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EDITOR OF REDSTATE

Today is Election Day in Wisconsin

By: Erick Erickson (Diary)  |  June 5th, 2012 at 04:46 AM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

It always makes me nervous for Republicans to be so giddy headed into an election. As we’ve seen from the President, overconfidence is a bad thing. Scott Walker could still lose. People must turn out to vote.

Today is election day in Wisconsin and if you are a RedState Reader in that state, go vote.

One of the things I hate about special elections is the absolute intellectual crap that will come from pundits on television tonight and tomorrow. Democrats who claimed the recall was a rejection of Republican overreach nationally now claim the recall cannot be interpreted as a reflection on national politics. Republicans are the opposite.

I remember being on CNN for several of the New York special elections in Republican districts that went Democrat. The Democrats on TV with me were gleeful that they were harbingers of big Democrat wins in 2010. It was exactly opposite when Anthony Weiner’s seat went GOP. Suddenly the Democrats would have you believe it was insignificant while the Republican would have you believe otherwise.

Through them all, I’ve maintained that special elections tell us very little about national politics. But there is one area where I think Wisconsin can show us a great deal about the national electoral outlook headed into November.

Technology.

While 2008 was proclaimed the year of technology in politics, it really wasn’t. Even the Obama campaign did not use technology as much as they would have you believe. 2012 is different. Both teams are using it and the GOP is playing catch up.

After the 2010 election cycle, GOP donors who had been pessimistic about 2012 started funding elaborate technological improvements in Republican get out the vote efforts (GOTV). The beauty of the Wisconsin recall is that the Democrats have handed the GOP a live test to make sure its technology adapted GOTV works. Without this recall, the GOP would be live testing its new tech on election day in November. That would not give them time to work out the bugs.

Now, in Wisconsin, an army of grassroots activists is going door to door testing systems to get Republican voters out to the polls. If Scott Walker wins handily, it will be a sure signal that the technology worked as intended. If he loses, the GOP will have to work overtime to fix its ground game in November.

One added benefit for the GOP is that thanks to the constant recall campaigns in Wisconsin, they have heavily organized the state down to the city block in city and town after city and town. If the state is very close in November, we can thank the unions for forcing the Republicans and Wisconsin Tea Party to get very, very detailed on their GOTV efforts.

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COMMENTS

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  • denoff51

    We are energized and we are ready to go. We have been this way since day one of this BS recall election. It was never reported, but we Conservatives were more fired up about all this more then the Dumbocrats. We will be there and we will be there in numbers too large to count. It will be a Victory for Liberty and God Given Rights. As Rush says “Don’t Doubt Me” or in Wisconsin’s case “Don’t Doubt Us.”.

  • The_Gadfly

    I think Wisconsin is different in the same way the Mass Senate race was different. We shouldn’t have Scott Brown as the Republican Senator from Mass. Much as I like that he arrived when he did and kept us from loosing our grip on the vine at the top of the cliff, the state is solid blue, practically communist red. That seat should have been won by a Dem. That it wasn’t was a harbinger.

    Something similar is going on in Wisconsin. Not necessarily the governor race, but what caused the recall. While I am in complete agreement with both the reforms and the necessity of those reforms, I also recognize they were and are RADICAL. The best way to ensure those reforms hold is for Walker and his Lt. Governor to win the race. But even if they lose, if the reforms stand, he will have accomplished something critical to saving our country. Because as others have pointed out elsewhere, as a result of those reforms, about 50% of the people who were previously forced to pay union dues which ultimately were spent to elect the farthest left candidates possible are now free of that bondage. In a state that is as deeply committed to unions and union idealism as Mass is blue. If it doesn’t stand, we are back to square one on fighting forced funding of leftist ideas. Either way it will be a harbinger.

  • http://redpillreport.net/ RedPillReport

    Erick is 100% correct. This recall election is, by no means, in the bag. The unions have mobilized their forces and have pushed hard to get their supporters to the polls. Their early voting numbers will likely be stong.

    Proponents of Governor Walker must avoid listening to the pundits in the media because I wouldn’t be surprised if they overstate the early votes for Barrett in an attempt to discourage late Walker supporters from heading to the polls.

    It’s important that Lt. Governor Kleefisch also wins because even if Walker wins, a Kleefisch loss will be spun into a moral victory for the unions. Don’t let that happen.

    Make sure you vote…and take 2 other people with you! It’s your time in the spotlight, Wisconsini. Make us all proud.

  • trutexan

    This was all the buzz in church last Sunday with a huge congregation anxiously anticipating the vote. They are so sick and tired of this mess and hope this shuts the opposition up (for a little while at least). Hopefully so much money has been spent by the Unions it puts a dent in their war chest that has them off in a corner licking their wounds.

    They are ready to double down in November too. Contrary to the close polls we hear about on the news, I suspect WI may go Red in Nov and voter fatigue is non-existant.

  • anjinconsulting

    I’d say this election is a harbinger of things to come in November. It is a prime opportunity to test Capatin Zero’s tactics that will be deployed in the fall.

    If union/OWS buffoonery and DOJ meddling become largely evident, both pre and post election and those tactics become successful in impeding Walker’s reforms then Zero and his minions will only ramp that strategy up for his re-election. On the other hand, if Walker wins handily other Blue states will sit up and take notice and Zero will need to work overtime to come up with new tactics.

    Hopefully we’ll see government unions and their benefactors become a focus point in the national election. National right-to-work should be a campaign issue. No free man should have to join a union to get a job, let alone tithe any of his money to the party….er, to the union.

  • SoFiMil

    we still need your vote. A blowout win is even better than a win. Send a message and contribute to a Walker blowout win.

  • SoFiMil

    .

  • billstanley

    Membership in the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (Wisconsin’s second-largest government-sector union) fell from 62,818 in March 2011 to 28,745 in February 2012.

  • shaitra

    is a Walker landslide victory.

    I will be happy with a 3 point victory and exposure to the Dem cheating that will be going on today.

  • commonsenseobserver

    The polls seem to point towards one in the range of 4-6 points, but wouldn’t it be great if we could get a 12-point margin like WeAskAmerica predicts? :D

    Imagine the howls when the news that Walker wins 56% of the vote to 44% for Barrett comes out.

  • renny

    CNN’s anchors were all smiles and chortles most of Nov. 2, 2004, until Bush numbers started to rise, and then they were literally nearly in tears.

  • blh557

    Your biblical reference is incorrect.

    Proverbs 4:12 reads (NET) When you walk, your steps will not be hampered, and when you run, you will not stumble.

    Guess you either need to look up the correct verse, if it is there, or wipe your incorrect reference.

    Sorry, I thought it “sounded” really good. Just isn’t correct.

  • http://lukos.com Ed54

    This one falls in the “more relevant” category, because it is shaping up as a referendum over one of the most salient ideological issues of the upcoming presidential election.

    The country faces a critical fork in the road: will we live within our means, or will we go the way of Greece? That decision will be made by the relative political power of the major actors on both sides of the debate. If public sector union power can be beaten in Wisconsin, then perhaps it can be defeated in California and other states. And if it can be defeated at the state level, perhaps it can be controlled at the national level.

  • mdavt

    Can anyone from Wisconsin tell us anything about who holds the gavel in terms of being responsible for certifying the election results and ensuring there is no voter fraud in Wisconsin? Do we need to be concerned about voter fraud being allowed to take root and affect the outcome ?

  • ss396

    nt

  • WY_Cowboy

    special elections as it relates to national politics, the WI is a little different than the run-of-th-mill Congressional specail elections. I think there is a legitimate claim to the assertion that Wisconsin has become a proxy for the national battle between conservative and liberal political activists. While a Walker victory cannot be directly translated as a trend to an Obama loss in Wisconsin, or even in the country, it will have a psychological effect on both camps.

    Conservative activists will be energized by a Walker win. They will have solid evidence that the Tea Party movement is enduring and is winning over people from the middle of the political spectrum and rightward. Very energizing because it will show the world (yet again) that conservative principles are commonly held and it is not necessary to compromise those principles to win elections. It will be up to Mitt Romney to make the sale to conservatives. Yes, conservative want, more than anything at this point, to beat Obama. Mitt Romney will have a lot of work to do. That is why a Walker victory does not automatically mean a Romney victory. However, the conditions are right.

    It will be very demoralizing to the government union folks. We will be gifted with stories of government union leaders trying to tamp down anger at the president for not coming to their aid in their time of need. They’ll vote, but not give money and might not lift a finger to help Obama – at least not as much as they have in the past.

    For these reasons, I think EE misses the psychological impact of this special election. It’s not just a special election, but the frontlines in the battle field as of today.

  • commonsenseobserver

    http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/06/05/Long-Lines-as-Recall-Voting-Begins-in-Heavily-Democratic-Milwaukee

  • jaykali

    Scott Walker has become a Paul Ryan-like conservative thought leader. This is VERY much like the Scott Brown election was in this sense: that election was the canary in the coal mine for Democrats. It predicted DOOM if they carried on the way they were. Then of course they doubled-down on their failed policies which lead to historical losses in 2010.

    Now we have this left-leaning state that elected a budget-hawk type governor in 2010.

    Since this it’s been a war of Unions vs. Budget reform. If Walker loses then the Unions are emboldened and conservatives are scrambling somewhat just bc it seems inevitable that Walker would win. This would be bad news for other midwestern states, the most important of which is Ohio. I would think we would not feel so great about Ohio if Wisconsin decides they want to recall a very successful budget-hawk type of governor. I don’t see that happening.

    A win for Walker is going to humiliate the unions and be a shining example of what conservative reforms can accomplish. This will be the poster-child for right-leaning states, most of which are doing MUCH better than their liberal counterparts. I think it contributes to the narrative that the conservative reforms are working in states that elect Republicans while states like Illinois and California that have doubled-down on liberal policies are completely failing. And thus, we need a new conservative president in the white house. This election is huge.

  • acat

    Milwaukee is lower in early voting than they’d hoped.

    Mew

    (and yes, the title would be in 72pt green if I thought I could get away with it…)

  • commonsenseobserver

    Like Waukesha and Racine. And also, Dane County?

  • lineholder

    *

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    The guys at Ace of Spades are using actual early voting turnout to say this has been doing well.

  • afreemaniii

    I just voted in Dane County. My polling place was empty. I live and vote in Madison, so the lack of liberals voting is fine with me. I voted around this same time for the primary and there was a small line for that vote. Hopefully the lack of a line this time is indicative of the Progressive Dane folks distaste with Barrett. I doubt it, but I’m hoping.

  • acat

    All credit to Ace of Spades writer CAC for this, I’ve provided links before.

    I’m in a rush and don’t have time to write a nice long backgrounder, but … the application is simple. The Dems want this to look like an energized run for their guy so stacked the early-vote in Milwaukee with their union cohort.

    Means nothing. The long lines are a giant puppet.

    Mew

  • proudgop

    lets hope a lot college kids in Madison are back home for summer

  • http://impudent.edublogs.org/ kyle8

    the Labor movement has spent a huge amount of their money, been defeated, and will be discouraged. All of that means less dollars and less personnel available for November.

  • trublutopaz

    I would love to see Walker win if for no other reason than it would deal a serious blow to Andy Stern’s image. Make no mistake, this IS a referendum about the Obama Pro Union policies. From the GM bailout to his support for card check, Obama is counting on union support in all regions for the base of his reelection. If the rank and file realized how their union leadership misuses money or diverts it to political causes putting the rank and file at a disadvantage, I can’t believe they would support him. But I pretty much count on vote shaving, various forms of union intimidation and more to be just foresight of what we will witness nationwide in November.

    BTW, if you haven’t seen the documentary “We Will Not Be Silenced” go google it. Filmed by a Democrat it documents vote shaving, delegate intimidation and various other actions by the Obama campaign during the primaries. Clintonistas KNEW about this, but the fix was in. Try to choke your way through the Gloria Allred interview and watch it. It will give you a clear idea what we are up against.

  • fishgod3

    On “Hannity” last night two union bitchs were decrying that Walker would not listen to the people and pushed through his changes to union barganing rules.They could not seem to see that is exactly what Obama did with Obamacare.How many republicans ran out of Washington to delay the vote,as the dems did in Madison by running to ILL. I`m getting really sick of the liars in the dem.side of the aisle. Today is an early voting day in Nevada,I`m going to stand around after I VOTE to see how many of my friends voted.

  • trublutopaz

    I’m a teacher in a Right To Work State-Texas. I am paid more than many of my union peers in some states and they still get stuck paying sometimes as much as $1000 a year in dues which are used in turn to support political candidates. I have cousins who teach in union states. They are dismayed by union nepotism with the scions of union leadership getting plum jobs while everyone else is at the mercy of the system. Indeed, this particular election reveals that long time union teachers would have gladly allowed RIF’s-reductions in force-of younger teachers in order to avoid paying a comparably meagre contribution to their insurance and pension plans. This type of me first mentality is also what drives many liberals to scare seniors about social security while ignoring that social security has been the lender of choice for liberal social programs since Great Society. It is time to give workers options that include not being forced to join a union. And those that choose not to join should not be bullied or intimidated by co-workers.

  • trublutopaz

    I’m all for term limits. It is time to get entrenched politicians from both sides of the aisle out of office. We need new blood in Washington because the folks there now have become creatures of the Beltway and have forgotten why they were sent there.

  • APA Guy

    Most people in WI understand the importance of balancing the state budget and opening up job opportunities. A few spoiled brats can’t wrap their selfish brains around the concept and never will.

  • APA Guy

    Things are looking great in WI today, but we can’t let up until the fight is won.

  • jaykali

    Didn’t see that coming. I guess we can’t trust special election polls.