Senate Update

Connecticut: Quinnipiac University’s latest Q-Poll (11/3-8; 1,236 registered CT voters; 474 Democrats and 332 Republicans) shows former Republican Rep. Rob Simmons decisively leading leftwing Sen. Chris Dodd (D), 49-38%. Ex-Ambassador to Ireland Tom Foley (R) leads Dodd 47-40%. Former World Wrestling Federation executive Linda McMahon, already spending large amounts of her own money on advertising, even has a two point lead over the five term Senator, 43-41%. Against two unknown Republican candidates, state Sen. Sam Caligiuri and businessman Peter Schiff, Dodd can do no better than tie the former at 42% and lead the latter by a single point, 42-41%. Dodd’s job approval rating has dipped to a Jon Corzine-like 40:54%.

Illinois: Democratic Senatorial contender Cheryle Jackson, the president of the Chicago Urban League, is making known the results of her internal Celinda Lake Research poll. It shows her trailing state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias 31-13% in the Democratic primary. Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL-10) will win the GOP nomination. This is a competitive race in the fall.

Nevada: Yet another Republican officially joined the already bulging field of candidates vying for the chance to oppose Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D). Former Nevada Board of Education member Greg Dagani now becomes the 11th official GOP primary contender and candidate filing doesn’t close until March 12th.

Massachusetts: Suffolk University is out with a new poll (11/4-8; 600 registered MA voters) and the results show little change from previous surveys. Attorney General Martha Coakley (D) continues to enjoy a huge lead in the Democratic primary, posting 44% against Boston Celtics co-owner Steve Pagliuca’s 17%, Rep. Mike Capuano’s 16%, and businessman Alan Khazei’s 3%. The primary is December 8th; the special general is January 19th. The leftist Coakley is the state’s next Senator, as the eventual Republican nominee has little chance to become competitive.

North Carolina: Rep. Bob Etheridge (D-NC-2) promises to announce his decision about running for the Senate by this weekend. Since he has already informed the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee of his intentions, and they reportedly asked him to delay making his decision public for a couple of days, speculators believe that he will not run statewide. Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) is already a Senatorial candidate, but trails GOP incumbent Richard Burr (R) by double digits in all early polling. Former Lt. Gov. Dennis Wicker (D), is saying he will consider running if Etheridge decides to seek re-election to the House. After forming an exploratory committee months ago, former state Sen. Cal Cunningham announced he would not seek the Democratic Senatorial nomination.

Ohio: Quinnipiac University also completed a poll (11/5-9; 1,123 registered OH voters) in the Buckeye State Senate race and it is reporting very good news. Republican Rob Portman has taken a three point lead over ultra-liberal Lt. Governor Lee Fisher (D), 39-36%, in their isolated ballot test. Against even more liberal and partisan Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner (D), Portman leads 38-34%. Unknown businessman Tom Ganley (R) also fares well against the Democrats. Despite having virtually no name ID, Ganley trails Fisher 38-34% and Brunner 35-32%.

House Update

CO-4: Former Ft. Collins city councilor Diggs Brown will announce his candidacy for the Republican congressional nomination and the right to challenge freshman Rep. Betsy Markey (D). Already in the race is the early favorite, state Rep. Cory Gardner, and University of Colorado Regent Tom Lucero. The general election will be highly competitive.

DE-AL: Businessman Fred Cullis became the first Republican to declare for the open seat being vacated by Rep. Mike Castle’s (R) run for the Senate. Former Lt. Governor John Carney (D) is the prohibitive favorite to win next November. DE-AL represents the Democrats’ best chance to convert a Republican open seat.

FL-8: Freshman state Rep. Eric Eisnaugle (R) announced he will not run for Congress next year. The GOP field of candidates continues to dwindle despite the fact that kooky freshman Rep. Alan Grayson (D) appears highly vulnerable.

FL-13: African American pastor James Golden (D) announced that he will challenge sophomore Rep. Vern Buchanan (R). After winning the closest election in 2006, the Congressman appears to be in solid political shape to win a third term.

ID-1: State House Majority Leader Ken Roberts (R) has dropped his bid for Congress. This makes former CIA officer Vaughn Ward the leading candidate for the Republican nomination. Former Rep. Bill Sali (R) has still not ruled out another campaign. The eventual GOP nominee will face freshman Rep. Walt Minnick (D) and will have a strong chance of winning this district, a territory that gave John McCain 62% of the vote last November.

IN-3: Veteran conservative Rep. Mark Souder (R) is getting a primary challenge from the right. Attorney Phil Troyer, a former congressional aide, officially announced his candidacy for the Republican nomination. Former Ft. Wayne city Councilman Tom Hayhurst, who challenged Souder in 2006 and drew 46% of the vote, will run again for the Democrats.

NJ-3: Reports emanating from New Jersey are that state and national Republican leaders are attempting to recruit former Philadelphia Eagles offensive lineman Jon Runyan into the race against freshman Rep. John Adler (D). Until 2008, the 3rd district had been in Republican hands since Jim Saxton won the seat back in 1984. Governor-elect Chris Christie (R) ran particularly strong in this part of the state last week during his election, prompting renewed GOP interest in winning back this congressional seat.

NY-23: Errors made in counting the election night ballots for the special election in upstate New York are making the final margin of victory much closer, but will not overturn Democrat Bill Owens’ win last week. Adjusting for the tabulation error and estimating the results of the 5,400 absentee ballots that remain uncounted probably means Owens 5,000+ vote margin decreases to under 2,000.

NY-24: Republican Richard Hanna, who lost to incumbent Rep. Michael Arcuri (D) 52-48% last November, is making moves to run again. Hanna is the National Republican Congressional Committee’s first choice to again be their standard bearer in 2008.

PA-17: State Sen. David Argall (R) says he’s “99% certain” he will not challenge nine-term Rep. Tim Holden (D) for what should be a Republican congressional seat.

Governor Update

Colorado: State Senate Minority Leader Josh Penry (R) announced he is ending his campaign for Governor. This puts former US Rep. Scott McInnis (R) in the driver’s seat for the Republican gubernatorial nomination. Gov. Bill Ritter (D), whose job approval ratings are poor and trails McInnis in early general election polling, is highly vulnerable. Penry stated he was withdrawing from the race in the interest of party unity after seeing the victories united Republican efforts in Virginia and New Jersey produced.

Connecticut: Gov. Jodi Rell (R), despite polls showing her in relatively strong shape for re-election in a highly Democratic state, announced she would not seek a second full term in office. Rell, then the state’s Lt. Governor, replaced Gov. John Rowland in 2004, after the latter was convicted of accepting bribes. Democrats will now be the favorites to capture the state house. The leading candidates are Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz and 2006 Democratic Senatorial nominee Ned Lamont.

Ohio: The Quinnipiac Ohio poll (11/5-9; 1,123 registered OH voters) shows Gov. Ted Strickland (D) and former presidential candidate and Congressman John Kasich (R) in a 40-40% tie in their latest gubernatorial ballot test. Strickland’s job approval ratio has dropped to 45:43% positive to negative.

Rhode Island: Liberal Lincoln Chafee, who served in the US Senate as a Republican until his defeat in 2006, is now running for Governor as an Independent. He claims his internal polling shows him leading Democratic state Treasurer Frank Caprio and Republican businessman Rory Smith 36-34-8%, respectively. According to Chafee, the poll stakes him to a 37-24-15% lead over Democratic Attorney General Patrick Lynch and Smith.

Senate Update

Massachusetts: A New England College Polling Institute survey (10/18-22; 468 registered MA Democratic voters) shows Attorney General Martha Coakley maintaining a strong lead in the battle to replace the late Sen. Ted Kennedy (D). Coakley places first at 37% in the Democratic primary forecast, Boston Celtics owner Steve Pagliuca is second at 14%, Rep. Mike Capuano has 13%, and philanthropist Alan Khazei is last with 4%. Winning the Democratic primary is tantamount to final victory. The special primary is December 8th followed by a January 19th special general election.

Pennsylvania: Franklin & Marshall College released a small-sample poll of the Pennsylvania electorate (10/20-25; 616 adults; 529 registered PA voters, with a relatively large error factor of 4.3%). Aside from showing that all PA politicians and President Obama, with the exception of Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D), have upside down approval ratings, the survey gave Sen. Arlen Specter (D) only a 33-31% lead over Republican Pat Toomey. Specter leads Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA-7) 30-18% in the Democratic primary. Toomey leads Sestak 28-20%, when those two are isolated in a general election pairing.

South Dakota: Democrats may have finally found a candidate to take the long-shot plunge against Sen. John Thune (R). Mark McGovern, grandson of former Senator and presidential candidate George McGovern (D) and director of an alternative energy advocacy group, is indicating he may challenge the popular first-term Senator.

Wisconsin: Terrence Wall, a wealthy Madison area real estate developer who would have the capacity to self-fund his campaign, is indicating he will challenge three-term Sen. Russ Feingold (D) next year. Wall’s presence in the race would give Republicans a credible candidate in the uphill battle against the quintessential leftwing Senator.

House Update

FL-19: Liberal state Sen. Ted Deutch (D) appears to be locking up all the key support in his quest to replace retiring Rep. Robert Wexler (D), who is resigning mid-term. Aside from gaining Wexler’s official endorsement, Reps. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL-20), Ron Klein (D-FL-22), and Alcee Hastings (D-FL-23) have also officially endorsed the Palm Beach County state legislator. Republicans have no chance in this district.

IL-7: Rep. Danny Davis (D) has already announced his candidacy for Cook County Board President, but may now be hedging his bet. He apparently will file petitions for re-election, too. He has until November 9th to withdraw from one of the races.

IL-18: Democrats have a candidate to oppose freshman Rep. Aaron Schock (R). D.K. Himer, the state director of the Illinois Environmental Regulatory Group, says he will run for Congress. Schock is rated as a heavy favorite for re-election.

IA-3: Seven-term congressional veteran Leonard Boswell (D) may draw another strong Republican challenger yet again. State Senator Brad Zaun is now testing the waters for a congressional run next year. Zaun is also the former Mayor of Urbandale, a Des Moines suburb.

MI-2: State Sen. Bill Kuipers joined the large Republican field vying to replace retiring Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R), who is running for Governor. Already is the race is former state Rep. Bill Huizenga, ex-NFL and University of Michigan football player Jay Riemersma, and businessman Bill Cooper. Winning the GOP nomination in this western Michigan district means victory in the general election and a potentially long congressional career.

MN-3: Freshman GOP Rep. Erik Paulsen is now seeing a group of potential opponents line up against him. Psychiatrist Maureen Hackett (D) is the first to file petitions to run, but Minnesota PTA president Jim Meffert-Nelson is expected to soon follow suit. State Sen. Teri Bonoff, who lost the 2008 Democratic nomination to military veteran Ashwin Madia, says she is also considering a 2010 run for Congress.

Governor Update

Connecticut: A new poll shows a competitive race between incumbent Republican Jodi Rell and Democratic challenger Susan Bysiewicz, the current Secretary of State, within six points of the Governor, 47-41%, according to internal Democratic data. The numbers are believable, however, since Connecticut is so overwhelmingly Democratic.

Massachusetts: Despite very poor approval ratings, the proposed three-way general election, featuring state Treasurer Tim Cahill running as an Independent, apparently gives Gov. Deval Patrick (D) the inside track for re-election. According to a new Rasmussen Reports (10/22; 500 registered MA voters) poll, Patrick would lead a race against Republican businessman Christy Mahos and Cahill 34-23-23%. Against Republican healthcare executive Charlie Baker and Cahill, the numbers are similar: 34-24-23% in favor of Gov. Patrick.

New Mexico: Former Rep. Heather Wilson (R-NM-1) announced that she will not seek the open Governor’s office next year. Four relatively unknown Republicans are battling for their nomination. Lt. Governor Diane Denish (D) has the inside track to her party’s nomination and is becoming a heavy favorite to eventually replace term-limited Gov. Bill Richardson (D).

Ohio: The University of Cincinnati released a poll conducted for the Ohio Newspaper (10/14-20; 687 registered OH voters), and it showed a close race between Gov. Ted Strickland (D) and former Rep. John Kasich (R). Among likely voters, Strickland leads 49-46%; when just registered voters are sampled, Kasich actually does better, pulling within one point, 48-47%.

Pennsylvania: The aforementioned Franklin & Marshall College poll also surveyed the respective gubernatorial primary fields. Among Democrats, Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato leads the crowded field of candidates, but with just 10% among those expressing a preference. The Republican field is clearer. Attorney General Tom Corbett has a 30-8% lead over Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-PA-6).

Rhode Island: Republicans may have found a credible candidate for Governor, thus making a likely three-way race to replace term-limited Gov. Don Carcieri (R). Businessman Rory Smith, philosophically from the Carcieri wing of the Republican Party, will run. Former Republican Sen. Lincoln Chafee is in the race as an Independent, and the two will face an eventual Democratic nominee, possibly state Treasurer Frank Caprio or Attorney General Patrick Lynch. Democrats are the early favorites to convert the state house, and may have an even greater advantage in a three-way race.

South Carolina: Lt. Governor Andre Bauer (R), who would ascend to the Governorship early next year if legislators pursue threats to impeach Gov. Mark Sanford (R), announced that he will run for the state’s top office next year. Already in the GOP race are Attorney General Henry McMaster and Rep. Gresham Barrett (R-SC-3). Superintendent of Public Instruction Jim Rex leads the Democratic side.

Wisconsin: Lt. Gov. Barbara Lawton (D) has now reversed course and announced that she will not run for Governor next year. This paves the way for Milwaukee Mayor and former US Rep. Tom Barrett (D) to run for the Democratic nomination. Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker and former Rep. Mark Neumann are in the Republican field of candidates. Gov. Jim Doyle (D) has already announced his retirement.

Senate Update

Arkansas: Better polling news is evident for Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D), after several surveys suggested she was running even with virtually unknown Republican candidates. Lincoln usually simultaneously tries be liberal, moderate and conservative. The Benenson Strategy Group (10/5-7; 703 registered AR voters), polling for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, shows Lincoln leading state Sen. Gilbert Baker (R) 50-37%. Against state Sen. Kim Hendren (R), the count is an almost identical 51-37%. Talk of a Democratic primary challenge for Lincoln, however, is brewing, from her left and right. Both Lt. Gov. Bill Halter and state Senate President Bob Johnson have not ruled out running for the Senate.

Florida: Two new polls show the Republican primary race between moderate Gov. Charlie Crist and conservative former House Speaker Marco Rubio tightening. Rasmussen Reports (10/19; 1,000 registered FL voters) has Crist ahead of Rubio 49-35%. Quinnipiac University (10/12-18; 1,078 registered FL voters/396 Republicans) posts the Governor to a similar 50-35%. This is a swing of some 14 points from the August Q-Poll away from Crist and toward Rubio.

Illinois: Rasmussen Reports released the findings of a small sample survey (10/14; 500 registered IL voters) of the US Senate race. In this study, both Democratic state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D) and Rep. Mark Kirk (R) post an identical 41% support level.

Iowa: Research 2000 (10/12-14; 600 registered IA voters) also tests Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) in his bid for a sixth term. Paired with Christine Vilsack (D), wife of US Agriculture Secretary and former Governor Tom Vilsack, Grassley leads 51-40%. Against former US Attorney and Democratic gubernatorial nominee Roxanne Conlin, who is not an official Senatorial candidate, Grassley posts a similar 51-39% margin.

Nevada: Now Democratic pollsters are detecting numbers for Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) to be in the same realm as recently released public surveys. Research 2000, polling for the leftist Progressive Change Campaign Committee, finds Reid trailing former GOP Republican chair Sue Lowden 47-42%, and ex-Secretary of State candidate Danny Tarkanian (R) 46-41%. The firm did not test Reid against businessman John Chachas. R2000 pegs Reid’s favorability ratio at a poor 35:54%, again similar to the public data.

House Update

IL-14: Former Aurora city Alderman Bill Cross (R) dropped out of the GOP primary, the winner of which will challenge liberal Rep. Bill Foster (D), who replaced GOP House Speaker Dennis Hastert. The nomination contest, to be settled February 2nd, is now between Hastert’s son, Ethan, and state Sen. Randy Hultgren.

IL-16: Rep. Don Manzullo (R) is apparently getting a rare general election challenge. Freeport, IL Mayor George Gaultrapp (D) announced that he will challenge the nine-term Congressman for his northwestern Illinois US House seat. Manzullo, the conservative chairman of the House Small Business Committee when the Republicans were in the majority, is rated as the prohibitive favorite for re-election.

LA-3: Houma Democratic attorney Ravi Sangisetty is officially in the race to replace Rep. Charlie Melancon (D), who is running for the Senate. He already leads the money raising contest, reporting almost $136,000 in campaign contributions, but that total includes a self-donation of $50,000. State Rep. Nickie Monica (R) is among the Republican contenders. In an open situation, this is one of the Republicans’ best national conversion opportunities.

PA-11: Feeling that the 2010 turnout model will be more favorable for a Republican congressional candidate than that of two years ago, Hazelton Mayor Lou Barletta will reportedly again challenge Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D). Barletta lost 52-48% in ’08, after polling ahead for most of the race against the scandal-tainted incumbent who was first elected in 1984. Kanjorski has also drawn a significant primary challenge from Lackawanna County Commissioner Corey O’Brien (D), thus possibly further weakening the long-time Congressman.

Governor Update

Florida: The aforementioned Florida Quinnipiac Poll shows GOP Attorney General Bill McCollum with a 36-32% lead over state CFO Adelaide “Alex” Sink (D). Both candidates already appear to have their respective nominations already sewn up.

Iowa: The same Research 2000 that tested Sen. Chuck Grassley (see above) also studied the Governor’s race. This data brings the race back down to earth after liberal Gov. Chet Culver (D) was badly trailing former Gov. Terry Branstad (R) in several polls. Branstad still leads within this sample, too, but it is a much smaller 48-43%.

Michigan: EPIC/MRA (10/11-14; 600 registered MI voters), polling for the Detroit News, puts the Republicans in strong position against Lt. Gov. John Cherry (D), the consensus Democratic nominee. Attorney General John Cox (R) leads Cherry 45-30%. Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard (R) has a 39-30% lead, and Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R-MI-2) enjoys a 40-33% advantage over the Lt. Governor. In a Republican primary match-up, Hoekstra leads for the first time, scoring 29% against Cox’s 28%, and Bouchard’s 14%.

New Jersey: Polls continue to roll in, testing the final week of the raucous gubernatorial race among Republican Chris Christie, Gov. Jon Corzine (D) and Independent Chris Daggett. All of the polls show Christie and Corzine deadlocked or within three points of each other. Daggett gains substantial double-digit support, but is not close to taking the lead. This race will now be decided through voter turnout.

Rhode Island: Former RINO Republican Sen. Lincoln Chafee, who is now running for Governor as an Independent, is finding fundraising tough going against Democratic state Treasurer Frank Caprio. The latest reports show Chafee with only $180,000 in his campaign account compared to Caprio’s $1.5 million. Though Chafee is capable of investing large amounts of his own money, the contributions from others category often times proves to be better than polling data to detect candidate support levels.

Virginia: Things are looking good for Republican former Attorney General Bob McDonnell. All polls show him with substantial leads over state Sen. Creigh Deeds (D) for the November 3rd Governor’s race. The Democratic firm Public Policy Polling released its findings on October 14. They show McDonnell expanding his lead to 52-40%, up from 47-42% when compared with their last poll. Survey USA (10-17-19; 900 registered VA voters) pegs McDonnell to an even bigger 59-40% lead over Deeds as the campaign heads into its final week.

Senate Update

Delaware: Republican At-Large Rep. Mike Castle announced that he will run for the state’s open US Senate seat. His likely opponent is Attorney General Beau Biden, the Vice-President’s son. The latest polling shows Castle leading by five points. Appointed Sen. Ted Kaufman (D) is not a candidate for the special election in November of 2010. The winner has the right to serve the balance of the current term, which ends in 2014.

Florida: Former Miami Mayor Maurice Ferre, 74, is saying that he will run for the Democratic Senatorial nomination. Miami Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-FL-17) continues to be a solid favorite to win the Democratic primary, however.

Kentucky: Rasmussen Reports released the results of their latest Senatorial poll (9/30; 500 likely KY registered voters). Republican Secretary of State Trey Grayson and Attorney General Jack Conway (D) are tied at 40%. Grayson leads Lt. Governor and 2004 Senatorial nominee Dan Mongiardo (D) 44-37%. Conway leads Rand Paul (R), son of US Rep. and former presidential candidate Ron Paul (R-TX-14) 42-38%, but Paul leads Mongiardo 43-38%, in separate pairings.

Louisiana: Rasmussen Reports (10/5; 500 likely LA registered voters) released the results of their Bayou State US Senate survey. They find Sen. David Vitter (R) holds a 46-36% lead over Rep. Charlie Melancon (D-LA-3).

Massachusetts: Democratic Attorney General Martha Coakley released a Lake Research poll (9/21-24; 800 likely MA voters) showing her with a 47-12% lead over Rep. Mike Capuano (D-MA-8). Though the poll is dated, the numbers mesh with other polls that are now in the public domain. The two are vying to win the special election necessitated by the death of Sen. Edward Kennedy (D).

Nevada: A new Mason-Dixon poll (10/6-8; 500 registered NV voters) again shows Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) trailing two potential Republican opponents. Pitted against Nevada Republican Chair Sue Lowden, Reid trails 49-39%. Against former Secretary of State candidate Danny Tarkanian, Reid is down by five points, 48-43%. The Majority Leader’s favorability ratio is a poor 38:50%. President Obama scores 46:43% on the same question. Lowden leads Tarkanian 23-21% in a Republican primary match-up.

House Update

FL-8: In the wake of Rep. Alan Grayson’s (D) comments saying Republicans want people to die because they oppose a government run healthcare program, businessman Armando Gutierrez, Jr. announced his congressional candidacy. Gutierrez’s father was the spokesman for the Elian Gonzalez family in Miami, when the Clinton Administration returned the Cuban refugee child back to the controversial island nation. Republicans are waiting for former state Senate President Dan Webster to make a decision about his own candidacy. Most believe Webster, forecast to be the GOP’s strongest candidate, will run.

GA-2: Some surprising fundraising totals are being registered by certain GOP candidates in heretofore non-competitive districts. State Rep. Mike Keown (R), challenging nine-term Rep. Sanford Bishop (D), raised $105,000 for the previous quarter and has $101,000 cash-on-hand.

HI-1: Hawaii state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa (D) officially entered the open 1st congressional district campaign. She will oppose former 2nd district Rep. Ed Case in the Democratic primary. The two faced each other before, in the 2nd district, when Case was first elected. Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou will be the Republican nominee.

KY-6: In another district that has the potential of voting Republican but has a previously unchallenged Democratic Congressman (Ben Chandler), attorney Andy Barr (R) reports raising $185,000 for his fledging campaign.

NV-3: State Senator Joe Heck officially ended his campaign for Governor and will challenge freshman Rep. Dina Titus (D) in the 3rd district. Heck’s candidacy gives the GOP a strong candidate in a district that has grown more Democratic since it was originally drawn in 2001. Titus begins the race as the favorite.

NY-15: The rumor that Rep. Charlie Rangel (D) would step down from the House and allow Gov. David Paterson to run for his congressional seat has been squelched. Paterson says he has no interest in running for Congress and continues his quest to win election to a full term as Governor.

OH-16: Congressional candidate Jim Renacci (R), owner of the now defunct Arena Football League’s Columbus franchise, reports raising $202,000 in the first quarter of his campaign against freshman Rep. John Boccieri (D).

OH-18: 2008 GOP nominee Fred Dailey is saying he will seek a re-match with Rep. Zack Space (D). Republicans are looking to state Sen. Bob Gibbs, however, since Dailey ran a poor campaign and managed only 40% of the vote in a district that was originally drawn as a safely Republican seat.

PA-11: Lackawanna County Commissioner Corey O’Brien (D) announced his primary opposition to scandal-tainted Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D). O’Brien has been publicly speculating about the race for months, and kicked off his effort by campaigning for 30 straight hours. Kanjorski reiterated his intention to seek a 14th term.

SC-5: House Budget Committee Chairman John Spratt (D) drew what could become a competitive challenge from state Sen. Mick Mulvaney (R), who officially announced his candidacy this week.

SD-AL: Term-limited Secretary of State Chris Nelson (R) announced that he will challenge Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D) next year. Nelson will first battle state Rep. Blake Curd for the GOP nomination. Herseth Sandlin is a decided favorite for re-election.

VA-5: It appears that Republicans successfully convinced their top choice of prospective candidates to challenge freshman Rep. Tom Perriello (D). State Sen. Bob Hurt (R) officially announced his congressional campaign. This is one of the GOP’s best conversion opportunities in the country and is a virtual must-win, if the Republicans hope to make major gains next year.

Governor Update

California: The Field Poll, a favorite of California Democrats for decades, has new numbers on the battle to succeed GOP Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger. The survey (9/18-10/5; 1,005 California voters in both English and Spanish – not all respondents receiving the same questions) gives former Gov. Jerry Brown the lead in his quest to regain the state’s top position, some 28 years after leaving office. The poll shows Brown having a 20 point lead over San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom in the Democratic primary, 47-27%. He leads Republicans Meg Whitman 50-29%; former Congressman Tom Campbell 48-27%, and state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner 50-25% in proposed general election match-ups. The long sampling period plus the questionnaire and language inconsistencies damage the survey’s reliability factor.

Iowa: Former four-term Gov. Terry Branstad (R) has formed a gubernatorial exploratory committee, signaling his intent to challenge Democratic incumbent Gov. Chet Culver (D) next year. Branstad enjoys big early leads in polling and makes this once seemingly secure Democratic post very competitive.

Nevada: The aforementioned Mason-Dixon Nevada poll also shows deep trouble for GOP Gov. Jim Gibbons, while Rory Reid, the Senate Majority Leader’s son and Clark County Commissioner, doesn’t fare much better. While the younger Reid would beat Gibbons 49-37% in a hypothetical ballot test, Reid would lose to former US federal judge Brian Sandoval (R) 50-33%. In a three-way match-up that includes Independent Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman, the trio breaks down into a 36-27-24% split in favor of Goodman, followed by Reid and Gibbons, respectively. Sandoval leads Gibbons in the Republican primary 41-20%.

New Jersey: Several new polls are out, all showing a continued close race, but incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine (D) still cannot come close to majority support despite pulling even or ahead in some ballot tests. The Democracy Corps (10/6-7; 614 likely NJ registered voters), a Democratic firm led by former Clinton advisor James Carville, scores it 43% for Corzine, 40% for Republican Chris Christie, and 14% for Independent Chris Daggett. Survey USA, during the almost identical period (10/5-7; 639 likely NJ registered voters) registers the same margin, but order of candidates is reversed. SUSA has Christie up 43-40%, with Daggett tallying an identical 14%. Rasmussen Reports (10/5; 750 likely NJ registered voters) shows Christie with a 47-44% lead over Gov. Corzine, with Daggett only at 6%.

Virginia: The Washington Post conducted a new survey of 1,001 “certain” Virginia voters from October 4-7, and found Republican Bob McDonnell has a 53-44% lead over Democrat Creigh Deeds. This survey gives McDonnell his largest lead since the flap about his controversial Masters thesis where he expressed views about women in the workplace, abortion and contraception.

Senate Update

Arkansas: New polls are bringing more bad news for vulnerable Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln. Rasmussen Reports (9/28; 500 likely AR registered voters) shows Lincoln trailing all of her prospective Republican opponents, despite the voting populace not being familiar with any of the GOP candidates. State Sen. Gilbert Baker (R-Conway) does the best, polling ahead of Lincoln 47-39%. Three other virtually unknown Republicans have either two or three point leads.

Delaware: Rasmussen Reports (9/30; 500 likely DE registered voters) shows At-Large Rep. Mike Castle (R) leading Attorney General Beau Biden (D) 47-42%. Biden is the son of Vice-President Joe Biden. Neither candidate has officially announced for the open Senate race.

Kentucky: Rasmussen Reports (9/30; 500 likely KY registered voters) is showing a dead heat for the open race to succeed retiring Sen. Jim Bunning (R). Attorney General Jack Conway (D) and Secretary of State Trey Grayson (R) draw to a 40-40% tie. Grayson leads Democratic Lt. Governor and 2004 Senatorial nominee Dan Mongiardo 44-37%. When paired with the other GOP contender, Dr. Rand Paul (R), son of Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX-14), Conway leads 42-38% but Mongiardo trails 43-38%.

Nevada: Nevada GOP chair Sue Lowden officially announced her Senatorial bid against Majority Leader Harry Reid (D). She joins former Secretary of State candidate Danny Tarkanian in the Republican primary field. Polls show both Lowden and Tarkanian leading Reid among Silver State voters.

Pennsylvania: Quinnipiac University (9/22-28; 1,100 registered PA voters) posts GOP challenger Pat Toomey to a 43-42% lead over party-switching Sen. Arlen Specter (D). Specter’s job approval is an upside down 44:48%, and 52% of the sampling universe does not feel he deserves a sixth term in office. Specter leads his Democratic primary opponent, however. The Senator enjoys a 44-25% lead over Delaware County Rep. Joe Sestak. In a Toomey-Sestak general election pairing, the Republican leads 38-35%.

South Carolina: Rock Hill, SC attorney Chad McGowan (D) is telling news sources that he will announce his Senatorial candidacy against first-term Sen. Jim DeMint (R) later this month. McGowan reportedly has personal financial resources that he is willing to invest in his campaign. DeMint is the prohibitive favorite for re-election in what is proving to be one of the most Republican states in the country,.

House Update

AZ-1: Freshman Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D) who swept to victory last November in what was previously a Republican seat, is about to draw major competition for her first re-election. Former state Senate Majority Leader Rusty Bowers officially filed a congressional exploratory committee, the first step to entering the race. The 1st district covers the majority of eastern Arizona. It is the geographic size of the state of Pennsylvania, and has only one city, Flagstaff, with more than 50,000 people.

NH-2: Moderate former Rep. Charlie Bass (R-NH-2), who lost to liberal Rep. Paul Hodes (D) in 2006, filed a congressional exploratory committee, signaling his increasing interest in attempting a political comeback. Radio host Jennifer Horn, the 2008 GOP nominee, is also planning to run. Hodes is vacating the seat to run for the Senate. Should Bass pursue his comeback, he would join ex-Reps. Steve Chabot (R-OH-1), Ed Case (D-HI-1), Steve Pearce (R-NM-2), and possibly David Davis (R-TN-1) as former members attempting to return to the House.

NV-3: Businessman John Guedry, who only in the last three weeks announced he would run for Congress, has already abandoned his campaign. This could lead to former state Sen. Joe Heck ending his long shot bid for Governor and instead dropping back to run for Congress to challenge freshman liberal Rep. Dina Titus (D).

NY-23: Gov. David Paterson (D) has officially called the replacement congressional special election for November 3rd, concurrent with the regular municipal elections. A brand new Siena University poll (9/27-29; 622 likely voters) gives Republican nominee Dede Scozzafava 35-28-16% lead over Democrat Bill Owens and Conservative Doug Hoffman. This contrasts with a Basswood Research survey (9/17; 300 registered NY-23 voters), commissioned by Hoffman supporter Club for Growth, which showed Scozzafava’s lead to be only 20-17-17%. Both the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and Hoffman’s campaign are running attack ads against Scozzafava, both hitting her for supporting certain NY state tax hikes.

OR-5: State Rep. Scott Bruun is preparing to enter the race against 1st term US Rep. Kurt Schrader (D). Bruun ran for Congress once before, in 1996, against Rep. Earl Blumenauer in the heavily Democratic 3rd district. The 5th is a marginal seat, making Bruun’s candidacy much more viable.

PA-4: Attorney Keith Rothfus (R) will officially become a candidate against sophomore Rep. Jason Altmire (D). House Minority Whip Mike Turzai (R) is saying that he, too, is considering running for Congress.

WV-1: State Senate Minority Whip Clark Barnes (R) is planning to announce his congressional candidacy against 14-term Rep. Alan Mollohan (D). The Congressman has been under a FBI investigation for several years for his securing earmarks for a non-profit organization run by his former staff members, in addition to scouring his wife’s real estate dealings. Since the investigation became public, Mollohan has continued romping to easy victories, garnering 64% in 2006 and being unopposed in 2008.

Governor Update

Arizona: Rasmussen Reports (9/27; 500 likely AZ registered voters) basically confirms the Public Policy Polling data that we reported upon last week. According to Rasmussen, Democratic Attorney General Terry Goddard leads Gov. Jan Brewer (R) 42-35%. PPP scored the race 46-36% in Goddard’s favor.

California: Rasmussen also polled the California electoral (9/24; 500 registered CA voters) but with a very small sample size. The results reveal ex-Governor and current Attorney General Jerry Brown (D) with a lead over former eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R). RR pegs Brown to a 44-35% advantage. Against San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom, however, the situation changes. In that match-up, Whitman takes a 41-35% lead.

New Jersey: Quinnipiac University (9/22-28; 1,188 registered NJ voters) also conducted another poll of the 2009 New Jersey Governor’s race and though they show the race closing, Gov. Jon Corzine (D) remains under 40%. The ballot test breaks 43-39-12% in favor of Republican Chris Christie over Corzine and Independent Chris Daggett. The Corzine negative attacks against Christie appear to be working, as the former US Attorney’s favorability index has dropped to 38:38% positive to negative. Corzine’s favorable rating remains buried at 34:56%.

Pennsylvania: Quinnipiac similarly just reported the results of their Keystone State poll (9/22-28; 1,100 PA registered voters). It provides very good news for GOP Attorney General Tom Corbett. He leads Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato (D) by a surprisingly large 47-28% margin. He tops state Auditor Jack Wagner (D) 44-29%. Corbett leads Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-PA-6) 42-13% in the GOP primary. On the Democratic side, Onorato has a slight 14-12-11% edge over Montgomery County Commissioner and former Congressman Joe Hoeffel and Wagner.

Virginia: Several polls continue to show Republican Bob McDonnell maintaining his lead over Democratic nominee Creigh Deeds. Rasmussen Reports (9/29; 500 registered VA voters) records the McDonnell advantage at 51-42%. Public Policy Polling (9/25-28; 576 registered VA voters) posts the race at 48-43%, McDonnell over Deeds; and Survey USA (9/25-28; 631 registered VA voters) gives the Republican an even greater advantage, 55-41%.

Vermont: Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie (R) announced his candidacy to replace retiring GOP Gov. Jim Douglas. The Democratic nature of Vermont suggests the eventual Dem nominee will be the favorite, but Douglas did manage to win four consecutive two-year terms under the Republican banner.

Senate Update

Iowa: Rep. Bruce Braley’s (R-IA-1) name is again popping up as a potential challenger to Sen. Chuck Grassley (R), but don’t believe that he’ll run. Rasmussen Reports (9/22; 500 likely IA voters) just completed a poll that shows Grassley remaining as the state’s most popular elected official. Grassley enjoys a favorability ratio of 68:30%. He leads former state Rep. Bob Krause (D) 56-30% in the only ballot test question included.

Massachusetts: Now that it is politically expedient for Democrats to do so, the Massachusetts legislature passed a new law that allows Gov. Deval Patrick (D) to fill by interim appointment any Senate vacancy. Making an appointment upon signing the bill, Patrick chose former Democratic National Committee chairman Paul Kirk to succeed the late Sen. Edward Kennedy (D). Republicans asked for a court injunction to bar the appointment. Kirk immediately said he would serve only on a caretaker basis and not run in the December/ January special election that has already been scheduled. Attorney General Martha Coakley (D) is quickly becoming the prohibitive favorite to win the seat via the election process. Former Boston Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling, in an announcement that generated little surprise, publicly stated that he will not be a candidate.

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South Carolina’s Joe Wilson is becoming a national Congressman. Taking advantage of his national “15 minutes of fame”, Rep. Wilson is now positioned to at least partially fill a desperate void in the conservative movement — that of principled inside leader.

The Republican landslide of 1994 did not happen over night. Years of work from many dedicated people in and outside of Congress, joined with the proper political climate, propelled conservatives into the majority for the first time in generations. With Newt Gingrich setting strategy and developing themes, Tom DeLay and Vin Weber implementing the group’s plans, Bob Walker challenging the Democratic leadership with his great parliamentary command of legislative procedure, Jack Kemp laying down parameters for economic conservatism and Dick Armey doing the same for social issues, the House GOP became majority-ready, and finally won the opportunity to serve.

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Promoted from the Diaries by Neil Stevens

Senate Update

Colorado: A new poll again confirms appointed Sen. Michael Bennet’s (D) political weakness. Rasmussen Reports (9/9; 500 CO registered voters) shows the liberal Bennet leading Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck (R) 43-37%, but trailing Aurora city Councilman Ryan Frazier (R) 40-39%. The campaign’s newest entrants, former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D) and ex-Lt. Governor Jane Norton (R) were not tested.

Kentucky: Research 2000 (8/31-9/2; 600 registered KY voters), polling for the leftwing Daily Kos national blog, stakes GOP Secretary of State Trey Grayson to a lead against both top Democratic candidates. Versus Lt. Governor Dan Mongiardo, Grayson leads 45-41%. When paired with Attorney General Jack Conway, the Republican scores a similar 46-40% advantage. In the Democratic primary, Mongiardo has a seven point lead, 37-30%, over Conway.

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Promoted from the diaries by Brian Faughnan.

Senate Update

Arkansas: Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) received bad news from a Public Policy Polling survey (8/21-24; 784 registered Arkansas voters). Against three virtually unknown candidates, Lincoln scores virtually even with them, and well below 50%. Paired with state Senator Gilbert Baker (R), Lincoln trails 42-40%; with businessman Curtis Coleman (R), Lincoln’s deficit is one point, 41-40%; against Afghan War veteran Tom Cotton (R), Lincoln takes the barest of leads, 40-39%. this is a surprising GOP conversion opportunity.

Colorado: Despite leading appointed Sen. Michael Bennet (D) 42-39% in the latest Public Policy Polling study (8/14-16; 969 Colorado registered voters), former Rep. and 2006 gubernatorial nominee Bob Beauprez (R) announced he would not run for the Senate. Former Lt. Governor Jane Norton (R) is telling media outlets and supporters that she will decide about her own candidacy in 30 days. Aurora at-large city Councilman Ryan Frazier and Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck are the two official GOP candidates.

Illinois: Former Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman (D) announced that he will challenge state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias and Chicago Urban League President Cheryle Jackson in the Democratic Senatorial primary. Hoffman immediately hired Barack Obama consultant David Axelrod to plan his campaign. Republican Rep. Mark Kirk has the inside track to the GOP nomination.

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Senate Update

California: As expected, former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (R) announced that she is forming an exploratory committee to determine her viability against leftist Sen. Barbara Boxer (D).

Colorado: Public Policy Polling (8/14-16; 969 registered CO voters) again is reporting unfavorable numbers for appointed Sen. Michael Bennet (D). Sporting a poor 31:38% favorable to unfavorable job approval ratio, Bennet trails former GOP Rep. Bob Beauprez 42-39%. He leads Aurora at-large City Councilman Ryan Frazier (R) 38-33% and Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck (R) 39-35%.

Florida (appointment): Gov. Charlie Crist (R) is narrowing down his list of prospective appointees to vacating Sen. Mel Martinez’s seat. Since Crist is running himself, he needs a person who will only serve as a caretaker for the final 17 months of the term. Surprisingly, Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R-FL-21) appeared on the list, but removed himself from consideration in order to remain in the House. Rep. Bill Young (R-FL-10), who is serving his 39th year in Congress, is also being mentioned. Young, 78, has already announced his intention to seek re-election to a 16th consecutive term in the House. Former Attorney General Jim Smith (R) and ex-US Attorney Bob Martinez (R) are also reported to be on Crist’s short list.

Florida (election): Two new Florida polls were just released. Rasmussen Reports (8/17; 1,000 likely FL voters; 470 Republicans) gives Gov. Charlie Crist a 53-31% lead over former FL House Speaker Marco Rubio in the Republican primary. Crist would lead Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-FL-17) 48-29% in a hypothetical general election. Rubio leads Meek by a similar 43-30%. Quinnipiac University (8/12-17; 1,136 registered FL voters) scores the GOP primary at 55-26%, Crist over Rubio, but did not poll the general election. For the first time, Quinnipiac detected President Obama’s job approval rating going into negative numbers. This particular Florida sample rated him 47:48% favorable to unfavorable. While the sample supports, 58-36%, the notion of a government health insurance program, by a margin of 35-62%, they oppose enacting a healthcare reform package in Congress that is supported only by Democrats.

Illinois: Chicago businessman Chris Kennedy, son of Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., announced that he would not run for either Senator or Governor next year. This means the Democratic field will likely narrow to only two major candidates: state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias and Chicago Urban League president Cheryle Jackson. The winner of the early February 2nd primary will almost assuredly face GOP Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL-10), who leads both Democrats in early polling. The 8/11 Rasmussen Reports survey (a small sample of 500 IL registered voters) has Kirk ahead of Giannoulias 41-38%; and leading Jackson 47-30%.

Kentucky: Survey USA just finished polling the Blue Grass State (8/15-17; 1,944 registered KY voters; 516 Republicans; 647 Democrats) and found GOP Secretary of State Trey Grayson leading both major Democratic candidates. Grayson tops Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo, the 2004
Senatorial nominee against retiring Sen. Jim Bunning (R), 46-40%, and leads Attorney General Jack Conway (D) 44-37%. In the primaries, Grayson leads Rand Paul, son of US Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX-14) and former presidential candidate, 37-26% on the Republican side. For the Democrats, Mongiardo enjoys a 39-31% lead over Conway.

House Update

FL-8: Florida House Speaker Larry Cretul is indicating that he will not challenge freshman Rep. Alan Grayson (D). Republicans are not without a stable of candidates here, though, as former House Speaker and Senate Republican Leader Dan Webster and Orange County Mayor Rich Crotty remain possible candidates.

IL-10: Moderate Republican state Rep. Beth Coulson will announce her congressional candidacy on August 24. Her presence in the race gives the Republicans a shot at keeping one of their most marginal seats. Rep. Mark Kirk (R) is vacating to run for the Senate. Democrats have 2006-8 nominee Dan Seals, state Rep. Julie Hamos, and attorney Elliot Richardson.

IN-3: Dr. Tom Hayhurst (D), who challenged conservative Rep. Mark Souder (R) in 2006 (losing 54-46%), announced that he would seek a re-match in 2010. Last election, Democratic nominee Mike Montagano lost to Souder 55-40%, in what was originally touted as a competitive race. Souder, now tested in two consecutive elections, will begin this next campaign as the prohibitive favorite. The Congressman was originally elected in 1994.

MO-4: State Sen. Bill Stouffer filed congressional exploratory committee papers with the Federal Election Commission this week. Stouffer would represent the first significant challenge House Armed Services Committee chairman Ike Skelton (D) has faced in 28 years. Skelton, originally elected in 1976, has averaged 68.3% of the vote over 17 elections. The district is becoming increasingly Republican, however. John McCain scored a 61-38% victory over President Obama here last November.

NC-8: Former Rep. Robin Hayes (R) announced he would not seek a re-match with freshman Rep. Larry Kissell (D), the man who beat him last November. Republicans are hoping to recruit 2008 gubernatorial nominee Pat McCrory into the congressional race.

PA-6: Two potentially strong Democratic candidates announced they would not seek the open congressional seat (Rep. Jim Gerlach running for Governor). State Sen. Andy Dinniman, commonly viewed as the Democrats’ strongest candidate, and 2008 nominee Bob Roggio now both say they won’t run for Congress in 2010. Former Philadelphia Inquirer editorial writer Doug Pike, at this point in time, is unopposed for the Democratic nomination. State Rep. Curt Schroder and Chester County Recorder of Deeds Ryan Costello are announced Republican candidates.

Governor Update

Florida: The previously referenced Quinnipiac poll (see Florida Senate election) gives GOP Attorney General Bill McCollum a 38-34% lead over Florida Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink on the gubernatorial ballot test question.

Nevada: Federal Judge Brian Sandoval (R) announced that he will resign his seat on the bench in all likelihood to run for Governor. GOP Gov. Jim Gibbons faces martial difficulties, scandal, and big budget problems, which have driven his hard re-elect score to 11%. Rory Reid, son of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and a Clark County Commissioner, is a possible Democratic candidate.

Pennsylvania: Montgomery County Commissioner and former US Congressman Joe Hoeffel (D-PA-13) is confirming that he is commissioning a poll to test his viability in the Governor’s race. The liberal Hoeffel vacated his congressional seat in 2004 to challenge then-Republican US Senator Arlen Specter, and was beaten 53-42%. Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato, state Auditor Jack Wagner, and Philadelphia businessman Tom Knox are the leading Democratic gubernatorial candidates. Attorney General Tom Corbett and Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-PA-6) are the top Republicans in the race.

South Carolina: House Minority Leader Harry Ott (D) ended his gubernatorial campaign this week and endorsed state Sen. Vince Sheheen in the Democratic primary. Scandal-tainted Gov. Mark Sanford (R) is term-limited. Republicans will have a crowded primary, but the eventual run-off winner will be the prohibitive favorite to win the general election.

Texas: Austin kooky liberal state Sen. Kirk Watson (D) announced that he will not run for Governor next year in order to seek re-election to his legislative post. Gov. Rick Perry and Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison are doing battle for the Republican nomination. Former Ambassador to both Japan and Australia Tom Schieffer (D), brother of CBS news correspondent Bob Schieffer, and country singer Kinky Friedman are the only Democrats officially in the race. The eventual Republican nominee will be the prohibitive favorite in the general election.

Virginia: The Washington Post released the results of their Taylor Nelson Sofres poll (8/11-14; 1,002 VA adults) and they too peg Republican Bob McDonnell to a large lead over Democratic state Sen. Creigh Deeds. According to the poll, 54% of those surveyed would support McDonnell compared to 39% who favor Deeds. Surprisingly, by a margin of 47-45%, people generally believe the Commonwealth of Virginia is on the right track. Most state surveys are
showing heavy majorities believing things have gotten seriously off course. The Washington Post poll is the fifth consecutive study that gives McDonnell the lead.

Wisconsin: Gov. Jim Doyle (D) will soon announce that he will not seek a third term in office. Lt. Governor Barbara Lawton becomes the early leader among Democrats, but it is unlikely that
she will have a free ride on the Democratic side. Rep. Ron Kind (D-WI-3) is telling supporters he is considering a gubernatorial run. Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker and former Rep. Mark Neumann are battling for the Republican nomination. Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI-1) announced he will stay out of the Governor’s race and seek re-election to the US House. The open Governor’s race remains in the Toss-up column for the next election.