georgia-flag

 

Previous installments of this series: Massachusetts, Minnesota, Virginia, Arkansas, Alabama, Vermont.

The Georgia primary is on Tuesday March 1st. Here is an overview of how the state works and the state of the race.

Polling

Polling is all over the place except for one thing: Donald Trump is leading. A recent SurveyUSA poll has Donald Trump up +26 while a local WSB-TV/Landmark poll taken during the same time frame has Trump up by 9. You have to wonder if the internals tell a different story. Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz were  in Georgia on Saturday. Tim Scott was in state on Sunday and Rubio was back in the Atlanta area for another rally on Monday.

Delegate Allocation

This site has the best explanation of how it is broken down

 


Tuesday 1 March 2016: All 76 of Georgia’s delegates to the Republican National Convention are bound to presidential contenders in today’s Presidential Primary.

  • 42 district delegates bound to presidential contenders based on the primary results in each of the 14 congressional districts: each congressional district is assigned 3 National Convention delegates.
    • If a candidate receives a majority of the vote (more than 50%), that candidate is allocated all 3 of the district’s delegates.
    • If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, the candidate with the most votes (plurality) receives 2 delegates and the candidate receiving the next highest number of votes receives 1 delegate. [Rules of the Georgia Republican Party. 7.3(B)(3)]
  • 34 statewide delegates (10 base at-large, 21 bonus, plus 3 RNC delegates) are bound to presidential contenders according to the statewide vote. A mandatory 20% threshold is required for a presidential contender to receive National Convention delegates. If no candidate receives 20%, the threshold is 15%, if no candidate receives 15%, the threshold is 10%. [Rules of the Georgia Republican Party. 7.3(B)(4)]
    • If a candidate receives a majority of the vote (more than 50%), or only 1 candidate meets the threshold, that candidate is allocated the 34 statewide delegates.
    • If no candidate receives a majority of the vote then, for each candidate receiving the threshold or more of the vote, delegates = [the number of votes received by that candidate] × [31 statewide delegates] ÷ [the statewide vote for those candidates received the threshold or more]. Each candidate receives the whole number of delegates (that is, round down to the whole number). If delegates remain, award them to the candidate receiving the most votes statewide (not sure of rounding). [Rules of the Georgia Republican Party. 7.3(B)(4)]
    • The 3 RNC party leader delegates, the National Committeeman, National Committeewoman, and the chairman of the Georgia’s Republican Party are bound to the candidate receiving the most votes statewide. [Rules of the Georgia Republican Party. 7.3(B)(4)]

Significant Endorsements

Nothing from Governor Nathan Deal or the two Senators, Johnny Isakson and David Perdue. Congressmen Lynn Westmoreland and Austin Scott have both endorsed Rubio.

Prediction 

Unless something significant changes, I suspect Donald Trump will the primary race. I don’t believe the SurveyUSA poll that says Trump has 45%. He is probably closer to the two other polls where he is at 34% and 32% respectively. Look for him to be at around that level with Rubio peeling off a good portion of the undecided vote which is pretty high at 11%.