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Obama’s DOOM #EERS

By: Erick Erickson (Diary)  |  June 1st, 2012 at 06:00 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

The economy is headed in the tank and now the lefties are in a panic. Their stimulus did not work. The President faces defeat. Uh-oh.

I am stuffed. Been feeding on the tears of the left all day over this. It’s terrible economic news. The funny part is they really do think all we needed was more stimulus. Sigh. We’ll get into it tonight on the radio.

You can listen live tonight on the WSB live stream and call in at 1-800-WSB-TALK. The show is live from 6pm to 8pm ET.

Consider this an open thread.

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  • Ender

    that goes something like this:

    President Obama shown “evolving” on Gay Marriage. Fading as the unemployment rate going up, GDP numbers falling. Romney saying “As President Obama latches on any possible issue to make news, other than trying to fix the economy and bringing the jobs back, our country is suffering”

    The ineptitude and inaction must be hammered immediately as this jobs report is sinking in.

  • Ausonius

    Thus spake a stock trader around 4:00 P.M. at the (rather large) bank where my son works as a “Senior Analyst” (age 29) in Finance.

    A 275 point drop is not the end of the world: the market will probably go up 100 points or more on Monday as bargain hunters come in. So the trader’s ebullience is no doubt premature.

    Still…things are not the best, especially when one realizes that the unemployment numbers are already cooked in favor of MAObama.

    We will see how much of an ideologue BIG BRObama is: he can pull out a win with an agreement to maintain the tax rates of W. Bush as soon as possible, with a moratorium on all the tax increases from Hell-th Care (assuming that it is not found unconstitutional anyway), and a freeze on government spending.

    I suspect that he is not bright enough to do any of that, that his hatred of economic success is so deep that he will continue to follow socialist/communist beliefs about a centrally planned economy for creating an egalitarian paradise.

  • rsjt

    all we needed was more stimulus”

    This is always the excuse of the redistributionist. I no longer believe they do not know their economic theories are destined to fail each time. It is simply a weapon they weild against the free market systems they hate so much.

  • Ausonius

    You are quite right: the Left will keep saying that the reason their socialist ideas are not working is that the socialism is not deep enough: either a little more socialism or much more socialism and THEN things will be just fine.

    And when that fails, the Left repeats their argument. I saw just tonight on Larry Kudlow’s show on CNBC how Leftists like Robert Reich continue to edit away the facts so they can spout “fairness” agitprop and insist on more taxes and more handouts.

    Ask the Russians and other Eastern Europeans how well Communism worked before 1989. Ask the Chinese who lived through Mao’s murderous enforcement of communist egalitarianism in the 1950′s and 1960′s how well everything worked.

  • checkmate2012

    They (meaning the socialists in the White House et al) should be proud of their splendid accomplishments and now they want to double down to complete their destruction.

    Why ALL Americans can’t see this is beyond me…hopey changy I guess or gullible beyond reason.

  • http://impudent.edublogs.org/ kyle8

    even my old Died in the wool Democrat Mother In Law said she thought Obama was “in over his head”, and that Biden was a simpleton.

  • checkmate2012

    with Holder’s voter id war that it was an insult to Black people (she said she is Black and now lives in Dallas, moved here from Chicago) that they are too dumb to figure it out. Let’s hope more think like this smart lady.

  • Melody Warbington (rwm52)

    I heard that same call. To expand a little more for other who didn’t, the lady said she was a “Clinton” (Hillary) Democrat who argued with her relatives who were “Obama” Democrats, but that they all were insulted and disgusted by Holder’s comments. She said she had helped her great aunt back in 1980 get a state ID as well as her mother who didn’t drive with no problem at all.

  • checkmate2012

    & her O relatives lived in the Washington area- go figure, And Levin should sue DOJ for requiring ids at TSA- that would be a hoot!

    You’re a great woman and a patriot Ms. Melody :)

  • checkmate2012

    they can keep it off their balance sheets! Whoa. I’m not an economist but know that this is seriously dangerous and no one is talking about it. Thus my comment that keeping your money in your mattress or walls is a safer bet than banks.

    We’ve seen the strong arm tactics of this admin and they tend to get their way unfortunately (GM. BOFA). So beyond QE?, they now want to make the banks they forced to buy each other into buying bad debt?

    Someone with more in-depth knowledge of this should be speaking out against this insanity.

  • The_Gadfly

    Frankly, while I don’t recall the exact number, there was a 500-ish one day drop in the stock market under Reagan and in the middle of the recovery. I recall one of the profs at college being apopletic about it, while I just shrugged it off. He was off on a serious rant about it being the largest one day drop in the stock market EV-AR, and how it proved how asinine his policies were. I shrugged my shoulders and said something to the effect of, given the current level of the stock market, that’s a correction blip. I was right more right than he was. Within 2 days the market had regained 300 points.

    Obama’s problem is that the 275 point drop followed a long string of drops. A string long enough so that we’ve now lost all the gains the market made this year. And the U6 numbers are still up around 15% with another 5-7% hiding in the discouraged worker category. And the deteriorating situation in Greece. And the deteriorating situation in Spain. And Portugal sitting on the bubble for a deteriorating situation. And France sitting on that same bubble. Oh, and I’ve been hearing rumors the Great Chinese Machine is sitting on the same bubble. And his over-hyped housing numbers look to be collapsing again. You know, all the sorts of things someone grounded in real-fact world would expect given his economic and regulatory policies.

  • renl57

    Modern liberals have totally distorted John Maynard Keynes’ original theories in order to rationalize what they always wanted to do anyway–redistribute wealth.

    They have debased the term “Keynesian” to the point that it has lost any real meaning except as a mantra that liberals wave around without even knowing what Keynes’s theories were.

    Keynes was not a socialist by any means. He regarded government stimulus as a temporary and focused assist to the *private sector* whose markets had dried up in a depression. He did NOT regard it as some kind of down payment on socialism.

    Nor did he recommend coupling it with zillions of anti-business taxes and regulations.

    Nor would he have approved of a government stimulus package that consisted largely of aid to state and local governments, rather than as direct stimulus to the private sector.

    And having seen the Weimar Republic fail, Keynes would have been horrified to see America today partly financing its government spending spree with foreign debt.

    Still, liberals know that they can give any piece of left-wing legislation a veneer of respectability just by calling it “Keynesian.”

  • cactusjack

    just fine, but just saying….on the Unemployment news of yesterday, were we a parliamentary system of government, the leader of the lower legislative body (= John Boenher in our system) would have called for an immediate vote of no confidence on the present Government; the votet woud have passed, and Mr Obama and his socialist minions would have found their government dissolved – and themselves tossed out on their ears. The economic mess he has created in three and a half years, IS really that bad, accomplice MSM notwithstanding. We can’t no confidence Obama now, but hold that thought until Nov 6.

  • commonsenseobserver

    :P

  • cactusjack

    while I am gaming this government fantasy scenario, imagine Prime Minister Ted Poe and Chief Whip Darrel Issa. Be still my beating heart…

  • btpull

    and Obama to focus “100%” on jobs.

  • commonsenseobserver

    The June jobs report will likely reveal whether this month was just a blip, and whether Obama will be saved by the summer.

  • APA Guy

    “Hiring screeched to a near-standstill last month, with U.S. companies adding the fewest jobs in nine months and the unemployment increasing to 9.2%., according to a Department of Labor report released Friday.”

    http://articles.nydailynews.com/2011-07-08/news/29771043_1_unemployment-rate-job-gains-jobs-report

  • APA Guy

    Consumer Confidence…jobless claims…GDP…earnings and labor reports…

    There is a confluence of factors pointing toward a more sour economy heading into the summer. He’s in serious, serious trouble..and so is our economy, unfortunately. But Obama’s policies have put us here…no one deserves more blame than this guy.

  • Ausonius

    Constantly talking about more taxation for more spending on welfare, on hiring non-essential and non-productive government bureaucrats, and on “green companies” destined for bankruptcy, BIG BRObama and his European socialist comrades are blinded – apparently – by their ideology. The precipice of bankruptcy and the law of gravity will be avoided by throwing invented money into the chasm.

    I am skeptical – as are many – that the Treasury’s printing presses are actually producing real wealth for us. :)

    Yes, the Chinese bubble is there: and the clock is ticking for them as well.

  • btpull

    The economy is not growing fast enough to create a significant number of jobs. There is also too much uncertainty with potential tax increases, regulations, the world economy, Europe, impact of ObamaCare etc. for businesses to become aggressive in expanding and hiring.

    As the picture gets clearer and if it is looks positive hiring will pick-up, but that won’t be until the end of this year or beginning of next year as businesses prepare for 2013.

  • rightlane1111

    My argument on this was this…what does color, age have to do with registration?

    During the 2000 election, the DNC was into Century Village having people sign the ballots. I guess those were the ones that didn’t go through all the way and had to be divined :-)

    If your people can’t get to register in lieu of being couch potatoes…that is their choice…not the State’s fault. As far as the elderly, the DNC in Florida has a system to register and even bring absentee ballots to their door.

    Now…about my remark concerning color. My point on Politico was the same as was made by this woman that MW referred to. The DNC is treating minorities as if they are too stupid to register. Talk about a slap in the face. My other point is…if they are illegal…that impugns the integrity of our election system. Non-citizens are not allowed to vote.

    So…I guess that people are starting to realize that they are being used as pawns by the DNC while at the same time insinuating they are too stupid to register.

    I asked the question…What does “color” have to do with registration. No answer on Politico.

  • rightlane1111

    You are right with your assumptions….but Ausonius is also incorrect when he says that facts do not concern Leftists….meaning that they are completely to blame for this mess.

    When the TPM started up…they wanted the spending to stop. That was their big push. They wanted our Constitution adhered to…but the spending…or Taxed Enough was their motivation. We sent people to Congress to get this taken care of and some of the votes out of the House have sickened me. Boehner “blinks” too darn much and it is all on our dime. Reid…he won’t even bring anything up for a vote and the MSM covers his behind by not reporting that.

    So…Europe with its Keynesian economic system has proved that this does not work. The Communist block (meaning Russia and South American leaning communists) will prove that their system does not work as it has in the past. China…the model that Obama is following to a degree will suffer because we are all out of money. It comes down to why the TPM was founded…STOP THE SPENDING. Corruption in our government is terrible, adherence to our Constitution dwindles by the day and Obama keeps passing his laws through regulation.

    I sometimes wonder if we have not gone over the cliff. The people in control of the Republican Party (Boehner and McConnell) have to stop this…if only through suing Obama via SCOTUS…if their could be such an action.

    I guess it comes down to….everyone is “tapped out” and China…will fall also. Bad…bad.

  • lineholder

    Putin will be meeting Ahmadinejad at a summit in China????

    http://my.news.yahoo.com/putin-meet-irans-ahmadinejad-china-123121248.html

  • wbb1950

    As the Obama campaign and his big media surrogates struggle to reposition their man from the revolutionary leader they posited in 2008 to the conventional politician they posit now, who bears no responsibility for anything that goes wrong, the question is can it be done? The French have a saying on this?a revolution eats its children. In other words, those who lead a revolution do not necessarily end up enjoying the fruits of their labors and are more likely to become its victims. The other point is even when a revolutionary leader survives the transition, he does so by liquidate the Ancien R?gime before it can regroup and thwart his transformational plans. Castro is a case in point. Obama tried to banish FOX from the Washington Press Corps, and to place their programming under White House surveillance by Dunn. But he failed. Furthermore, the centerpiece of his transformational agenda?Obamacare, is likely to suffer an ignominious death at the hands of the Supreme Court. He may think he can rally the base around that defeat , and conservatives may worry that he will, but those hopes or apprehensions are overshadowed by the fact that said reversal will be seen as one more failure in governance which must be explained away to an increasingly skeptical audience, as the economic picture grows bleaker by the day. The pundits tell us this will be a close election. But if people came to realize that to support him is to endorse continuing failure I wonder. To me that is the message coming out of California, courtesy of Rassmussen?that today in the bluest of blue states his approval rating has slipped below 50%. To me, that harbingers a landslide for the Republican challenger similar to 1980, as opposed to a narrow victory for the incumbent as the Obama campaign and his fellow travelers believe will happen.

  • demann

    he can declare a state of emergency in the united States and use his newly re-minted “Emergency Powers” executive orders to remain in office.

  • acat

    Further, do you think the rest of the government (i.e. Congress, Supremes, Armed Services*) will let him get away with it?

    There’s a reason our founders set up “Checks and balances”, eh?

    Mew

    *note that soldiers’ oaths are to the constitution, not the current occupant of 1600 pennsylvania, eh?

  • Dave_A

    Clinton, by our Fringe…
    W Bush by their fringe…
    And now Obama again…

    It simply doesn’t work that way… For one, there is no ‘emergency power’ that lets a President suspend elections and continue in office.

    The second issue, is that even if Obama thought himself the next Hugo Chavez… Declaring himself president for life means nothing without the backing of the military, and we’re sort of conditioned that dictatorship is not an acceptable form of American government, regardless of the politics of a would-be dictator. The same applies to most armed federal civilian agents….

    Presidency for life – or even the usurpation of additional terms – is not possible in the USA… The folks in charge of America’s guns won’t go along with it… Without even considering a pissed off armed citizenry… And guns trump proclamations, every time…

  • demann

    that does not mean it cannot happen. History is full of people that dies saying “they can’t do that, it is impossible in this (state, country, nation).” One would be a fool not to look at all probabilities. I know of quite a few military members (one of which, to my dismay, is my own son) that would gladly remain loyal to the O. I especially point out that the U.S. Air Force, where I spent 21 years of my life, is rampant with liberals. It is the only branch where members that don’t want to carry a gun or physically fight, can have a military career with less risk than the average service member in other branches. Please don’t mistake that as a dig at the USAF or its members. The USAF has, also, some of the most die-hard loyal patriots that I have ever known, but, there ARE a lot of liberals in its ranks.

  • acat

    Friend tells the story from his small christian high school .. late spring, 1973. Weekly chapel service, one day a week a select group of kids put on a “performance” of some sort. Usually poorly-played acoustic guitar and off-key singing.

    This week, though .. five guys in fatigues slam open the back doors and march in…. (the realism is somewhat ruined by the converse all-stars and farm work boots they’re wearing …) One of the more liberal teachers stands up and shouts “That damned Nixon’s finally done it!” and the gymnasium/auditorium went into an uproar.

    Mew

    (the actual point of the piece was apparently an anti-war protest …)

  • lineholder

    h/t Hot Air

    Have you seen this? It’s an invitation by Anna Wintour (who supposedly was the inspiration for The Devil Wears Prada) for dinner with Obama, M Obama, Sarah Jessica Parker and Anna Wintour. The left’s version of the 1% club, eh? And the rest of us should be “honored” I guess?

    Geez, this woman is creepy! Notice the advertisement for the new Obama 2012 fashion line? (Clue: the scarf)

  • acat

    Then he’s not “loyal to the O” .. he’s loyal to his chain of command.

    Big, huge, enormous difference.

    Mew

  • acat

    Is this really the best the O can do?

    Mew

  • lineholder

    Guess that is a great honor too, eh? Howard Stern and all, you know.

  • David123

    Just wondering …

    By the way, where is Bo?

  • lineholder

    Boy, they’re really scraping it with this though, aren’t they?

  • Viet71

    Loyalty is owed by a soldier to the United States.

    The soldier is obligated to obey a lawful order of any superior officer (or NCO).

    Obama, as president, is CIC of the armed forces.

    One interesting question, in perhaps not just a theoretical sense, is the extent to which orders he has issued to the Joint Chiefs and other high-ranking officers are unlawful.

    IMO, his “kill list” procedure is dictatorial in nature and violates Separation of Powers, given that drone strikes are not surgical in nature.

  • lineholder

    Man, donations going into the Obama re-election campaign must REALLY be bad!!!

  • lineholder

    All kinds of questions about the menu for this dinner!

  • acat

    that Obama will jump the chain of command very far… so I had not considered the possibility of the O ordering damann’s son around directly…. which was the point I was addressing.

    The joint chiefs are in their positions, in part, because they have the abilities and skills to identify and properly react to illegal orders.

    It’s a feature, not a bug.

    Mew

  • acat

    Don’t think conservatism is going to make many inroads in Manhattan…

    On the other paw, conspicuous consumption when we’re in an economic depression is just a tad gauche, don’t you know…

    Mew

  • lineholder

    Good article at the Telegraph about what’s going on in the EU right now.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9307106/Spain-is-in-total-emergency-the-EU-in-total-denial.html

    First question….credibility? Is article accurate?

    Second question: What does this mean?

    “To repeat (sorry, but it does seem necessary) what I have said before on these pages: however much she is beaten about the head by blowhards in Brussels, Rome, London and Washington, Angela Merkel cannot let the ECB (in effect, the Bundesbank) print money to soak up the debts of Spain, Greece or Italy. To do that would not simply be to fly in the face of her own electorate?s wishes. (What the hell, you might say ? every European political leader is doing that.) It would be to contravene the constitution which was enforced upon Germany by the post-war settlement. In other words, it would be both undemocratic and illegal within the terms of the German nation state which, for all the hokum about European political union, still exists.”

    When it comes to the comments “It would be to contravene the constitution which was enforced upon Germany by the post-war settlements” and then referencing this as being illegal…what would the outcome of a violation of these laws mean to the German nation? In a practical sense?

    “Play time” is over for me today. Have to get some work done. Check back in later. Thanks.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    The Federal Republic of Germany was founded out of the French, British, and American zones of occupied Germany. There were four zones, you see: those three, plus the Soviet zone. Post-war tensions started to grow pretty quick, as the Soviets were turning their occupied territories Communist, while the western powers were coordinating (first with the creation of the joint British-American “Bizonia,” then with the French zone joining in.

    Eventually these became their own countries, with the western powers propping up the BRD (West Germany). Germany was still occupied, and the Grundgesetz (Basic Law, their Constitution) could not be adopted without the approval of the western occupying powers.

    The Soviets did the same thing with the DDR (East Germany) and its founding documents.

    I’m not sure it’s fair to say it was forced on Germany, but we had veto power on it.

  • lineholder

    what happens then? Legally, under the agreement, what consequences would there be for Germany?

    This is the first time I realized that Merkel’s actions aren’t entirely because of economics/against the will of the people of Germany. And I make no claims to having the depth of knowledge in world history to know what the provisions were included in the settlement you mentioned.

    Another question…I know that most of the nations in the EU have not only a common currency to the EU but also individual currencies within the nations. I’m assuming that Germany’s is one of the strongest and most stable of the bunch…correct?

    If they go with a centralized bank/currency…Germany would be absorbing more than just the debt of other nations, wouldn’t they? Wouldn’t going to only EU currency (and eliminating their national currency) undermine Germany’s trade balance with nations outside the EU?

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    The occupation ended at reunification, which was accomplished by a treaty between the four occupying powers and the two Germanies.

    So really in practice that that means is that the German Constitutional Court would intervene, and would likely be backed up by the German electorate.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Those were ended when the Euro was issued.

    They spent years with their national currencies gradually harmonizing under the “European Currency Unit”, which eventually became the Euro. You can see early mention of this in Margaret Thatcher’s last questions,w here she talks about the possibility of a “hard ECU,” meaning what became the Euro.

  • gekster

    in the front.
    That will be two empty seats then.
    I’ll go with acat to Crawford and give my seat to Stricia.

  • lineholder

    Would that change by going to a centralized bank in the EU? Would the debt of all the nations within the EU be “clumped” into one total?

  • aesthete

    including Germany and most of the other countries being discussed, shelved their national currencies when they adopted the Euro. Part of the question when it comes to the crisis is to what extent the Euro will be replaced by national currencies when all is said and done.

  • aesthete

    Everyone in the Eurozone shelved their national currencies, but there are a few other countries in Europe that use the Euro in addition to their national currencies.

  • lineholder

    What would lead them back in the direction of relying more on national currencies rather than the Euro, aesthete?

  • lineholder

    Just to clarify…are the countries you’re referring to in Europe that maintain their own national currency inside or outside the EU?

  • Common_Cents

    nt

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    A Euro is a Euro.

    However different Eurozone nations sell their own bonds, and those bonds can have different values and interest rates.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    There are a few European Union nations that use their own currencies still, the UK being the most prominent, but most of these are former eastern bloc nations not yet let in.

    But everyone in the Eurozone uses only the Euro. The old French, Dutch, German, Italian, Greek, etc. currencies are gone. They were withdrawn and at this point you can only cash them in for Euros at the central bank, or sell them to collectors.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    We don’t think of a dollar as changing its value depending on what state you’re in.

  • Dave_A

    The problem with the EU is that it’s not a union of equals…

    This was also the problem with the US prior to 1865 – except that we had 2 ‘blocs’ (agricultural south, industrial north) and Europe has a wide spread of countries at different levels of development.

    The problem for the countries IN the EU, is simple: How do you unwind to indigenous currencies, while maintaining market valuation of money?

    Modern money being what it is, any country that leaves the Euro overnight will be hit with very severe inflation, as the market valuation for ‘Economy too crappy to be in the EU anymore’ will be very, very low…

    Any country that leaves the Euro but pegs their new national currency to (x) Euros will be flattened by deflation. (The same applies to ‘Dollar-ized’ South American economies, or to anyone foolish enough to adopt a gold or silver standard)….

    There’s simply no ‘nice’ way out of it once you’re in…

  • lineholder

    okay, call me really stupid here, Neil…you or someone else with greater knowledge than my own will just have to spell it out for me.

    Why and how does going to a centralized banking system make a difference?

    It is just a redistribution of wealth? Or is it also because of a broader disbursement of debt? Or am I totally missing the point entirely?

    Macroecon isn’t one of my strong suits.

  • aesthete

    but there are some countries within Europe that use both their own currencies and the Euro — some want to be let into the Eurozone, but others are in a state of flux (which is why I corrected myself). Everyone in the Eurozone uses only the Euro*.

    *Officially, anyways: the informal economies in countries like Greece use the drachma quite frequently, among other forms of payment.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    You’re skimming. The UK is indeed properly part of the European Union, however it is not part of the Eurozone (European Monetary Union, one of the pillars of the EU that the UK has been granted an exception to).

  • Dave_A

    Each nation has it’s own separate national debt, separate tax policy, and separate interest rates…

    And that’s a big part of the problem…

    Europe could have done well as a NAFTA-style free trade organization (what the EU was originally) with no monetary integration…

    They also might have done well as a United States of Europe *if* they had managed to come to an agreement of what that would look like.

    However, there is NO CHANCE that the current system of half-a-federation/half-independent-nations could EVER work…

    They have a European currency, European law, and European courts…

    But separate national budgets, separate national debts, separate tax policy, and separate military forces…

    It’s a ‘half-country’, and as we all know half-assing something rarely works better than either not doing it, or going all-in….

  • aesthete

    but once the first country is out, the costs for leaving the Eurozone are diminished for other members — which is why there’s a large focus on making sure that Greece doesn’t leave. The Euro is an inherently unstable arrangement, and I agree with Friedman’s negative forecasts on the Euro’s feasibility long-term (which have largely been borne out).

    I will point out that the dollarized economies in S and Central America are doing better than their counterparts, even given the initial deflation (thinking of Peru and Panama).

  • aesthete
  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    The ECB from its founding was supposed to be different from the Federal Reserve. Our central bank is also under orders to try to keep the economy healthy, as well as to be a lender of last resort.

    The ECB is only supposed to monitor for inflation, not to care about unemployment or to be a lender of last resort.

    The PIIGS want the ECB to be more like the Federal Reserve. Germany Constitutionally can’t let that happen.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Which is how I know you skimmed my comment. :)

  • Dave_A

    EG, Argentina…

    Also, the US monetary policy is just a tad less inflexibly fanatical than Germany…

  • aesthete

    What they don’t have are any credible means for forcing political change on profligate countries that are dragging the Euro down…

    The Stability and Growth Pact was designed to keep countries honest, by taking them to court and fining them if they didn’t stick to an < 60% debt:GDP ratio, and an < 3% deficit:GDP ratio. The mechanisms for punishment were toothless, and so now the pro-Euro forces are trying to 1) bail out the profligate countries, and 2) forcing these countries to adopt austerity measures (mostly in the form of higher taxes, but also in the case of Greece with some government cuts) so that this crisis doesn't happen again. The profligate countries are trying to avoid austerity to the extent possible — they would like to stay in the Euro, since it would be painful to leave, but have no interest in changing the structure of their governments and want a bailout without the strings. Some of these governments are close enough to the edge that they are threatening to leave the Euro if they don't get no-strings-attached bailouts. The non-profligate countries have a political divide between elites, who are pro-Euro (because of the utility of a common currency for trade exports), and grassroots, who by and large are opposed to bailing out the profligate countries. None of the "grassroots" in any of these countries is particularly interested in a stronger EU at the expense of their own sovereignty, which is what would be required to avoid a similar catastrophe in the future.

  • aesthete

    about lender of last resort functions for the ECB.

  • aesthete

    I have been know to skim from time to time…

  • lineholder

    Making it more complicated than it needed to be, I think.

    Thanks.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    .

  • lineholder

    that they hold to what aesthete has mentioned below, and because of the specifics in the post-war agreement with Germany, the nation has held to it whereas other nations had no such legal obligations.

    Am I getting that part of it right?

  • aesthete

    I guess that’s true, but when you’re talking about >100% inflation a month (in the good months!), any sane form of monetary policy (to include dollarization) is going to involve lots of pain and lots of deflation.

    I will agree with you that Germanic monetary policy is a good deal more inflexible than our own, but I wouldn’t call that a bad thing, per se — just in the context of the Euro crisis.

  • lineholder

    Thank you…and I can’t say all the time because you might let it go to your head or something.

  • aesthete

    Some countries (particularly the Nordic countries and the Low Countries) have more or less stuck to the terms of agreement despite no legal requirements in their laws… it’s mostly southern Europe + Ireland which are presenting problems vis a vis sovereign debt.

  • lineholder

    Seriously thought, aesthete, if Germany has legal limitations included in their Constitution that do not allow them to go along with this idea of a centralized banking system in the EU….

    Then wouldn’t it be better for them to just withdraw altogether? Or is that even an option?

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    The Germans think inflation played a major role in the rise of the Nazis. So they fear inflation deeply.

  • lineholder

    That’s a societal influence that I wasn’t aware of. Makes sense, all things considered.

    What kind of inflation could the Euro be looking at if the situation doesn’t improve soon?

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I think they probably could get away with a lot more than the Germans are comfortable with, and still keep inflation in check.

  • lineholder

    You say they probably still have options where inflation is concerned.

    Germany has legal restraints that won’t allow them to participate in a centralized banking system.

    If Germany extracts itself from the EU…does it still have those options?

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    If Germany exited EMU and revived the Mark, then that would remove the greatest obstacle to the ECB becoming more like the Fed.

  • aesthete

    there’s not really much point to the Eurozone, I would think.

  • lineholder

    From what I can tell, they need Germany to be included in the ECB for stability as much as for revenue reasons. Without Germany, how well would the Eurozone survive? Which explains why they’re putting so much pressure on Germany, regardless of the legal limitations

    So, the debt within the Eurozone would become accumulative, just like it is in the states…each state may have its debts, but it is all accumulated into the gross debt of U.S.

    Debt per population for a nation like Germany would probably see an increase in comparison to what it is now. Tax rates would have to be restructured. The nations each lose a fair amount of autonomy in decision making on financial matters.

    Ironic…I bet Germany is looking at states like CA and MI, comparing it to Greece, Italy, Spain, etc., and saying “we don’t want to be like the US” at the same time we’re looking at Europe and saying “we don’t want to go the way of Greece”

  • Tbone

    Minor in pool.

  • lineholder

    With all the talk about what’s going on in FL with the DOJ…there may be another approach that can be taken on this where dead voters are concerned.

    ICD-9-CM coding terminology includes specific codes that signify death of a patient. Most health care orgs keep this data in aggregated files (for calculation of mortality rate purposes) Third-party payers usually get this information as well. I don’t know what the legalities of it might be in obtaining access to this data, but it is possible that it could be used for voter registration verification purposes.

  • lineholder

    It isn’t that difficult to sort the MPI on the basis of ICD-9 codes (this is usually what is used to set up a disease index for morbidity calculations) Just sort numerically, isolate the codes pertaining to death, and you get a list of people who have died.

  • publious

    I’m sure most of those kids voted for Obama 4 years ago. Best viewed on You Tube Full Screen…

  • demsaresatanic

    is an odd prediction. How do you arrive at that conclusion?

  • Dave_A

    Because that’s what always happens when you peg a currency to an inflexibly valued item…

    Leaving the Euro but keeping a Euro peg makes things even worse than staying in the Euro, by being still married to Germanic monetary policy but having no ‘skin in the game’ as far as the value of the Euro is concerned – and thus providing absolutely no incentive for their needs to be considered when the value of the Euro is being determined…

    The absolute worst situation an economy can be in, is to have the value of it’s money married to a commodity that is outside the control of said economy’s internal markets…

    Be that Euros, Dollars, or Gold. The result, in every case, is either fatal deflation, or equally fatal repeated legislative currency devaluation….