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For the Thirtieth Time, the Obama Administration Admonishes Voters Not to Read Too Much into One Month’s Jobs Numbers

In case you missed it, the June jobs report is out, and the numbers are not good (though the Obama administration had a ready-made – and well-worn – excuse ready to go at a moment’s notice; more on that below).

As Daniel Horowitz wrote here this morning:

The headline number of the establishment survey is that only 80,000 net jobs were created last month, about 100k under the requisite amount to accommodate the population increase.  The working-age population grew by 189k in June, according to the household survey.  As such, there are now 29 thousand more unemployed than there were last month.  The U6 rate also ticked up to 14.9%.

Also, the labor participation rate and population-employment ration remain near all-time lows.  There are now 1.82 million more people not in the labor force now than just 12 months ago.  If you go back to January 2009, the month Obama took office, that number is a whopping 5.48 million!  This comes after several months of dismal jobs reports.  We’ve been averaging just 75,000 new jobs over the past three months.  What about minorities?  According to the household survey, unemployment among blacks ticked up almost a full point to 14.4%.

There’s no question that these numbers are, to put it plainly, abysmal. Further, coming as they do three and a half years into the Barack Obama’s presidency, it would be pretty safe to take this jobs report (along with those that have preceded it) as a reflection of this administration’s economic policies, which clearly haven’t put people back to work in any meaningful numbers since it began.

US Unemployment Rate Chart

US Unemployment Rate data by YCharts

Of course, the Obama administration immediately responded to the anemic report by warning against taking one month’s numbers too seriously, saying, “Therefore, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report and it is informative to consider each report in the context of other data that are becoming available.”

If that admonition sounds familiar, it’s because you’ve heard it before, almost word for word – on thirty separate occasions. That’s right: of the forty-one economic turmoil-filled months Barack Obama has been president, thirty have been followed by almost identical cautions not to take any individual month’s numbers too seriously.

The following links are courtesy of the good folks at the Romney campaign:

May 2012“Therefore, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report and it is helpful to consider each report in the context of other data that are becoming available.”

April 2012: “Therefore, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report and it is helpful to consider each report in the context of other data that are becoming available.”

March 2012: “Therefore, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report, and it is helpful to consider each report in the context of other data that are becoming available.”

February 2012: “Therefore, as the Administration always stresses, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report; nevertheless, the trend in job market indicators over recent months is an encouraging sign.”

January 2012: “Therefore, as the Administration always stresses, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report; nevertheless, the trend in job market indicators over recent months is an encouraging sign.”

December 2011: “Therefore, as the Administration always stresses, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report.”

November 2011“Therefore, as the Administration always stresses, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report.”

October 2011: “The monthly employment and unemployment numbers are volatile and employment estimates are subject to substantial revision. There is no better example than August’s jobs figure, which was initially reported at zero and in the latest revision increased to 104,000. This illustrates why the Administration always stresses it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report.”

September 2011: “Therefore, as the Administration always stresses, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report.”

August 2011: “Therefore, as the Administration always stresses, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report.”

July 2011: “Therefore, as the Administration always stresses, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report.”

June 2011: “Therefore, as the Administration always stresses, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report.”

May 2011: “Therefore, as the Administration always stresses, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report.”

April 2011“Therefore, as the Administration always stresses, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report.”

March 2011“Therefore, as the Administration always stresses, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report.”

February 2011: “Therefore, as the Administration always stresses, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report.”

January 2011“Therefore, as the Administration always stresses, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report.”

December 2010: “Therefore, as the Administration always stresses, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report.”

November 2010: “Therefore, as the Administration always stresses, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report.”

October 2010: “Given the volatility in monthly employment and unemployment data, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report.”

September 2010: “Given the volatility in the monthly employment and unemployment data, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report.”

July 2010: “Therefore, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report, positive or negative.  It is essential that we continue our efforts to move in the right direction and replace job losses with robust job gains.”

August 2010: “Therefore, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report, positive or negative.”

June 2010: “As always, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report, positive or negative.”

May 2010: “As always, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report, positive or negative.”

April 2010: “Therefore, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report, positive or negative.”

March 2010: “Therefore, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report, positive or negative.”

January 2010: “Therefore, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report, positive or negative.”

November 2009: “Therefore, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report, positive or negative.”

Once again, out of 41 months, that’s 30 warnings not to take monthly jobs reports too seriously. With unemployment sitting at 8.2 percent, and the election only four months away, the verdict is already in, and it’s not based on “any one monthly report, positive or negative.” It’s based on a record nearly four years long – a record that clearly shows this president can’t be trusted with this economy any longer.

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COMMENTS

  • http://www.taxpolitics.com taxpolitics

    On my blog. Obama is a parrot
    http://wp.me/p1ebxi-U4

  • wintermute

    this is something that could easily go viral. I just forwarded it to a bunch of people I know. Its such a simple observation.

    Im glad the Romney campaign is doing this kind of research.

  • http://www4.webng.com/rickbull/lostlucky/ rickbull

    If this amateur gets re-elected to the presidency, I believe there is truly no hope for this country. The democrats will have proven that they can buy the majority of votes by giving away free cheese.

    • Bill S

      And if it had a “D” in front of it on the ballot, it would get at least 35-40% of the vote. Because Boosh.

      • http://www4.webng.com/rickbull/lostlucky/ rickbull

        why we celebrate on July 4th, I can accept 35-40% voting for a D(umbunny); 51% is the number that really scares me, because when a majority of voting residents of this country can’t spot a snake oil salesman, we are in it up to our eyeballs.

        • Bill S

          …that getting 3/4 of the way there is not a hard task. All they have to do is hoodwink 10% of the voters to get the rest. A few more governmental giveaways oughta do it.

          • http://www4.webng.com/rickbull/lostlucky/ rickbull

            Let’s hope that we can inspire another generation the way Reagan inspired mine.

            Do we want to depend a a capricious government to take care of us, are will we, once again, become self-reliant like the generation that fought and won WWII?

            This choice is ours: let’s hope that the majority of us make the right choice.

      • westcoastpatriette

        (can’t remember his title — I think he was a pastor) interviewed by Laura Ingraham and she asked if he thought the blacks would still vote for Obama in overwhelming numbers and he said, yes. He went on to explain that even though many are disappointed with the direction Obama has taken on social issues and his failure to improve the economy, blacks will still stand behind him because he is a good role-model for blacks. Particularly, Obama’s image as a strong father and husband. Given the breakdown of the family in the black community, that is understandable.

        • Bill S

          Except for the color of his skin, Romney qualifies on those points as well. But racism in reverse is ok, apparently.

        • http://impudent.edublogs.org/ kyle8

          Barack could do an O J on Michelle in the Rose garden in front of cameras and they would still vote for him.

          This is a cultural thing. Instead of being a figure that transcended race, Obama is just the biggest in a long line of king fish.

          • Ann_W

            A black woman was teaching our foster parenting class, and said, in passing that the DCF rules were racist. I asked, “Which rules?” and she said that the rules that said there couldn’t be a relative placement in a home if a convicted felon lived there. I asked how that was racist. She said that no black mom would kick out a relative even if they were a felon. At that moment I got a little glimpse of a culture that is loyal regardless of behavior. That will be the case in November, I’m sure.

        • http://libertynews.com/ mbecker908

          That comment, by the pastor, has to be the dumbest thing I’ve read in months. And we wonder why the black community has gone to hell.

          Good grief.

          • westcoastpatriette

            because I don’t, but this is how most of them view things. It is an enigma to me. Their loyalty to their own is blind to everything but color. They seem able to excuse all of the bad because he is black and that is good. ???

            And they are desperate for good family role models.

          • http://libertynews.com/ mbecker908

            …been a long day, sorry.

        • westcoastpatriette

          http://www.theblaze.com/stories/pastor-says-black-christians-should-withhold-support-from-obama-over-same-sex-marriage/

          It is encouraging to see more blacks putting their foot down and demanding change from Obama.

          • funwithknives

            They’re gonna be thrown sufficient face savings to drop this ‘effort’, and just go get in line.

            I say this living so close to Detroit {adjacent to the fabled Eight Mile Road} that when the wind blows from the East , you cannot miss ‘The Olefactory Aura’ [this is me being P C}

            He’s ‘the chief of the tribe’ and sociobiology is the decider for these dupes. Anybody who wants to call me The R word can go right ahead.
            History and voting records say I am not incorrect……
            …..and I’m Dutch/Irish-American and been called lots worse.

          • westcoastpatriette

            as I admit to being naively optimistic sometimes.

            Politics can be really nauseating and I am tempted to walk away from it all a lot.

          • westcoastpatriette

            and I wouldn’t think of calling you the R word. The evidence for your hypothesis is everywhere in our faces.

          • funwithknives

            good, moral and consructive in a most basic sense.
            Optimism shows you look for goodness in most, if not all things and is commendable. I would ‘like me somma’ that ‘, but the cynic/ realist in me just will not permit it.
            Reading your posts , I sense you look for goodness where-ever you can, But I do wonder if Our Creator makes these scenarios up just to test, tease and guide us? On Odd-Numbered Days?
            If He’s up there giggling, just a smidge?

            I know You would never use that word. but I use the disclaimer virtually all the time , as I have had My Fill of the never-ending use of it as a cover for blatant failings of oppositional forces.
            Gonna’ hit 59 years in a short while and Now, I can just be written off as ‘To be respected as an elder “.

            …and as for me being ‘wise’ ,you silver-tongued-thing you, …..
            I’m blushing as I scribble……………

    • commonsenseobserver

      But the voters who put him in the White House.

      • http://www4.webng.com/rickbull/lostlucky/ rickbull

        it’s the ones who voted for him who still think he’s doing one heckuva job, if you know what I mean. I can forgive the ones who were fooled by him and now are experiencing buyer’s remorse.

        Fool me once . . .

      • checkmate2012

        he thinks he’s a king and if re-elected by hook or crook, will do damage without control. Most voters have more common sense than the crook in charge and will vote him out- regardless of what they tell a pollster.

        Buyer’s remorse has set in, IMO. The fringe freaks will vote for him no matter what but I don’t think he’ll get 93% of the black vote this time around.

  • checkmate2012

    We’re on a wicked merry-go round that we can’t get off of: “it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report”. And yet people still clap at his stump speeches. Are they paid clappers?

    Obama Fatigue Syndrome has set in and will take a good dose of Constitutional fortitude to remedy.

    • http://www4.webng.com/rickbull/lostlucky/ rickbull

      nt

      • checkmate2012

        on retainer for all of his “stops”. His speech stops are closed and guarded and vetted…no R’s or I’s allowed, only die-hard D’s.

        That’s why they all clap at his every stinkin’ word…they’re paid, just like his surrogates are to repeat don’t read into one month’s job report. sick.

        • http://www4.webng.com/rickbull/lostlucky/ rickbull

          he gets to spend taxpayer money instead of campaign funds.

          The “billion dollar campaign” is not what he planned to raise, it’s what we spend daily on “entitlements” to pay for his “paid clappers.”

  • commonsenseobserver

    http://obamaisntworking.com/press/broken-record-broken-promises/

  • thefern

    But you start quoting Obama November of 2009 and it is now July of 2012. You pretty much quoted him every month since the highest point of the unemployment rate. You quote him every month saying that people shouldn’t read into the month by month numbers. The Unemployment rate has generally declined over this period. The numbers go up some months and the numbers go down some months. Thirty months after the spike of over 10% unemployment (U6 figures, the actual unemployment rate is much higher) the unemployment rate is currently at 8.2%.

    This is a horrible record of unemployment for a sitting president, and a big reason why Obama will probably lose re-election. But, Obama is right on this point: you shouldn’t read too much into any given month of job creation or job loss. Your chart indicates exactly this.

    • PowerToThePeople

      especially one who sucks at being a good troll.

    • Melody Warbington (rwm52)

      I’m sure they’re not going to read too much into another month of nothing.

    • gbenton

      THAT is the point.

      Taken on it’s own, sure, don’t read to much into ONE month of data. But, when you have unemployment above 8% your entire presidency and real unemployment over 14% and stagnant labor participation AND you blew almost a TRILLION dollars (much of it to your cronies) and promised sub 6% unemployment by this time… THEN you have zero credibility.

      You can point to the trend down from 10% to 8% if you like, but the kicker is that job growth for his entire presidency has averaged about 70,000 a month, which is about half of what you’d need to keep up with population growth.

      IF Obama was a sincere man and in any way admitted his policies had not worked as hoped, THEN I could see trying to cut the man some slack as you appear to want to.

      But when he lies, sends out his minions to lie (see Obamatax), and you have Fast and Furious, and you have him referring to us as ‘enemies’ and just every damn thing this wannabe tyrant has done… I can not imagine giving him anything but scorn and condemnation.

      He needs to be voted out. He was never qualified for the job and an honorable man with such a thin resume would not have sought the job when the nation needed a real leader.

      No, what has gotten this country in trouble is all the ‘bipartisan’ baloney, all the ‘let’s be decent’ to the left. NO. These people take every inch and run miles and laps around the overly concerned such as yourself.

      These people are trying to transform this nation into something else right in front of our eyes and it is your attitude writ large that is letting it happen.

      Be a happy warrior by all means, but BE A WARRIOR for the Country and vote these leftist liars OUT.

      You saw what they did when then had total control… Pelosi pranced with that damn gavel and they rammed through Obamatax.

      Their idea of bipartisanship and being reasonable is we give up principles and they get what they want. You can not have fair dealings when the other side is out to screw you.

    • Frederick

      …while it’s correct to not take anyone one month’s numbers too seriously, the Administration has saaid this about 30 straight jobs reports, most of them abysmal. There are 5.48 million people no longer in the workforce. The economic programs that the President promised would deliver more jobs haven’t done that.

      But we shouldn’t focus on any one jobs report.

      The trend has been for disappointing jobs totals again and again and again, and the Administration wants us to act like it’s not a big deal. Instead of saying, “another disappointing jobs total!” they want us focusing on the fact that this is just one month. Move along, nothing to see.

    • Bill S

      So at what point do you think anecdotal data begins to actually be a trend? I’d say that 30+ months (does that suit you, Doctor Math?) of sub-par numbers pretty much qualifies as a pattern … of Obama failure.

    • funwithknives

      I AM Unemployed and have been for quite some while.

      I SEE the direct effects of this rank ‘Noob’
      of an economist who thinks ‘he knows’ ,but knows less than nothing.

      My trade {Construction inspector ,municipal} and it’s supporting industries have evaporated hereabouts due to insane money/credit stoppages, house finance disregard and a general ignorance of financial markets.
      Onlt a handful of Companies I worked with just a few years ago are still around. Auctions seemingly every month and you know where the equipt. goes: India and The 3rd World. I go and I see this with my own eyes.

      The real U/E rate is far higher, {current and given-up} as it is reality based. But The Fantasy President will not even give this fact a glance.
      He could send some flacks to a few Grocery stores in the daytime and look around/ask some people and he’d learn a bunch. All the guys that are there cannot find work,or need training they cannot afford.

      He’s gonna get a big shock, in just a couple-a months…….

  • thefern

    November 2009 to June 20012. Thirty quotes in thirty-two months. On this point we disagree.

    • PowerToThePeople

      concern troll. His term started in Jan of 2009, it is July of 2012.

      2009 12 months Minus 1 as there would only be 11 attributed to him
      2010 12 months
      2011 12 months
      2012 7 months minus 1 as July is not over

      This adds up to 41 months there genius.

    • http://jeffemanuel.net Jeff Emanuel

      Feb 2009 through June 2012 (discounting the partial Jan 09 and July 12). You’re correct that it’s 30 of a 32-month string, which makes it even worse IMO.

  • commonsenseobserver

    http://dailycaller.com/2012/07/07/gm-reports-increased-sales-because-of-government-intervention/

    I’m not too sure the people of Ohio and Michigan like being lied to.

    • commonsenseobserver

      But that means the government is essentially paying itself, using taxpayers’ money, to create more cars and jobs.

  • lastgopinillinois

    especially since we know that they don’t count any of the people who have fallen off the un-employment rolls, gave up looking for jobs, and all those who are under-employed.
    paradoxically, these facts don’t count in FAVOR of 0bamanomics, though.

    Amazingly, we are directed to take the report with a grain of salt since it is only a report for ONE MONTH. We must do as we are told and should not think for ourselves anymore. We should not think about the fact that all the people mentioned above add up month after month, but are not added to the statistics.

    But, we must keep handing out guest worker visas and green-cards to illegal aliens while our oun citizens are begging for jobs.

    • Dave_A

      The Unemployment Rate is calculated based on a phone-poll conducted by the US BLS.

      It has NOTHING AT ALL to do with who’s on the unemployment rolls.

      What the poll does not count, is ‘discouraged workers’ – but that’s not the government cooking the books, that’s the economic definition of ‘Unemployment’.

      According to accepted economics, you are only unemployed if you are in the labor force & not currently in a job.

      If you have stopped looking for work, you are OUT of the labor force, and thus not unemployed. The logic behind this, is that there is a certain segment of the population that is either too lazy to work, or permanently disabled, or otherwise unemployable even under perfect conditions. These people do not count as ‘unemployed’.

      Further, attempting to determine ‘underemployment’ is a subjective & scientifically invalid task. Who’s underemployed? How do you make the determination? See the problem?

      U6 is a completely worthless, invalid statistic. Kind of like M3 for monetary matters…

      There is ANOTHER statistic – the ‘Labor Force Participation Rate’ that can be referenced in regards to the economy, but the technically-correct unemployment number is and always will be ‘U3′.

  • http://nobletimes.com Franklin Brown

    … has ever won re-election with unemployment so high.

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