Well, this is a shocker. This is definitely an outlier, but it is the first national poll since October to show someone other than Donald Trump in first place, and the first ever to show Cruz in first place. Per NBC/WSJ, the top line results are as follows:
- Ted Cruz - 28%
- Donald Trump - 26%
- Marco Rubio - 17%
- John Kasich - 11%
- Ben Carson - 10%
- Jeb Bush - 4%
There's a lot of reason to have skepticism of this poll, given that it is 400 LVs and national polling is pretty inaccurate at this stage of the race. That said, pretty much all the national polling that's been done to this point has 500 LVs or less and we have been treating them seriously, so there's no reason to automatically dismiss this one more than the others, except for the fact that it's so far out of line from what we've seen before.
At the end of the day, we can at the very least expect some entertaining histrionics from Donald Trump as he pretends to know the objective difference between a good poll and a bad poll, beyond "A good poll has me in first, a bad one does not."