The best shot the establishment had at beating Chris McDaniel was a primary. But now they find themselves in a runoff where the most energized supporters show up. When their candidate lacks energy, it is hard for any of their voters to have energy.
But Chris McDaniel has energy headed into a three week runoff. The only caveat is if overnight some mystery votes from the machine show up for Cochran.
And here is the dirty little secret. The establishment largely has to win every one of their races. The grassroots do not. We just need to add to the ranks of conservatives in the Senate. And we are doing that. The establishment and grassroots are playing two different games. The establishment can pour money in and win in most cases as they have done. But the grassroots can just keep nibbling away.
Now, however, the establishment finds itself in a funny position. They're used to blaming conservatives for losses. They are used to claiming that conservatives are sore losers. I have personally given to people like Mitch McConnell after my candidate loses and their candidate wins.
The question now is will they? Because if they don't, the media narrative writes itself. The establishment takes it football home, while expecting conservatives to still show up and vote for their guys. That won't work much longer. We are either in this together, or we are two separate parties coming to terms with divorce.
We'll see in three weeks.