I apologize for my longer-than-expected absence. I’ve finally found the time to get around to my Senate analysis update. As of yesterday, we have a host of new updates, so I’ll head right into the actual analysis.

Just a quick reminder: please remember that my Senate 2010 Analysis series is not my predictions; they are simply my take on where the races are right now.

DEMOCRATIC SEATS:

#1: North Dakota – Byron Dorgan (Retiring)

Governor John Hoeven continues to crush Democratic challenger State Senator Tracy Potter by a whopping 72-23 in the latest mid-March Rasmussen poll. North Dakota is turning bright red in November!

#2: Delaware – Ted Kauffman (Appointed – Retiring)

Delaware continues to beat out Indiana as Republicans’ second most-secure pick-up opportunity in 2010. Republican Representative Michael Castle is way ahead in this race, leading Democrat Chris Coons 55-32 in an late-April Rasmussen poll. No polls have been done in the Republican primary, but Castle looks well positioned to fend off a challenge from perennial candidate Christine O’Donnell. No polls have been done matching O’Donnell and Coons.

Delaware is still an almost guaranteed pick-up. The only reason it isn’t rated as our #1 pick-up is because North Dakota is even more comfortable.

#3: Arkansas – Blanche Lincoln

Senator Lincoln succeeded in fending off fellow Democrat Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter in their primary run-off yesterday, but that can’t be too comforting to the 2-term Senator. A late-May Research 2000 poll shows Republican Representative John Boozman leading Lincoln by a shocking 56-33, echoing a slightly older poll by Rasmussen.

I only rate Arkansas as #3 because Lincoln is still the incumbent and performed better than expected in the Democratic primary. Nevertheless, if polls continue showing Boozman way ahead, this could surpass Delaware as Republicans’ #2 pick-up.

#4: Indiana – Evan Bayh (Retiring)

Despite a fairly nasty primary, former Senator Dan Coats seems to have finally solidified support from most conservative arenas. He leads Democratic Representative Brad Ellsworth 47-33 in an early-June Rasmussen poll, down a few points from a similar poll a month before.

Indiana jumps from Republicans’ #6 opportunity since my last update. Coats could still lose, but at this point he looks likely to turn this seat bright red in November, guaranteeing at least a +4 pick-up in the Senate for Republicans.

#5: Colorado – Michael Bennet (Appointed)

The current scandal brewing in the Democratic primary may put a surprise twist in Colorado’s Senate election, but as of a mid-May Public Policy poll, former Democratic Speaker of the state House Andrew Romanoff trails the Senator 31-46.

The same poll showed former Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton leading Ken Buck for the Republican nomination 31-26.

Colorado looked to be a sure-fire pick-up a few months ago, but Democrats’ chances of retaining the seat were improved with the release of a mid-May Public Policy poll showing Bennett leading Norton 44-41. An early-June Rasmussen poll showed Norton re-taking the lead 46-40. A similar situation exists in the match-up between Norton and Bennett, with Norton re-taking a slight lead 43-42 in that early-June Rasmussen poll but trailing Bennett 41-43 in that mid-May Public Policy poll.

Meanwhile, the situation is a little rosier should Buck be the Republican nominee. He takes a 46-41 lead over Bennett in the Rasmussen poll after trailing 39-45 in the Public Policy poll. Against Romanoff, Buck leads 45-39 in the Rasmussen and trailed 38-41 in the Public Policy.

Republicans are still probably the favorite to take this seat, but Democrats could still pull it out if Republicans have a bloody primary or go off-message in the summer.

#6: Nevada – Harry Reid

This race has fallen from Republicans’ #1 pick-up opportunity back when I first started tracking the Senate 2010 races back in September.

Yesterday’s Republican primary delivered what would have been considered a shock had I prophesied it last September: Unknown former State Assemblywoman Sharron Angle etched out a victory over Sue Lowden and Danny Tarkanian and heads into November with a tiny war chest and disunity in the State party.

Nevertheless, the latest Mason Dixon/LVJR poll from early-June showed Angle leading Reid 44-41. That was after an early-June Research 2000 poll just a few days earlier showing Reid leading Angle 42-37. It’s anyone’s guess where this race really is, but Republicans may have flubbed up one of their best pick-up opportunities.

But the year isn’t over and Reid is definitely vulnerable. If Angle unites the party, keeps both feet out of her mouth, raises a boatload of money, and plays her cards shrewdly, she stands an excellent chance of beheading Senate Democrats for the second time this decade.

#7: Illinois – Roland Burris (Appointed – Retiring)

Republican Representative Mark Kirk still leads Democratic State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias 41-38 in the latest Research 2000 poll from early-May. This is in line with most other polls since April, though Giannoulias’ numbers are cut slightly when Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones is included.

To me, it still seems like Republicans have a slight upper hand, at least as far as legitimate voters are concerned. But Illinois is a solidly blue state known for voter fraud and corruption. Kirk will need to pull his lead up and pass the 50% mark before I consider this a comfortable win.

#8: Pennsylvania – Arlen Specter (Democrat-Republican-Democrat-Defeated in Primary)

One of the greatest victories for the American people came when turn-coat and political opportunist Specter was defeated by Representative Joe Sestak in the Democratic primary. Unfortunately, Sestak is a tougher opponent for Republican former Representative Pat Toomey who only leads Sestak 45-38 in an early-June Rasmussen poll but trailed Sestak in the latter half of May in Rasmussen and Research 2000 polls.

The problem in Pennsylvania is the same in Illinois: voter fraud. Toomey is going to have to get his numbers up past 50% before this seat should be considered a safe take-over.

#9: Washington – Patty Murray

Former State Senator Dino Rossi finally decided to announce a few weeks ago, making Washington yet another competitive seat. In a late-May Washington Poll, Rossi leads Murray 42-39, but he trails Murray by one point in the Rasmussen poll released just a few days before.

Washington could shape up to be one of Republicans’ best pick-up opportunities, assuming that Rossi takes the Republican nomination. At this point, I think it really could go either way.

#10: California – Barbara Boxer

After winning the endorsement of Sarah Palin, former CEO of Hewlett-Packard Carly Fiorina beat out former Representative Tom Campbell and State Assemblyman Chuck DeVore for the Republican nomination to challenge Barbara Boxer.

Fiorina has trailed Boxer for over a year. The latest USC/Los Angeles Times poll showed her trailing Sen. Boxer 38-44.

California is a solidly blue state, and this seat could continue to develop. If it does, it means that election night has been a route for Democrats and Republicans have already taken control of the House and, possibly, the Senate as well.

#11: Wisconsin – Russ Feingold

Late-May polls from Rasmussen showed a Republican within a few points of Senator Feingold. Businessman Ron Johnson trails by only 2 points at 44-46. There have been no polls for the Republican primary

#12: Connecticut – Chris Dodd (Retiring)

Despite the recent scandal over “misstatements” about his military record, Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal seems set to Republican smash businesswoman Linda McMahon. Even after the scandal, Blumenthal leads McMahon 56-33 in an early-June Rasmussen poll.

This race could develop for Republicans, but at this point I don’t see it happening and, barring any major developments, this race will be downgraded in my next analysis.

Other:

Sens. Daniel Inouye (HI), Barbara Mikulski (MD), Chuck Schumer (NY), Kirsten Gillibrand (NY), Ron Wyden (OR), and Pat Leahy (VT) all seem safe for the moment. One or two more of these seats might become competitive in the future, but it looks like the 12 seats above are the field for competitive Democratic seats.

REPUBLICAN SEATS:

#1: Ohio – George Voinovich (Retiring)

Ohio continues to be the most precarious seat for Republicans to defend in 2010. Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher won the primary for the Democratic nomination against Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, and it looked like he might have some difficulties solidifying Democratic support for him. However, that seems to have worked itself out for Fisher, and he jumped ahead of Republican Representative Rob Portman in every poll from April and May. An early-June Rasmussen poll has Portman bringing the race back to a tie at 43%, but he really needs to gain a few percentage points before we can consider it out of the blue-zone.

Ohio is going to be a squeaker. It’s the Democrats’ #1 pick-up opportunity, and it could go their way even if they lose 6-8 of their own seats. Nevertheless, with the current national mood, I think Ohio might just stay red this year…

#2: Florida – George LeMieux (Retiring)

Florida jumped from the #4 most vulnerable Republican seat to the #2 when Governor Charlie Crist decided to drop out of the Republican primary and challenge Republican former Speaker of the State House Marco Rubio as an Independent. Democrat former Representative Kendrick Meek is also still in the race and should be considered the front-runner for the Democratic nomination, but Florida Democrats seem to be leaving him in droves to support Crist in order to try to have a shot of having the former Republican governor caucus with them.

Crist has been leading the three-way pack since late-May, with the latest early-June Quinnipiac poll showing him leading Rubio and Meek 37-33-17. Rasmussen paints a bit more Republican-friendly picture with Crist and Rubio tied and leading Meek 37-37-15.

One possible outcome is that national Democrats will court Crist until he lets it slip, informally, that he will caucus with the Democrats should he be elected. If that occurs, it could create a groundswell as the rest of Meek’s supporters shift to him or it could suck the wind out of his sails as many of his supporters cross to Rubio.

More likely, Crist will keep his cards close to his chest hoping for 50 Republicans and 49 Democrats, allowing him to be the balance of power and giving him a shot at powerful committee slots no matter which party he chooses to caucus with.

Unfortunately, I think Rubio has his work cut out for him. It’s going to be difficult to pull this one out, but if Crist implodes it’s Rubio in a walk.

#3: Missouri – Kit Bond (Retiring)

Missouri is a right-tilted fickle state. Republican Representative Roy Blunt and Democrat Secretary of State Robin Carnahan had been tied for well over a year before Blunt pulled ahead last January. He kept his lead into May but an early-June Rasmussen poll shows his 8-point lead has been cut to a 45-44 advantage.

Missouri is still a reddish-purple State and was the only swing state to go for John McCain in 2008. I feel confident that it’ll come home for Republicans in the end, but Blunt needs to get busy in the coming months.

#4: Kentucky – Jim Bunning (Retiring)

Kentucky jumps from the #7 most vulnerable Republican seat to our #5, but it looks to climb the list and could possible rank as high as #2 in the coming weeks.

Rand Paul provided the Tea Party movement with it’s first victory of the year when he beat out Secretary of State Trey Grayson for the Republican nomination. Meanwhile Attorney General Jack Conway beat Lieutenant Governor Daniel Mongiardo for the Democratic nod. Paul looked to be the heavy favorite until several disastrous media missteps. An early-June Rasmussen poll shows Paul leading Conway 49-41, a huge change from his 59-34 lead just two weeks before.

If Paul continues to have problems, he can and will easily snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Nevertheless, Kentucky is a fairly solid red State that deeply dislikes President Obama. Barring serious future problems, Paul should pull this one out in the end.

#5: New Hampshire – Judd Gregg (Retiring)

Republican Attorney General Kelly Ayotte faces a primary against several other candidates, but her closest competitor is businessman Bill Binnie. A late-May Magellan Strategies poll showed Ayotte leading Binnie, businessman Jim Bender, and perennial candidate Ovide Lamontagne 38-29-4-9, but as we’ve seen in Nevada and other States, a lead that small could evaporate overnight, especially in a crowded primary.

Meanwhile, Democrats have united behind Representative Paul Hodes.

A mid-May Rasmussen poll shows Hodes trailing Ayotte 38-50 and Binnie 37-49 but leading Bender 41-39 and Lamontagne 43-38.

If Republicans nominate Ayotte, this seat definitely stays red.

#6: North Carolina – Richard Burr

A mid-May Public Policy poll shows Secretary of State Elaine Marshall and former State Senator Cal Cunningham tied at 35% after heading into a run-off for the Democratic primary.

Senator Burr has struggled gaining traction this year in the State that threw out Lizzy Dole in 2008. An early-June Public Policy poll showed him leading Marshall 46-39 and Cunningham 46-35. Those aren’t good numbers for an incumbent in an anti-incumbent year. But this will probably also prove to be an anti-Democrat year, so Burr may be safe in the end.

#7: Kansas – Sam Brownback (Retiring)

A late-May Survey USA poll continues to find Representative Jerry Moran topping Representative Todd Tiahart for the Republican nomination 52-29, building on previous leads. Both are solid conservatives, and either will hold the seat for the Republicans.

#8: Utah – Robert Bennett (Defeated in Primary)

Senator Bennet missed qualifying for the Republican primary at the State Convention.  Mike Lee and Tim Bridgewater are headed to a run-off to see who will win in November.

Other:

Senators Richard Shelby (AL), Lisa Murkowski (AK), John McCain (AZ), Johnny Isakson (GA), Chuck Grassley (IA), Mike Crappo (ID), David Vitter (LA), Tom Coburn (OK), Jim DeMint (SC), and John Thune (SD) are still considered safe. In the current political environment, I’d be surprised if we see any more Republican additions to the above vulnerable seats, but a few may develop.

SYNOPSIS:

Republicans’ hopes to make significant gains in the Senate are healthy but the chances of reclaiming control are now slimmer than they were 2 months ago. It seems that we may have reached a plateau in good fortune, with no new Democratic seats on the horizon.

Republicans look to gain at least 4 seats (ND, DE, AR, and IN) with another 5 (CO, NV, IL, PA, and WA) having a stronger than 50% likelihood of turning Red in November. Republicans look well-poised to also make 2 more seats (CA, and WI) competitive, at the very least taking Democratic money away from competitive seats in other States.

On the other hand, Democrats currently have an excellent shot at 2 seats (OH and FL) with another 4 (MO, KY, NH, and NC) possible. If Republicans play their cards right, the later four will not be in danger next August while the other two could go either way at this point.

This leaves Republicans with no less than 43 seats next autumn. If the election be held today, Republicans would pick up a whopping 9 seats but lose 1, giving them 49 seats. In many ways, 49-50 seats would be the ideal number for Republicans since it would help to maximize gains in 2012. If the Red Wave is bigger than most are predicting, Republicans could finish next November with 52 seats. That would almost guarantee 1-3 more seats flipping as several sitting Democrats could jump ship if they are no longer part of the Majority. These include: Ben Nelson (NE), Bill Nelson (FL), Jon Tester (MT), Jim Webb (VA), Joseph Lieberman (CT), and Robert Casey (PA), all of whom are up for reelection in 2012.

Realistically, I see Republicans with 47-51 seats come January 2011.

Looking forward, 2012 continues to look good for Republicans. Sens. Tester (D-MT), Webb (D-VA), McCaskill (D-MO), Brown (D-OH), Nelson (D-NE), Byrd (D-WV), Kohl (D-WI), Feinstein (D-CA), Akaka (D-HI), and Liberman (I-CT) are all in weak positions to win reelection with Republicans only really playing defensive in MA (Brown).

If Republicans play our cards just right, we could win 2012 with super-majorities in both chambers of congress and the White House, just in time to repeal Obama-Care before it goes into effect in 2014, give Justices Thomas/Scalia a chance to retire without risking their seats going left (as well as the possibility of 1 or 2 moderate-liberal seats coming open), and deal with whatever mess Obama has gotten us into in the Middle-East.

Note: Portions of this diary have been reposted with slight editing from previous of my Senate 2010  Analysis articles.

It has been awhile since my last Senate Analysis: way back in mid-February to be precise. The most shocking thing in the past month and a half is that there really hasn’t been any new development in the Senate races. For several months previously, Republicans had a steady stream of good news and even began to think about the possibility of reclaiming the Majority.

Some minor things have happened, though. And some non-changes have turned out to be more good news for Republicans.

Just a reminder: please remember that my Senate 2010 Analyses are not mt predictions; they are simply my take on where the races are right now.

Democratic Seats:

#1: North Dakota – Byron Dorgan (Retiring)

North Dakota is still (and looks to remain) Republicans’ #1 pick-up opportunity as Governor John Hoeven crushes Democratic challenger State Senator Tracy Potter by a whopping 68-25 in the latest mid-March Rasmussen poll.

We can put a fork in this one. North Dakota is turning bright red in November.

#2: Delaware – Ted Kauffman (Appointed – Retiring)

Republican Representative Michael Castle is way ahead in this race, leading Democrat Chris Coons by over 18 points in late February polls by Research 2000 and Rasmussen. This actually represents a slight shift to Coons, but Castle is so far ahead I seriously doubt Coons has a chance.

Delaware is still an almost guaranteed pick-up. The only reason it isn’t rated as our #1 pick-up is because North Dakota is even more comfortable.

#3: Arkansas – Blanche Lincoln

Senator Lincoln is having a hard time everywhere she looks. She looked so weak against so many unknown Republicans that fellow Democrat Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter decided to challenge her for the Party’s nomination. A late-March Research 2000 poll shows Lincoln leading Halter 44-31, but a mid-April Talk Business poll shows a much closer race at 38-31

Meanwhile, the Republican primary is still crowded with around 8 candidates running. It would have been nice if some of them had dropped out to challenge Democrats further down the ticket. Anyway, Representative John Boozman leads that pack with 46% in the mid-April Talk Business poll. His nearest rival, State Senator Gilbert Baker, attracts a measly 14%.

A late-March Rasmussen poll shows Boozman leading Lincoln 51-36, echoing a mid-March Research 2000 poll showing him leading 49-42. Meanwhile, Boozman leads Halter 48-34 and 48-40 in the same two polls.

Similar polling shows all of the Republican candidates leading both of the Democratic candidates, albeit by slimmer margins.

The only way for Republicans to lose this race would be for them to nominate some minor candidate. Even then, I’d say the State of Clinton is turning red in November….

#4: Colorado – Michael Bennet (Appointed)

No new primary polling, but former Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton is still presumed to lead Ken Buck for the Republican nomination while Senator Bennet is still favored to fend off former Democratic Colorado House Speaker Andrew Romanoff in the Democratic primary.

In an early-April Rasmussen poll, Norton leads Bennet 46-41 and Romanoff 49-38. The same poll showed Buck leading Bennet 44-40 and Romanoff 45-37.

Colorado is definitely purpler than most states, but both Republicans appear to stand excellent chances against both Democrats. I’m confident that, in the end, Colorado will turn a redder shade of purple in November.

#5: Nevada – Harry Reid

Sue Lowden has jumped way ahead of Danny Tarkanian in the race for the Republican nomination to challenge Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. She now leads Tarkanian 45-27 in a mid-April Mason Dixon/LVJR poll. This confirms a February poll showing a break following months of a virtual tie.

The Mason Dixon poll has more good news for Republicans: Lowden leads Reid 46-38… And that’s with Tea Party candidate Jon Ashjian pulling in 5% of the vote!

In the same poll, Tarkanian and Reid are tied at 39 while Ashjian gets 11%.

I was really concerned when the Tea Party announced they would be running a candidate for Reid’s seat, but it seems that Reid is so far gone that Republicans are still favored to win it even with Ashjian in. And I look for Ashjian’s support to dissipate over time as voters realize he isn’t a realistic candidate and exists only to give Reid a chance to keep the seat.

Nevertheless, the Tea Party does make me rank Nevada as a less likely pick-up opportunity than Colorado, especially if Tarkanian pulls out the Republican primary. However, I ultimately feel confident Republicans will eventually dominate.

#6: Indiana – Evan Bayh (Retiring)

We still have no idea who the front runner in the Republican primary is, but it seems likely that it will be former Senator Dan Coats, former Representative John Hosteller, or State Senator Marlin Stutzman.

Meanwhile, Democrats have united behind Representative Brad Ellsworth to try to defend Senator Evan Bayh’s seat.

Whoever the eventual nomination is, Republicans look poised to turn Indiana a darker shade of red in November. In a mid-March Rasmussen poll, Ellsworth trails Coats 34-49, Hosteller 32-50, and Stutzman 34-41.

Indiana has jumped up two places in likelihood of turning red, passing Pennsylvania and Illinois, since my last update.

#7: Pennsylvania – Arlen Specter (Democrat-Republican-Democrat)

Senator Specter’s lead for the Democratic nomination has evaporated in the last few months. The latest mid-April Rasmussen poll has him leading Representative Joe Sestak 44-42, a swing of -9 points for the turn-coat. Nevertheless, this could be an outlier since an early-April Quinnipiac poll showed Specter leading 53-32.

Meanwhile, both polls show Republican former Representative Pat Toomey leading Specter 50-40 and 46-41. He leads Sestak by 47-37 and 42-34.

This race is far from over, and Pennsylvania is actually a fairly comfortably blue state, so we shouldn’t count the Democrats out until the election is over. Toomey can’t relax until he’s sworn in, but Republicans still stand a good chance of taking back this seat (again) in November.

#8: Illinois – Roland Burris (Appointed – Retiring)

In an early-April Rasmussen poll, Republican Representative Mark Kirk leads Democratic State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias 41-37. This is in line with another early-April PPP poll showing Kirk leading Giannoulias 37-33.

It’s clear that Republicans have the upper hand, at least as far as legitimate voters are concerned. But Illinois is a solidly blue state known for voter fraud and corruption. Kirk will need to pull his lead up and pass the 50% mark before I consider this a comfortable win. For now, Republicans stand an even chance of taking President Obama’s old seat.

#9: California – Barbara Boxer

The Republican primary continues to be a three-way fight among former Representative Tom Campbell, CEO of Hewlett-Packard Carly Fiorina, and State Assemblyman Chuck DeVore. The latest Los Angeles Times poll from late-March shows Campbell leading Fiorina and DeVore 29-25-9 respectively. Meanwhile, a mid-March PPIC found Fiorina leading Campbell and DeVore 24-23-8.

Realistically, this has become a two pony show with Fiornia and Campbell vying for the chance to take on Sen. Boxer.

In the latest Rasmussen poll, Boxer leads Campbell 43-41, Fiornia 42-38, and DeVore 42-30. Campbell had had a mid-March polling bump and lead Babs for awhile, but at the moment, the Senator is sweating but safe.

California is a solidly blue state, and this seat could continue to develop. If it does, it means that election night has been a route for Democrats and Republicans have already taken control of the House and, possibly, the Senate as well.

#10: Washington – Patty Murray

Washington could be in play if former State Senator Dino Rossi decides to get in the race. He trails Senator Murray by only 2 points in an early-April Rasmussen report. Unfortunately, he hasn’t made any moves, and it seems that he almost certainly won’t enter the race.

If Rossi enters, this seat becomes competitive. If not, Sen. Murray easily cruises to reelection.

#11: New York – Kirsten Gillibrand (Appointed)

Oh, what could have been…

Former Republican Governor George Pataki announced he wouldn’t challenge Senator Gillibrand, thus effectively ending Republicans’ chances of taking this seat and, with it, severely diminishing the chances of being able to reclaim the Senate in November. Gillibrand could still be vulnerable, but at this point she leads a generic Republican 40-39 in an early-April Rasmussen poll. The problem? There just doesn’t seem to be any realistic “generic Republicans” to challenge her…

#12: Wisconsin – Russ Feingold

Former Governor Tommy Thompson announced he wouldn’t challenge Senator Feingold, ending Republicans’ chances of reddening Wisconsin’s purplish-blue color.

Other:

Sens. Daniel Inouye (HI), Barbara Mikulski (MD), Chuck Schumer (NY), Ron Wyden (OR), and Pat Leahy (VT) all seem safe for the moment, and Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal seems certain to hold Sen. Chris Dodd’s seat (CT). But Sen. Scott Brown proved that no race is a foregone conclusion these days. One or two more of these seats might become competitive in the future.

Republican Seats:

#1 Ohio – George Voinovich (Retiring)

Ohio is proving to be the closest Republican-held seat to watch. For the Democratic nomination, it seems that Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher has etched out a fairly sturdy lead over Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, though that could change.

Meanwhile, an early-April Research 2000 poll shows Brunner leading Republican Representative Rob Portman 41-40 and Fisher leading Portman 43-39. Previous polls have showed Portman roughly tied with both Democratic candidates since last September.

Ohio is going to be a squeaker. It’s the Democrats’ #1 pick-up opportunity, and it could go their way even if they lose 6-8 of their own seats. Nevertheless, with the current national mood, I think Ohio might just stay red this year…

#2: Missouri – Kit Bond (Retiring)

The good news: All polls since mid-January have shown Republican Representative Roy Blunt leading Democrat Secretary of State Robin Carnahan.

The bad news: He can’t seem to get his lead over 5 points.

An early-April Rasmussen poll shows Blunt leading Carnahan 48-42, but he needs to get that up over 50%. Nevertheless, Missouri is a reddish-purple State, being the only swing state to go for John McCain in 2008. I feel confident that it’ll come home for Republicans in the end.

#3: New Hampshire – Judd Gregg (Retiring)

Republican Attorney General Kelly Ayotte faces a primary against perennial candidate Ovide Lamontange. Originally his candidacy was just a boring sequel to his other failed electoral attempts, but he was gaining on Ayotte in a February Research 2000 poll and may stand a good chance of actually winning the Republican nomination.

Meanwhile, Democrats have united behind Representative Paul Hodes.

An early-April Rasmussen poll found Hodes trailing Ayotte 35-50 and Lamontagne 39-44. He leads two other minor candidates.

If Republicans nominate Ayotte, this seat definitely stays red. If they nominate Lamontagne, it probably stays red, and if they nominate someone else, it probably goes blue.

#4: Florida – George LeMieux (Retiring)

Former Speaker of the State House Marco Rubio continues to dominate Governor Charlie Crist for the Republican nomination, leading 56-33 in the latest Quinnipiac University poll, a poll that mirrors every other poll since February.

Unfortunately for Republicans, Crist is now talking about running as an Independent.

Should Crist decide to stay on as governor and not run as an Independent, Rubio leads Democrat former Representative Kendrick Meek 42-38. If Crist performs a miracle and wins the primary, he leads Meek 48-34. Should he decide to run as an Independent, Crist leads both Rubio and Meek 32-30-24.

The biggest loss for Republicans here is not, in my view, the 2010 Senate seat since Crist would most likely caucus with Republicans should he win as an Independent. The biggest loss is the potential challenge to Senator Bill Nelson that Governor Crist could have mounted in 2012. Unfortunately, it looks like Crist is wasting most of his intra-party support on a Senate seat that Republicans should keep regardless of who runs.

The ideal conclusion to this messy battle would be for Rubio and the Republican establishment to promise to support Crist in 2012 in exchange for him gracefully withdrawing before the primary. That just isn’t going to happen though and, unless Jeb Bush decides to challenge him, Sen. Nelson will probably win reelection in 2012.

#5: Arizona – John McCain

A mid-April Rasmussen poll had some shocking news: former Representative J.D. Hayworth now trails Senator McCain by only 5 points (42-47) for the Republican nomination.

Something is going on in Arizona. I’m not sure that Hayworth has any realistic chance of beating McCain, but should he steal the nomination, you can bet that McCain won’t take it lying down. Unless state law forbids it, we can be sure he’ll immediately announce an Independent bid for the general election.

Both Republicans safely lead all Democratic candidates, but there haven’t been any polls on how a three-way race would work out…

#6: North Carolina – Richard Burr

A mid-March PPP poll shows Secretary of State Elaine Marshall continuing to lead former State Senator Cal Cunningham and Kenneth Lewis 20-16-11 for the Democratic primary. It’s true that she is polling lower than ever before, but she’s still the favorite to challenge Senator Burr in November.

Meanwhile, the same poll shows Burr leading Marshall 51-35, Cunningham 51-32, and Lewis 44-31.

Burr has finally gotten his feet under him. I no longer consider this seat realistically competitive unless Lewis somehow pulls an upset victory for the Democratic nomination. Even then, it won’t be seriously competitive.

#7: Kentucky – Jim Bunning (Retiring)

Rand Paul continues to lead Secretary of State Trey Grayson for the Republican nomination in all polls since last November. In the latest, a mid-April Survey USA poll, Paul leads 45-30.

The same poll shows Lieutenant Governor Daniel Mongiardo leading Attorney General Jack Conway 35-32 for the Democratic nomination. This has been tight for awhile, so we’ll probably just have to wait until after the primary to know who the candidate will be.

Regardless, Grayson leads Conway 52-32 and Mongiardo 53-33 in a late-March Rasmussen poll, and Paul also leads Conway 50-36 and Mongiardo 52-37 in the same poll.

The only thing that could make this slightly messy for Republicans is if Grayson runs as an Independent (promising to caucus with the Republicans) after losing the primary. I’m not familiar with Kentucky state law, so this may or may not be a possibility. But even if it is a possibility, it seems unlikely since Grayson would still have a nice job as Secretary of State and can always try again in a few years.

#8: Kansas – Sam Brownback (Retiring)

A late-March Survey USA poll continues to find Representative Jerry Moran topping Representative Todd Tiahart for the Republican nomination 42-32, building on previous leads. Both are solid conservatives, and either will hold the seat for the Republicans.

#9: Utah – Robert Bennett

Utah is a complicated State since the primary will actually be decided at a State Convention in May, with a primary in June should no one have a decent lead. An early-April Rasmussen poll showed Senator Bennet leading Mike Lee, Tim Bridgewater, former Representative Merrill Cook, and Cherilyn Eagar 37-14-14-6-4.

Because of the rules of the Convention, a candidate must receive 60% to avoid a primary. Let’s just hope conservative unite behind anybody-but-Bennet and get him knocked out to avoid a primary.

Regardless of who wins the Republican nod in the end, this seat stays solidly red.

Other:

Senators Richard Shelby (AL), Lisa Murkowski (AK), Johnny Isakson (GA), Chuck Grassley (IA), Mike Crappo (ID), David Vitter (LA), Tom Coburn (OK), Jim DeMint (SC), and John Thune (SD) are still considered safe. In the current political environment, I’d be surprised if we see any more Republican additions to the above vulnerable seats.

Synopsis:

Republicans’ hopes sure have improved in the last 18 months, but it seems like we may have reached a plateau in good fortune, with no new Democratic seats on the horizon and several seats that could have been winnable failing to materialize (namely, New York and Wisconsin with the announcements of Pataki and Thompson).

On one hand, I think it’s probably good, in the long run, for Republicans to not get the Senate back quite yet. This will maximize gains in 2012 when much, much more is at stake. However, at the same time, maximizing gains now would also mean we don’t have to win as much in 2012… but it could also risk giving Obama another 4 years… But having control of the Senate could help keep him in check for the next 2 years… but having him in check may make him more electable in 2012 (as it did Clinton in 1996). It’s a real catch-22 for Republicans.

As of now, Republicans look poised to keep all of their own “endangered” seats. Of the nine Republican-held seats I analyzed, KS and UT have never been in danger of a Democratic take-over; I’ve included them because we aren’t yet sure which Republican will fill their seats come January 2011. NC and KY are also now all but certain to go Republican, and AZ will only go Democratic if Republicans nominate Hayworth and McCain mounts an Independent bid. FL should also go Republican too, unless Crist also decides to mount an Independent bid (even then he would probably caucus with Republicans).

MO, OH, and NH are really our only competitive seats, despite what certain pundits may want to think. The problem for Democrats is that these are all slightly reddish-purple States. In other words, Republicans should do better in these States than in many of the blue States in which they are now polling much better than Democrats (DE, PA, IL). I just don’t see any scenario in which Democrats can take all three of these seats, though one (OH) and possibly two (NH) might slip through the cracks if Republicans, specifically conservatives, insist on snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

Meanwhile, Republicans are sure to take ND, DE, and AR. CO, NV, and IN are all heavily favored for Republicans, and we also stand a better-than-average shot at PA. IL also looks doable, but Kirk needs to solidify Republican support and really get moving if he wants to beat voter-fraud. That makes 8 seats that Republicans have an excellent shot of taking away from Democrats.

CA could continue to develop, but at this point I don’t see it as a realistic possibility. But then, I didn’t see MA as a realistic possibility either. Should it develop, that gives us +9, giving us a 50-50 split in the Senate with VP Biden casting the deciding vote.

WA could also develop if Rossi decides to jump in. At this point, I see WA as more likely than CA.

Right now, Republicans have a good chance of having a 49 seat Minority and a slim chance of bumping that up to a 50-seat Minority, the best of both worlds in my book. It allows Republicans to halt almost all Democratic legislation, it allows enough votes for conservatives to filibuster Obama’s judicial nominees (I’m not personally a fan of the maneuver, but since that’s the way the Democrats played, we’ve got to as well!), and it even gives Republicans enough power to possibly get some of their own stuff through by picking off a few vulnerable Democratic Senators. As gravy, it keeps the Senate in Democratic control so that they retain responsibility for the continuing economic woes that are sure to continue throughout Obama’s reign. It also allows the arrogant President to continue acting as though he has a 60+ majority in the Senate, thus continuing his reelection chances’ souring process that began last summer.

From a Democratic standpoint, the best-case scenario for Obama’s reelection is for Republicans to take the Senate 51-49 and the House by slim majorities. This allows Obama to share the blame with Republicans while still refusing to moderate his agenda, thus making 2012 a neutral or pro-Democrat year instead of the massively pro-Republican year it should be.

The worst case scenario for Obama, in my view, would probably be if Republicans can take a wide majority in both the House and the Senate and continually present conservative, common sense solutions and defeat leftist judge nominations on a straight up-or-down vote. Unfortunately, that simply isn’t an option in the Senate since there just aren’t enough eats in play for Republicans to win back 19 seats this year and have a super-majority.

So the question is, should Republicans aim for 51 seats? My personal opinion is no. I’d rather forego a win in IL, CA, or WA than be stuck at 51 seats, especially since those seats would be ridiculously hard to defend in 2016 anyway.

Of course, the chance remains that 3 November 2010 could see any number of Democrats applying to switch parties, especially if Republicans are on the verge of taking control or have taken control: Ben Nelson (NE), Bill Nelson (FL), Jon Tester (MT), Jim Webb (VA), Joseph Lieberman (CT), and Robert Casey (PA), all of whom are up for reelection in 2012, could decide they have better chances of reelection in 2012 with an “R” after their name. Hopefully, Republicans would be smart about this and only consider letting Webb in…

Realistically, Republicans could have anywhere from 48-53 seats come January 2011.

Looking forward, 2012 continues to look good for Republicans. Sens. Tester (D-MT), Webb (D-VA), McCaskill (D-MO), Brown (D-OH), Nelson (D-NE), Byrd (D-WV), Kohl (D-WI), Feinstein (D-CA), Akaka (D-HI), and Liberman (I-CT) are all in weak positions to win reelection with Republicans only really playing defensive in MA (Brown).

If Republicans play our cards just right, we could win 2012 with super-majorities in both chambers of congress and the White House, just in time to repeal Obama-Care before it goes into effect in 2014, give Justices Thomas/Scalia a chance to retire without risking their seat going left (as well as the possibility of 1 or 2 moderate-liberal seats coming open), and deal with whatever mess Obama has gotten us into in the Middle-East.

I’m breathing easier today.

Yesterday’s earth shattering news that Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) would retire rather than facing reelection continues the good news leading up to what could now be a historic Republican victory in November.

Once again, please note that my Senate 2010 analysis is not a prediction; it is simply my take on where the races are right now. Personally, I look for things to continue to improve for Republicans over the next few months, but Democrats could also recover to minimize Republican gains.

Unfortunately, this mid-February 2010 Senate Analysis will be my last post on Red State until mid-March. I will be back in March to give a rundown of where things stand, but a month is a long time in the political world, especially in an election year. I feel certain that many, many of the following races will have some serious updates by then. Stay tuned!

Meanwhile, several of the following States have no new updates since my last Senate Analysis from last week. Check it out if you’re curious.

One new feature to this analysis is that I have now included the shift since the previous polls in parenthesis. I think this will help explain momentum.

Democratic Seats:

#1: North Dakota – Byron Dorgan (Retiring)

North Dakota continues to be our #1 pick-up opportunity as Governor John Hoeven crushes his nearest Democratic rival former North Dakota Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp 65-29 in the latest Rasmussen poll from early-February.

#2: Delaware – Ted Kauffman (Appointed – Retiring)

NO NEW UPDATE: State Attorney General Beau Biden announced that he will not run against Republican Representative Michael Castle. Biden was the Democrats’ best chance of keeping this seat, and now they are stuck with Chris Coons.

The first poll from Rasmussen showed Castle destroying Coons 56-27. Delaware has definitely become an almost guaranteed pick-up. The only reason it isn’t rated as our #1 pick-up is because North Dakota is even more comfortable.

#3: Arkansas – Blanche Lincoln

The only thing I have to add from my last analysis is that I now believe there is at least a 50% chance that Senator Blanche Lincoln will announce her retirement in the next two months. Other than that…

NO NEW UPDATE: Republican Representative John Boozman announced he would be throwing his hat into the ring of an already crowded primary to challenge incredibly weak Senator Blanche Lincoln. He became the instant front-runner for the nomination, but a surprise could develop if several of the nine other Republican candidates don’t pull out.

Nevertheless, Boozman’s entrance was exceedingly good news for Republicans. A late-January Public Policy poll found Boozman crushing Lincoln 56-33. An early-February Rasmussn poll confirmed this lead when it showed him leading 54-35.

But that’s not all! Republicans are well-positioned to take the seat even if Boozman doesn’t win the nomination. State Senator Gilbert Baker leads Lincoln 52-33, State Senate Minority Leader Kim Hendren leads 51-35, and Curtis Coleman leads 50-34 in that same early-February Rasmussen poll.

Arkansas has jumped from a fairly safe Democratic seat a few months ago to an all-but-assured Republican pick-up.

#4: Colorado – Michael Bennet (Appointed)

NO NEW UPDATE: An early-February Rasmussen poll finally has former Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton, the front-runner for the Republican nomination, topping the 50% mark and leading Senator Bennet 51-37. She also leads former Democratic Colorado House Speaker Andrew Romanoff 45-38.

Even if Norton loses the primary, Republicans are still in good shape to take the seat. Ken Buck leads Sen. Bennet 45-41 and Romanoff 45-39.

It would be nice to have more polling on the primary situation in Colorado, but I’m fairly confident at this point that Republicans will pull this seat off, especially if Norton is the candidate.

#5: Nevada – Harry Reid

The only real update to this race is that it has been announced that the Tea Party is now an official party in Nevada and will be fielding a candidate in November. Adding to this the Libertarian Party’s candidate, Senator Reid might just pull this one out. Nevertheless, I’m not yet downgraded Republicans’ chances of taking over the seat until new polling is released including the Tea candidate (what a stupid name for a political party). Until then…

NO NEW UPDATE: Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid continues to poll badly against both Republican challengers. An early-February Rasmussen poll now has Republican Sue Lowden leading Reid 45-39. This isn’t as big of a lead as Public Policy Poll last month that showed her topping 50% and leading Sen. Reid by 9 points.

Republican Danny Tarkanian leads Reid 47-39 in the same poll. This also shows Reid polling slightly better than he did one month ago.

The most concerning thing about this race is that both Republicans are second-tier candidates who just don’t seem to be catching on with the electorate. Reid is definitely vulnerable, but his numbers are actually beginning to rebound a bit; this worries me because it means that Reid COULD pull this out if Republicans don’t play their cards right.

Republican Lieutenant Governor Brian Krolicki has expressed interest in jumping into the race and trying to give Republicans a bigger name. Unfortunately, the same Rasmussen poll found that he led Reid only 44-41, polling lower than both Lowden and Tarkanian.

It has been awhile since we’ve had any polls in the Republican primary race, but Tarkanian led Lowden by only two points in early January, so it’s anyone’s guess who will be the eventual nominee.

In my last update, I downgraded Nevada for the first time from our #1 pick-up opportunity to our #2. I’ve now continued the downgrade of this seat, not because I don’t think we’ll win it in the end, but because Delaware, Arkansas, and Colorado seem much easier in the end. Nevertheless, I’m confident that Republicans CAN win this seat come November. But we can also grab defeat from the jaws of victory.

#6: Pennsylvania – Arlen Specter (Democrat-Republican-Democrat)

The dear Senator is still leading Representative Joe Sestak 51-36 (-6) for the Democratic primary in the latest Rasmussen poll.

Unfortunately for the dear Senator and for Democrats, Republican former Representative Pat Toomey continues to lead in the polls against both Democrats. He still leads the dear Senator 47-38 (+0) and Sestak 43-35 (+0).

Pennsylvania is anything but a done-deal for Republicans; she tends to be more blue than purple, and voter fraud in Philadelphia should give the Democrats an artificial advantage. Added on that is the relative stability of this race, and I think Spekter could pull it out in the end.

I’m still not willing to bet too much on it, but my feeling right now is that Toomey stands a very good chance of unseating the dear Senator next November.

#7: Illinois – Roland Burris (Appointed – Retiring)

NO NEW UPDATE: State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias won the Democratic nomination and almost immediately began receiving negative exposure for a host of unethical and possibly illegal activity. Moderate Representative Mark Kirk easily won the Republican nomination.

A Rasmussen report released the day after the primary showed Kirk leading Giannoulias 46-40. This represents a shift of nine points from Rasmussen’s poll from December. I’m still hesitant to say that Illinois will materialize, but I think it is doable, depending on how much negative exposure Giannoulias continues to get and whether the Tea Party movement embraces Kirk or chooses to support a third-party candidate.

#8: Indiana – Evan Bayh

With Senator Evan Bayh’s surprise retirement announcement, Indiana jumps from Republicans #10 to #8 pick-up opportunity. I expect that this race will continue to climb the list and may find itself sitting right under North Dakota at #2 next month. Nevertheless, I’m wary to bump it up too quickly until we actually know who the candidates are and see some polling data.

To replace Bayh on the Democratic side of things, there is a limited amount of possibilities. The two names that have the early lead are Representatives Brad Ellsworth and Baron Hill. Both represent districts that lean Republican.

The three big names in the Republican primary are now former Republican Representative John Hostettler, former Republican Senator Daniel Coats, and State Senator Marlin Stutzman. There hasn’t been any primary polling, so there really isn’t any clear indication who is leading here.

I feel confident that, with this field, it doesn’t really matter who the nods go to. Republicans are favored to pick this seat up.

#9: California – Barbara Boxer

Moving in front of New York (Gillibrand), California is still an uphill battle for Republicans. However, a mid-February poll shows all three Republicans gaining on Senator Boxer.

Boxer still leads all three Republican challengers, but she should start sweating. In the latest Ramussen poll, CEO of Hewlett-Packard Carly Fiorina trails by only 42-46 (+4) while former Representative Tom Campbell trails 41-45 (+0) and State Assemblyman Chuck DeVore trails 42-47 (+3).

I still don’t have much faith in pulling California out, but if Republicans continue to improve the way they have recently, we could see California turning red next November.

California is still a seat that may become competitive, but as of now, I don’t really consider it a realistic chance. Time will tell.

#10: New York – Kirsten Gillibrand (Appointed)

NO NEW UPDATES except that this seat has dropped from Republicans #8 to #10 best pick-up opportunity.

Senator Gillibrand seems a bit better positioned for reelection than my last analysis. First, a late Marist Poll showed her leading former Tennessee Representative Harold Ford, Jr. 44-27 for the Democratic primary. We have yet to see if Ford will actually enter the race and, if he does, how bloody it could be.

Another piece of good news for Sen. Gillibrand is that she leads the only announced Republican Candidate, Port Authority Commissioner Bruce Blakemen 52-30. But even Ford leads Blakemen 39-35.

The bad news for Gillibrand is that she is still trailing former Republican Governor George Pataki 49-43. Pataki hasn’t announced he will challenge Gillibrand, but his numbers are an improvement over the last Marist poll from mid-November.

If Pataki runs, this becomes an excellent pick-up opportunity. If he chooses not to, I rather doubt that the GOP stands much chance at turning this seat Red.

#11: Washington – Patty Murray

A mid-February Rasmussen poll confirmed that Washington could be in play if former State Senator Dino Rossi decides to get in the race. Rossi leads Senator Patty Murray 48-46, mirroring his lead in a recent Moore Information poll late last month. If Rossi enters, this seat becomes competitive. If not, Sen. Murray easily cruises to reelection.

#12: Wisconsin – Russ Feingold

Another recent Rasmussen report showed Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI) trailing former Governor Tommy Thompson 47-43. He appears safe unless Thompson enters the race.

#13: Maryland – Barbara Mikulski

The latest rumor, fed by Sen. Bayh’s retirement announcement yesterday, is that Sen. Mikulski is considering retiring. If she does, this race could become competitive if Elrich or Steele jumps in. Otherwise, it’s a fairly safe Democrat hold.

Other:

Sens. Daniel Inouye (HI), Barbara Mikulski (MD), Chuck Schumer (NY), Ron Wyden (OR), and Pat Leahy (VT) all seem safe for the moment, and Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal seems certain to hold Sen. Chris Dodd’s seat (CT). But Sen. Scott Brown proved that no race is a foregone conclusion these days. These seats might become competitive in the future.

Republican Seats:

#1 Ohio – George Voinovich (Retiring)

NO NEW UPDATE: A Rasmussen poll from early-February continues to show the Ohio race to be fairly competitive, with the early edge going slightly to Republican Representative Rob Portman. He has all but sewn up the primary and is now concentrating on his two Democratic challengers, Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner and Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher.

The poll showed Portman leading Brunner 42-38, an increase of two points since the last poll in early-January. Against Fisher, Portman leads 43-39, a decrease of three points since the last early-January poll.

Ohio is going to be a squeaker. I now rate it as more competitive than Missouri. I think they both could go either way but are more than likely to come home for Republicans.

#2: Missouri – Kit Bond (Retiring)

A mid-February Rasmussen poll confirmed that Republican Representative Roy Blunt is now favored over Democrat Secretary of State Robin Carnahan in November. He leads her 49-42 (+1).

While this lead is fairly significant, this is still only the second poll in over a year showing Blunt in the lead, and both polls have been from Rasmussen. Every single other poll in the last year has shown the two candidates in a statistical tie. Nevertheless, I’ve always said I think Missouri will come home for the Republicans, and I think Rasmussen is starting to confirm it. If Blunt can poll over 50% with at least one other polling agency, this race will be seriously downgraded.

#3: New Hampshire – Judd Gregg (Retiring)

Republican Attorney General Kelly Ayotte has slipped a few points in the latest Rasmussen poll in which she still leads Democrat Representative Paul Hodes 46-39 (-2). This is the first backward move for her since polling began last June.

Ayotte also faces a primary against perennial candidate Ovide Lamontange. At the moment, an early-February Research 2000 poll found that she led Lamontange 36-27. That’s perhaps a little too close for comfort, but at this point she is still the favorite for the nod.

If Republicans nominate Lamontagne, we will almost definitely lose the seat. Hodes leads Lamontagne 46-36.

For now, I consider New Hampshire fairly safe, but it is far from certain. Ayotte’s lead is shaky, and if Lamontagne wins the primary, this becomes Democrats’ biggest (and possibly only) pick-up opportunity.

#4: Kentucky – Jim Bunning (Retiring)

NO NEW UPDATE: A late-December Public Policy poll showed Rand Paul leading Secretary of State Trey Grayson by 44-25 in the Republican primary and Attorney General Jack Conway beating Lieutenant Governor Daniel Mongiardo 37-33 on the Democratic side.

An early-February Rasmussen poll again showed that Republicans are well-positioned to keep Kentucky red, but there is a bit of a warning. Grayson leads Conway 44-40 (-5) and Mongiardo 49-35 (+7).

Paul leads Conway 47-39 (+0) and Mongiardo 48-37 (-3).

If Republicans insist on a bloody primary, this seat could be in danger. Nevertheless, I think with the current climate, Paul is still likely to pull out the primary and the general.

#5: North Carolina – Richard Burr

NO NEW UPDATE: A mid-January Public Policy poll shows Senator Burr continuing to build on his lead against all of his Democrat challengers. He now leads Kenneth Lewis 46-34 and Secretary of State Elaine Marshall 44-37

Once again, I would still like Burr to poll above 50%, but I feel confident than the Republicans should have no problem defending this seat in the end. However, North Carolina could surprise us like they did in 2008 if Democrats stabilize themselves. This is one to watch.

#6: Florida – George LeMieux (Retiring)

NO NEW UPDATE: A late-January Fabrizo/McLaughlin poll shows State House Marco Rubio continuing to build his lead over Governor Charlie Crist for the Republican nomination. Rubio leads 44-30. This verifies a slightly older Rasmussen poll that showed Rubio leading Crist 49-37.

In the general, Crist still crushes Meek 47-29 while Rubio leads Meek 42-30.

One wild card here is, if Rubio etches out a close victory over Crist in the primary, Crist could decide to run as an Independent. In the case of the of a three way race, the Fabrizo/McLaughlin poll found that Rubio still leads Crist and Meek 31-26-24 respectively.

The real danger here, I think, is if Crist decides to switch parties and wins the Democratic nomination without Meek in play. I’m not sure of the likeliness of this happening, but if so, I think he would be the heavy favorite to win the general. I would assume that the majority of Meek’s number (24) would be added to Crist’s polling numbers as an independent (26) and he tops 50% easily.

This race could become more competitive for a Democratic take-over depending on how bloody the primary becomes.

#7: Kansas – Sam Brownback (Retiring)

NO NEW UPDATE: A late-January Survey USA poll continues to find Representative Jerry Moran topping Representative Todd Tiahart for the Republican nomination 40-33. Both are solid conservatives, and either should hold the seats for the Republicans. The only way Democrats could make this seat competitive is if former Governor and Secretary of Health and Human Services Kathleen Seblius jumps in. She leads both Republicans in an early-February Research 2000 poll but does not break 50%.

#8: Utah – Robert Bennett

NO NEW UPDATE: Senator Robert Bennett is facing several more conservative challengers in the Republican primary. The candidate will be chosen at the generally conservative Convention in May, so Bennett could be in trouble. Because the nomination will not be done through a primary race, no polling has been done.

Other:

For the first time, Senator David Vitter (R-LA) joins Sens. John McCain (AZ), Lisa Murkowski (AK), John Thune (SD), Tom Coburn (OK), Jim DeMint (SC), Johnny Isakson (GA), Richard Shelby (AL), Chuck Grassley (IA), and Mike Crappo (ID) as all but certain to easily win reelection. More developments could arise in any one of these races, but for now the incumbents all seem safe to win reelection.

Synopsis:

It’s really quite unbelievable the luck that Republicans have had in the last few months, with really only one or two strokes of bad luck. Let us consider some of the major events:

1)      Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA) announcing that he would challenge dear Senator Specter in the Democratic primary

2)      Ted Kauffman (R-DE) announcing that he would seek the open seat

3)      Democrats’ insistence on ignoring the public over health care

4)      Finding top tier candidates in CO, PA, and IL to challenge vulnerable Democratic seats

5)      Finding top tier candidates in NH, MO, and OH to defend vulnerable Republican seats

6)      Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-ND) announcing his retirement

7)      Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) snagging a solidly blue seat away from Democrats

8)      Beau Biden (D-DE) announcing that he would not seek his father’s old Senate seat

9)      Rep. John Boozman (R-AR) announcing that he would challenge Sen. Lincoln

10)  Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) announcing he would not seek reelection.

In contrast, the only two major things that didn’t go Republicans’ way were:

1)      Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT) announcing he would not seek reelection

2)      The registration of the Tea Party in Nevada

I said back in my first analysis in September that Republicans could do no worse than gaining one seat. Such minimal gains are laughable now! I first laid out the Path to the Republican Majority in my late-November analysis. That analysis included CT as one of our top pick-up opportunities and ND and IN were barely on the radar screen. A lot has changed!

Republicans look poised to sweep all of their “endangered” seats. Of the eight I analyzed, KS and UT have never been in danger of a Democratic take-over; I’ve included them because we aren’t yet sure which Republican will fill their seats come January 2011. FL, NC, and KY should be added to that list of all but guaranteed safe seats.

MO, OH, and NH are really our only competitive seats, despite what certain pundits may want to think. The problem for Democrats is that these are all slightly reddish purple States. In other words, Republicans should do better in these States than in many of the blue States that are now considered competitive. I just don’t see any scenario in which Democrats can take all three of these seats, though one or two might slip through the cracks if Republicans play their cards wrong.

As for Republican gains, I can’t help but write this section with a huge grin on my face. Republicans are now way ahead in ND, DE, and AR. Republicans are only slightly less way ahead in CO, NV, and PA, but we are definitely favored to win these seats. IL is also looking good, but we have to wait on this one. IN will probably be a strong pick-up opportunity in my next analysis (in mid-March). So Republicans are now slightly favored or guaranteed a gain of 8 seats. CA could continue to develop for us as well.

For review, we need a total of 10 seats to seize control of the Senate.

Five other races could be added to this set of 9 competitive Democratic races. In WI, WA, and NY (Gillibrand), Republicans already lead Democratic incumbents, but none of them (Thompson, Rossi, and Pataki) have announced.

Another race that could possibly become competitive is NY (Schumer) who has been experiencing poor polling recently. It’s only competitive if Giuliani jumps in against him, but that seems highly unlikely.

The other race that could surprise is Maryland. Online rumors suggest that Senator Barbara Mikulski is thinking about retiring. With the right candidate, this could clench Republican control of the Senate.

But do Republicans really want to control the Senate in 2011-2013? I’m not convinced it would be the best strategy. If Democrats continue to control at a 50-50 split (with VP Biden casting the deciding vote), Republicans will basically halt the far-left agenda but still not be responsible for the continued failure of Obama come 2012. The best-case scenario for Obama’s reelection is for Republicans to take the Senate 51-49 and the House by a slim majority. This allows Obama to share the blame with them while still refusing to moderate his agenda. Most importantly, Obama would most likely still be able to get through leftist judges, especially in the upcoming two Supreme Court vacancies.

The worst case scenario for Obama, on the other hand, would probably be if Republicans can take a wide majority in both the House and the Senate and continually present conservative, common sense solutions and defeat leftist judge nominations on a straight up-or-down vote. Obama could turn right like Clinton did in 1994, but somehow I deeply doubt that, and if he vetoes everything that comes from Congress, the Republicans should be able to paint HIM as the obstructionist. Even if he signs conservative legislation, this will cost him dearly; the Left has gotten so much more radical than they were under Clinton, and if Obama follows Clinton’s lead, he may find himself completely losing all support from his base and possibly earning himself a bloody primary challenge in 2012.

So the question is, should Republicans aim for 51 seats? My personal opinion is no. I’d rather sacrifice a gain in IL than be stuck at 51 seats. However, if it becomes clear that Republicans should gain at least 51 seats, we need to push harder than we have ever before to take at least a few more. That’s possible with the right candidates and under the right circumstances. We could end up with 54+ seats (ND, NV, AR, CO, PA, DE, IL, IN, CA, WI, WA, NY, NY, and MD).

And of course, the chance remains that 3 November 2010 could see any number of Democrats applying to switch parties, especially if Republicans are on the verge of taking control or have taken control by a huge margin: Ben Nelson (NE), Bill Nelson (FL), Jon Tester (MT), Jim Webb (VA), Joseph Liberman (CT), and Robert Casey (PA), all of whom are up for reelection in 2012, could decide they have better chances of reelection in 2012 with an “R” after their name. That could bring us up to 57+.

And 2012 continues to look good for Republicans. Sens. Tester (D-MT), Webb (D-VA), McCaskill (D-MO), Brown (D-OH), Nelson (D-NE), Byrd (D-WV), Kohl (D-WI), Feinstein (D-CA), Akaka (D-HI), and Liberman (I-CT) are all in weak positions to win reelection with Republicans only really playing defensive in MA (Brown).

And 2014 looks even better for Republicans…

Plausibly (not likely, but plausible), we could see the Republican make-up of the Senate increase to 47-54 in 2010, 57-65 in 2012, and 68+ in 2014.

Things keep looking better and better for Republican Senate elections in November. My last analysis had several chunks of good news for Republicans, and this analysis continues the positive news.

The fallout of Sen. Scott Brown’s victory continues to send shock-waves through Washington’s establishment from both parties. The following analysis is where things sit as of 9 February 2010. I look for things to continue to improve for Republicans over the next few months, but it is important to realize that things could drastically improve for Democrats as well.

That said, I’m going to continue my Senate 2010 analysis as I have in the past. These are not my predictions; these are only the way the race stands right now. Much of the following information can and probably will change in the next 9 months.

Once again, I’ve ranked the seats from most likely to flip to least under each Party.

Democratic Seats:

#1: North Dakota – Byron Dorgan (Retiring)

North Dakota continues to be our #1 pick-up opportunity. Barring a major scandal from Governor John Hoeven, he will crush any Democratic challenger.

#2: Delaware – Ted Kauffman (Appointed – Retiring)

I had no new update on this race in my last analysis, but since then, State Attorney General Beau Biden has announced that he will not run against Republican Representative Michael Castle. Biden was the Democrats’ best chance of keeping this seat, and now they are stuck with Chris Coons.

The first poll from Rasmussen showed Castle destroying Coons 56-27. Delaware has definitely become an almost guaranteed pick-up. The only reason it isn’t rated as our #1 pick-up is because North Dakota is even more comfortable.

#3: Arkansas – Blanche Lincoln

Shortly after I posted my last analysis, Republican Representative John Boozman announced he would be throwing his hat into the ring of an already crowded primary to challenge incredibly weak Senator Blanche Lincoln. He became the instant front-runner for the nomination, but a surprise could develop if several of the nine other Republican candidates don’t pull out.

Nevertheless, Boozman’s entrance was exceedingly good news for Republicans. A late-January Public Policy poll found Boozman crushing Lincoln 56-33. An early-February Rasmussn poll confirmed this lead when it showed him leading 54-35.

But that’s not all! Republicans are well-positioned to take the seat even if Boozman doesn’t win the nomination. State Senator Gilbert Baker leads Lincoln 52-33, State Senate Minority Leader Kim Hendren leads 51-35, and Curtis Coleman leads 50-34 in that same early-February Rasmussen poll.

Arkansas has jumped from a fairly safe Democratic seat a few months ago to an all-but-assured Republican pick-up.

#4: Colorado – Michael Bennet (Appointed)

Colorado is the third Senate race to jump up in probability of a switch since my last analysis. An early-February Rasmussen poll finally has former Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton, the front-runner for the Republican nomination, topping the 50% mark and leading Senator Bennet 51-37. She also leads former Democratic Colorado House Speaker Andrew Romanoff 45-38.

Even if Norton loses the primary, Republicans are still in good shape to take the seat. Ken Buck leads Sen. Bennet 45-41 and Romanoff 45-39.

It would be nice to have more polling on the primary situation in Colorado, but I’m fairly confident at this point that Republicans will pull this seat off, especially if Norton is the candidate.

#5: Nevada – Harry Reid

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid continues to poll badly against both Republican challengers. An early-February Rasmussen poll now has Republican Sue Lowden leading Reid 45-39. This isn’t as big of a lead as Public Policy Poll last month that showed her topping 50% and leading Sen. Reid by 9 points.

Republican Danny Tarkanian leads Reid 47-39 in the same poll. This also shows Reid polling slightly better than he did one month ago.

The most concerning thing about this race is that both Republicans are second-tier candidates who just don’t seem to be catching on with the electorate. Reid is definitely vulnerable, but his number are actually beginning to rebound a bit; this worries me because it means that Reid COULD pull this out if Republicans don’t play there cards right.

Republican Lieutenant Governor Brian Krolicki has expressed interest in jumping into the race and trying to give Republicans a bigger name. Unfortunately,, the same Rasmussen poll found that he led Reid 44-41, polling lower than both Lowden and Tarkanian.

It has been awhile since we’ve had any polls in the Republican primary race, but Tarkanian led Lowden by only two points in early January, so it’s anyone’s guess who will be the eventual nominee.

In my last update, I downgraded Nevada for the first time from our #1 pick-up opportunity to our #2. I’ve now continued the downgrade of this seat, not because I don’t think we’ll win it in the end, but because Delaware, Arkansas, and Colorado seem much easier in the end. Nevertheless, I’m confident that Republicans CAN win this seat come November. Whether or not they actually will remains for time to tell.

#6: Pennsylvania – Arlen Specter (Democrat-Republican-Democrat)

Life continues to be tough for the dear Senator from Pennsylvania. There are some bright spots for him, though. He continues to lead Representative Joe Sestak 53-32 for the Democratic primary in the latest Rasmussen poll.

Unfortunately for the dear Senator and for Democrats, Republican former Representative Pat Toomey leads both Specter and Sestak. Toomey leads the dear Senator 45-31 and Sestak 37-33.

Pennsylvania is anything but a done-deal for Republicans; she tends to be more blue than purple, and voter fraud in Philadelphia should give the Democrats an artificial advantage.

I’m still not willing to bet too much on it, but my feeling right now is that Toomey stands a very good chance of unseating the dear Senator next November.

#7: Illinois – Roland Burris (Appointed – Retiring)

Illinois had been sinking in my estimations over my last few analyses, but since my last analysis, things are beginning to look up.

State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias won the Democratic nomination and almost immediately began receiving negative exposure for a host of unethical and possibly illegal activity. Moderate Representative Mark Kirk easily won the Republican nomination.

A Rasmussen report released the day after the primary showed Kirk leading Giannoulias 46-40. This represents a shift of nine points from Rasmussen’s poll from December. I’m still hesitant to say that Illinois will materialize, but I think it is doable, depending on how much negative exposure Giannoulias continues to get and whether the Tea Party movement embraces Kirk or chooses to support a third-party candidate.

#8: New York – Kirsten Gillibrand (Appointed)

Senator Gillibrand seems a bit better positioned for reelection than my last analysis. First, a late Marist Poll showed her leading former Tennessee Representative Harold Ford, Jr. 44-27 for the Democratic primary. We have yet to see if Ford will actually enter the race and, if he does, how bloody it could be.

Another piece of good news for Sen. Gillibrand is that she leads the only announced Republican Candidate, Port Authority Commissioner Bruce Blakemen 52-30. But even Ford leads Blakemen 39-35…

The bad news for Gillibrand is that she is still trailing former Republican Governor George Pataki 49-43. Pataki hasn’t announced he will challenge Gillibrand, but his numbers are an improvement over the last Marist poll from mid-November.

If Pataki runs, this becomes an excellent pick-up opportunity. If he chooses not to, I rather doubt that the GOP stands much chance at turning this seat Red.

#9: California – Barbara Boxer

CEO of Hewlett-Packard Carly Fiorina released her “DemonSheep” commercial attacking fellow Republican former Representative Tom Campbell recently. The ad swept the Internet as the most hilariously painful ad to watch this election season, damaging both candidates pretty heavily. We haven’t had any new polls saying how it may affect the Republican primary,

Nevertheless, a late-January poll showed Campbell leading Fiornia and State Assemblyman Chuck DeVore 27-16-8 in the Republican primary. That’s a pretty sizeable gap in a three-way contest, so Campbell is definitely still the favored to win the nod.

I’m still not sure why they are fighting so much. Senator Boxer leads all three in the latest PPIC poll: Campbell 45-41, Fiornia 48-40, and DeVore 47-39.

California is still a seat that may become competitive, but as of now, I don’t really consider it a realistic chance. Time will tell.

#10: Indiana – Evan Bayh

Representative Mike Pence announced that he would not challenge Senator Bayh, thus eliminating Republicans’ best chances of taking the seat. Still, Republicans aren’t completely without hope in Indiana.

Former Republican Representative John Hostettler announced his candidacy and became the instant front-runner for the Republican primary. A Rasmussen report from late-January showed him trailing Bayh 44-41; not good numbers for a supposedly popular incumbent matched with a former representative. Worse, Bayh wasn’t even able to break 50 when paired with much weaker Republican candidates.

Since this poll, though, former Republican Senator Daniel Coats has announced that he will challenge Bayh. Coats was a fairly popular Senator back in the day, but he retired in 1998 and his seat was taken by… Sen. Evan Bayh. In addition to being a retired politician, Coats also moved out of Indiana and has been living on the East Coast for the last 10 years. This may not sit well with Indiana voters.

Nevertheless, Coats has a great amount of respect and loyalty within the Republican establishment in Indiana and should be the favorite to win the nomination. No polls have been released matching Coats and Bayh, so this race could be competitive… or not.

Other:

A recent Moore Information poll in Washington State showed Senator Patty Murray (D) trailing former State Senator Dino Rossi 43-45. She is safe unless Rossi enters the race.

A recent Rasmussen report showed Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI) trailing former Governor Tommy Thompson 47-43. He appears safe unless Thompson enters the race.

Sens. Daniel Inouye (HI), Barbara Mikulski (MD), Chuck Schumer (NY), Ron Wyden (OR), and Pat Leahy (VT) all seem safe for the moment, and Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal seems certain to hold Sen. Chris Dodd’s seat (CT). But Sen. Scott Brown proved that no race is a foregone conclusion these days. These seats might become competitive in the future.

Republican Seats:

#1 Ohio – George Voinovich (Retiring)

A new Rasmussen poll from early-February continues to show the Ohio race to be fairly competitive, with the early edge going slightly to Republican Representative Rob Portman. He has all but sewn up the primary and is now concentrating on his two Democratic challengers, Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner and Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher.

The poll showed Portman leading Brunner 42-38, an increase of two points since the last poll in early-January. Against Fisher, Portman leads 43-39, an decrease of his of three points since the last early-January poll.

Ohio is going to be a squeaker. I now rate it as more competitive than Missouri, but in reality I think they both could go either way but are more than likely to come home for Republicans.

#2: Missouri – Kit Bond (Retiring)

NO NEW UPDATE: Missouri continues to be one of Republicans’ shakiest seats to defend in November, but the latest Rasmussen report from mid-January is good news: Republican Representative Roy Blunt leads Democrat Secretary of State Robin Carnahan 49-43.

While this lead is fairly significant, this is the first poll in over a year showing Blunt in the lead; the others have all been statistical ties. I’ve always said I think Missouri will come home for the Republicans, but this poll might be an outlier and the race is probably still tight. Nevertheless, I think this is a good sign for Blunt and I’ve slightly downgraded the chances of it switching.

#3: New Hampshire – Judd Gregg (Retiring)

Republican Attorney General Kelly Ayotte seems well position to get the nomination, according to an early-February Research 2000 poll. She leads her closest challenger, perennial candidate Ovide Lamontange 36-27. That’s perhaps a little too close for comfort, but at this point she is still the favorite for the nod.

In the general, Ayotte leads Democrat Representative Paul Hodes 46-39. This continues to reflect an incremental improvement for Ayotte.

If Republicans nominate Lamontagne, we will almost definitely lose the seat. Hodes leads Lamontagne 46-36.

For now, I consider New Hampshire fairly safe. If Lamontagne wins the primary, this becomes Democrats’ biggest (and possibly only) pick-up opportunity.

#4: Kentucky – Jim Bunning (Retiring)

No new updates in either primary race, but the late-December Public Policy poll showed Rand Paul leading Secretary of State Trey Grayson by 44-25 in the Republican race and Attorney General Jack Conway beating Lieutenant Governor Daniel Mongiardo 37-33 on the Democratic side of things.

An early-February Rasmussen poll again showed that Republicans are well-positioned to keep Kentucky red, but there is a bit of a warning. Grayson leads Conway 44-40 (-5 points from January’s poll) and Mongiardo 49-35 (+7 points from January).

Paul leads Conway 47-39 (no change from January) and Mongiardo 48-37 (-3 points from January’s poll).

If Republicans insist on a bloody primary, this seat could be in danger. Nevertheless, I think with the current climate, Paul is still likely to pull out the primary and the general.

#5: North Carolina – Richard Burr

NO NEW UPDATE: A mid-January Public Policy poll shows Senator Burr continuing to build on his lead against all of his Democrat challengers. He now leads Kenneth Lewis 46-34 and Secretary of State Elaine Marshall 44-37

Once again, I would feel still like Burr to poll above 50%, but I feel confident than the Republicans should have no problem defending this seat in the end. However, North Carolina could surprise us like they did in 2008 if Democrats stabilize themselves. This is one to watch.

#6: Florida – George LeMieux (Retiring)

A late-January Fabrizo/McLaughlin poll shows State House Marco Rubio continuing to build his lead over Governor Charlie Crist for the Republican nomination. Rubio leads 44-30. This verifies a slightly older Rasmussen poll that showed Rubio leading Crist 49-37.

In the general, Crist still crushes Meek 47-29 while Rubio leads Meek 42-30.

The wild card here is that, if Rubio etches out a close victory over Crist in the primary, Crist could decide to run as an independent. In the case of the of a three way race, the Fabrizo/McLaughlin poll found that Rubio still leads Crist and Meek 31-26-24 respectively.

The real danger here, I think, is if Crist decides to switch parties and wins the Democratic nomination without Meek in play. I’m not sure of the likeliness of this happening, but if so, I think he would be the heavy favorite to win the general. I would assume that the majority of Meek’s number (24) would be added to Crist’s polling numbers as an independent (26) and he tops 50% easily.

This race could become more competitive depending on how bloddy the primary becomes.

#7: Louisiana – David Vitter

Republican Secretary of State Jay Dardenne announced that he would not be challenging Senator Vitter in the primary. Multiple mid-January polls shoed Vitter leading Democrat Representative Charlie Melancon with over 50% of the vote.

This seat was only considered competitive because we weren’t sure which Republican would be Senator from Louisiana come January 2011. It will be removed from the competitive seats in my next analysis.

#8: Kansas – Sam Brownback (Retiring)

A late-January Survey USA poll continues to find Representative Jerry Moran topping Representative Todd Tiahart for the Republican nomination 40-33. Both are solid conservatives, and either should hold the seats for the Republicans. The only way Democrats could make this seat competitive is if former Governor and Secretary of Health and Human Services Kathleen Seblius jumps in. She leads both Republicans in an early-February Research 2000 poll but does not break 50%.

#9: Utah – Robert Bennett

NO NEW UPDATE: Senator Robert Bennett is facing several more conservative challengers in the Republican primary. The candidate will be chosen at the generally conservative Convention in May, so Bennett could be in trouble. Because the nomination will not be done through a primary race, no polling has been done.

Other:

Sens. John McCain (AZ), Lisa Murkowski (AK), John Thune (SD), Tom Coburn (OK), Jim DeMint (SC), Johnny Isakson (GA), Richard Shelby (AL), Chuck Grassley (IA), and Mike Crappo (ID) are all almost certain to easily win reelection.

Synopsis:

Republicans continue to improve their outlook for November’s Senate races, and more and more pundits are beginning to speculate that Republicans could, if the planets align just the right way, retake the majority. Senator Scott Brown’s historic win in Massachusetts sounds a warning bell for Democrats: Change your ways or you will lose Congress in November.

I’m still wary of saying it will happen, but the road to 51 Republicans in the Senate seems to stretch broader and brighter with each of my analysis (the sole exception was when Dodd retired, thus taking CT from our #1 pick-up to a solid Democratic hold).

The road, nevertheless, is there. Republicans must hold seats in OH, MO, NH, KY, NC, and FL. We easily take seats in ND, DE, and AR. We are extremely well-positioned in CO, PA, NV and, for the first time in a long time, I actually thing we have at least a 50% chance of taking IL. That gives us 48 seats. We still need three more…

NY (Gillibrand) is ripe for the picking… if the New York GOP could get their act together.

And speaking of NY, recent polls show that Senator Chuck Schummer could also be vulnerable, but only with the right challenger. Giuliani could probably defeat him, and if Pataki took out Gillibrand the GOP could be poised to sweep New York. But for now, Giuliani maintains that he won’t run and Pataki continues to remain undecided.

Indiana may be competitive; we don’t yet know what the entrance of former Senator Coats means to the race.

I don’t really consider CA a likely switch. WA and WI are also fairly safe for the Democrats… for now. These two seats could become some of our best pick-up opportunities if the right candidates declare. Alternatively, there could be one or two more surprise retirements in the Senate that open up another heretofore presumed safe Democratic seat.

In the end, I think Republicans chances of having a healthy minority are most likely. We have a decent chance of re-taking the majority, and we could, if the perfect storm ensues, end up with as many as 54 Republican Senators comes January 2011. That’s extremely unlikely, but the fact that it is even on the radar represents a MASSIVE shift in Republicans’ political fortunes in the last year. If the next 9 months are as favorable to Republicans as the last 9 have been, it might become a reality.

And of course, the slim chance remains that 3 November 2010 could see any number of Democrats applying to switch parties, especially if Republicans are on the verge of taking control: Ben Nelson (NE), Bill Nelson (FL), Jon Tester (MT), Jim Webb (VA), Joseph Liberman (CT), and Robert Casey (PA), all of whom are up for reelection in 2012, could decide they have better chances of reelection in 2012 with an “R” after their name.

Looking forward again to 2012, Republicans are extremely well-positioned to make further gains. Sens. Jon Tester (D-MT), Jim Webb (D-VA), Claire McCaskill (D-MO), and Sherrod Brown (D-OH) already start with “just average” chances at reelection. If the year is particularly nice to Republicans, they could all go down in flames, especially if big-name super-star candidates decide to challenge them. And of course, that isn’t including the dead-Senator-walking Ben Nelson (D-NE) who is all but sure to lose reelection.

Democratic retirements, especially if they lose the majority in 2012, could prove to be even more bad news for Democrats: Robert Byrd (D-WV) will be over 95 come November 2012; Herb Kohl (D-WI) will be 77, Diane Feinstein (D-CA) will be 79, and several others may simply decide that they’ve had enough of politics, especially if the mood is still anti-Democrat. We may see several Senators follow Byron Dorgan’s example and take an early retirement.

Additionally, Governor Linda Lingle (R-HI) gives Republicans a good chance of beating Senator Akaka (D-HI) if she were to challenge him. Governor Jodi Rell (R-CT) could also easily beat Joseph Liberman (I-CT) in a three-way contest with a real Democrat and she would stand a good chance of beating him in a two-way contest. Likewise, if the climate is still toxic, Governor Jim Douglas could challenge Senator Sanders in VT.

Republicans will be playing defensive with Scott Brown in Massachusetts. Other than that, competitive Republican seats will be hard to come by in 2012. One or two may develop, but it certainly won’t be a wave year for Democrats no matter what happens.

So now we have a road map to 65 seats by 2013. Stay tuned to see if Republicans develop a chance at reaching the super-super majority of 67 seats.

And 2014 looks even better for Republicans…

Plausibly (not likely, but plausible), we could see the Republican make-up of the Senate increase to 47-53 in 2010, 56-64 in 2012, and 66+ in 2014.

Much has been said about the need for the Republican Party to create a “Contract with America 2.0.” It seems hopeful that party officials are thinking about this, particular leaders in the Republican House caucus. Such a Contract should include all of the major areas of interest to the traditional conservative alliance (Social, Financial, and Defense conservatives). I’m of the decided opinion that such a Contract, appealing to these three factions by offering common-sense solutions and ideas to current hot-button issues (abortion, immigration, defense, budget, government spending, etc.) would deliver a majority in the House for the Republican Party. Such a Contract may even deliver a majority in the Senate.

However, I think there is another group of constituents that the Republican Party should try to win over that could offer Republicans a chance at a super-majority in the next two election cycles. This is the group of people, most likely conservative or moderate in sensibilities, who habitually stay at home on Election Day or vote third party simply because they no longer think that the current two parties represent them. This is, I think, a logical outcome of many of the current political realities of our current Republic and the continued disintegration of the form of government our Founders designed the Republic to be.

The last 5 years have shown us that corruption is rampant in both parties. It has also shown us that, while politicians talk strongly about “ethics” and “cleaning up the corruption,” once they get to Washington, very few of them actually do it. There are reasons for this, especially in the election of Representatives: very few incumbents actually face competitive races. In 2008, for example, four (out of 435) Representatives lost their primary reelection bids. Only 19 lost their general election campaigns. This meant that only 5.3% of the House actually turned over because of an incumbent losing his or her reelection bid. In 2006, the year Democrats seized control of the House, only two members lost their primary reelection bids while 22 incumbents lost their reelection bids. Again, this represents only 5.5% of the House membership. In 1994, the year of the Republican Revolution, a whopping 34 incumbents lost reelection, bringing the percentage of incumbents who lost their reelection to an anemic 7.8% of the total membership of the House.

For comparison, in 2006, six incumbent Senators (out of 33 races) lost their reelection bids. This represents an 18.2% of the seats up for reelection in 2006. Five incumbent Senators (out of 35) lost reelection in 2008, representing 14.3% of the seats up for reelection.

The power of incumbency should not work this way. The Founders believed that the House of Representatives should represent the current mood of the populace, whereas the Senate should be a more steady check on the passions of the day. House Members should be more vulnerable to the shifting to the current mood of the country. Unfortunately, a host of small, large, gradual, and sudden changes have chipped away at form of government our Founders gave us.

One of the greatest problems in our Republic right now is that voters simply feel disconnected and frustrated with our elected officials. This is true of registered Republicans, Democrats, and Independents and citizens from all political persuasions: libertarian, liberal, conservative, or moderate. In short, through corruptions of the Founders’ original intentions, the political structure in Washington has become disconnected from the common people. The average citizen, despite the recent Tea Parties and Moveon.org-type organizations, feels that they really have no power over their government.

Our Republic has lost many important elements of Democracy.

I firmly believe that the Republican Party should be able to answer these voters’ concerns. Below are several ideas that I think Republicans should present as ideas for helping to beat corruption and make Congress more accountable to voters. I hope to discuss each one in future diaries.

1. Term Limits – This was in the 1994 Contract with America, and should have been hammered away throughout Republican control of Congress.

2. Outlaw gerrymandering – Both parties have practiced this heavily recently to protect incumbents, thus working against the basic premises that the Founders had that the House should be in a constant state of change.

3. Increase the size of the House – Representatives currently represent anywhere from 544,270 constituents to almost a million, with an average of 650,000 constitutions per Representative. The Founders required 1 Representative for no more than 40,000 constitutions, and George Washington argued that even this was too many for one Representative and wanted it reduced to 30,000. For comparison, most other representative bodies in the West have members who represent between 80,000 and 130,000 constituents.

4. Electoral College Reform – Require States to award votes based on congressional district results instead of the current “winner takes all” approach that we currently have.

5. Require States to cover House Members’ budgets.

6. Pass universal suffrage – Allow minors’ guardians to vote in abstentia for them.

7. Cede the residential areas of DC back to Maryland.

These are not ideas that are Republican v. Democrat or conservative v. liberal. These solutions are sensible solutions to some very real problems that have developed in our Republic.

However, from a pragmatic standpoint, since I feel that the vast majority of Americans are decent, conservative, traditional, hard-working citizens, I believe these changes would represent a long-standing net benefit for the Republican Party, since we are the party that currently represents those types of citizens.

I must emphasize that, while I think most of the above solutions would benefit Republicans in the long-run, that is NOT the reason I am suggesting them. I am suggesting them because they are steps to help return the U.S. government to U.S. citizens.

All bets are off for every Senate competition in 2010. Republican Scott Brown’s surprise victory in Massachusetts, arguably the most liberal State in the Union, showed us, more than any of the upsets from 2006 or 2008, that no party has dominate control of any particular Senate seat.

That said, I’m going to continue my Senate 2010 analysis as I have in the past. These are not my predictions; these are only the way the race stands right now. Much of the following information can and probably will change in the next 10 months.

Once again, I’ve ranked the seats from most likely to flip to least under each Party.

Democrat Seats:

North Dakota – Byron Dorgan (Retiring)

Since my last update, right after Sen. Dorgan’s retirement announcement, North Dakota has jumped from our #2 best chance to an overwhelming #1.

Popular Republican Governor John Hoeven officially threw his hat into the ring on January 12, all but guaranteeing Republican take over of this seat. While some Republicans would have preferred him to wait until 2012 to challenge North Dakota’s other Democratic Senator, it gives Republicans at least one guaranteed pick-up come November.

On the Democratic side, Rep. Earl Pomeroy has declined to run against Gov. Hoeven. Whoever the eventual nominee is, he or she will be crushed by Hoeven.

Nevada – Harry Reid

Things keep going from bad too worse for poor Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. A mid-January poll from Public Policy Polling has Republican Sue Lowden now breaking the 50% mark and leading Reid 51-41. Republican Danny Tarkanian also leads Reid 50-42.

A recent Mason Dixon poll from early-January has Tarkanian leading Loweden 28-26 in the primary.

But there may be a joker in the deck: Republican Lieutenant Governor Brian Krolicki has suddenly expressed interest in running. No polls have been released either with Krolicki in the primary or against Reid. He has won state-wide before, so that should make him a stronger candidate than either Lowden or Tarkanian. The downside is that he had been charged several felonies, only to have them thrown out on a technicality.

In my last update I said I would feel more comfortable if one of the Republicans polled consistently above 50%. I’d still like to see that, but I’m becoming more convinced that Nevada is the Republicans’ seat to take, whoever the eventual nominee is.

Colorado – Michael Bennet (Appointed)

A mid-January Rasmussen poll has Former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton, the front-runner for the Republican nomination, leading Sen. Bennet 49-37. I rank this one lower than Nevada only because Bennet is still fairly unknown in Colorado and because Norton needs to break that 50% ceiling before I improve her chance of taking the seat.

But the January poll had every Republican candidate ahead of every Democratic candidate, so Colorado looks to be a fairly certain switch.

Arkansas – Blanche Lincoln

Sen. Blanche Lincoln, for the first time, now trails every one of her potential Republican rivals in the latest Rasmussen poll from early-January. State Senator Gilbert Baker leads Lincoln 51-39 while State Senate Minority Leader Kim Hendren leads 47-39 and Curtis Coleman leads 48-38.

Things are far from certain in Arkansas. For one thing, Sen. Lincoln may be getting a primary challenge from Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter. If Halter does challenge Lincoln, this would probably increase Republican chances of taking the seat since he seems to be determined to challenge her from the left.

Or Sen. Lincoln could decide she needs “more time with her family” and simply follow Sen. Dorgan’s example. It’s unclear whether this would increase or decrease Republican chances of taking the seat. One of the popular Blue-Dog Democrats that opposed ObamaCare could possibly keep the seat for the Democrats, but that doesn’t seem to be likely at this point. Thanks to Obama’s high disapproval numbers in Arkansas,my guess is that, regardless of who the eventual nominees are for either party, this seat turns red.

Delaware – Ted Kauffman (Appointed – Retiring)

NO NEW UPDATE: Still no confirmation from State Attorney General Beau Biden on whether he will run. This seems bizarre, but it’s impossible to know whether his delay means that he is more likely to run or less likely.

If he decides to run, Democrats will still have to spend money to win. Republican Representative Michael Castle leads him in an early-December Public Policy poll 45-39.

Whoever the eventually Democratic nomination is, be sure that Delaware will receive a lot of visits both from President Obama and Vice-President Biden.

I still rate Delaware as a fairly good pick-up opportunity, but it would be a lot easier if Biden decides not to run.

Pennsylvania – Arlen Specter (Party-Switcher)

A late-January Rasmussen poll now has Democrats worried that Republicans may be rolling up the 2010 elections.

First, the poll found that Senator Arlen Specter still leads Representative Joe Sestak 53-32 for the Democratic primary. This represents a slight increase of support for the dear Senator.

But the shocking part is that the same poll found Republican former Representative Pat Toomey leading the dear Senator 49-40! Toomey also polls 43-35 against Sestak, so he is clearly the front-runner in this race no matter who the Democratic candidate ends up being.

I’m still not willing to bet too much on it, but my feeling right now is that Toomey stands a very good chance of beating the dear Senator next November.

But this is Pennsylvania, and with Pennsylvania comes a host of voter fraud possibilities. Toomey will have to win by several points in order to actually take this seat.

New York – Kirsten Gillibrand (Appointed)

Since former Tennessee Representative Harold Ford, Jr. announced he was interested in challenging Senator Gillibrand for the Democratic nomination, we’ve seen three polls (Rasmussen, Siena, and Marist) showing Gillibrand with a shaky-but-firm lead for the nomination. She needs to be sweating, but right now she’s favored to get the nod.

Her greater worry is the general. A mid-January Rasmussen poll showed her beating a “Generic Republican” only 39-34 (although for some reason they included Ford in the poll as well, so this number is likely much higher in reality). The real shocker was the mid-January Siena poll showing Republican former Governor George Pataki trampling Gillibrand 51-38.

Pataki isn’t as strong of a candidate as Giuliani would have been, but he stands an excellent chance of turning this seat red IF he decides to run. He hasn’t announced his intentions. Representative Peter King is another wild card; he has announced that he’s re-re-considering his decision not to run, but he’s still keeping his cards close to his chest.

Apparently New York Republicans don’t feel any need to hurry with their decisions. This seat is definitely doable, much more so than last month, but only with the right candidate.

I’ve bumped this seat above Illinois only because, should Gov. Pataki decide to run, I think this race would ultimately break for the Republicans.

Illinois – Roland Burris (Appointed – Retiring)

NO NEW UPDATE: Alexi Giannoulias still appears to be the front runner in the Democrat primary. A mid-December Chicago Tribune has him leading his closest rival, Cheryl Jackson, 31-14. None of the other candidates scratch 10%. The same poll has Representative Mark Kirk claiming 41% for the Republican nod while none of the other candidates even get 5%.

Sadly, this race seems to be slipping away from Republicans. The latest, an early-December Rasmussen report now shows Giannoulias leading Kirk 42-39. This is almost the converse polling from the same Rasmussen poll last August. Kirk’s lead has never been strong and it seems it’s slowly dissipating now.

And, of course, this is Illinois, so Republicans would have to be polling more than 5% more than Democrats to actually beat the voting-fraud in Chicago.

A lot could develop here, but I think President Obama’s old senate seat is no longer a plausible pick-up for the Republicans.

California – Barbara Boxer

Earlier this month former Representative Tom Campbell announced that he would challenge former CEO of Hewlett-Packard Carly Fiorina and State Assemblyman Chuck DeVore for the Republican nomination. A fairly hasty Field poll released in mid-January shows Campbell with a good chance of taking the nomination: He leads Fiorina and DeVore 30-26-6 respectively. This seems to indicate that DeVore’s candidacy has imploded with Campbell’s announcement.

While Campbell’s entrance does slightly increase Republican chances of replacing “Senator” Boxer, she still leads all of her Republican challengers in the same poll: Fiorina 50-36, DeVore 51-36, and Campbell 48-36.

After Massachusetts, I’m not sure I would label this race as a “phantom pick opportunity for Republicans” as I did in my last analysis. But it’s still a long-shot.

Indiana – Evan Bayh

Representative Mike Pence has hinted that he may be considering running against Bayh. This may be a ruse to get the Senator to act more moderately in the following months, but it would be an uphill climb for Republicans even if Pence did decide to get I in. No polls have been taken on this match-up, but Bayh seems fairly comfortable in his seat.

We do have four declared Republian candidates: Former Congressman John Hostettler, State Senator Marlin Stutzman, and businessmen Richard Behney and Don Bates Jr.

This is another race to watch for future developments, but for now the Democrats are favored to retain the seat.

Connecticut – Chris Dodd (Retiring)

The first polls have been released after Senator Chris Dodd’s decision not to run for re-election. Unfortunately for our side, it appears that State Attorney General Richard Blumenthal has easily saved what was once our best pick-up opportunity.

Every poll released since early-January shows Blumenthal thrashing every Republican challenger by no less than 19 points.

Something may develop in Blumenthal’s candidacy à la Martha Coakley, but until that time, this seat is not turning red anytime soon. It will most likely join HI, WA, OR, MD, VT, WI, and NY as safe seats in my next update.

Other:

Sens. Daniel Inouye (HI), Barbara Mikulski (MD), Chuck Schumer (NY), Ron Wyden (OR), Patty Murray (WA), Russ Feingold (WI) and Pat Leahy (VT) all seem safe for the moment. But after Sen. Scott Brown’s win in Massachusetts, nothing can be too certain these days. These seats might become competitive in the future.

Republican Seats:

Ohio – George Voinovich (Retiring)

Two new polls from mid-January in Ohio show Republican Representative Rob Portman increasing his lead since my last analysis. In the Rasmussen poll, Portman leads Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner (D) 41-35 and Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher (D) 37-31.

Portman’s lead is widening, but the slow speed of his growth is making me uncomfortable. I’ve switched Ohio to Republicans’ most vulnerable seat not because I think Portman won’t pull it off, but because recent news in Missouri seems to be more positive than Portman’s slow gain in support. In actuality, I would probably rank them as equally vulnerable: If we lose one, we probably lose the other.

Missouri – Kit Bond (Retiring)

Missouri continues to be Republicans’ shakiest seat to defend in November, but the latest Rasmussen report from mid-January is good news: Republican Representative Roy Blunt leads Democrat Secretary of State Robin Carnahan 49-43.

While this lead is fairly significant, this is the first poll in over a year showing Blunt in the lead; the others have all been statistical ties. I’ve always said I think Missouri will come home for the Republicans, but this poll might be an outlier and the race is probably still tight. Nevertheless, I think this is a good sign for Blunt and I’ve slightly downgraded the chances of it switching.

New Hampshire – Judd Gregg (Retiring)

The mid-January Rasmussen report continues to show Republican Attorney General Kelly Ayotte building on her lead over Democrat challenger Representative Paul Hodes. She now leads 49-40.

As with Reps. Bond and Portman, I’d fell better if Ayotte polled above 50%, but I’m fairly confident this race is ours in the end. And since New Hampshire isn’t known for voter fraud the way Ohio and St. Louis are, I think she’s more secure than Portman or Blunt.

Kentucky – Jim Bunning (Retiring)

An early-January Rasmussen poll again showed that Republicans are well-positioned to keep Kentucky red. Republican Secretary of State Trey Grayson leads Democrat Attorney General Jack Conway 45-35 and Democrat Lieutenant Governor Daniel Mongiardo 44-37 while Republican Rand Paul leads Conway 46-38 and Mongiardo 49-35.

We haven’t seen any updates in either primary race, but the late-December Public Policy poll showed Paul leading Grayson by 44-25 and Conway beating Mongiardo 37-33.

This race is almost certain for Republicans, but I’d like to see the Republicans creep over the 50% mark. The real question will be whether we get Senator Grayson or Senator Paul.

North Carolina – Richard Burr

A mid-January Public Policy poll shows Senator Burr continuing to build on his lead against all of his Democrat challengers. He now leads Kenneth Lewis 46-34 and Secretary of State Elaine Marshall 44-37

Once again, I would feel still like Burr to poll above 50%, but I feel confident than the Republicans should have no problem defending this seat in the end. However, North Carolina could surprise us like they did in 2008 if Democrats stabilize themselves. This is one to watch.

Florida – George LeMieux (Retiring)

NO NEW UPDATE: A mid-December Rasmussen poll has, for the first time, former Speaker of the State House Marco Rubio tying Governor Charlie Crist for the Republican primary. This might have had Democrats rejoicing since, until that time, Rubio seemed the weaker candidate against presumed Democratic candidate Representative Kendrick Meek.

However, the same poll found Rubio leading Meek 49-35 while Crist only leads 42-36.

This race is almost assured to stay in Republican hands whoever the final winner is of the primary.

Louisiana – David Vitter

The only reason Louisiana is still on this list is because we still don’t yet know whether Senator Vitter will lose his primary to Reprublican Secretary of State Jay Dardenne. We haven’t had any updates on that race since last March, so it could be anywhere.

In a mid-January Rasmussen poll, Vitter leads Democrat Representative Charlie Melancon 53-35 while Dardenne leads him 53-31.

This seat stays red.

Kansas – Sam Brownback (Retiring)

NO NEW UPDATE: An early-December Survey USA poll finds Representative Jerry Moran topping Representative Todd Tiahart for the Republican nomination 37-34. Both are solid conservatives, and either should hold the seats for the Republicans. Nor word yet on who the Democrats will put up as their sacrificial lamb.

Utah – Robert Bennett

NO NEW UPDATE: Senator Robert Bennett is facing several more conservative challengers in the Republican primary. The candidate will be chosen at the generally conservative Convention, so Bennett could be in trouble. Because the nomination will not be done through a primary race, no polling has been done.

Other:

John McCain (AZ) joins Sens. Lisa Murkowski (AK), John Thune (SD), Tom Coburn (OK), Jim DeMint (SC), Johnny Isakson (GA), Richard Shelby (AL), Chuck Grassley (IA), and Mike Crappo (ID) in the group of Republican Senators who are almost certain to easily win reelection.

Synopsis:

Republicans are even better position than they were at the beginning of the month to put a dent in Democrats’ majority. Senator Scott Brown’s win in Massachusetts showed that the national tide is moving against Democrats and, if they don’t wake up, they could lose big this November. It also changed the balance of the Senate from 60-40 to 59-41, meaning that Republicans only need pick up 10 more seats to win control of the Senate.

I’m still doubtful that this is possibly, or even desirable, for 2010. In the end, Republicans should defend all of our “endangered” seats: OH, MO, NH, KY, NC, FL, and LA. The last three or four were never even really competitive. We should also easily take ND, NV, CO, and AR, with DE and PA being excellent pick-up opportunities as well.

That gives us 47 seats. We need four more to hit the magic 51.

With the right candidates running in the right political weather, Republicans could further pick up NY and IL.

But we still have to find two more seats.

CA and IN are the most likely as of this point to become competitive. I don’t think either will when all is said and done, but we might stand a chance of picking off one or both of these if all of the other races break our way.

And if these seats are in play, then WA, WI and possibly even OR are in play with the right candidates. Those candidates haven’t yet materialized, or even been hinting that they’re going to materialize, but then no one saw State Senator Scott Brown as a realistic challenge to Attorney General Martha Coakley either.

Alternatively, 3 November 2010 could see any number of Democrats applying to switch parties and hand Republicans control of the Senate: Ben Nelson (NE), Bill Nelson (FL), Jon Tester (MT), Jim Webb (VA), Joseph Liberman (CT), and Robert Casey (PA), all of whom are up for reelection in 2012, could decide they have better chances of reelection in 2012 with an “R” after their name.

But I’m of the decided opinion that perhaps Republicans would be better off with a 50-50 tie in the Senate, allowing Democrats to retain control and thus take full credit for the continued failure of… well, Obama’s presidency. But a 50-50 split would mean that Republicans would be able to stop the vast majority of the Democrats agenda.

Regardless of whether Republicans actually reclaim the Majority in 2010 or simply become a powerful Minority, 2012 offers to expand Republican gains made in 2010. There were several seats in 2006 that should never have turned blue and have an excellent chance of flipping back in 2012. They include Sens. Jon Tester in MT, Jim Webb in VA, Claire McCaskill in MO, and Sherrod Brown in OH. With the right candidates, these seats are all ripe for the picking. And at least one other seat is already almost guaranteed to flip after Obamacare passed the Senate: Ben Nelson in NE. That puts Republicans at 55 seats (if we hit 50 in 2010) come 2013.

In addition, Democrats could face several retirements/vacancies that provide excellent pick-up opportunities for Republicans: Robert Byrd in WV will be over 95 come November 2012; Herb Kohl in WI will be 77, Diane Feinstein in CA will be 79, and several others may simply decide that they’ve had enough of politics, especially if the mood is still anti-Democrat and it has become clear that Democrats will be in the minority come January 2013. We may see several Senators follow Byron Dorgan’s example and take an early retirement. Particular to this case would be Ben Nelson (NE), Bill Nelson (FL), Kent Conrad (ND), and Robert Casey (PA).

There are other States that could see retirements in which Republicans already have strong chances of beating Democratic incumbents even if the he decides to run again: Governor Jodi Rell could easily beat Joseph Liberman in a three-way contest with a real Democrat in CT and Governor Linda Lingle could challenge Senator Akaka in HI. Likewise, if the climate is still toxic, Governor Jim Douglas could challenge Senator Sanders in VT.

Lastly, Republicans won’t really have many seats to defend in 2012: Scott Brown in Massachusetts will face (another) uphill battle to win reelection and I personally have my doubts he can do it. More positively, John Ensign in NV is the second most endangered Republican incumbent, but his numbers are looking better than they were a year ago. We could have retirements in either AZ or ME that could make these seats vulnerable, but if not they should be safe.

So let us just imagine for a moment: Republicans start with 41 seats and win 9 more in 2010 (ND, NV, CO, AR, DE, PA, IL, NY, and either IN or CA) for a total of 50. We have fairly good chances at 9 more in 2012 (MT, VA, MO, OH, NE, WV, CT, FL, and HI) putting us at 59. We could easily pick up another few seats with the right candidates with the right combination of retirements in CA, WI, ND, or PA. And that’s not even mentioning shock-races like Massachusetts that could develop in New England or other States we haven’t considered vulnerable.

Looking even further down the road, Republicans are also well-positioned for 2014 as they lost quite a few seats in 2008 that never should have never been painted blue. VA, NC, MN, NH, and MO all could flip back to the Republicans while Democrats could also face tough battles in AK, CO, SD, AR, MN, and LA and retirements in WV, IA, MI, and NJ. Meanwhile, Republicans could face retirements in AL, GA, ID, KS, KY, MS, OK, and IN, but look well positioned to keep all of these seats at the moment.

Realistically, we could see the Republican make-up of the Senate increase to 47-50 in 2010, 55-60 in 2012, and 63+ in 2014.

With that many seats and a Republican in the White House, we could overturn Obamacare (if it passes) and reshape the Supreme Court for the next 50 years.

Of course that’s all pipe dreams at the moment. Republicans will have to play their cards right and govern shrewdly, or they could be treated worse than 2006 and 2008 come 2012 and beyond.

I wouldn’t be stupid enough to bring up the nonsense of a “Permanent Majority,” but Republicans are extremely well-positioned for the next few election cycles in the Senate.

For my update from early-January, click here.

I’ll do my regular full State-by-State analysis toward the end of January/beginning of February, but I just wanted to post quickly and say that I think Sen. Brown’s resounding victory in Massachusetts heavily affects the 2010 elections and beyond.

I continue to say that Republicans will probably keep all of the seats they are defending, including MO, OH, NH, KY, NC, and LA (NC and LA were never seriously on the table), and Tuesday’s results on confirm this.

Before Tuesday’s results, Republicans were favored to take seats away from Democrats in ND, NV, and CO, and stand reasonable chances in AR, DE, and PA. My last update saw me down-grade IL, NY, and CT.

Tuesday’s election proves that no Democratic seat is really safe, as no Republican seat was safe in 2006 or 2010. Of course Republicans must now only pick up 10 seats instead of 11 to re-take control of the Senate. This is now actually possible.

Sen. Brown gives Republicans hope in states like California, Indiana, and even Wisconsin and Washington and possibly as far out as Oregon or Maryland.

I’m not going to lie: beating an incumbant is always more difficult than winning in a special election as Sen. Brown has done. For that reason, I do see CA, IN, WI, and WA as only outside possibilities. But it gives us a glimmer of hope that wasn’t there last Monday.

Our path to reclaiming the Majority now includes: ND, NV, CO, AR, DE, PA, NY (Special), IN, and CA. The tenth seat may be claimed in WI, WA, or even OR. Alternatively, 3 November 2010 could see any number of Democrats applying to switch parties: Ben Nelson (NE), Bill Nelson (FL), Jon Tester (MT), Jim Webb (VA), Joseph Liberman (CT), and Robert Casey (PA) could all decide they have better chances of reelection in 2012 with an “R” after their name.

Regardless of whether Republicans actually reclaim the Majority or simply become a powerful Minority, 2012 offers to expand Republican gains made in 2010. I’ll explore these in more depth next time, but at a glance, MT, VA, MO, OH, FL, WV, NE, WI, HI (think Sen. Lingle), CA, VT, CT (think Sen. Jodi Rell), and PA area all possible pick-up opportunities for Republicans. And that’s without any surprise developments such as Scott Brown in solidly blue States! Realistically, Republicans will also have to fight tough re-election bids in MA and NV with possible retirements in AZ or ME making these seats vulnerable as well.

I know this is rediculous, but Republicans could go into 2013 with a strong majority in the House, the White House, and 60+ Senate seats. With that type of control, let us hope we’ve learned our lesson from 2006 and 2008 and can actually govern.

And while we no longer have anyone as liberal as Sen. Chaffee was in 2004, we will still have the Maine twins and Sen. Brown in MA with whom we’ll have to expect some liberal votes. Can such a caucus actually govern conservatively? I have my doubts, but only time will tell!

For now, let us enjoy our victory.

Lots of great stuff on this, a big news day for the Senate… – krempasky

Several major changes have taken places in the last month in the world of 2010 Senate elections. The biggest legislative event probably significantly helps Republican chances of gaining seats in 2010: Obamacare passed the Senate along party lines.

Unfortunately, most of the other developments have not been as positive for Republican hopes. Last month, I discussed how the outside chance of Republicans retaking the Senate was, for the first time, alive even if it was still extremely remote. This month, the chances of a Republican Senate in 2011 are even remoter. But they aren’t quite dead yet.

Here is my updated analysis for the 2010 Senate races. I’ve generally ranked them in order of most likely to flip to least.

Read More →

A lot has changed in the last month in the Senate races for next year! The current healthcare debate has brought about more changes than most saw coming in just a short amount of time. A possibility that no one would have dreamed of just one year ago, that the Republicans could retake the Senate, is now becoming real. It’s still an uphill climb, and I personally don’t see it happening, but the very fact that there is now a clear path to a Republican Majority should make Democrats uneasy. The Republicans need 11 new votes to change the balance of power in 2011.

Here is my updated analysis for the 2010 Senate races. I’ve generally ranked them in order of most likely to flip to least.

Democrat Seats:

Nevada – Harry Reid

For the third time, I rank Nevada as Republicans’ best pick-up opportunity, ironic since Harry Reid is majority leader. There was a time when that automatically guaranteed electoral success. Not true now. A mid-October Research 2000 poll has both Republican challengers beating Reid outside of the margin of error. Danny Tarkanian leads Reid 46-41 while Sue Lowden leads 47-42. The latest Republican primary poll (a MaisonDixon/LVJR poll from early-October) shows Lowden now slightly leading Tarkanian 23-21.

Still, Reid is the most powerful Democrat in the Senate, and his war chest is extensive. This isn’t by any means a shoo-in, and other races will probably eclipse it later on. But for now, I rate it as the best chance for a flip.

Connecticut – Chris Dodd

Linda McMahon, CEO of World Wrestling Entertainment, announced she would challenge former Representative Rob Simmons for the Republican nod to challenge Sen. Chris Dodd. As of an early-November Quinnipiac poll, Simmons leads her 28-17.

The same Quinnipiac poll found Simmons leading Dodd 49-38, well outside of the margin of error. McMahon led 43-41.

There are two problems I see with this race: 1) A crowded primary. While the race seems to be coming down to Simmons and McMahon, Ambassador Tom Foley, Peter Schiff, and Sam Caligiuri could be spoilers. 2) Connecticut is a solid blue state. Even though polls are more favorable at the moment, I still rate Connecticut as a less-likely pick-up than Nevada because Nevada is generally a red to purple state.

Still, Connecticut is proving to be an interesting state to watch. More on Sen. Lieberman later.

UPDATE: Word has it today that both St. Sen. Sam Caligiuri and former Ambassador Tom Foley have decided to get out of this race to pursue a house race and the governor’s race, respectively. This leaves McMahon, Simmons, and Schiff.

Colorado – Michael Bennet (Appointed)

Oddly, in what could end up being our best pick-up opportunity, little polling has been done. Since former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton announced her entrance into the Republican primary, there has only been one primary poll, aTarrance Group poll from mid-September. Still, it seemed to confirm that Norton has become the instant front-runner for the nod, especially since Ryan Frazier decided to switch to a house race. She leads her closest rival, Ken Buck, by 45-15.

Sen. Bennet isn’t yet guaranteed his nomination, though he does lead his challenger, former Colorado State House Speaker Andrew Romanoff by a healthy 41-27 in that same poll.

Fortunately for Republicans, Norton is beating both Democrat possibilities in a mid-September Rasmussen poll. She leads Bennet 45-36 and Romanoff 42-34.

Colorado is a truly purple state, but I’m anxious to see Norton top 50% in a poll before I rank it any higher than our third best pick-up possibility.

Arkansas – Blanche Lincoln

Sen. Blanche Lincoln is on the brink of being endangered. However, polling is sparse and inconsistent. A late-September Rasmussen poll looked good for Republicans. St. Sen. Gilbert Baker led Lincoln 47-39, Curtis Coleman led her 43-41, St. Senate Minority Leader Kim Hendren led 44-41, and Tom Cox led 43-41. However, the latest Zogby poll has Lincoln leading Baker 41-39 and Hendren 45-29.

Arkansas is a tough nut to crack for Republicans. It’s a fairly conservative state, but Democrats hold a surprising edge in voter registration, and they control both senate seats and 3 of the 4 House seats as well as both state chambers and the Governor’s mansion.

Sen. Lincoln’s recent health care stance won’t be popular in Arkansas. If she holds to it, I see this race becoming our number one pick-up opportunity. However, at this point it could go either way.

Delaware – Ted Kauffman (Retiring)

Rep. Michael Castle decided to run and instantly brought this race into the competitive category. The presumed Democrat candidate, Vice-President Joe Biden’s son Beau, hasn’t yet announced, though he has said he is considering the race.

This is going to be an interesting race to watch. As of now, the latest Susquehanna poll from mid-November has Biden leading Castle 45-40. But Castle is an experienced politician and campaigner whereas Biden is relatively new to the political world. Castle has also never lost a race, so the early advantage is still his.

This race comes down to, I think, presidential popularity. Obama and V.P. Biden will both be here to do everything they can to assure Biden, Jr’s victory.

This is the only race to move down on my list of competitive Democrat seats since my last analysis.

North Dakota – Byron Dorgan

The latest Zogby poll from mid-November finds Republican Governor John Hoeven cleaning Democrat incumbent Byron Dorgan’s clock by a whopping 55-36. Health care certainly has a lot to do with that in conservative N. Dakota, but the state is an anomaly: all three congressional seats are held by fairly liberal Democrats. Still, Republicans have a better than excellent chance at picking up this seat…

…if Hoeven runs. That’s right, the Governor hasn’t announced yet whether he’s running, and he appears to be in no hurry to do so. If he does, this race shoots up to Republican’s top pick-up opportunity. If he doesn’t, it remains comfortably with the Democrats.

New York – Kirsten Gillibrand (Apointed)

The latest Marist poll from mid-November gives Republicans a lot of hope in deep-blue New York. Appointed Sen. Gillibrand falls way behind Republican Rudy Giuliani 54-40. This could prove to be one of the best Republican pick-up opportunities if Giuliani decides to give it a go. The Marist poll also showed Republican George Pataki leading Gillibrand 47-45, so even if Giuliani decides against a race, we could still have a chance at taking Hillary’s old seat.

The New York Daily News seems to think that Giuliani will run, but he is remaining mum.

Pennsylvania – Arlen Specter (Party-Switcher)

A mid-October Rasmussen poll must have turncoat Specter sweating. It shows Rep. Joe Sestak within striking distance for the Democrat nod, while Specter still leads 46-42. Specter held a 13 point lead in August and a 19 point lead in July. He should be getting nervous. On the Republican side, former Rep. Pat Toomy has the nod sewn up.

That same October Rasmussen poll had some more bad news for Specter: Toomy leads him 45-40. All other polls have the race within a 3% margin of error. Oddly, Sestak leads Toomy 38-37.

I’d say it’s a pretty good bet that Sen. Arlen Specter will be stripped of his “Senator” title come January 2011. However, if he’ll be replaced with a Sen. Sestak or a Sen. Toomy is still up in the air. Republicans can only hope Specter holds on until after the May 18 primary.

Illinois – Roland Burris (Retiring)

Alexi Giannoulias still appears to be the front runner in the Democrat primary, but no new polls means that there could be an undetected change. On the other side of the aisle, an early-October Megallan poll has Rep. Mark Kirk claiming a whopping 61% of the primary vote. No other candidate breaks 5%, so he is the assumed Republican candidate.

The latest mid-October Rasmussen report shows Giannoulias and Kirk tied at 41. Polling has been back-and-forth since last January, so it’s anyone’s guess where this race could eventually head. However, I think Kirk has to break 50% to have a real chance at beating Chicago corruption and actually pull this race out. For now, this race is possibly competitive but is still a wait-and-see.

California – Barbara Boxer

Carly Fiorina and Chuck DeVore are locked in a tight primary fight to see who will challenge Sen. Boxer. According to a mid-November Rasmussen poll, it doesn’t seem to matter who gets the eventual nod since Boxer leads Fiorina 46-37 and DeVore 46-36.

California isn’t completely gone, but I don’t think we should hold out for a take-over unless election night is a huge red wave.

Hawaii – Daniel Inouye

No new developments in Hawaii. Gov. Lingle has yet to announce her intentions.

Indiana – Evan Bayh

While some grassroots activists hope to make this race competitive, and my heart is with them, there just isn’t any polling data to support that yet. However, Bayh is a popular incumbent. Until we see some polling numbers, I consider this race as safely Democrat with the slim possibility of becoming competitive.

Wisconsin – Russ Feingold

A late-September WPRI poll shows former governor Tommy Thompson polling slightly ahead of Sen. Feingold at 43-39. However, Thompson has announced he is considering a run for the Governor’s seat, so this poll is not likely to result in a take-over opportunity.

Other:

Sens. Patty Murray (WA), Ron Wyden (OR), Barbara Mikulski (MD), Martha Coakley (?) (MA), Pat Leahy (VT), and Chuck Schumer (NY) all seem safe, but these seats might become competitive in the future.

Republican Seats:

Missouri – Kit Bond (Retiring)

Missouri is once again the Republicans’ least secure seat. A mid-November PPP poll has Democrat Sec. of State Robin Carnahan leading Republican Rep. Roy Blunt 43-42. However, that’s well within the margin of error and a lot could happen in purple Missouri. Republicans usually do better than predicted in Missouri, so I think this race will eventually come home for the Republicans, especially if the night is particularly good for us.

Ohio – George Voinovich (Retiring)

An early-November Quinniapiac has some good news for Rep. Rob Portman: He leads Sec. of State Jennifer Brunner 38-34 and Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher 39-36. The Democrats are locked in a tight primary race. Still, this race is competitive and could still go either way, especially once the Democrat primary is over.

New Hampshire – Judd Gregg (Retiring)

An early-October Granite State poll found Attorney General Kelly Ayotte solidifying her lead over Democrat Rep. Paul Hodes 40-33. This race isn’t out of the woods yet, but I’m breathing a little easier about it. If Ayotte breaks 50%, it’s over.

Kentucky – Jim Bunning (Retiring)

A surprise WHAS-TV/Survey USA poll from early-November showed Rand Paul leading Sec. of State Trey Grayson 35-32 in the Republican primary. Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo leads A.G. Jack Conway in the Democrat primary. Paul and Mongiardo are tied at 43% while Grayson would handily defeat him 48-38. Conway leads Paul 44-39 and trails Grayson 43-39.

This is quite a shock since last month when Republicans had seemingly saved this race from endangerment, but with Rand Paul’s surge, this could prove to make it more competitive for Democrats. It is the only Republican race to move up in competitiveness.

North Carolina – Richard Burr

A PPP poll found Sen. Burr edging a generic Democrat 44-40. He also edges all declared Democrat candidates: Kenneth Lewis 45-32, Sec. of St. Elaine Marshall 45-34, and Kevin Foy 44-32.

The latest Rasmussen poll from mid-September shows incumbent Burr leading all Democratic challengers. He leads Lewis 48-32, Marshall 48-38, and Etheridge 48-34.

I would feel still like Burr to poll above 50%, but I feel confident than the Republicans should have no problem defending this seat unless we see a surprise wave year for the Democrats.

Louisiana – David Vitter

While we still have no new polls for the Republican primary, Republican candidates handily beat Rep. Charlie Melancon (D) in the latest Rasmussen poll. Incumbent Sen. Vitter leads him 46-36 while Sec. of St. Jay Dardenne leads 56-23.

Florida – George LeMieux (Retiring)

Gov. Charlie Crist still leads former Speaker of the St. House Marco Rubio for the Republican primary, though his lead is quickly evaporating. A Research 2000 poll shows Democratic front-runner Rep. Kendrick Meek beating Marco Rubio 38-30 while getting his clock cleaned by Crist 50-33. This race could jump up in competitiveness if Rubio continues to gain ground on Crist.

Kansas – Sam Brownback (Retiring)

A early-October Survey USA poll found Rep. Jerry Moran topping Rep. Todd Tiahart for the Republican nomination 43-27. Both are solid conservatives, and either should hold the seats for the Republicans.

Arizona – John McCain

A mid-November Rasmussen poll shows former Rep. J.D. Hayworth challenging McCain for the Republican nod. McCain still leads 45-43, but a slim chance for an upset here could happen. Hayworth hasn’t announced yet, but if he does he may get a few more points. No polling has been done on how Hayworth v. the Democrats. McCain is still the strong favored one both for the nomination and the general.

Utah – Robert Bennett

Sen. Robert Bennett is facing several more conservative challengers in the Republican primary. The candidate will be chosen at the generally conservative Convention, so Bennett could be in trouble. No polling has been done, but this could become competitive since Sen. Bennett seems determined to be considered a ‘moderate’ but represents the deepest of red states. Whoever gets the Republican nod will almost assuredly keep the seat red.

Other:

Sens. Lisa Murkowski (AK), John Thune (SD), Tom Coburn (OK), Jim DeMint (SC), Johnny Isakson (GA), Richard Shelby (AL), Chuck Grassley (IA), and Mike Crappo (ID) all seem safe, but one or two of these seats might become competitive in the future.

Synopsis:

Republicans are poised to make significant gains in the Senate next year. For the first time, there is actually a path to retaking the majority. If Republicans can hold their own in MO, NH, OH, KY, and FL (most of these races won’t be competitive in 6 months anyway) and sweep competitive races in NV, CT, CO, AR, DE, PA, and IL, we’re already at 47 seats. Convincing Hoeven and Giuliani to run could add ND and NY giving us 49. Our 50^th could come from IN, CA, or WI if the cards were dealt just right.

However, recent events in the health care debate suggest the Sen. Lieberman (I-CT) could be kicked out of the Democrat caucus for his refusal to support the Public Option. If he is stripped of his committee chairmanships, chances are he could vote for a Republican Majority Leader or, if not, at least refuse to vote for a Democrat Majority Leader.

Alternatively, Sen. Ben Nelson from Nebraska could be a possible party switch if he is punished for his pro-life stance on the health care bill.

The magic 51 could come with either Nelson or Lieberman or a double pick-up in the combination of IN, CA, and WI.

It’s still a long shot, to be sure. But even the faintest breath of a hope is more than we had 12 months ago.

Realistically, I see all of the Republican seats eventually coming home (with MO being the most doubtful). This should become evident before summer. I think we stand a better than 50% chance of taking NV, CT, and CO and, with the right candidates, NY and ND. Currently we have around a 50% of taking AR, DE, PA, and IL.

Realistically speaking, I don’t put much stock in IN, CA, or WI, though that could change.

Conclusion: Republicans stand an excellent chance of gaining 3-5 seats, a good chance of taking 4-7, and a fair chance of taking 6-7+, and a slim chance of taking 9+.

*Edited to fix grammar errors and include note on Sen. Ben Nelson.

This is a continuation of my previous diary regarding what I believe the realistic status of various races is. Some of these races that I consider competitive may become less-competitive while some that I see as uncompetitive may become competitive. A lot can happen in 13 months.

Please feel free to give feedback, updates, and notes in the comments section. This proved quite helpful for some corrections I needed to make last time.

Democratic Seats:

Nevada – Harry Reid

Things seem to have gotten slightly darker for poor Sen. Reid since early September. A new Rasmussen poll, taken on September 14, shows him now losing to Republicans Danny Tarkanian by 7 points (50-43) and Sue Lowden by 10 points (50-40). There have been no new Republican primary polls, but Tarkanian was leading Lowden in an old poll from mid-August by 19 points.

This is still Republican’s best opportunity for a pick-up. It seems, at this point, all but guaranteed to flip.

Connecticut – Chris Dodd

New polls from Rasmussen and Quinnipiac both confirm that Dodd is still in trouble. Rasmussen has Republican Rob Simmons leading Dodd 49-39 while Quinnipiac shows his lead at a more modest 44-39. Quinnipiac also shows Simmons leading the Republican Primary field with 43% percent, while no other challenger tops 5%.

This is still an excellent opportunity for a pick-up, but I’m hesitant, since Connecticut is such a dark blue state, to call it as good as Nevada.

Colorado – Michael Bennet (Appointed)

The Republican field is more crowded now than it was last month with the entrance of Lt. Gov. Jane Norton. Shortly after her entrance, Rasmussen Reports released a poll showing Norton leading Sen. Bennet 45-36. An earlier Rasmussen poll had Ryan Frazier also leading Bennet by 1 point (40-39). The same poll showed Ken Buck trailing Bennet 43-37. There has been no primary poll conducted since Norton announced her entrance.

Also since last month, House Speaker Andrew Romanoff has declared a primary challenge to Miachael Bennet. There are no primary polls, but Norton leads Romanoff 42-34 in Rasmussen’s poll from mid-September.

This race is being bumped up as I now consider it a better pick-up chance than Arkansas.

Arkansas – Blanche Lincoln

Sen. Blanche Lincoln is a tad better positioned now than she was a month ago.

A recent Research 2000 poll from mid-September shows her now leading all challengers: Gilbert Baker (44-37), Curtis Coleman (45-37), Kim Hendren (47-28), and Tom Cox (46-29). For comparison, a late-August Public Policy poll had her polling under both Baker and Coleman while Cotton trailed by only 1 point.

Arkansas is still winnable, but it seems less so than last month. I’ve knocked this down on my list as I see several others as more winnable now.

Delaware – Ted Kauffman (Retiring)

No new polls have been released yet, and Delaware still provides an seemingly good chance at a pick-up if Rep. Michael Castle runs. He hasn’t announced yet, but neither has Beau Biden. Castle has said that there is a better chance of him running for this Senate seat than another term in the House. However, he has also hinted that he may retire from politics.

If Castle runs, rate this as an almost-assured pick-up. If he chooses not to run, it goes down to the bottom of the list.

North Dakota – Byron Dorgan

No new developments in North Dakota, which actually may prove to be a development in itself. It is clear that the GOP has 0-chance of taking this seat if Gov. John Hoeven decides not to run. An ancient Public Opinion Strategies poll has Hoeven leading Dorgan 53-36, but the longest-serving governor won’t announce his intentions.

This is possibly our second-biggest pick-up opportunity (after Nevada) if Hoeven decides to run. If he passes, then it stays blue.

New York – Kirsten Gillibrand (Apointed)

Sen. Gillibrand still appears vulnerable, but both Peter King and Rudy Giuliani have declined to run. The only remaining Republican who could challenge the interim Senator is former governor George Pataki. A late-August Siena poll has Pataki leading 42-39.

If Pataki runs, this race could prove competitive. If he declines, Democrats easily retain this seat even in a wave year.

Illinois – Roland Burris (Retiring)

There is no new polling available. My rating is the same as last month:

In a mid-August Rasmussen poll, Kirk etched out a lead of 41-38 over Giannoulias.

In a wave year, we might stand a good chance of picking up this seat if we can overcome voter-fraud.

Pennsylvania – Arlen Specter (Party-Switcher)

No new information is available since last month when Sen. Arlen Specter led Rep. Joe Sestak in the Democratic primary race by 15 points, and presumptive Republican nominee Pat Toomey by 5 points in the general election.

California – Barbara Boxer

The latest Rasmussen poll from mid-September shows Sen. Barbara Boxer leading Carly Fiorina 49-29 and Chuck DeVore 46-37. There are no new primary polls.

California is slipping away as an authentic possibility for a pick-up.

Hawaii – Daniel Inouye

No new developments in Hawaii. Gov. Lingle has yet to announce her intentions.

Sen. Murray will not win with as big of a margin as she did in 2004, but she will cruise to reelection unless Dino Rossi runs. That is highly unlikely and so is flipping this seat red.

Indiana – Evan Bayh

Former Schererville Representative Dan Dumezich may decide to jump in soon. However, as of yet there is no polling data to consider this race competitive.

Other:

Sens. Patty Murray (WA), Ron Wyden (OR), Russ Feingold (WI), Barbara Mikulski (MD), (Pat Leahy (VT), and Chuck Schumer (NY) all seem safe but these seats might become competitive if future developments pan out just right.

Republican Seats:

Missouri – Kit Bond (Retiring)

The latest Rasmussen poll from mid-September shows Republican Rep. Roy Blunt Democrat Sec. of State Robin Carnahan tied at 46%. This is good news for Blunt who trailed by 9 points last month.

This is still the Democrats best chance of a pick-up, but Republicans have a strong history of making surprising comebacks in Missouri, and this race may not even be on the table next year.

Ohio – George Voinovich (Retiring)

The latest Rasmussen from late-September report shows former Rep. Rob Portman leading both Democratic challengers. He leads Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher 41-40 and Sec. of State Jennifer Brunner 40-38. This is better than an mid-September poll by Quinniapiac which showed Portman trailing Brunner 39-34 and Fisher 32-31. The Rasmussen poll may be an outlier.

The Democrats have a real chance to take this seat even in a minor Republican wave.

New Hampshire – Judd Gregg (Retiring)

Attorney General Kelly Ayotte seems to be solidifying support as a mid-September Rasmussen poll finds her leading Democrat Paul Hodes 46-38.

North Carolina – Richard Burr

The latest Rasmussen poll from mid-September shows incumbent Sen. Richard Burr leading all Democratic challengers. He leads Kenneth Lewis 48-32, Elaine Marshall 48-38, and Bob Etheridge 48-34.

I would feel more comfortable if Burr could poll above 50%, but I feel confident than the Republicans should have no problem defending this seat unless we see a surprise wave year for the Democrats.

Louisiana – David Vitter

No new polling available, but Sen. Vitter looks well positioned against Rep. Charlie Melancon (D). Vitter could be facing an interesting primary, but no polling has been done.

Kentucky – Jim Bunning (Retiring)

No serious movements have been made and no new polls released since last month. I still place Sec. of State Trey Grayson as the favorite to beat out both Rand Paul in the Republican primary and Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo in the general.

Florida – George LeMieux (Retiring)

No new polls have been released, and Gov. Charlie Crist still leads former Speaker of the St. House Marco Rubio for the Republican primary. Whoever wins this race will almost assuredly win the general election.

Kansas – Sam Brownback (Retiring)

No new polls means that Republican Reps. Todd Tiahrt and Jerry Moran are still statistically tied for the nomination. The winner will go on to win the general.

Arizona – John McCain

A mid-September Public Policy shows Sen. McCain crushing Chris Simcox for the Republican nomination. He will almost certainly win both that and the general.

Utah – Robert Bennett

Sen. Robert Bennett is facing several more conservative challengers in the Republican primary. No polling has been done, but this could become competitive since Sen. Bennett seems determined to be considered a ‘moderate’ but represents the deepest of red states.

Other:

Sens. Lisa Murkowski (AK), John Thune (ND), Tom Coburn (OK), Jim DeMint (SC), Johnny Isakson (GA), Richard Shelby (AL), Chuck Grassley (IA), and Mike Crappo (ID) all seem safe but these seats might become competitive if future developments pan out just right.

Synopsis:

Republicans still stand to make some gains in Democratic-held Senate seats in 2010, with Nevada, Connecticut, and Colorado all already favoring Republicans. We also stand good chances in Delaware, North Dakota and New York (Gillibrand)with the right recruits. Illinois, Pennsylvania, and Arkansas are all doable but will prove to be more up-hill fights. California is a long shot. Hawaii may become competitive but is probably safe Democratic, as is Washington, Wisconsin, Indiana, Oregon, Maryland, Vermont and New York (Schumer). .

Meanwhile, Republicans playing defense look better than they did even a month ago. Missouri and Ohio are the most possible to switch parties, but recent polling is looking better for Republicans in these states. New Hampshire also looks to be solidifying for the Republicans. North Carolina, Louisiana, and Kentucky might become competitive later, but for now are safe, and Republican seats are safe in Florida, Kansas, Arizona, Alaska, South Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Utah, Iowa, and Idaho.

The basic change stats are the same as last month: In a massive Republican wave year, we could gain up to 9 seats (NV, CT, CO, DE, ND, NY, IL, PA, and AR), while protecting all our endangered seats (MO, OH, NC, KT, and LA).

Realistically at this point, I see Republicans gaining between 4 and 6 seats with the slimming prospect of losing 1 or 2 for a net of between 2 and 6.

We should do no worse than gaining 1 seat.

This is my first diary on RedState, though I’ve been around for quite some time. I’m usually a stalker, so please bear with me.

Following is what I believe to be a preliminary outline for the 2010 Senate Elections. I have tried to be fairly accurate in basing what I have written on reality instead of what I would like to happen. Many thing can happen between now and November 2010, so these rankings may change drastically.

Democratic Seats:

Nevada – Harry Reid

Who would have thought six years ago, when Sen. Harry Reid won reelection with 61% of the vote, that his seat would be the #1 pickup opportunity for Republicans in 2010? But just this week the Cook Political Report changed this race from Likely Democrat to Toss Up. This is largely because Reid has such huge negatives with one recent poll (Research 2000) finding his approval rating to be as low as 36%. In a late-August poll by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc., Reid trailed two Republican challengers, Danny Tarkanian and Sue Lowden, by at least 5 points. Tarkanian led Reid by 11 points whereas Lowden led by 5. Tarkanian led Lowden in the primary race 33-14 with 47% undecided and 6% going to other candidates. The early-September Research 2000 poll showed slightly better numbers for Reid: Tarkanian only led by 45-40 while Lowden led 44-41

Chances are excellent that Republicans should be able to “Daschle” Reid even in a non-wave year. With 2010 shaping up to be a medium to large wave, I rate this as an almost guaranteed flip barring unforeseen complications.

Connecticut – Chris Dodd

Is it possible for Republicans to pick up a seat in ever-increasingly-blue New England? Connecticut provides the best chance this year, with severely tainted Sen. Dodd. Dodd has relatively low approval ratings (42% according to a late-July Quinnipiac poll). There hasn’t been much polling in Connecticut since July when former Rep. Rob Simmons, the front runner in the Republican primary (Simmons was at 42% with no other candidate breaking 5%), led Dodd 48-39. In fact, Simmons has led Dodd in every major poll except one since early March.

This would prove to be a shock pick-up, but it seems plausible. If 2010 turns into a wave year, Connecticut could turn red.

Arkansas – Blanche Lincoln

Sen. Blanche Lincoln could be one of many casualties of over-reaching Democratic control of the Legislative and Executive branches. A late August Public Policy poll found her approval at just 36%. She polls within the margin of error with several unknown Republicans: St. Sen. Gilbert Baker led 42-40, Curtis Coleman led 41-40, and Tom Cotton trailed by 40-39. There have been no primary polls conducted.

Sen. Lincoln will be a tough nut to crack. She won reelection back in 2004 with 56% of the vote. But a lot has changed. Specifically, Democrats have taken control of Congress and are doing many things that go against the grain in the South, even Arkansas.

Arkansas stands a good chance of turning turned red.

Delaware – Ted Kauffman (Retiring)

Delaware provides an interesting pick-up opportunity in a solidly-blue state, though with the sacrifice of the State’s sole House seat. This is the seat vacated by Joe Biden, and Ted Kaufman was appointed with the understanding that he would not seek reelection in deference to Vice-President Biden’s son Beau. Biden, Jr. has yet to announce, but there is little doubt that he will. However, Delaware seems to be a less enthusiastic about dynasty seats than Massachusetts, and Michael Castle, who has also not announced any intention of running, is beating him handily in all polls: a late-April poll by Susquehanna Polling and Research has Castle leading Biden 55-34. This followed an early-March Public Policy poll showing Castle leading 44-36. Christine O’Donnell has announced her intention to run for the Republican nomination but will most likely be destroyed by Biden. Castle’s House seat will almost certainly go Democratic if he does not seek reelection.

Castle has announced that there is a better chance of him running for this Senate seat than another term in the House. However, he has also hinted that he may retire from politics.

If Castle runs, rate this as an almost-assured pick-up. If he chooses not to run, it goes down to the bottom of the list.

Colorado – Michael Bennet (Appointed)

The Republican field seems to be a bit crowded, with no clear favorites. The only Republican leading Bennet in the polls is former Gov. Bill Owens by 44-41, but he has not announced whether he will run. Bennet leads all other Republicans: Ryan Frazier by 5 points, Ken Buck by 4, John Suthers by 6, Scott McInnis by 6, Josh Penry by 7, and Tom Tancredo by 9.

The GOP has a fair chance of picking up this seat in purple Colorado, but we have to play our cards right. In a wave year, and with the right candidate, this could be a firm flip.

EDIT: Only Frazier, Buck, and Cleve Tidwell (possibly Norton and Wiens) are running for the Republicans. Bennet is facing a primary against Romanoff. A new Rasmussen poll tonight shows Frazier leading Bennet by 1 point.

North Dakota – Byron Dorgan

It must be made perfectly clear that the GOP has 0-chance of taking this seat if Gov. John Hoeven decides not to run. Dorgan won reelection in 2004 with 64% of the vote, and there are simply no other Republicans who could touch him. In a late-July Public Opinion Strategies poll, Hoeven leads Dorgan 53-36, almost guaranteeing the flip. However, the big question is: Will he run? He does not appear to be in any hurry to announce.

This is possibly our second-biggest pick-up opportunity (after Nevada) if Hoeven decides to run. If he passes, then it stays blue.

New York – Kirsten Gillibrand (Apointed)

After some work, Sen. Gillibrand has cleared the Democratic primary field and will almost assuredly win the party’s nomination. Sparse polling has been done on this race, but both Rudy Giuliani and former-governor George Pataki could prove to make reelection tough for Gillibrand. No polling has been done on Giuliani since January when he trailed Gillibrand by 2 points. But Pataki has led or tied Gillibrand in all but one poll since March. The latest, a Siena poll conducted in late August, has Pataki leading 42-39.

If Pataki or Giuliani run, this race could prove competitive. If they both decline, Democrats easily retain this seat even in a wave year.

Illinois – Roland Burris (Retiring)

Burris’s decision not to run for reelection has drastically improved Democrats’ chances of retaining this seat. In a late-April Public Policy poll, Illinois Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias leads all other Democratic challengers by more than 12 points. Rep. Mark Kirk led Peter Roskam in a mid-February Zogby poll by 5 points for the GOP nod.

In a mid-August Rasmussen poll, Kirk etched out a lead of 41-38 over Giannoulias.

In a wave year, we might stand a good chance of picking up this seat if we can overcome voter-fraud.

Pennsylvania – Arlen Specter (Party-Switcher)

Sen. Arlen Specter changed parties in early 2009 with the promise that he would avoid a primary challenge. Unfortunately for him, he’s getting one anyway. Rep. Joe Sestak is slowly gaining on Specter in the polls. He has narrowed Specter’s lead from 38 in early-May to just 15 by mid-August. The liberal wing of the Democratic Party is clearly trying “Lamont” Specter as they did Lieberman in 2006, but it is unclear if Specter would respond the same way Lieberman did by running as an Independent should he lose the Democratic nomination.

Specter still leads presumptive Republican nominee Pat Toomey. A mid-August Research 2000 poll found Specter leading 45-40 while an outlier Rasmussen poll from the same time found Toomey leading 48-36. The only thing we know for sure is that Specter’s lead is apparently narrowing.

Toomey leads Sestak 43-35 in the Rasmussen poll while trailing in the Research 2000 poll 42-41.

The best bet for Republicans here is for Sestak to beat Specter in the primary and Specter to run as an Independent. This would almost assure a Republican victory. However, in a wave year, we stand a minimally good chance of picking up this seat.

EDIT: PA has a Sore Loser law which would prevent Specter from running as an Independent if he loses his primary bid.

California – Barbara Boxer

There has been minimal polling on this race. Old polls show HP CEO Carly Fiorina leading St. Assemblyman Chuck DeVore for the Republican nomination, but it is possible that these numbers may have reversed. A mid-July Rasmussen poll showed Fiorina within striking distance of Sen. Barbara Boxer (45-41), but a mid-August Research 2000 poll showed that Boxer has reclaimed the a strong lead of 52-31. Boxer leads DeVore 53-29.

This is an extremely small chance that the GOP could pull this out, but the chances are getting smaller and smaller since DeVore and Fiorina seem intent on a brutal primary.

Hawaii – Daniel Inouye

Sen. Inouye won reelection in 2004 with 76% of the vote. The only Republican who could give Sen. Inouye a run for his money would be Gov. Linda Lingle, but even she trails him 52-40 in a mid-June Research 2000 poll. Something unexpected may happen, but barring that Inouye will win in a landslide, which could be decreased to only a few points if Gov. Lingle runs.

Washington – Patty Murray

Sen. Murray will not win with as big of a margin as she did in 2004, but she will cruise to reelection unless Dino Rossi runs. That is highly unlikely and so is flipping this seat red.

Wisconsin – Russ Feingold

Sen. Feingold seems to be facing no serious challenges this year.

Indiana – Evan Bayh

Sen. Bayh seems to be facing no serious challenges this year.

Oregon – Ron Wyden

Sen. Wyden seems to be facing no serious challenges this year.

Maryland – Barbara Mikulski

The only possible way to make this seat competitive would be for former Gov. Bob Elrich or RNC Chairman Michael Steele to run. Neither seem interested. This seat is safely Democratic for now.

Vermont – Pat Leahy

The only possibility of making this seat competitive is if Gov. Jim Douglas decides to run. A mid-January Research 2000 poll had Sen. Leahy leading Douglas 58-36, so the chances are unlikely.

New York – Chuck Schumer

Sen. Schumer seems to be facing no serious challenges this year.

Republican Seats:

Missouri – Kit Bond (Retiring)

Rep. Roy Blunt seems to have the Republican nomination all but sewn up while Sec. of State Robin Carnahan is the only announced or rumored Democratic candidate. This is currently rated as the best Democratic pick-up opportunity because of Sec. Carnahan’s recent electoral success (she garnered more votes in 2008 than any other candidate in the history of Missouri). The latest poll, a Democracy Corps poll from late April, shows Carnahan leading Blunt 53-44.

This is the Democrats best chance of a pick-up, but Republicans can make interesting comebacks in Missouri. With a medium to major Republican wave, this seat could stay Republican.

Ohio – George Voinovich (Retiring)

Former Rep. Rob Portman appears to have a cinch on the Republican nomination while Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher and Sec. of State Jennifer Brunner are locked in a close race for the Democratic nod. Unfortunately for us, the latest Research 2000 poll, taken in early-July, shows Brunner leading Portman 40-36 while Fisher leads Portman 42-35. This shows a increase of 4 and 2 points for Portman against Brunner and Fisher respectively since a Public Policy poll in mid-June.

The Democrats have a real chance to take this seat even in a minor Republican wave. However, the Republicans also have a good chance of retaining the seat if the Ohio GOP gets its act together. Here’s hoping we pull this one out.

New Hampshire – Judd Gregg (Retiring)

When Judd Gregg announced his retirement, it switched this seat to an almost automatic Democratic pick-up for Rep. Paul Hodes. However, when Attorney General Kelly Ayotte announced her candidacy in early July, it brought back hope to the GOP. Ayotte led Hodes 39-38 in a mid-July Research 2000 poll. However, an older Granite State Poll from late June had her leading 39-35.

At this point, this race could easily go either way. Unless we see a Democratic wave, I expect to see this seat stay Republican. However, if there isn’t a Republican wave, it could possibly be lost.

North Carolina – Richard Burr

Democrats would like to turn this seat competitive because of a mid-June Public Policy poll showing Sen. Burr losing to a generic Democrat by 3 points. However, in an early-August Public Policy poll, Burr leads Democratic Sec. of State Elaine Marshall 43-31, former St. Sen. Cal Cunningham 43-28, and Kenneth Lewis 43-27. In a wave year for the Democrats, this seat might be in play. However, it seems likely that Burr will eventually solidify support.

Louisiana – David Vitter

There is a lot of speculation about who will be the eventual nominees for both parties in 2010. Sen. Vitter cannot count on a free pass since he was involved in a prostitution scandal two years ago. Vitter led the Republican primary back in a Research 2000 poll from early-March, but there are several Republican contenders who could beat Vitter in a primary. Fortunately they all poll as well or better than he does against any Democratic challengers.

Currently, Rep. Charlie Melancon looks likely to get the eventual nod from the Democratic party. In a mid-July Public Policy poll, Vitter led Melancon 44-32.

Unless the Democrats have a serious wave, this seat does not seem to be in serious play for the Democrats. It could materialize, but at this point it leans heavily toward the Republicans.

Kentucky – Jim Bunning (Retiring)

In late July, Sen. Bunning announced that he would not seek reelection. This dramatically increased Republicans’ chances of keeping this seat red. A late-August Research 2000 poll showed Sec. of State Trey Grayson currently leading Rand Paul (son of Ron Paul) 40-25. Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo currently leads Attorney General Jack Conway by 37-30 for the Democratic nod.

Grayson leads Mongiardo by 4 points and Conway by 6. Paul trails Mongiardo by 5 and Conway by 4.

Unless libertarian Republicans pull a surprise primary upset and hand the nomination to Rand Paul, this seat easily stays Republican.

Florida – George LeMieux (Retiring)

This seat will likely stay Republican unless the primary gets particularly nasty or the Democrats see a wave year. The real question is: Which Republican will win it? In a mid-August Rasmussen poll, Gov. Charlie Crist led former Speaker of the St. House Marco Rubio 53-31. Rubio is gaining points against Crist, but it is unclear if he will gain enough in time. Rep. Kendrick Meek currently leads in the Democratic primary polls.

According to various polls, Crist crushes all Democratic challengers by no less than 19 points while a mid-August Rasmussen poll shows Rubio leading Meek 43-30.

Kansas – Sam Brownback (Retiring)

Republican Reps. Todd Tiahrt and Jerry Moran are statistically tied for the nomination. The only Democrat who could make this race competitive is former Gov. Kathleen Sebelius. However, she is likely not as popular as she once was in Kansas since accepting a position in President Obama’s cabinet. Whoever wins the Republican primary should go on to win this Senate seat.

Arizona – John McCain

The only Democrat who could make this race competitive is former Gov. Janet Napolitano. However, she is likely not as popular as she once was in Arizona since accepting a position in President Obama’s cabinet. Sen. McCain should cruise to reelection.

Alaska – Lisa Murkowski

Sen. Murkowski seems cruising to reelection against whoever the eventual Democratic nominee is.

South Dakota – John Thune

Sen. Thune leads potential rivals Tom Daschle 53-40 and Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin 51-39.

Oklahoma – Tom Coburn

In a mid-May Public Policy poll, Sen. Coburn leads Gov. Brad Henry 52-40 and Rep. Dan Boren 53-36. Coburn should cruise to reelection.

South Carolina – Jim DeMint

Sen. DeMint seems to be facing no serious challenges this year.

Georgia – Johnny Isakson

Sen. Isakson seems to be facing no serious challenges this year.

Alabama – Richard Shelby

Sen. Shelby seems to be facing no serious challenges this year.

Utah – Robert Bennett

Any Republican would crush a Democratic candidate in scarlet-red Utah. Sen. Bennett may face a tough primary match, but no polls have been taken. However the primary turns out, this is a solidly red seat.

Iowa – Chuck Grassley

Sen. Grassley seems to be facing no serious challenges this year.

Idaho – Mike Crappo

Sen. Crappo seems to be facing no serious challenges this year.

Synopsis:

Republicans stand to make moderate gains in Democratic-held Senate seats in 2010, with Nevada, Connecticut, and Arkansas all already favoring Republicans. We could also easily take Delaware, North Dakota, Illinois, and New York (Gillibrand) with the right recruits. Pennsylvania and Colorado are more up-hill fights, but it is possible to turn them red. California and Hawaii are the long shots while Washington, Wisconsin, Indiana, Oregon, Maryland, Vermont and New York (Schumer) seem out of the question.

Meanwhile, Republicans playing defense look much safer than they did in 2008. the GOP faces up-hill battles in Missouri and Ohio, but these seats are winnable in a wave year. Seats that are on the verge of being competitive include New Hampshire, North Carolina, Louisiana, and Kentucky. Republican seats seem safe in Florida, Kansas, Arizona, and Alaska but could turn competitive if things head south for the GOP. South Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Utah, Iowa, and Idaho seem locked up for the Republicans.

In a massive Republican wave year, we could gain up to 9 seats while protecting all our endangered seats. In a moderate Republican wave, we will gain between 4 and 6 seats with the possibility of losing 1 or 2 for a net of between 2 and 6.

We should do no worse than gaining 1 seat.