for North Carolina, Virginia, Missouri, West Virginia, maybe even Georgia. There could definitely be some blue in the SE with Romney on top of the ticket.

    It won’t exist with Santorum on the ticket. He’s also in a more favorable position in the midwest battleground states. Romney won’t sell in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Iowa or Wisconsin. We desperately need those states.

  • davesinsanantonio

    to be on the slope than to re-elect Obummer and have him drive us directly off the cliff!

    GWB, bad as he was, was still better than Gore and Kerry would have been.

    If we give a Republican president a strong Congress then maybe we can get back some of Obummer’s usurpations. But, even a wimpy Congress and a spineless Repub presdent would be worlds better than another four years of the guy who wants to destroy America as we know it!!!!!

  • http://www.doctor-bob.biz rsklaroff

    …and his statements are “Shermanesque” in their definitiveness.

  • Viet71

    Pretty much.

    Not too worried about executive orders. They suck, but I’m betting the Supreme Court will eventually strike them down, as a violation of Separation of Powers.

  • http://www.doctor-bob.biz rsklaroff

    …as is discussed elsewhere on this page ["Newtorum"].

  • teapartynot

    Has any one else besides myself researched “What is Mormonism”? There is a reason Mormon’s are so secretive about what they believe. If you have not researched it I suggest you do. Romney well never win because of his faith and the GOP should be fired for thinking that this would pass. People are saying vote for the lesser of the two evils. Romney is no better then what we have now. In terms of foreign policy Newt is the strongest. With what is going on over seas I am looking at Newt. He has his issues and I started out saying I would never vote for him, but I’ve been full circle and I see no one else who can get us out of the mess we are in.

  • tnguy

    There is zero chance of him uniting the Party.

    If any sort of uniting is possible, I’d say perhaps Jindal or maybe Rubio.

  • davesinsanantonio

    puts us that much closer to our long-term goals, and makes them easier to see, and also to see the path to achieving them.

    On the other hand, allowing an Obummer re-run will put us that much further from both our short-term and long-term goals. Maybe permanently. Remember his goal is to “fundamentally change America”–to the point we won’t recognize it, and maybe to the point we cannot ever recover it.

    Please see my comments upthread to get a (short) list of some of the permanent things Obummer plans on doing to destroy the America we love.

  • Viet71

    Lousy candidates, yes. No reason Rubio, DeMint, or Ryan couldn’t step forward legitimately in 2016. Then we’d have a real, fighting chance for the WH. This time around, the good potential R candidates are too wet behind the ears. Four more years, especially four more years of Barry, can make a lot of difference.

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

    It is very relevant.

  • http://www.doctor-bob.biz rsklaroff

    …because, if nothing else, BHO would stack the SCOTUS.

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

    There is no reason we shouldn’t win big this year.

  • celador2

    Without the full protection of the First Amendment in swing the rest of all this is not worth a hill of beans. Freedom of conscience mattered to the founders as a foundation for a self governing society,

    Colonizers who came to North America did so for a better life and to live and thrive within their religious or personal conscience values. No state would mandate their views or actions. Quakers and Moravians swore no oath to either side. Adams feared a state religion of de facto atheism if zealots thrived. THIS IS NOT A SIDE ISSUE.

    All four candidates have expressed support to defend the First Amendment to the constitution, against Obamacare, this time.The convention may not be a fast rubber stamp as much as negotiated with delegates having inpout.

    The colonies were blessed with an abundance of natural resources that still exist today. America is and was the land of opportunity. Coal built America. US has highest air quality on the globe. We can move ahead with safety and developing natural resources.

    All Republicans say they will move on energy. This topic was a big deal in 2008 also. Energy is where the jobs are. As Newt implies it is anti American not to develop energy as Obama is want to avoid doing. .

    Now, Super Tuesday horserace 2012.
    Romney outspends everyone and at 5:1 wins, says EE above. Newt Gingrich told Greta Romney runs attack ads but not one positive ad on Romney! Why not? No conservative record by Romney?

    Santorum stands up for First and his views conform to constitutional duties of a president. None of them compartmentalize nor pit social issues against the economy! Liberals do so marginalize and try to put liberty defenders on defense. But anyone who allows Obama to tread upon precious liberties needs confronting. Santorum has appeal to upper midwest and north and south over values and manufacturing jobs,. We want that economy to return.

    Gingrich has some radical reform ideas that need to be a topic in a debate or RS–reforming the federal government on a business model. That is so profound we must pause than think what that design would mean. A merit based business model in DC! He has gas at 2.50 and energy development. His righteous stands for religious liberty and tyranical judges in SC rank him high with some constitutionalists imo. If its the thought that counts, Gingrich does well.

    Ron Paul will pick up delegates to downsize size and scope of government and cut spending. His ad on the three others shows Romney as Archietct Obamacare. A stark reminder that will not go away.

    If anyone is seen as inevitable he will surge in some states, but if Romney is that one, I fear precious liberites may not be on front burner anymore than a repeal of Obama care is.

    Maybe there is plenty of time before a nominee is chosen to learn more from each and set priorities. I am drawn to think tanks and plans candidates propose just as I considier the party platform a power base for rank and file. There is much to contrast to Obama’s take over using top down DC solutions.
    .
    I don’t care so much who the nominee is as long as I know he stands for some of the righteous and precious things we value and will fight forever to defend and protect them.

    Intensity and enthusiasm matter.

  • http://www.doctor-bob.biz rsklaroff

    …and it may inform some of the analysis here:

    *

    It is necessary to remember a few concepts, each of which is dramatized [for good or for bad or for indifferent/ugly] in today?s WSJ.

    1. Andrew ["he made it cool to be conservative" Breitbart reminds us of the need to unite against BHO; amazingly, the "Remembrances" piece in the WSJ was buried @ the bottom of page 5.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203753704577255163292926398.html#mod=djempersonal

    2. Perry continues to support The Newt, and the best way to rephrase the challenge is to perceive non-contenders as potential POTUS-nominees in 2020 [because we should envision re-election of whichever Republican is nominated this year]; although favored to win in his home-state, thinly-veiled hit-pieces abound ["Strong Views of Gingrich in District He Represented"] with this one ending with a ?balanced? conclusion [a husband/wife supporting Romney/anyone].

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203960804577241762170024558.html?mod=WSJ_WSJ_US_News_6

    3. Many unifying themes exist?and must be emphasized?as has been emphasized by The Newt; of course, this essay?s code ominously suggests that it may be necessary for his GOP-competitors to champion his ideas ["Gingrich's Energy Charge"].

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB20001424052970203986604577255761338883798.html?mod=djempersonal

    The bottom-line, here, is that 2011?s Gathering will be a hard-act to follow, recalling the energy of Perry?s announcement [and subsequent abandonment]?but it is vital to support the eventual nominee, particularly if it is Perry?s preference, The Newt.

    *

    Lest there be any ambiguity…

    ?the good/bad/indifferent-ugly treatment of The Newt [and a man who embodied his energies] by the WSJ should not be lost among those who are being distracted by the ?cinema? of the incessant discussion of a 2-man race.

    The Newt remains the ?Main St.? guy [a mantle inherited from Perry] who contrasts with ?Wall St. Mitt? and ?Main St. BHO.? Even a few minutes ago, Chris Wallace noted a drop in support for Santoroum [upper 20%], as The Newt rises [to~20%]. So, let?s just give it time, allow The Newt to win the biggest prize on Super Tuesday, build momentum the following week, and [recognizing rhetorical expertise, to be displayed again on FNC tomorrow-p.m.] displace Santorum as the anti-Romney.

    It is almost too late for Mitt to begin to gesture to signal interest in possibly dialoguing someday with the key-triumvitate of the revitalized GOP: the Evangelicals, the Constitutional Conservatives, the TEA [?Taxed Enough Already?] Party Movement activists.

    Candidly, I?m amazed that Mitt has chosen to try to demonstrate the ability to gain the nomination by ignoring the base?instead incessantly going-negative against his competitors?and let?s see how Sarah frames it tonight on FNC [probably continuing to telegraph support for The Newt]. Meanwhile, the Seattle Times just ?endorsed? Mitt as the ?default-choice.?

    ?Plus ?a change, plus c?est la meme chose.?
    [''The more things change, the more they stay the same.'']

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

    as all the money on the sidelines comes off the sidelines and by God, we need a recovery. I want to have some fun before I die…

  • davesinsanantonio

    appoint top level decision makers and all levels of federal judges. Those top level decision makers decided which bureaucrats get promoted into policy positions.

    @funwithknives: Barry has already given us a taste of how much the Senate can slow him down by making “recess appointments” when they aren’t in recess. He has proven he will not let Congress or the Constitution slow him down. He will also not listen to the Supreme Court once he has his second term.

    @Viet71: The polls show that most Americans actually like Obummer, even if they dislike his policies, so he could win re-election and use the likeability polls and that electoral momentum to do some very drastic things like disbanding parts of the military, shutting down more oil rigs and such. ETC!!!

  • davesinsanantonio

    if you will just ask.
    If you don’t ask, they you are just a bigot.

    If you truly believe that “Romney is no better” than Ovummer then you are ignorant or worse. By the way, I am no Romney fan. But, I will vote for whoever the candidate of the R Party is, because Obummer is more than just slightly more “evil”. His goal is to destroy America as we know it. At least Romney loves America and wants it to last and to succeed. So, give your bigotry a rest, please. Besides, we are electing a president, not a local minister. You can save your soul and still not sell the country down the river. Romney may not be what you would hope for, but if you think he is worse than what Obummer has already proven himself to be, then you are stooooopid!!!!

  • JSobieski

    (1) Push the envelope
    (2) But realize that you can’t be too far ahead of the public

    Reagan for example didn’t go around telling people he would voucherize medicare even though it is clear that he would have wanted to. Many called his 84 a substance free campaign that wasted political capital. He would have called it consolidating gains.

    He was a pragmatic politician.

    Pushing life long D’s needs to be done carefully and realistically.

    Sometimes I get the impression that people at RS don’t have a lot of personal interactions with liberals

  • wbf

    nt

  • celador2

    Gingrich may have a big sIate of delegates down the road that will stop the inevitable tag to Romney.

    I read a judge rejected a CD map designed by Texas and the state can not hold its scheduled caucuses or primary in April. With a big endorsement by governor Perry Newt has expectations of picking up155 delegates from Texas, winner take all.

    Postponed from April to May can be a lifetime, but if Newt holds on untitl then maybe delegate rich Texas will save the Gingrich campaign. Gov Jindal in Lousiana endorsed Perry but that does not mean he also will push Gingrich, but he might.

  • phenne

    …. “read & bleed” the First Principles, contributor person ‘clintoformccain’

    Moderates? What ARE they good for? Absolutely nuthin’!

    Want me to say it agin’?

    Please, tell my ilk we are all wet about losing our liberties, those rights endowed by our Creator — c’mon, tell us where we are “clueless” or “ignorant of politics” or “oblivious to mainstream citizens” — we wanna here it from y’all “annointed” persons ….

  • joeydavis

    Look at the race in February when it becomes a 2 man race between Santorum and Romney

    Romney 741,825 Santorum 692470

    This is the actual votes cast count. RCP doesn’t include Missouri, but votes were cast there and preferences were made!

    If there were no Gingrich Santorum would be up BIG. Heck had Santorum chosen to waste resources just chasing a vote count in Arizona he’d probably have won the month of February.

    That’s why, just as in the general election, popular vote totals are useless

  • WillWong

    “He has his issues and I started out saying I would never vote for him, but I?ve been full circle and I see no one else who can get us out of the mess we are in.”

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

    I am very vocal in the pubs and have only had 1-2 people stick up for Obama in the past 2 years and I am around a lot of black dems as well. The economy is so bad that it seems to override even lifelong associations with the Dem party. But that is anecdotal, admittedly.

    What we at Redstate and conservatives mainly need to get over is the fact that we don’t have a Reagan-like tea partier. Our top 3 are actually ok from a historical perspective.

    The work we have to do is long term. The mess we are in was a long time in the making…

  • phenne

    Perry made a mistake coming back FROM SURGERY (remember?) without recovery first, and grueling practice before the debates.

    Please don’t go there.

    Ya know, you are starting to smell funny — like a Establishment/Big Government RINO ….

  • Common_Cents

    It was evident early on before Newt’s first surge, there is much pent up support for Gingrich but people don’t want to be the first to show it, but wait for others.

    Many people don’t like to be alinskied and ridiculed in the media or by peers. Mainstream support usually piles on the leader after others join in and want to go for the leader or the “safe” candidate. The Romney negative blasting made Gingrich less safe in the minds of primary voters, but more and more people are coming around to reality of qualifications and ability showing through.

    Gingrich is the best candidate to survive the obama smear and onslaught. he’s got the tools that romney or santorum just don’t have when they are under attack.

  • phenne

    purrrrr-fectly stated, Gamecock

  • http://www.doctor-bob.biz rsklaroff

    …and this analysis bodes well for another resurgence.

    Officially, he’s neutral–
    http://www.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2012/02/post_426.html
    –but those who talk of a contested convention are anti-Mitt.

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

    I would vote for Mitt. Dolly has lived here all here in Jawja all her life and hates Newt, despite the fact that she is an academic that reveres another academic named Wilson! She actually should be for Newt, but I think she wants to also strike a blow against Democrat anti-Mormon bigotry. Identity politics is ingrained in many dems…but I love her, so….plus I like Mitt except when I don’t. That gratuitous red meat for the base statement still has be mad as hell. But G Will’s column and the notion that we can’t beat Obama and that it doesn’t much matter has me even more frosted, not to mention EE’s sell out to CNN on the “improving economy” line…column on the latter this weekend.

  • tnguy

    I just think this is foolish and short-sighted. You can’t correct what’s wrong with the party by electing Romney. You’re rewarding the very sort of republicanism that has us at this point in history.

    No offense, but we’ve been doing this for 2 decades, and all it’s done is dragged us closer to the edge. Romney will take us down the same road as Obama: he just won’t be moving quite as fast.

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

    I give Obama most of the credit actually…and she turned 40…shhhhhh

  • phenne

    me smells a TROLL …..

    jus’ sayin’ ….

  • phenne

    , right?

  • libertus

    He is more likely to rule by decree!…by using executive orders and regulatory machinery to advance his goals if he can’t get a GOP Congress to go along with it. Heaven help us if there is an all-Dem Congress again — it will become a parade of rubber-stamping the quick march of the state.

  • haners

    Plenty of things to attack Romney for without using Mormonism, it just reveals your true motivations.

  • clintonformccain

    He bombed.

  • acat

    I agree with you, most Americans weren’t paying attention in 2008… however I do have two quibbles.

    First, are you suggesting that the strengths Romney has here won’t also apply to Gingrich? You singled out Santorum for social issues – but Gingrich hasn’t trended that way .. instead, he proposed a moon base. Yes, it’s shudder-inducing, but .. it’s also the kind of “big-science” that our country used to be good at….

    Second, are you suggesting that the media will cover for Romney more effectively than they covered for McCain? (that is, they won’t turn on him in September, just as they turned on McCain?)

    Hint – the reason Obama was able to win was, in part, nobody in the mainstream media (excepting the blogosphere and right-radio) were talking about Rev. Wright or infanticide.

    It’s a problem that I still don’t see how Romney can get out from under.

    Mew

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

    down by the court. “The Secretary shall decide” will remain…

    We have to repeal Obamacare, Dodd-Frank and EPA regs that are closing power plants, coal mines and oil drilling and then we can start to correct all the bad legislation that existed before Obama that was onerous.

  • acat

    Gingrich already knows what the general election will look like.. and we know how he’ll go after Obama: On the issues, with ideas and a vision.

    I have no idea what to expect Romney to do in the general .. so far, he’s not been inspirational or managed sound bite attacks on Obama. (he kept getting way, way too deep into the weeds during the debates .. he may know this stuff but his answers aren’t bite-worthy)

    Mew

  • WillWong

    Want to join me folks? Newt needs some money to fight!

  • Common_Cents

    NE liberals in urban areas went for Romney in lower turnout, and more “southerners” in northern FL turned out big and Gingrich won those areas.

    Nobody has explained how FL being proportional according to the rules is double punishment instead of winner take all, in addition to losing 1/2 delegates.

  • Common_Cents

    How did we stop obamacare again?

    How did we stop all the czars again?

    How are we going to stop possibly 2 more SCOTUS appointments again?

    How can you stop someone w/ spineless leadership on our side when obama ignores the constitution?

    How can you stop a lame duck president using the power of the federal govt?

    How can you stop a lame duck president using activist judges?

  • WillWong

    America is being fought and won….One Newt gallon at a time!

  • Common_Cents

    Gingrich has much harder time in the primary than the general.

    Santorum and romney would have much tougher time in the general than the primary.

    think about it.

  • Finrod

    After signature collection had already been going for a while, the VA GOP thanks to Romney operatives changed the rules so that you had to get 15K signatures to be guaranteed to be on the ballot, instead of 10K. Guess who made sure they got 15K? Romney.

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

    its personal

  • drothgery

    at getting Tea Party support

  • drothgery

    … are losing by much large margins.

  • peter999

    I am puzzelled that people are worried about Romney losing southern states. Remember, if Romney looses, that means obama had to win. Is there any conceivable way deep red southern states pull the lever for obama? I just don’t see it. The base is not enthused now because they do not love the current candidates, and the object of their anger is not on the ballot. When he is, I don’t think any of us will be staying home on election day.

  • WillWong

    Michigan and Florida two good examples!

  • filobeddoe

    So, why worry about “turning” out your base since the base always votes for the nominee anyway.

    In business, your base is your customers. Offer them crap and see if your customers anymore.

    In politics, conservatives are your base. Offer them crap…

  • Finrod

    Jeb is the most conservative of the Bushes, easily.

  • Viet71

    His policies basically suck. Agreed.

    But he gets his way because of feckless Republican leaders like Boehner and McConnell. They’re fixable problems.

  • kleerstreem

    I have no idea why one state is more of a must win state than another. How many times have we heard this? Way too many, but, I guess it keeps the debate going on and ratings up.

    Super Tuesday will tell us something, but, it won’t be do or die day for any of the contenders. Rather than Super Tuesday, I think we should be calling March Super March. Why??? All total March has 850+ delegates up for grabs. Most likely the 850 delegates will be split between Mitt, Newt, and Rick.. Then we get into April with another 350 + delegates. By the end of April, we should have a decent idea about who will be the GOP candidate? Maybe??? If March and April are split proportionally between 2 or 3 candidates, then we could be entering May with none of the candidates having more than 500 to 800 delegates. So we get into May and the big state with the most delegates will be TX on May 29. May total delegates is 431.

    Delegates from March – June are:

    March 860

    April 329

    May 431 (Because TX primary has now be scheduled for May 29)

    June 339

    Grand Total: 1,959 Delegates.

    This won’t happen, but, if Santorum and Mitt spit the 1,959 evenly, neither would have enough delegates to reach 1144. Plus, don’t you think Newt or Paul might win a few states along the way?

    So, to keep writing one state or the other is a do or die state for any of the candidates, at this point in time, at best is just a wild guess.

    If the delegate count should stay within 2-4% of the top two contenders, the most critical state could turn out to be UTAH with 40 delegates. Anyone want to guess who wins UTAH?

    For any of the contenders to reach 1144 by the end of April, one of them would have to have between 78% to 90% of all the delegates in those two months. I don’t see that happening.

    Summary: Any contender who might get lucky and win every state in March still doesn’t have 1144, not even Romney. My take on the GOP winner, if we have one, it will happen between May 29 and the end of June….Otherwise, one of the contenders will have to get extremely lucky prior to May 29.

    Sidebar:…. I like many am praying for a brokered convention which, most likely won’t happen. Which leaves the convention open for a lot of ‘horse trading’ of delegates. Why??? Because there will be 477 unpledged delegates at the convention. Those unpleadged delegates, are not bound to any candidate which means they are free to cast their vote for any of the contenders or someone that’s not a contender.

    Again, bottom line, we most likely will not know who the GOP Candidate will be until the GOP Convention. But, in politics, we never know when one of the candidates may catch on fire and other candidate(s) ‘fire’ my go out???

    Sorry this is so long, but, I am big on facts and not rhetoric.

  • Viet71

    Snowe sucks, but her retirement isn’t good in terms of blocking Supreme Court nominees. That’s majority, not super-majority, rule.

  • demsaresatanic

    in the south and make another comeback.

  • Viet71

    I know the WH and the SC go hand-in-hand. But if we’ve got control of the Senate, the WH basically becomes a non-entity for a tolerable period of time, during which good, strong Republican candidates can make their case for the WH.

    Barry’s on the losing side of history. He’ll fade faster than Jimmy Carter once out of office. If he gets four more years, he’ll just dig himself a deeper hole, which has to be good for an opposition party led by stalwarts.

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

    strike down the individual mandate. A GOP House and Senate can’t repeal anything without a GOP President (unless that had veto-proof super majorities, which is a pipe dream of course). So that having a GOP House and Senate but not the presidency would essentially lock in the unacceptable status quo.

    I’m not living for 2016. I want to start filling in the hole in 2013.

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

    We need for the GOP to hold all of Congress and the White House to fix America legally.

  • gracie

    Don’t you know somebody you could talk to to facilitate such a meeting between Newt and Santorum??

  • Whacker77

    I basically agree with what you wrote, but I’ve been warning people about the sad state of the race since last Spring. When they write the history of this clown show, they will wonder why no top flight choices attempted a run. Had any one of the white knights made a run, Romney would have been a goner.

    The only reason Romney has been able to win is thanks to his money. His money has allowed him to nuke his pathetic opponents with negative advertising, He’s divided, depressed, and then conquered. It’s one thing to do it against such a hapless field, but it won’t work on Obama.

    Obama is a street fighter. He’s not going to mind getting into a knife fight with Romney because he knows he’ll carve up Willard like a Thanksgiving turkey.

  • acat

    A big chunk of Gingrich’s baggage won’t matter in the general.

    Most of Romney or Santorum’s baggage will.

    Go figure.

    Mew

  • Viet71

    And about forfeiting four good years.

  • gracie

    Right or wrong they feel Mormonism is a cult. They will not be persuaded by what Obama will do to this country..They have told me, “then, it is in God’s hands.”

    Also true about the Ron Paul voters I know in Texas They have told me they will no longer copromise their principles.

  • Whacker77

    Pure nonsense. Jeb was likely the most successful conservative governor in the last 50 years. Were he to do with the federal government what he did in Florida, Republicans would rule for a generation or more. Instead, we’re about to be sent to the wilderness after Romney loses.

    The only people who don’t like Jeb are machine guns on the border crowd and the conspiacy theorists.

  • Viet71

    I have a real Fourth Amendment problem with parts of the Patriot Act. Is that part of what you mean by “laws”?

    As for policies, well, I’m at a loss. I haven’t seen any presidential policies I’ve much liked since the days of Reagan, Nixon, and Kennedy (when I was a teenager). Policies matter, but who’s to say President Gingrich would have policies that would be liked here much better? He’d be another flavor of big-government president. Big-government presidents are all pretty much alike, except at the edges.

  • acat

    I find it .. disturbing .. to believe that these supposedly upstanding citizens are gonna ignore the whole process because of Romney’s religion.

    Mew

  • Whacker77

    There are plenty of reasons to think better candidates won’t step forward in 2016 because our better candidates didn’t do it in 2012. The idea 2016 will be easier to win is just wrong in my opinion. If Obama has a well received second term, O’Malley and Cuomo are going to be very tough to beat because liberalism will become part of our lives.

    If we lose in 2012, we’re going to have a civil war that will leave the party broken and fractured. We avoided it in 2009, but we won’t this time. Because we won’t avoid it, I think it’s likely the best in the party will not want to risk being associated with a broken brand. Rubio will feel better suited to run for re-election, but Palin will be waiting on her snow mobile to drive us off a cliff.

    Morning Joe, and I know most hate him, said the other day he’s spoken in private with the candidates who didn’t run and he said they just didn’t want to be associated with the read meat, fire brand wing that is dominating the party today. The loudest voices in our party have deemed Jeb, Christie, and Daniels RINO’s, despite the fact they’re successful conservative governors.

    I don’t see any reason to believe 2016 will be any better because the most vocal and influencial conservatives are more interested in being a protest movement rather than a governing political party.

  • gracie

    Earlier this week the diary by Dan McLaughlin proposed that a brokered convention would probably not change a thing. So I had given up. I had forgotten about the uncommitted delegates.

    I have wondered why EE did not have SMOD (brokered convention) in this horserace today.

    The nastier Romney gets the more desperate I get for him not to win. And I do not know one person where I live, Tea Party or not, who is for Romney!!

  • stroker97

    Why not Newt? Erik, why do you think Newt can’t win TN and OK? I know the polls show Rick up, but why do you think Newt can’t take these two states? If people like you got behind him totally, this would be a different race. From all the articles you’ve run about Newt I can see you do support him somewhat. But if you and the rest of the conservative commentators got behind him, this race would be over. I just can’t understand why you, Sarah Palin, and others who claim to be so conservative yet you won’t back the most conservative candidate–Newt. I can’t figure it!

  • Whacker77

    Why must we put the country through four worthless years or rancor? Nothing about 2012 looks good to me. If we lose the White House, we’re going to struggle to keep the House and struggle to win back the Senate. This will be another wave year and we’ll be on the wrong side for the third time in four elections.

  • http://californiateapartypolitics.blogspot.com/ smokedaddy

    If he wins no states other than Georgia, Newt needs to look deep into his soul and decide if he’s going to recommend Santorum and sleep at night, or allow himself to be pimped out by Sheldon Alderson on behalf of the Romney forces. With his endorsement and his delegates, Santorum can win the rest of the south and the nomination providing he wins Ohio. Food for thought.

  • http://impudent.edublogs.org/ kyle8

    They need to stay home, forever.

  • Viet71

    But far less so if Repubs own the House and have, what appears to be a decent possibility, a majority in the Senate.

    Thanks to our tri-partite form of government, Obama would be blocked on the legislative side and (fingers crossed) on the judicial side.

    I get GC’s lack of desire to forfeit four good years. But in my estimation, conservatives want value over time, not just value currently, unless the value rings true and can be plucked now.

  • gracie

    I find it disturbing too. That is why I have spent countless hours arguing with them. You want to know what happens? They start talking about the end times!

    Although these are older people they are extremely set in their ways. They are relatives of mine.

    I was simply answering the poster above and although it is anecdotal evidence it has alarmed me as to how many other people are out there thinking it but not saying it because it is politically incorrect.

    I would probably fall in the category of wishing he was “more Mormon” as was said at the large meeting in Texas where Dobson and company endorsed Santorum.

  • Viet71

    If we must lose, let’s make the very best of it.

  • demsaresatanic

    for you.

  • demsaresatanic

    merely by being Republican, that was an historic blowout. Not that I think Romney can win Penn either.

  • carolina

    enough to drum up some ‘energy’.
    If there are enough dems/independents like your girlfriend who will vote ABO – the GOP has a good chance in spite of an uninspiring candidate. However, I would feel better if your girlfriend was a northeastern dem. That would be REALLY encouraging.

  • westcoastpatriette

    comes true and then my vote in June would actually count for something. Of those 339 delegates to be won in June, Cali has 172 of them and we are not a winner take all state. That would make us competitive for a change. I want this to drag out as long as possible if for no other reason than to push back against the Romney bullies. The more he manipulates the election by smearing the others and buying influence, the more I want to sabotage his efforts.

  • demsaresatanic

    that would be too exciting for him, Romney is more the “fizzle out” sort.

  • clowngirl

    When Santorum was un-vetted, the only untarnished Not-Romney, and able to define himself as he liked w/out challenge– he may have drawn the not-Romney vote by default.

    Now that people know more about him, some folks may be deciding they don’t like him as much.

  • trickamsterdam

    If by “Southern” you mean what is the old Confederacy, I can remember right off the top of my head that he won NC, FL, VA. There may be others, or border states that are generally considered “Southern”, but I don’t feel like looking it up…McCain got pounded so badly, it’s all kind of hazy for me, and I prefer to look at recent polls…but clearly if you do something once you can do it again.

    BTW, if people think that Obama was in a stronger position then than now, I’m not sure there’s any actual evidence to back that up.

    There really were questions about his experience last time, that’s all gone now. And part of his new experience is going to have had run for President before (probably one of reasons listed least in Presidents’ abilities to be re-elected at a high rate). They know what’s coming.

    If it’s Romney I shudder to think (well actually I don’t, I’ll be tuned out of the election) what rookie mistakes Romney might make, have only a failed and a successful statewide race, and a failed national race in 2008, that ended on Super Tuesday, and then this one where he’s managed to collapse his positives w/ Republicans and Independents and only wins w/tremendous resource advantages.

    “When [Obama is on the ballot], I don?t think any of us will be staying home on election day.” – peter999

    One of the problems w/ Romney supporters (to list all of them I wouldn’t need a comment box, I’d need to project it on the face of the moon) is that you’re always guessing about things, and you’re so bad at it. Everything is some desperate gamble that Independents will come, and the Base won’t have anywhere to go.

    People aren’t going to believe he’ll lose Independents until it actually happens (he will lose them) but as far as the Base not staying home, how much of the Base has to, for you to think it might swing the election?

    Democrats are still whining about Nader, in 2000, aren’t they? What did he get, two or three percent? What happened in FL again?

  • drothgery

    unless we end up with highly regional results (and I don’t see anything about Romney vs Santorum vs Gingrich vs Paul that’s likely to splinter on CA regional lines) or a very close result, it’s effectively pretty close to winner take all.

    I suspect Mitt will win the popular vote in CA by more than 5%, and that will translate to a near-sweep of the delegates (in 2008, McCain got the vast majority of delegates in CA despite winning the state by only 8%).

  • acat

    That never ends well.

    Mew

  • federalfarmer1

    Better than Obama, you tool.

    Then, in the end, in the voting booth, vote for romney if hes ahead. i wont lift a finger for romney until then.

  • drivlikejehu

    It’s true that Gingrich is more like Romney in that he can theoretically pitch himself as a pragmatic, solutions-oriented guy, but he has a lot of added negatives. He is undisciplined, lacks executive experience, and has way more professional and personal baggage. I was mostly thinking about Santorum as the alternative to Romney because it doesn’t seem like another resurrection is in the cards for Newt.

    Of course the media will be 100% in Obama’s corner, that’s a given. If that was enough, Democrats would never lose. Even in the midst of full scale 2008 Hope and Change, Obama’s coalition was not all that great. If GOP turnout had been below average rather than horrible, Obama would have won pretty narrowly despite basically perfect conditions.

    Romney is not exactly a stranger to negative campaigns and, unlike the delusional McCain, he won’t be expecting fair treatment from the media. The only way Obama can win is for middle and upper-middle class suburban whites to vote for him despite disagreeing with his economic policies. Obama might be able to scare them enough about Santorum, but against Romney it will hard.

  • AceInTX

    But will they go door to door, talk positively about him, defend him, and give him money? That?s more difficult to answer.

    That’s the question isn’t it.

    I for one won’t. I’ll vote for him…but I won’t defend him or his asinine statements. I won’t try to defend a windsock….someone who changes positions every time you start to defend them leaving you holding the bag while he’s off setting some other sucker up to defend him while he changes again.

    y credibility means too much to me to waste it on a loser like Romney. I’ll vote for him reluctantly…but that’s it

  • jdw4america

    How do you not see that?

    He’s using The Constitution as toilet paper. The 1st Amendment is subordinate to his agenda. He appoints recess positions when Congress is not in recess. He shuts down private businesses. He cripples entire industries. He subsumes whole sectors of the economy into the Federal Government. He launders money for criminal enterprises like the unions. He illegally searches American citizens traveling by airplane. He disenfranchises voters according to their race. He conspires with foreign criminals to revoke the 2nd Amendment – even when it puts Americans in mortal danger. He apologizes to the enemies of the United States, while threatening our allies and even our own soldiers. He devalues our currency, and brings our economy to the edge of an abyss from which we may not be able to recover. He determines for himself which laws he will defend, and which he will ignore or even defy. He redefines marriage over the expressed will of the people. He seeks to indoctrinate the young in perversions and deviancy. The depth and scope of his illegal activity is so vast that it can’t even be fully addressed by any single person at this site or any other.

    All this he does with impunity, despite the fact that he must submit to a popular election, and might be held accountable for these actions.

    What will this man do if unfettered by the necessity of seeking re-election? There is no 2016. There will be no election in 2016 if that fascist in the White House is re-elected. He and his minions will usher in their fundamentally transformed America, and it will not be based on anything that has been here before. The country we were born in, the country we love will be gone. The misery, the poverty, the oppression will be unimaginable.

    I have no love for Romney, but he will not destroy our country. No sane person can claim that he would have done what that evil creature has done. Nor can a sane person claim that his plans for our country are the same as that evil creature has for our country.

    I do not want Mitt Romney to be our next President. I think his conservatism is a sham. I would prefer Newt any day of the week, but as God is my witness, I will vote for anyone – ANYONE – who wins the Republican nomination. I don’t care if that’s Mittens or Mr. Magoo.

    WE MUST WIN in November, or we “lose the last best hope on earth.”

  • demsaresatanic

    that is what he is counting on, but I don’t see any way that Romney beats Obama, RS is full of evidence on that score.

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

    and a GOP congress passes a law repealing them.

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

    smile

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

    infinitum and yes, many laws before Obama need to be repealed.

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

    and maybe he just lost Ohio?

  • greyeagle

    Also voting Republican this year.

  • greyeagle

    Newt won a lot of counties here in Florida. The RNC changed their own rules and awarded all delegates to Romney. Newt protested, but it did not do any good. Romney did not beat Newt by that much. Even Perry got a bunch of votes here. Romney is merely an anti-Obama vote. As for the likely “Great” win in VA, well there is just him and Ron Paul. So I am not impressed. Romney is not a conservative and is Obama LITE.

  • greyeagle

    here in Fl would be my VP choice. I believe he would take it and shred whomever Obama’s VP choice.

  • greyeagle

    FOX News and other so called conservative media are all in the tank for Romney. This is the way they treated Governor Perry simply ignore him. Now Newt is getting the same treatment.

  • Common_Cents

    If Gingrich gets a little momentum he might have to go after Santorum first.

    They either need to have some agreement to work together or go to war and one needs to finish the other off.

    We’ve seen what happens in a see-saw battle where all non romneys take turns at the lead. Romney gets down the track and voters are confused.

    Not even sure it can be done but one needs to finish the other off and then it will be easier to take on Romney head to head.

    Can it be done? not sure, but we’ve seen how its been workin so far.

    If the southern states totally repudiate Romney then it might be possible to oust him from the race, but the power of the establishment is immense.

    The bottom line, Gingrich and Santorum need to agree to work together, or decide to go at it somehow and eliminate one or the other in order to have a real race with Romney. This anti romney rollercoaster stale mate just serves to run out the clock.

  • acat

    The moon base hurts Gingrich, but not nearly as much as Romney’s 2009 pro-Obamacare statements.

    The three wives hurt Gingrich, but not nearly as much as Santorum’s union entanglements and hostility toward small-government folks.

    Mew

  • acat

    Do you see one in this collection of dog pound rejects?

    I’m looking for the fewest fleas, and concluding that’s Gingrich.

    Mew

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

    is as you say.

  • demsaresatanic

    Luddites like the others will perhaps manage the decline better than Obama, I prefer someone who has not given up on America as leader.

  • demsaresatanic

    http://www.redstate.com/erick/2012/03/02/the-horserace-for-march-2-2012/#comment-174275.

    What did you mean by the “in which case I would vote for Mitt” part? I hope more see things your way. I can see Santorum, he’s great on social issues, but Romney as backup man????

  • Common_Cents

    but he still has the establishment on his side.

    That’s why I think the FL proportional/WTA was so critical. All the calls are going Romney’s way, and that one would have hurt him had it been proportional.

    the three candidates talking to each other and cancelling the only major debate of the season, CNN in Georgia was another critical blow.

    the media has been out to largely ignore Gingrich as happened earlier in the race.

    That’s why I’m thinkin Newt/Santorum need to either work together or face off so we can finally get a head to head race against Romney. The see saw between them isnt doing much good, its only serving to run out the clock when romney is ahead on the points board. Time to pull the goalie! hehe.

    If Romney wins, he’ll be better for it. But doggone it, he hasn’t had to win anything against a well backed challenger, only splintered support.

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

    the last 2 weeks, I think Newt (1b) may well be the better choice. Mitt is 3.

  • JSobieski

    nt

  • trickamsterdam

    I basically agree w/ you too. The one difference is I’m not sure he couldn’t have blown up a Ryan or Daniels etc w/ the negative ads too. If you don’t have a lot of money, and right away, it’s hard to fight this guy. And he proved he’d dip into his own in 2008.

    It’s clear he destroys anyone who is a threat, whatever the cost and w/ no thought whatsoever for the future…maybe perceiving a real threat, instead of half threats like Newt (was out of the game too long to be ready for trench warfare) and Santorum (has all the work ethic in the world, but still can’t explain even the most basic thing like “why did the chicken cross the road?”) he would have started the negativity a lot sooner.

    The basic problem is he’s uniquely equipped to win the Primary, because of its state by state nature, and his long preparation…but totally unequipped to win the General, because Obama has everything he does times five.

    Whatever…I’m going to try to do what I can to defeat Romney, then, having done my duty, tune out until mid November, when I’ll stick my head out of the hibernation cave and see what’s up.

    They don’t need to worry about me. They say I hate Obama so much, I’ll vote for Romney even if I say I won’t, so apparently they no me better than me. I’ll just stagger out on election day like a zombie and just serve this guy. LOL @ them. Silly rabbits…I mean Rombots.

    PS – I saw a post of yours about how things might not be better in 2016. Unfortunately, you may be right about that too. Well, what are you going to do? Dorthy Parker: Might as well live! LOL.

  • JSobieski

    so Romney would have used those same ads that he used against Santorum.

    Romney never raised a debt ceiling because he never had the option of doing so. What an absolute tool he is.

  • aesthete

    at explaining their positions and arguing for their positive visions of government than Santorum has, though.

  • JSobieski

    We both know that the 1980 primaries were 20 times more substantive than the 2012 version despite 24/7 cable, the Internet, etc.

    All someone has to do is mention a certain word like “amnesty” or “mandate” and the public can’t distinguish anything.

    Perry supports instate tution for illegals, and he supports amnesty.

    Newt/Heritage supports a barebones mandate, and they are no different than Romney or Obama.

    Its time to make alternative plans . . .

    Obama supports an income tax.
    Romney supports an income tax.

    Both candidates support income taxes, so what is the difference?

  • olds88er

    The Governor of Virginia, a big Romney fan, will deliver his state.

  • demsaresatanic

    So true, we have to work harder to boot him.

  • WillWong

    Super Tuesday is a few days away. Newt Gingrich’s campaign rose from the dead twice and with your help, he may come back for the third time. Newt is truly the person prepared for a time like this. America is in such a deep hole, financially and economically that only a person with the correct vision, brilliance, and proven record can turn the country around. Newt led the 1994 Republican Revolution and retook the House for the first time in 40 years. His Contract with America took the country by storm and his Balanced Budget Amendment came within a single vote in the senate of being approved. His personal life is full of baggage and quite deplorable. But God as shown that He can use anyone, including Balaam’s ass for His own purpose. I am convinced that God has prepared Newt for a time like this to turn this great country around. Just as Churchill was rejected by England after WW1 and called upon in 1940 to lead the country through her darkest days in WW2, so is it conceivable that Newt Gingrich, a man rejected by the Republican Party in 1998 might be the man called upon to turn this country around. To do that, Newt will need financial support. I hope that you will seriously pray about supporting Newt’s campaign with a financial contribution. Please go to www.newt.org to make a contribution.

    To help you know more about Newt’s record, I have written a few diaries about Newt. Please read through the diaries and forward to all your friends as well. Newt is our last hope.

    Eternally grateful,

    Will

  • acat

    guaranteeing him a huge turnout and no serious conservative competitors.

    Between 2009 and 2012, Romney apparently sewed up the party apparatus in several key States including VA and MI .. ensuring he wins, even though it stinks on ice.

    Mew

  • acat

    (Josef Stalin)

    Mew

  • laodalisque

    …to take conservatism to the next level, but the timid and the tepid are too scared to take the chance on him. Those who whine about archbishop SweaterVest’s theocratic ambitions or MattelMitt’s floppy plasticity should be FLOCKING to The Newtmeister. The fact that they are hesitant about him shows only that they’re in the process of being bested and demoralised by the GOP establishment’s self-serving declarations about MattelMitt’s inevitability. So sad and so pathetic that the conservative electorate should be treated like a mindless herd to be stampeded to the acclamation of the party’s preanointed darling–that’s the tactic of the hard left.

  • WillWong

    And then decide which candidate has the best plans to solve the problems confronting our Union.

    I propose that our Union is in a very deep hole financially, economically, morally, and politically and unless we do a quick and painful 180, the Union will continues its inexorable march down the road to serfdom.

    Based on that, Newt’s bold and visionary ideas offers our one and ONLY hope.

  • soljerblue

    and neither is very much of Virginia. So I suspect you’re a Yankee who’s never spent lots of time here. As a retired journalist who spent 20 years covering politics in Alabama and other parts of the South, I can tell you that much with certainty. Romney will not fare well here, at least as far as the primaries are concerned.

  • soljerblue

    I’m a member of my county GOP executive committee, and I will NOT vote for Romney. I will write in a name — not Obama’s, certainly. But I would rather have the Senate, keep the House, and see four more years of Obama for exactly the reasons Joey describes. Voting for a weak imitation of Obama who will likely split the Senate GOP caucus, who will not work to repeal Obamacare, and who is in no discernable way a conservative — well, I just won’t swallow that RINO castor oil. Sorry. Call me whatever you like, but the lesser of two evils is still evil.

  • cacharlie

    For several years I’ve thought Bobby Jindal would be a winning nominee for the GOP. After viewing a whole lot of candidates, I am even more convinced because he appears to combine the governing assets of Palin and Perry and qualities I like in Cain, Thompson and JC Watts. So, I suppose that’s why
    I keep wondering if there’s any chance a Newt/Jindal ticket is possible. I see us getting past Newt’s liabilities through Jindal’s draw, capitalizing on Newt’s ability to shake things up and having Jindal poised to close a better deal for us in four years. Does any of this make sense to any of you?

  • superpatriot

    But Newt’s gott do real well on Tues.

    Anyone know how he’s doiing in Tennessee and Oklahoma?

  • tommyfrisco

    Newt would easily win the South and Santorum would help win the Midwest, I also think it would be a well-balanced ticket. It’s a common sense thing for me since I believe they are the only true Republicans left in the race. Romney and Paul have formed an alliance which can be offset by a Gingrich/Santorum alliance.

    Aside from that, below are a few other points I wish to offer for consideration:

    1. Moderates, like Romney, can win elections from time to time, but the most we can hope for is that the rate of Government growth and spending is slowed, It is never reversed. At this stage, we need an Administration that will reverse course dramatically. As for Supreme Court nominations, we would probably get another David Souter instead of someone who would stand with our conservative judges.

    2. As mentioned in comments above, Gingrich’s “baggage” will not be near as heavy in the General election as it has been in the GOP Primary.

    3. I think Romney supporters would more easiliy support and vote for Newt or Santorum in the General than Newt or Santourm voters would in supporting and voting for Romney in the General.

    4. The experts seem to agree that the Republican base must be energized to defeat Obama, yet most admit that Romney does NOT energize the base. There is only one candidate who got standing ovations in the GOP debates…Newt Gingrich.

    5. If Romney wins the nomination, he will certainly move towards the middle and perhaps further. His confidence grew after winning Florida and soon after said the minimum wage should be adjusted by the COLA. Thus, there will be even more conservative voters staying home than those that are already making that claim.

    6. Super Tuesday will tell us a lot, but it won’t tell us who will win the nomination. If Santorum wins Ohio and Gingrich wins Georgia, I think that will prove that, individually they cannot win the nomination, but that their alliance would defeat Romney. The news of Romney supporting the Federal mandate for ObamaCare should also be the nail in the coffin for his campaign.

  • westcoastpatriette

    http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/Latest-Poll-Gingrich-Leading/2012/03/03/id/431292?s=al&promo_code=E52C-1

  • trickamsterdam

    (i.e., better than Santorum)

    True, but don’t underestimate Romney. He’d shamelessly use the Super Pac and surrogates to attack Ryan and Daniels on Entitlement Reform….this would be no different than attacking Newt for not being loyal to Reagan, when Newt was fighting for Reagan and Romney was literally saying “I was an Independent in the 80s, not part of that Reagan Bush”.

    There doesn’t need to be any logical consistency to any of it.

    He attacks Ryan for his Budget early in the campaign, then Newt at the end of the campaign for being in against Ryan’s budget. His surrogates then shamelessly connect the dots for him and clean up the mess.

    If there’s anything in Daniels personal life w/ the wife, he uses it. He threatens Ryan’s career through back channels if Ryan ever wants Senate or Governor and Romney is President.

    Also, keep in mind it’s likely only one “white knight” enters the Race, so he only has to deal with one.

    Yeah, Romney would have had a good chance of taking the person out. Very little chance of taking out Obama, but Romney’s surrogates don’t think about that. Rpmney’s campaign has always been about Romney…very little has been about Obama or the United States. His supporters will quite simply accept anything he does whatsoever w/out the slightest thought or hesitation.

    It’s why we can never take Ann Coulter Jen Rubin or most of the beautiful boys at NRO seriously ever again. And they aren’t the only ones.

    ***

    @ Jsobieski:

    “Perry supports instate tution for illegals, and he supports amnesty.
    Newt/Heritage supports a barebones mandate, and they are no different than Romney or Obama.
    Its time to make alternative plans . . .
    Obama supports an income tax.
    Romney supports an income tax.
    Both candidates support income taxes, so what is the difference?” – JSobieski

    You put in as cogent a way as I’ve read, what Romney’s basic campaign strategy to deal w/ conservatives Primary elections is. Just confusion and “we’re basically all the same, and I’m the most electable so choose me”.

    The problem ,of course, is it won’t work in the General election. See, unfortunately, for Romney…Obama’s supporters do see a difference between Obama and Romney. They like Obama (80/10 approval rating w/ Democrats).

    But Romney’s supporters (because of his strategy in the R Primary) won’t. That cuts down his volunteers, donation, and turnout. And it makes him spend in Red States while Obama only has to worry about the Swing States.

    And we know from the small percentage Nader got in 2000 (not even 3%) how deadly losing only 1/50th of the Base can be.

    Romney’s a complete, narcissistic fool. But his followers who think he’s electable are positively stupid.

  • David123

    1. The independents will vote for Romney because they’ll assume he’s lying about his pro-life stance and other professed conservative positions

    and

    2. The base will vote for Romney because of his pro-life stance and other professed conservative positions

    Romney will lose at least 1pct of the pet-lover vote that Rick and Newt can get, because Romney took a trip with the dog on the roof of his car.

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

    how that translates to roof seating…I think if dog owners are better educated, they will flock to the GOP.

  • David123

    for Illinois Governor after airing an ad that accused Brady of being anti-pet.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/10/13/bill-brady-dogs-ad-pat-quinn_n_761135.html

    Kirk (R) won the race for Illinois senator the same year. The anti-pet ad probably made the difference in the governor’s race.

    There’s a big difference between having your dog in the car with you, with the window open enough for sniffing the breeze, and having the dog on the roof of the car.

  • jermane2020

    …can you please find out the answer to something that has always puzzled me: that dogs love sticking their heads out of car windows, but the one thing that will make a dog most want to maul you to death is if you blow in his face.

    Find the answer to that one and I’ll promote you for the presidency and two Nobel Prizes — the Nobel for peace and the Nobel for medicine (closest I see to psychology). The second prize is particularly important to note, since it seems anyone can win the Nobel Peace Price these days (well, if the committee believes he subscribes to the “correct” ideology), and literally without actually doing anything.

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

    on myself…sad

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

    woof

  • jermane2020

    He is really pitching hard this promise of delivering $2.50/gallon gasoline. Although I wouldn’t put it past Newt to be confident in some superior insight on some relatively esoteric analytical matter (in which he lacks expertise) that actually didn’t square with the facts or expert consensus, I find it hard to believe that he really believes any president can very substantially lower gas prices through federal policies of expanded drilling (and Keystone) within a few years or even beyond. It’s total B.S.

    There are good reasons for the federal government to expand drilling more aggressively than the Obama Administration has — more jobs, more tax revenue (i.e., lower deficits and/or less the rest of us have to pay in taxes), and lower trade deficit. But please let’s stop enabling candidates and pundits on our side to B.S. on drilling’s potential impact on gas prices. All that does is hurt our side’s credibility and lose votes in general elections when swing voters eventually hear/read one oil economist/expert after another point out that such claims are total B.S.

    We will win if we get the facts right, argue honestly, and make sense. The high road will get us there. Taking the low road, or traveling ignorantly and sloppily on any road, will not get us there, at least not nearly as soon.

  • jermane2020

    If only he could have claimed it was a hybrid pick-up. Then the whole story would have netted out gaining votes from that segment of voters.

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

    It a lot

  • jermane2020

    As long as you got you didn’t get your muscle and personal energy for pushing from meat, that should win you votes with that segment.

  • tommyfrisco

    than just increased drilling to reduce the cost of gasoline. He also plans to remove the unecessary mandates and regulations that the Obama administration has place upon the gasoline refineries that dramatically increases their cost of doing business. As I’m sure you know, many refineries are closing down because they can no longer make a profit.

    As for the $2.50 per gallon issue, Newt said that price is possible if all of his energy plan is implemented. If you know why $2.50 is not longer possible, please provide supporting evidence. (see link rules below)

    I’d also like to ask you why you think expanded (domestic) drilling won’t help to lower gas prices. Can you provide a few links to articles from the oil industry or commodities market that makes you feel the way you do? Please don’t include links from media matters, the huffington post or newspaper articles.

    I’m glad you agree that Newt’s plan will create “more jobs, more tax revenue (i.e., lower deficits and/or less the rest of us have to pay in taxes), and lower trade deficit.” Just don’t forget the trillions of dollars in royalties that the Federal Government will receive from increased drilling on Federally-owned land. That’s the most painless way of paying off our national debt.

  • buster93

    Jeb wins hands down and so does America. 2016 is very far away and by then Obamacare is in place=socialized medicine. You can already feel it with increased health care insurance, shortages of medicines and backorders of medical supplies. I have been in the medical field for 26 years and I see the changes . Scary.
    Romney demo for health care given to Barack = no thanks to Romney.
    No thanks to Rick Santorium for voting for the debt ceiling raised 4–5 times.Also the endorsement of Spector was the nail in the coffin for Obamacare and us.

    Paul has great ideas but he is not winning
    Newt has the experience , debate experience , but less money also tried to listen to the audio on ABC Sunday show and you couldn’t hear him.?
    Leads me to yes I was a Rick Perry supporter and I live in Texas and the comments he received at he first debate about illegals in Texas and college tuition were treated harshly. I do believe increased border security with boots on the ground and drones would help.
    Can we get off the birth control issue. This is spinning out out of control . Americans have worse issues with illegal drugs, also prescription drug abuse.
    Can we get back on the subject of jobs, and energy, drilling .
    Education and a positive message.
    Ann Coulter may not agree with me .
    Jeb would connect with voters now and not just in 2016.
    I guess I am looking for the best canididate who is intelligent ,likeable, can raise money fast , and beat Barack Obama.
    Jeb Bush /Condi Rice.
    If I get the word Amnesty again you need to look further !!!
    Another Bush in the White House yes . Lets get done to business !!
    Also if we don’t get with the program the House and Senate could get back to Dems with Obama in office. Not good at all!!

  • vaaztx

    Didn’t CO vote three weeks ago?

  • vaaztx

    ?followed by a real Republican in 2016. Or 8 years of Romney.

    I can’t decide which option is worse.

  • vaaztx

    ?before Texas gets to vote.

    By which point in time my choice will be the Sophie’s Choice of 8 years of Romney or 4 years of Obama followed by a real Republican.

  • vaaztx

    ?that allow straight-party voting the hard-core ideologue voters on both sides of the aisle represent only about 50% of the total electorate. This is fairly consistent between Presidential and non-Presidential years, though it’s increasing incrementally. That 50% is split pretty evenly, even in deep-red/deep-blue states.

    Looking back at the post civil war elections, excluding the 4-way race of 1912, the losing candidate from either party has bottomed out at 37%.

    Of more important note is that 60% of voters turnout in Presidential years, whereas 40% turnout in off-years.

    There are approximately 220 million vote-eligible citizens (citizen, between 18 and dead, not incarcerated) in the USA. A bit under 135 million of them will turnout in November. 68 million (34 million on each side) will vote straight Democrat or straight Republican. 100 million (50 million on each side) will still vote for the Democratic or Republican nominee even if that person is found in bed with a live boy or dead girl. Assuming no legitimate third party contenders 58 million people already know they are voting for Obama (that’s 8 million lean Democrat). 62 million people will probably vote for the GOP nominee (that’s 12 million lean Republican). That leaves 15 million people (or 7%) who are always persuadable or if you count the leaners 35 million who are sometimes persuadable (26%), and 85 million who will simply never vote.

    That’s 27 million people that Romney needs to persuade to vote for him in November, to actively choose him over Obama, and to not simply stay home or vote third party.

    I’m not sold. But by the time the primary reaches Texas, I doubt I’ll still have a choice.

  • vaaztx

    ?or an outright theft?

  • vaaztx

    ?FL and AZ being “winner-take-all” when everything before April 1 was supposed to be proportional.

    I also don’t get how the RNC is allocating delegates. How is GA getting 79 delegates when bigger, and arguably more important, OH is only getting 66?

  • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

    The Primary election is in June. That’s the one that counts.

  • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

    The Primary election is for other statewide offices. The GOP Presidential candidate is still chosen in a smoke-filled back room in Colorado.

  • Juggernaut

    Seriously, go look at Jeb’s record, in fact Google “Jeb Bush’s accomplishments” for the high points.

    You are delusional no doubt.

  • Juggernaut

    performance does not put Jeb in the same category. While we’ve never seen a family trifecta, your opinion sounds more like fearing he’ll follow the family path than anything to worry about. Jeb ran FL better than George W did TX.

    Sure a convention will tick some off,mostly the Romneybots but who cares so long as he loses.

    I cast my vote for Newt in GA today.

  • Vegas_Rick

    nt

  • JudgeDeborah

    Newt has lost 25 of 27 states. He has finished dead last in 15 of 27 states, which is dead last in over half of the states.

    He has 3rd place finishes in 5 states, 2nd place in 4 states, and 1st place in only 2 states.

    Newt has finished dead last in 4 more states than all his 1st, 2nd, and 3rd place finishes combined.

    Newt has a losing record with every other candidate:

    Newt 4 Romney 23

    Newt 4 Santorum 22 (Neither Newt nor Santorum were on the ballot in VA so there are only 26 counted between them. VA is counted as a loss to Romney and Paul since Newt failed to make the ballot.)

    Newt 11 Paul 16

    Every other candidate has beaten Newt more times than Newt has beaten them.

    This is P.A.T.H.E.T.I.C.

    Newt, for the love of our country, please drop out and let Santorum surge!

  • Scope

    any more what Gingrich does. He is headed for Ron Paul territory in the polls. I read that he gave a speech in IL where he went back again to his “big ideas” like space exploration, which contributed to the start of a free fall for his campaign in Fla. where he proposed “moon colonies.” He just can’t manage to open his mouth without inserting one or both of his feet. Gingrich may be willing to push on, but the voters have decided en masse to move on.

    Hey who knows, he may be trying to break a record for the most state losses of any presidential candidate ever. He’s well on his way.