People probably never thought to commission polls for Idaho because it’s likely nobody realized it would play such a pivotal role in the GOP primaries. But here we are on March 8th and after Donald Trump has claimed victories in Mississippi and Michigan, Idaho becomes a key state for candidates Marco Rubio and especially, Ted Cruz.

Idaho is a closed state which means only Republicans can vote in the primary. Here are some numbers from Idaho Politics Weekly:

IPW’s pollster, Dan Jones & Associates, finds in a survey completed before last week’s Super Tuesday presidential results, that Trump has 30 percent support among Republicans, and 24 percent of political independents favor Trump.

Among all Idahoans, Trump is favored by 23 percent of adults. However, that sample includes Democrats and members of other parties who can’t vote Tuesday.

Here’s what Jones finds in the new survey, conducted Feb. 17-26:

Among Republicans:

  • 30 percent favor Trump.
  • 19 percent like Texas Sen. Ted Cruz
  • 16 percent would vote for Florida Sen. Marco Rubio.
  • 5 percent prefer Ohio Gov. John Kasich.
  • 9 percent would vote for someone else if they could.
  • And 11 percent don’t know.

That 11% of undecided voters is going to be pretty crucial. 

According to the rules of this primary, delegates are allocated based on a proportional basis. Candidates must get 20% of the vote in order to get delegates.