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EDITOR OF REDSTATE

Morning Briefing for June 20, 2012

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RedState Morning Briefing

June 20, 2012

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1. From Senator Pat Toomey: America vs. the Sugar Lobby

It’s not often conservatives and liberals, Democrats and Republicans, pro-growth conservative groups and the Teamsters agree on something. In fact, it’s almost unheard of.

But when it comes to the federal government’s sugar program – one of the most egregious corporate welfare handouts in a long list of wasteful programs – these strange bedfellows have found common ground.

For years, the federal government has kept the price of sugar high by capping domestic production, imposing a de facto government price floor, and mandating that USDA buy excess sugar to sell to ethanol producers at a loss. The U.S. government also places exorbitant restrictions on sugar imports. The cumulative effect of all these special protections is an artificial increase in the price of sugar for Americans relative to other countries.

As a result, American consumers pay more for products containing sugar, and U.S. manufacturers of sugar consuming products are at a competitive disadvantage. Not surprisingly, many of these manufacturers have closed their doors or moved their factories to Canada and Mexico where sugar costs less than half the price. The Department of Commerce agrees, finding that for every one job protected by the sugar program, three others are lost in sugar using manufacturing industries.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

2. It’s On: Holder tries to play Issa on Fast and Furious, will be subject of contempt vote tomorrow

Republican members of the House Oversight and Senate Judiciary Committees have been turning up the heat on Attorney General Eric Holder over his obstructive and misleading testimony about Fast and Furious, the operation in which the ATF coerced American gun dealers into selling firearms to Mexican cartels, and then allowed them to “walk” across our southern border (all without a whisper to the Mexican government).

After being threatened with a contempt of Congress vote (scheduled for Wednesday, June 20), Holder made a last-ditch attempt to avert what he has repeatedly referred to as a “constitutional crisis,” requesting a meeting with Oversight Committee Chairman Darrell Issa (R-CA) to “discuss [the Department of] Justice’s knowledge of the controversial ‘gun walking’ tactics used in Fast and Furious, including information about whistleblowers.” Issa agreed to the meeting, but informed Holder that nothing less than full disclosure – including the handover of all documents related to the program, its cover-up, and the action taken against ATF whistleblowers – would be acceptable.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

3. From Rep. Michele Bachmann: The Case for Medicaid Audits to Prevent Fraud

Minnesotans are proud people. We’re proud to boast of our 11,842 lakes and the fact that we can survive subzero temperatures for months straight. But one thing Minnesotans can’t be proud of is our state’s questionable handling of Medicaid dollars.

The House Oversight Committee recently reported, “Minnesota provides a stunning example of how states are failing to properly ensure the appropriate use of taxpayer dollars spent on Medicaid managed care.”

So how did Minnesota end up with this disappointing designation?

Please click here for the rest of the post.

4. WaWa and Kerry: A Tale of Two Memes

Yesterday saw two trial balloons floated by the Obama campaign and its surrogates in their ongoing struggle to define Mitt Romney as someone who should not be president. The first was centered around a Romney campaign stop in Pennsylvania over the weekend, the second about an announcement, of sorts, to the media over who has been selected to act as Romney in Obama’s debate rehearsals.

Let’s examine them both and what they mean in the context of this presidential campaign.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

5. California State Bar Recommends Law License for Illegal Immigrant

I am probably a good deal squishier than most conservatives on the immigration issue – I broadly favor a set of immigration reforms that would probably be (inaccurately) called “amnesty” by most people who read this blog. But this story right here really chaps my hide.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

6. Jared Polis May Have Violated House Rules Following High Park Fire Visit

Rep. Jared Polis (D-Colo.) may have violated House ethics rules last week when he used his official .gov website to broadcast the details of his visit to the High Park Fire Command Post, which is located outside of the congressional district Polis’ currently represents. Both the House ethics and administration committees have issued clear guidance prohibiting the use of official resources for out-of-district events. The recently completed decennial redistricting process added new territory to Polis’ district, but he will only represent the new areas if he is re-elected in November.

Ethics committee guidelines, which are based on House rules that forbid the use of taxpayer dollars for what are effectively campaign activities, also prohibit members of Congress from using official resources, including staff time, to solicit donations for external organizations.

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COMMENTS

  • commonsenseobserver

    http://weaskamerica.com/2012/06/20/ia-mi/

    I can’t find the internals though.

  • lineholder

    Yes, I know….weekend polls tend to lean D.

    Poll demographics show 38D/26I/33R.

    According to internals, the poll is weighted by race and age. I know what a weighted sample is, but I’ve never actually seen sampling that is double-weighted, so to speak.

    How does that work? Is there are way to tell by looking at the poll results how the weights were determined or what impact it had on the results displayed in the poll?

    http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/rQyA68BW5P20

    Any and all input appreciated. Thanks.

  • lineholder

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-20/obama-leads-in-poll-as-voters-view-romney-as-out-of-touch.html

  • tnfriendofcoal101368

    Let me counteth the ways (I am in the data analysis business)…
    1) it is wildly inconsistent with every other poll, even by known hacks like PPP – in the data business we believe in consistency – the electorate will not suddenly change in the manner Bloomberg describes not in the real world. If I had been the lead analyst for Bloomberg…I’d have put another poll in the field
    2) The data shows inconsistency – 27% Protestant but 31% evangelical…33% Republican/31% evangelical. A majority of the people describe themselves as other on the question of Protestant or Catholic (which tells you in and of itself they oversampled Democrats).
    3) Given both the external and internal inconsistency, the data analyst should have thrown the poll out and ordered another one put in the field but as Al Hunt (who is the person who would make that decision) said on Morning Joe: “I believe the poll”. Believes it because he wants too.

  • lineholder

    Consider this an “inquiring minds want to know” question, tnfriendofcoal

    How does the process work? When a poll has two data elements that are used for weighting purposes…how does that work?

    I’ve seen single-element weighting. And I’ve seen decision matrices used after applying something along the of a Pareto analysis for the purpose of weighting an option that might be considered highly-significant in a decision-making process.

    But how does using two data elements work on a poll like this?

  • lineholder

    http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/06/19/rnc-calls-frivolous-lawsuit-by-ron-paul-supporters/

  • PowerToThePeople

    and each and every Paultard who is involved in this lawsuit and every single one who pulls any shenanigans at the convention should be removed the convention and banned from every returning.

  • gekster

    We will change the rules so we can win.

    Sounds like liberals, don’t they.

    Now what were all you Paulbots saying about the RP supporters?

  • tnfriendofcoal101368

    I’d really be interested in how they did it…just guessing but they probably assigned weights to the repondents and then took the weighted average i.e. if the sample was of percentages were
    20% Caucausian old (CO)
    10% Latino old (LO)
    10% African old (AY)
    30% Caucasian young (CY)
    10% latino young (LY)
    15% African Young (AY)
    2.5% Other Young (OY)
    2.5% Other Old (OO)

    now say I compared to the general population which is
    35% CO
    5% LO
    5% AO
    25% CY
    15% LY
    10% AY
    3% OY
    2% OO

    Now to remove my sample bias, I’d assign linear weights to each of my sample subsets coming up with the following formula….

    35/20*CO+5/10*LO+5/10*AO+25/30*CY+15/10*LO+10/15*AY+3/2.5*OY+2/2.5*OO

    Basically, I define the subsets based on age and race, then assign weights based General Population Size/Sample Population Size*Subset response. I am sure there are other ways but I generally go for the simpliest to explain (and my job is data analysis target vs actual performance – so a polling analyst will probably have a different idea).

  • tnfriendofcoal101368

    When I take my dog, Sydney out into the backyard for her daily run, if any neighbors are about at that time Sydney barks at them. A neighbor once asked me “why don’t you teach her better”. My response was “she’s a dog, she barks, can’t blame her for a being a dog” which is why she only goes out to use the bathroom and her daily run for exercise otherwise she is closed indoors. Likewise as Sydney can not be blamed for being a dog, Paultard nutjob can not be blamed for being a Paultard nutjob…they can only be locked up somewhere so as not to cause harm.

  • lineholder

    And I do mean thanks! I had tried to figure it out but I’ve never seen any type of double-weighting done on samples. Decision matrices…yes, but that usually involves realigning subsets mid-stream in the process.

    Plus, this poll actually has two data subsets included in the poll that they might have been used for weighting age stats…one of the two being a subset that simply states “over or under age 65″ and the other being a more comprehensive breakdown of age divisions.

    It’s hard to tell with some of these polls whether they are simply reporting stats or whether there is an effort to utilize stats for the purpose of influencing public opinion. I’m still very much so in the learning curve on differentiating between the two.