The New American Conservative Union ratings are out.

In 2010, the following Senators received scores of more than 80 on the ACU score:
*Lamar Alexander
*John Barrasso
*Bob Bennett
*Kit Bond
*Sam Brownback
*Jim Bunning
*Richard Burr
*Saxby Chambliss
*Tom Coburn
*Thad Cochran
*Bob Corker
*John Cornyn
*Mike Crapo
*Jim DeMint
*John Ensign
*Mike Enzi
*Lindsey Graham
*Chuck Grassley
*Orrin Hatch
*Kay Bailey Hutchinson
*James Inhofe
*Johnny Isakson
*Mike Johanns
*Jon Kyl
*George LeMieux
*John McCain
*Mitch McConnell
*Jim Risch
*Pat Roberts
*Jeff Sessions
*Richard Shelby
*John Thune
*David Vitter
*Roger Wicker

So, which Republican caucus members were not on this list?
*George Voinovich (retired)
*Judd Gregg (retired)
*Scott Brown
*Susan Collins
*Olympia Snowe
*Dick Lugar
*Mark Kirk
*Lisa Murkowski

There are some common misconceptions about certain Senators on here that I feel compelled to address.

Lindsey Graham voted with the Democrats less than 17 of his colleagues. If you think Graham’s vote for Elena Kagan is enough to warrant a primary challenge, well, then, yeah, you are furious at him. But if you are furious at him because he has voted with the Democrats on major pieces of legislation, well then your point doesn’t stand.

So who needs to get a primary?

Mark Kirk
It is too early to say whether Mark Kirk does. After all, he has only been in the Senate for several months. He voted for Food Safety and Don’t Ask Don’t Tell. I don’t think nominating a conservative Republican in Illinois is a good idea though – We tried that with Bill Brady in the most conservative year (probably ever), and he lost. Kirk has a nice collection of rural, suburb votes (which are not as strong Republican as they used to be), and some city votes. Kirk is up for reelection in 2016.S

Scott Brown

And then there are those that would like to lose a seat with someone principled rather than keep the seat with a moderate. First of all, Scott Brown voted the conservative position 3/4 of the time. Let’s face it, Jim DeMint isn’t going to win in MA, where Republicans will make up about 25% of the vote on election day in 2012. Scott Brown is a legit conservative – he is trying to go as far as possible and still try to be reelected. If the Senate comes down to 50-50, and it turns out that Reid still controls the Senate because we nominated a more conservative candidate … well, I hope that doesn’t happen. Pick a candidate that supports you 3/4 of the time and doesn’t try to make a big deal of his cross-over votes (unlike the Maine women) or a candidate who won’t support you at all, will support the Kennedy union agenda, and will put Reid/Durbin in charge of the Senate.

Dick Lugar
There’s not much to say here. This guy’s been there way too long and it’s RED Indiana. 71% conservative.

The Maine Women
The Maine Women … Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins. When they vote against us and for the liberal government funding agenda, they make a big deal of it and it really annoys the heck out of me. I believe that Paul LePage shows a conservative can get elected in Maine…but this needs to be a conservative who knows his or her issues well and is not a celebrity like O’Donnell. Maine people won’t like that (or Angle).

Let me know what your opinion is on the moderates in the Senate …

and the voting can be found here.

http://www.conservative.org/ratings/ratingsarchive/2010/2010SenateRatings.htm#SC

http://www.conservative.org/congress-ratings/2010-u-s-senate-vote-descriptions

Let’s redistrict Texas!

First, here’s some background on the politics of Texas. Texas is a red state with pockets of liberal voters. It has voted for the Republican nominee for President of the United States since Jimmy Carter in 1976. No Democrat has been elected statewide since 1999. John Cornyn and Kay Bailey Hutchinson are the two Senators. Both are conservative but not that conservative. Hutchinson is leaving office in two year. Cornyn leads the National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee. There are currently 9 Democrats in the congressional delegation.

Second, here’s a background on the Voting Rights Act. Passed in 1965, the VRA sets up congressional districts for minorities. The thinking at the time of this law was that minorities needed their “own districts” to get fair representation. Whatever map is approved by the Texas legislature in redistricting will have to get cleared by Eric Holder’s Justice Department. In redistricting, you cannot dismantle the three African American districts (Bernice Johnson, Greene and Jackson Lee) or the Hispanic Districts. (Hinojosa, Reyes, Gonzalez, Canseco, Farenthold, Cuellar, Greene)

Owing to population increase in Texas, 4 new districts will have to be created. The large increase in Hispanics will mean 2 of the districts have to be VRA.

Below are the proposed districts of my map. There are demographic numbers, partisan numbers and in ( ), partisan numbers for the current district.

Got that? Let’s go to the maps. (Click on the thumbnails for a larger picture)

Let’s start in the Texas Panhandle.

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Texas’s 13th congressional district (Faded Pink)
Incumbent: Mac Thornberry (R)

Demographics
White: 76%
Black: 6%
Asian: 3%
Hispanic: 15%

Political Data
Obama: 24% (23%)
McCain: 75% (77%)

Mac Thornberry’s district still represents the rural ranches and farms of the Texas plains. The district expands eastward to take in Sherman. Farming issues are important here.

Texas’s 19th congressional district (Khaki Brown)
Incumbent: Randy Neugebauer (R)
Challenger: Chet Edwards (D)

Demographics
White: 78%
Black: 6%
Asian: 2%
Hispanic: 14%

Political Data
Obama: 26% (27%)
McCain: 73% (72%)

Randy Neugebauer represents this sprawling West Texas seat. Nearly 95% of this district is new territory to him (to make room for the new TX-23 in the panhandle), so he could get challenged by a state legislator. In the far southeast corner of this district, the city of Waco is included. This puts Chet Edwards in this district. Edwards is a real threat (He was able to win year after year voting like a liberal in a 32% Obama district), but putting him in unfamiliar territory and in a worse district for Obama mean’s he’s done.

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Texas’s 23rd congressional district (Light Blue)
Incumbent: None

Demographics
White: 39%
Black: 5%
Asian: 1%
Hispanic: 54%

Political Data
Obama: 38% (51%)
McCain: 61% (48%)

We’ve all heard the constant whining about how Republicans can’t take the state of Texas to their advantage because they have to include two new Democratic VRA districts. Here’s one that’s Republican. 54% Hispanic, and a McCain win by 23 points. The 23rd extends northward to grab some Hispanic areas in the panhandle.

The current Republican, Quico Canseco lives in San Antonio in a really liberal area. He is forced into having no seat to run in under this map, but I’d rather have this district than have Canseco running in a marginal district that he has to watch his back in in good Democratic years.

Texas’s 16th congressional district (Regular Green in the El Paso area)
Incumbent: Silvestre Reyes (D)

Demographics
White: 18%
Black: 3%
Asian: 2%
Hispanic: 77%

Political Data
Obama: 65% (66%)
McCain: 34% (34%)

Due to the growth in population in the El Paso area, this district shrinks. It remains a VRA-Hispanic district to be represented by Silvestre Reyes. Reyes will be 68 at next election time. He may retire sometime this decade. This seat is pretty much out of the question though – Reyes won it by 22 points last year, a very Republican year.

Texas’s 11th congressional district (Light Green)
Incumbent: Mike Conaway (R)

Demographics
White: 72%
Black: 4%
Asian: 2%
Hispanic: 21%

Political Data
Obama: 23% (24%)
McCain: 76% (76%)

This district sheds some western rural counties to expand southward and northward. Still in the Plains and in the desert in the South. A lot of this area is new to Mike Conaway, but his base is still preserved so he should be okay.

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Texas’s 17th congressional district (Slate Blue)
Incumbent: Bill Flores (R)

Demographics
White: 64%
Black: 16%
Asian: 4%
Hispanic: 15%

Political Data
Obama: 38% (32%)
McCain: 61% (67%)

This district removes Waco and within it the home of Chet Edwards. It adds Fort Hood and Killeen (the reason for this district becoming more Democratic) and some rural counties in the West. Flores is safe here.

Texas’s 31st congressional district (Faded White)
Incumbent: John Carter (R)

Demographics
White: 80%
Black: 3%
Asian: 4%
Hispanic: 13%

Political Data
Obama: 43% (42%)
McCain: 55% (58%)

John Carter’s district remains intact in the north Austin suburbs. The population explosion there means the district will get smaller. Carter could be vulnerable in a year where rural turnout is overpowered by urban turnout – some of the Western Austin fringes are in this district.

Texas’s 33th congressional district (Cornflower Blue)
Incumbent: Michael McCaul (R)

Demographics
White: 65%
Black: 6%
Asian: 3%
Hispanic: 25%

Political Data
Obama: 42%
McCain: 57%

Mike McCaul’s district becomes two points safer as only northern Austin is now included in this district. Southern Hill Country is also included – an area that is about 1/4 Hispanic. A lot of this area is unfamiliar to McCaul – but overall I think he’ll be okay.

Texas’s 25th congressional district (Austin Area Pink)
Incumbent: Lloyd Doggett (D)

Demographics
White: 48%
Black: 11%
Asian: 5%
Hispanic: 35%

Political Data
Obama: 73% (59%)
McCain: 26% (40%)

Lloyd Doggett comes out a big winner in redistricting as his district moves to be an Austin-centered district. Doggett should be around for a while.

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Texas’s 12th congressional district (Light Blue)
Incumbent: Kay Granger (R)

Demographics
White: 68%
Black: 7%
Asian: 3%
Hispanic: 21%

Political Data
Obama: 39% (36%)
McCain: 60% (63%)

Granger’s district loses Parker and Wise County and adds Johnson County. Not much to say here…

Texas’s 26th congressional district (Real Gray)
Incumbent: Michael Burgess (R)

Demographics
White: 63%
Black: 12%
Asian: 7%
Hispanic: 18%

Political Data
Obama: 44% (41%)
McCain: 55% (58%)

Michael Burgess’s district removes Denton and goes south to incorporate Fort Worth. Burgess could be in trouble by the end of the decade – Fort Worth is becoming Democratic fast.

Texas’s 24th congressional district (Purple-Blue)
Incumbent: Kenny Marchant (R), Pete Sessions (R)

Demographics
White: 60%
Black: 11%
Asian: 9%
Hispanic: 20%

Political Data
Obama: 44% (44%)
McCain: 55% (55%)

Kenny Marchant still lives in this district but 90% of it is new to him. It remains Republican enough for Marchant, but the Dallas suburbs are trending Democratic… so I had to throw Pete Sessions in with him. (His former district becomes a VRA district). Should make for some good competition.

Texas’s 3rd congressional district (Moderate Purple)
Incumbent: Sam Johnson (R)

Demographics
White: 77%
Black: 5%
Asian: 9%
Hispanic: 9%

Political Data
Obama: 38% (42%)
McCain: 61% (57%)

Sam Johnson will turn 82 in 2012. His Plano based district remains intact for him in case he wants to continue serving but becomes a few points more Republican to boot.

Kenny Marchant still lives in this district but 90% of it is new to him. It remains Republican enough for Marchant, but the Dallas suburbs are trending Democratic… so I had to throw Pete Sessions in with him. (His former district becomes a VRA district). Should make for some good competition.

Texas’s 32nd congressional district (Firey Orange)
Incumbent: None

Demographics
White: 34%
Black: 10%
Asian: 4%
Hispanic: 51%

Political Data
Obama: 58% (46%)
McCain: 41% (53%)

In the span of eleven years, this district will have become 22 more points Democratic. (Gore got 36% here in 2000) The growth of Hispanics in the greater Dallas area means it’s time for a new VRA district. Pete Sessions lives here, I believe. His logical place to run is TX-24. Or he could save us some time and retire.

Texas’s 30th congressional district (Pink)
Incumbent: Eddie Bernice Johnson (D)

Demographics
White: 27%
Black: 46%
Asian: 4%
Hispanic: 23%

Political Data
Obama: 78% (82%)
McCain: 22% (18%)

Eddie Bernice Johnson remains in her inner-city Dallas district. I’d love to see Texas Republicans get rid of her, but there really is no way to do so. This district is protected by the VRA. It sheds a little Obama strength (and Hispanics) to help out the new VRA district that is TX-32.

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Texas’s 34th congressional district (Pink)
Incumbent: None

Demographics
White: 71%
Black: 19%
Asian: 2%
Hispanic: 8%

Political Data
Obama: 34%
McCain: 65%

In the 1990s, east Texas voted exclusively for Clinton. Now it is a bastion of conservatism. This newly created East Texas district should have some local or state leader who can step up to the plate. Democrats are nonexistent here.

Texas’s 8th congressional district (Bluish Purple in the North Houston suburbs)
Incumbent: Kevin Brady (R)

Demographics
White: 80%
Black: 5%
Asian: 3%
Hispanic: 12%

Political Data
Obama: 26% (26%)
McCain: 73% (74%)

The North Houston suburbs have grown at an enormous rate so Brady’s district collapses to center on The Woodlands in Montgomery County. Safe Republican.

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Texas’s 10th congressional district
Incumbent: None

Demographics
White: 50%
Black: 20%
Asian: 5%
Hispanic: 25%

Political Data
Obama: 43% (44%)
McCain: 56% (55%)

This district meanders throughout Hill Country, North Houston, suburbs and rural farmland. Safe for whichever Republican would like to hold it.

Texas’s 21st congressional district (Deep Maroon)
Incumbent: Lamar Smith (R)

Demographics
White: 61%
Black: 6%
Asian: 4%
Hispanic: 29%

Political Data
Obama: 42% (41%)
McCain: 57% (58%)

Lamar Smith gets the North San Antonio suburbs. This is yet another “suburbs” that have been growing, so his district loses a lot of rural area. Should be fine.

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Texas’s 6th congressional district (Turquoise)
Incumbent: Joe Barton (R)

Demographics
White: 66%
Black: 7%
Asian: 3%
Hispanic: 13%

Political Data
Obama: 45% (40%)
McCain: 55% (60%)

Joe Barton’s district moves 5 points to the left. Barton can probably hold it or he can retire and another less vocal conservative Republican can hold it.

Texas’s 5th congressional district (Yellow)
Incumbent: Jeb Hensarling (R)

Demographics
White: 71%
Black: 12%
Asian: 3%
Hispanic: 14%

Political Data
Obama: 37% (36%)
McCain: 63% (63%)

Jeb Hensarling’s safe Republican district. Some of Dallas and East Texas. Safe for him.

Texas’s 36th congressional district (Yellow-Orange)
Incumbent: Louie Gohmert (R)

Demographics
White: 70%
Black: 20%
Asian: 2%
Hispanic: 8%

Political Data
Obama: 30%
McCain: 69%

Louie Gohmert’s home is moved from TX-01 to TX-36. This district, in the extreme Northeast part of Texas is safe for any Republican. Probably voted for Bill Clinton as recent as 1996 though.

Texas’s 1st congressional district (Deep Blue)
Incumbent: Ralph Hall (R)

Demographics
White: 79%
Black: 7%
Asian: 3%
Hispanic: 11%

Political Data
Obama: 32% (30%)
McCain: 67% (69%)

Ralph Hall needs to retire or face a primary. He is older than John Dingell and will be 89 in 2012. He nearly lost in the Republican primary this year. He’s safe from a Democrat, as is any other Republican.

Texas’s 4th congressional district (Deep Red)
Incumbent: None

Demographics
White: 78%
Black: 4%
Asian: 5%
Hispanic: 13%

Political Data
Obama: 34% (30%)
McCain: 65% (69%)

This district takes in Denton and other fast growing Republican suburbs. Safe…REPUBLICAN.

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Texas’s 20th congressional district (Light Pink)
Incumbent: Charlie Gonzalez (D)

Demographics
White: 16%
Black: 8%
Asian: 1%
Hispanic: 74%

Political Data
Obama: 70% (63%)
McCain: 29% (36%)

Charlie Gonzalez keeps his VRA held Hispanic district. This continues to be centered on San Antonio.

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Texas’s 18th congressional district (Vibrant Yellow)
Incumbent: Sheila Jackson Lee (D)

Demographics
White: 18%
Black: 41%
Asian: 2%
Hispanic: 37%

Political Data
Obama: 80% (77%)
McCain: 19% (22%)

Jackson Lee continues to hold her district in the inner city Houston area. Liberal and corrupt, but still there.

Texas’s 7th congressional district (Gray in West Houston)
Incumbent: John Culberson (R)

Demographics
White: 65%
Black: 5%
Asian: 8%
Hispanic: 21%

Political Data
Obama: 38% (41%)
McCain: 61% (58%)

Culberson keeps his Houston based seat.

Texas’s 9th congressional district (Light Blue)
Incumbent: Al Green (D)

Demographics
White: 20%
Black: 34%
Asian: 12%
Hispanic: 34%

Political Data
Obama: 73% (77%)
McCain: 26% (26%)

Demographically, whoever represents this district will have to have good knowledge of each of their district’s races. African American Al Green represents this district but could get a primary challenge from a Hispanic or a White. Safe for the liberals.

Texas’s 29th congressional district (Gray-Brown in East Houston)
Incumbent: Gene Green (D)

Demographics
White: 27%
Black: 11%
Asian: 3%
Hispanic: 59%

Political Data
Obama: 58% (62%)
McCain: 41% (38%)

Green may have to do a little bit of moderating in his positions – but as long as things don’t completely collapse for Houston Democrats he should be fine.

Texas’s 22nd congressional district (Authentic Brown)
Incumbent: Pete Olsen (R)

Demographics
White: 61%
Black: 10%
Asian: 12%
Hispanic: 17%

Political Data
Obama: 39% (41%)
McCain: 60% (58%)

This district remains centered on Sugarland, but also extends out into the open rural west area of Houston. Safe Republican.

Texas’s 2nd congressional district (Authentic Green)
Incumbent: Ted Poe (R)

Demographics
White: 72%
Black: 9%
Asian: 5%
Hispanic: 14%

Political Data
Obama: 33% (40%)
McCain: 67% (60%)

Ted Poe is an unabashed conservative and his district gets 7 points more Republican. His district stretches all the way to Beaumont and northward into Liberty County.

Texas’s 14th congressional district (Goldish)
Incumbent: Ron Paul (R)

Demographics
White: 62%
Black: 14%
Asian: 4%
Hispanic: 20%

Political Data
Obama: 39% (33%)
McCain: 60% (66%)

Ah yes, Ron Paul. I don’t dislike him as much as some people. His district stretches along the Gulf of Mexico from Port Arthur to Lake Jackson (his home), and Matagorda Island. I don’t know if his libertarianism (if that’s what you want to call it) will suit him well in a district that is 6 points more liberal. (and those liberals are mainly African Americans in Port Arthur). Also, Paul will be retiring soon. (He’s in his mid 70s)

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Texas’s 27th congressional district (Aqua)
Incumbent: Blake Farenthold (R)

Demographics
White: 40%
Black: 6%
Asian: 2%
Hispanic: 52%

Political Data
Obama: 46% (53%)
McCain: 54% (46%)

Blake Farenthold – the mystery man who beat Solomon Ortiz in the last election gets a safer VRA district. He gets some new territory in Fort Wharton and Fort Bend County. Being the unknown he is, he’ll have some work to do to get reelected, but it just got a lot easier.

Texas’s 35th congressional district (Purple)
Incumbent: None

Demographics
White: 13%
Black: 0%
Asian: 1%
Hispanic: 86%

Political Data
Obama: 67%
McCain: 32%

This district straddles the Mexico border and is tailor made for any Hispanic Democrat. Some people here are probably illegals.

Texas’s 15th congressional district (Orange)
Incumbent: Rueben Hinojosa (D)

Demographics
White: 17%
Black: 1%
Asian: 1%
Hispanic: 81%

Political Data
Obama: 60% (60%)
McCain: 40% (40%)

Hinojosa continues his dominance on this Hispanic district. Republicans will need to built up some party infrastructure in South Texas to ever have a chance at this seat.

Texas’s 28th congressional district (Light Pink)
Incumbent: Henry Cuellar (D)

Demographics
White: 20%
Black: 3%
Asian: 2%
Hispanic: 74%

Political Data
Obama: 61% (56%)
McCain: 38% (44%)

Cuellar gets saved by adding some more Hispanics into this district. Centered on Laredo and very Democratic…

___
What is your redistricting philosophy? Fair? Gerrymandered? If you know Texas politics and geography, what do you think of the proposed map?

From the diaries by Leon. An interesting hypothetical to occupy the weekend.

First things first: I apologize for the size of the maps. I do not know how to make them smaller, or to make them fit. If you wish to see the maps, please CLICK on them, and that should solve all your problems.

Read More →

Since Congress can’t get its act together to reduce the deficit, maybe you can. Three budget puzzles are now available.

1st off: New York Times Deficit Calculator

The projected 2015 shortfall is 418 billion dollars. The projected 2030 shortfall is 1,345 billion. Find out how much of your savings come from spending decreases and tax increases. 29% of my savings come from tax increases, while 71% come from spending decreases. Keep in mind that that 29% includes the national sales tax, which is added onto the current income tax. Preferably, the income tax would be repealed and the national sales tax would become the law of the land. Anyway, I close the deficit by 2030.

According to the NYT, the biggest cutters are reducing troops in Iraq and Afghanistan, ending

So here’s a preview of the US Senate elections. It’s important to know who is up for reelection in 2012, as we look for the Senators who’s votes are “most up for grabs” on the policy that will be decided by the Reid Senate over the next two years.

Democratic Held Seats

California

Come 2012, Dianne Feinstein will have been Senator for 20 years, and will be 79 years old. Widely regarded as an “institution” in California, Feinstein ramped hapless Former Arcadia Mayor and Republican Dick Mountjoy by 24 points in 2006. At a Boxer rally shortly before the election, Feinstein said she was running again.

Feinstein is considered the more moderate of California’s two Senators: The reason for this is that her rhetoric is much more toned-down than the very abrasive Boxer, but she votes for the liberal position just as much as her counterpart. (Pro gun-control, Obamacare, cap and trade etc)

Boxer is far more unpopular than Feinstein, and she managed to survive a very Republican year. With Barack Obama on the ballot (and most likely carrying the electoral votes there unless he sinks to Carter like numbers), Feinstein is even more likely to be reelected. We should wait this one out, with a likely retirement from Boxer in 2016 or Feinstein in 2018. If Feinstein were to retire, potential Republican candidates include Congresswomen Mary Bono Mack of Riverside County, and Congressman Tom McClintock of Northeastern California. I would like to see Kevin McCarthy run, but he has the leadership role in the House right now. And no people, Chuck DeVore’s politics do not align with California. Let’s be realistic: Where does DeVore find the votes to win?

Rating: Safe Democrat (with Feinstein) and Lean-Likely Democrat (without Feinstein)

______
Delaware

Incumbent Senator Tom Carper will be 65 in 2012. There have been reports that Carper has a health problem, but he has denied it. He has not announced his reelection plans though. The Republican bench in this state is ……. nobody. Christine O’Donnell could run, but I bet she’s off to something else after running twice in the last four years. Maybe Jan Ting, who ran against Carper in 2006 will seek a rematch. Democratic Attorney General Beau Biden will probably run if Carper retires.

Rating: Safe Democrat (with Carper); Likely Democrat (without Carper)

Florida

Incumbent Senator Bill Nelson will be 70 years old in 2012. He was reelected with 60% in 2006 against Katherine Harris.

Nelson gets a 35 from the American Conservative Union. This score enables him to hide behind his true extreme views of Obamacare, Cap and trade, no more offshore oil drilling, and letting every illegal immigrant come into this country.

Nelson is extremely vulnerable; a PPP poll earlier this year showed him leading former Governor Jeb Bush (who has been out of the Florida eye) by 2 points. The poll also found George LeMieux trailing Nelson by 21 points, due to his lack of name recognition. Florida is a state that just elected Marco Rubio; therefore we should be able to choose a conservative in the primary here. LeMieux is a product of the Crist administration and Jim Greer, the former Florida Republican Party Chairman currently in prison. (i.e. let’s not see him run) I’ve heard rumors that Connie Mack, the Representative, or Jennifer Carroll, Florida’s soon to be Lieutenant Governor will run. If Nelson retires, let’s hope socialist and outgoing Congressman Alan Grayson runs. The Democrats have their entire congressional delegation here, but nobody stands out in particular. Then, we won’t have to spend a single dime here.

Rating: Tossup (with Nelson), Tossup/Tilt Republican (without Nelson)

____

Hawaii

Daniel Akaka will be 88 when his term ends in 2012. (term limits anyone?) Hawaii bucked the Republican wave in 2010; they elected Liberal Democratic Congressman Neil Abercrombie to the Governor’s office, and returned the ancient Daniel Inouye to the Senate.

Akaka is a liberal Democrat who is a strong supporter of defense spending and other earmarks.

How many Republicans will be in the Hawaii Senate in 2011? 1. So what’s the Republican bench? Outgoing Governor Linda Lingle has said she will consider the race. That is maybe the best we can hope for here. Even if Akaka runs, Ed Case, the former Congressman, who annoys national Democrats to hell by posing as a moderate, may try to primary Akaka. Potential Democratic candidates include soon to be Lieutenant Governor Brian Schatz or Congresswomen Maize Hirono if Akaka retires. This is Barack Obama’s home; he is guaranteed to win here by a landslide in 2012, and will provide some coattails in the Senate race.

Rating: Safe Democrat (Akaka vs Generic R); Lean Democrat (Akaka vs Lingle); Tilt Democrat (Generic D vs Lingle); Likely Democrat (Generic D vs Generic R)

Maryland

Ben Cardin was elected with 54% of the vote in 2006 vs Michael Steele, the former Lieutenant Governor. Cardin is highly popular, even when most folks from Washington aren’t, and was beating a Generic R in a Republican year by 18 points back in a PPP poll this summer.

Who’s here to run if Cardin retires? (He’s 69) The entire congressional delegation could choose a promotion which would include Chris Van Hollen, the chair of the DCCC, who recently lost the Democrats 60+ seats. Maryland’s 3rd congressional district, which has been the breeding ground for Senators is currently held by John Sarbanes.

There are two Republicans in the Maryland congressional delegation. Andy Harris represents MD-01, and would need to start raising his profile in this dark blue state soon if he wanted to run. And Roscoe Barlett, who represents rural western Maryland is 80+. In other words, there is no “visible” Republican on the horizon here.

Rating: Safe Democrat (with Cardin); Likely Democrat (without Cardin)

Michigan

Two term Senator Debbie Stabenow will be 62 in 2012. Stabenow is a big supporter of the auto industry bailout, and is in the Democratic leadership.

Tea Party Activist Chad Dewey (I love his website if you want to check it out) (http://chaddewey.org/) has announced his candidacy. A hypothetical poll found Stabenow behind by five points to a generic Republican back in May. An incumbent down at 43%… Who might run? Look at Congresswomen Candice Miller, Thad McCotter, or Mike Rogers. Having a Congressman from the Michigan delegation run would help with redistricting as Michigan plans to lose one seat.

Rating: Tossup/Tilt Democrat (with Stabenow); Tossup/Tilt Republican (if the Republican runs a competent campaign)

Minnesota

Amy Klobuchar will be seeking a second term in 2012. Her constituent service has made her enormously popular despite her liberal voting record. We would need a conservative with a lot of money to be able to give voice to Klobuchar’s political positions.

Who might run? Erik Paulsen, who represents MN-03 could run, and likely hand that seat to a Democrat. John Kline is too far up in the House hierarchy that I doubt he runs. Chip Craavack, who just defeated earmarker James Oberstar could run, and certainly has experience knocking off established Democratic legislators. Michelle Bachmann’s tone is probably wrong for this state as a whole, unfortunately. If Minnesota loses a House seat, (it’s on the verge), expect the Congress(man)(women) who loses his/her seat to run.

Rating: Likely Democrat

Missouri

First term Democrat Claire McCaskill is one of the most vulnerable Senators up in 2012. You will probably see her begin to move to the right in the next two years. She is already against earmarks, was one of the last holdouts on Obamacare, and may not be enthusiastic about cap and trade. In 2006, McCaskill assembled a coalition of Democrats, Independents, and Republicans in St. Louis, Kansas City, and the rural areas to win. It is highly unlikely that she can do it again.

McCaskill’s approval ratings are not particularly high. Lieutenant Governor Pete Kinder, former Treasurer Sarah Steelman, and Congresswomen Vicky Hartzler (please…) may run. Missouri is on the edge of losing a House seat, and this would most likely either be Todd Akin or Russ Carnahan’s. Since this is a conservative state, let’s not have another Blunt running.

Rating: Tilt Republican

Montana

Incumbent Senator Jon Tester is seeking reelection in 2012. In 2006, he knocked off controversial Conrad Burns. Republican nominee for Lieutenant Governor in 2008 Steve Daines has announced his candidacy. There have been very few polls in Montana recently because there was no major election there in 2010.

Tester is vulnerable, but he lives on a farm in Eastern Montana, and that may get him votes in traditionally Republican areas. He is very involved in agricultural and mountain issues in his state, but is generally too liberal. Look for Republican Congressman Denny Rehberg to potentially run.

Rating: Tossup

Nebraska

Conservative Democrat Ben Nelson won reelection with 64% of the vote in 2006, assembling 95+% of Democrats, 73% of Independents, and 42% of Republicans. He is the most vulnerable Democrat up for reelection, after his sellout on the abortion part of Obamacare, as well as his individual deals for Nebraska.

A poll taken after the election by a Republican firm showed Nelson behind Attorney General Jon Bruning by 15 points. Put it this way: If Nelson runs, he is the Blanche Lincoln of 2010. If he doesn’t, the Democrat may not crack 40%. Let’s pick the most conservative candidate here. I don’t know much about Bruning, but I know that I do not want to see Lee Terry, the 2nd district congressman run.

Rating: Lean-Likely Republican (with Nelson); Safe Republican (without Nelson)

There are the first 10 seats up in 2010. Do you agree with my predictions? Disagree? Who would you like to see run? Who should we make sure doesn’t run?

Overall: Republican +3. Democrats +0. And we are already at 50/50.