Polls are narrowing in Florida. While Joe Scarborough likes to tout PPP’s poll showing Donald Trump with a yuge 20 point lead over Rubio, recent polls show Rubio anywhere from 5-8 points behind with a week to go of campaigning.
Early voting is going to play a big part in this years decision and if Monmouth Polling is right. Rubio has a great head start in the early voting:
Marco Rubio has only claimed two victories so far, making the Sunshine State his make-or-break moment. The Monmouth University Poll finds the home state U.S. Senator currently trails Donald Trump by 8 points in Florida’s Republican primary.
Trump has support from 38% of likely primary voters compared to 30% who back Marco Rubio. Ted Cruz earns 17% support and John Kasich has 10%. Rubio actually leads Trump by 48% to 23% among the nearly 1-in-5 voters who have already cast their ballots in this “early vote” state. Trump has a 42% to 26% lead among those who have yet to vote.
One of things we have seen during this primary season is Donald Trump’s amazingly over inflated support in closed primaries. Louisiana was a perfect example of that. Prior to actual voting, Trump’s RCP average lead was nearly 16 points. He had a 3.5 point margin of victory.
People might be thinking, “Well so what, Caruso? A win is a win.” That’s true. Especially in Florida where the winner gets all 99 delegates.
That said, Rubio has a week to convince enough voters to get out there and support him. He’s going to have to do this amidst a Super PAC ad blitz from……Ted Cruz. Cruz doesn’t have a chance to win Florida. These ads are all about sinking Rubio against Trump at which point, Rubio would be forced to drop out. That remains to be seen. It’s impossible to predict almost anything this primary season.
Still, this early voting news is good for Rubio.