After skipping virtually the entire primary calendar after New Hampshire, and then being embarrassed by Ted Cruz in the one state he did campaign in (Michigan), John Kasich has at long last, after roughly half the delegates have been pledged, won a state, barely. The networks are calling Kasich’s home state of Ohio for the sitting governor, tracking what recent polling showed.
As it turns out, Kasich’s victory, although it will keep a relatively large pile of delegates out of Trump’s stubby fingers, will likely increase the odds of Trump getting the nomination.
See, Kasich is almost definitely going to be mathematically eliminated from the nomination tonight regardless of this win in Ohio. So he has literally no chance of winning. And he knows this. In fact, he’s known it for some time. This is all about increasing his pile of delegates so that he’ll be able to wring concessions out of Trump when it comes to convention time.
If Kasich had lost Ohio tonight, he would have had to sulk his way home, and wouldn’t have been able to make a credible pitch for staying in the race. Probably, he would have stayed in the race to fuel his colossal ego anyway, but voters would have begun deserting him for Cruz and/or Trump.
But with a win tonight, Kasich will likely stay in this thing all the way to the convention, and will find suckers with money who will help him do it. That reduces the chances Ted Cruz has of winning states like California (which are winner take all) and thus either reaching 1,237 or preventing Trump from doing so.
So, congratulations to Governor Kasich for ending your astronomical losing streak. You’re now only 50 delegates or so behind Rubio for third place.