I can see how the GOP loses in November of 2014. The establishment and base have moved so far apart the base is about ready to go third party or sit at home. If the GOP does not make a stand against Obamacare, they will not see the energy they need to effectively compete in 2014.
Let me explain what is happening and what will happen.
Karl Rove's Crossroads group commissioned a poll by North Star Opinion Research. The poll found most Americans do not want the GOP to block "health care reform." That's right, Crossroads repeatedly called Obamacare "the healthcare reform law" and was shocked to find people oppose stopping reform. Go figure.
But that poll has been circulated to Republican leaders and they have soiled themselves over it. That is why Mitch McConnell will not support Mike Lee's strategy to draw a line in the sand against funding Obamacare. That is why John Cornyn withdrew his name from Mike Lee's letter. That is why Richard Burr of North Carolina calls defunding Obamacare "stupid."
These men are about power, not principle. They've chosen to let polls lead them instead of leading people.
Already, Byron York is out with a piece saying the GOP will not defund Obamacare. Next we will most likely see Kim Strassel of the Wall Street Journal write one of her semi-regular hit pieces on Mike Lee, Ted Cruz, and the rest of the conservatives who want to stand their ground.
Then we will see Jenn Rubin begin another hyperbole laden attack on Jim DeMint and Ted Cruz.
The actual editorial page of the Wall Street Journal will chime in to yet again attack the Hobbits for daring to stand on principles. The Democrats will then dangle the shiny object of the Keystone Pipeline before the GOP. Like dogs scrambling for scraps at the table, the GOP will take it and their editorial friends will hail this as a grand bargain worth taking. Pay no attention to Obamacare being implemented.
We have seen this before. The GOP leadership will cave and dazzle the base with shiny objects. They will then send out fundraising letters in courier type telling you to stand with them and send them money if you want Obamacare defunded.
Leonidas and three hundred Spartans held the pass at Thermopylae against overwhelming Persian odds until Ephialtes betrayed them and led the Persians on a path around. If the Republican Establishment were in Greece, they'd stand with Ephialtes. So desperate are they to regain power, the Republican Establishment will be led by those who promised President Romney and spent hundreds of millions of dollars getting the status quo.