Probably no one has soured on Trump who used to support him more than Mark Levin. On his radio program today, Levin had an interesting take on why Trump is probably skipping the debate, and it makes a lot of sense. Per the Right Scoop, Levin says that he thinks that Trump skipping the debate has nothing to do with Kelly, or with Trump playing the media, it is all about Trump making a political calculation:

Trump made a calculated political decision. Even his supporters don’t give him credit for being smart enough. He made a calculated political decision, not to avoid Megyn Kelly, but to avoid the debate format where he might be the target, when the polls show him leading in Iowa just days before the caucus.

He’s where he wants to be, he believes and his campaign believes. Why go up there and duke it out with Cruz or Rubio or anybody else? Why be the target?

So you get out of that environment and then Cruz is the target.

This was never a fight between Fox and Trump. All the analysts have missed it. All the commentators have missed it. It’s ‘how brilliant’, ‘he’s controlling the media’…no he’s controlling you! He’s marketing himself. He’s branding himself. So he’s stepping out of that environment, it’s too risky, with just a few days to go.

And the people of Iowa have to decide if they want to be treated like that or not, or disrespected, or if they think this is a brilliant political move.

But this isn’t a fight between Fox and Trump.

There's probably a lot to this take. If this is really a fight between Fox and Trump, then why would O'Reilly have Trump on Fox News last night in order to talk about the fight they're involved in? As someone (and I can't remember who, or I would give credit) noted on Twitter, How in the world can Fox and Trump televise a war that they're involved in?

The sole good political reason for Trump to do this is to make Cruz the central target in tonight's debate, with him not being on the stage. And whether Trump meant it or not, that's clearly what he's accomplished.