A new California poll was just released which shows an absolute dead heat between Trump and Cruz in California. It seems increasingly likely that Trump needs to win California to reach 1,237; Cruz definitely needs it to even have a chance at 1,237. And right now, with Kasich still in the race, it's a toss up.
Per Politico, among likely voters, Trump leads Cruz 36-35, a statistically insignificant lead. Among registered voters, Trump leads 37-30. Kasich gets 12 per cent of registered voters.
Trump leads his opponents in most areas of the state. Cruz tends to do well with conservatives voters in the Central Valley, according to the poll.
Cruz gains on Trump and makes it a closer race when looking at those who are most likely to vote in the state’s June 7 primary: Trump and Cruz then run neck-and-neck, earning 36 and 35 percent support, respectively.
Were Trump to win the nomination outright after California’s primary, more than a quarter of registered Republicans in the state — 27 percent — say they would refuse to vote for him in the general election.
There's a reason to be skeptical of polling of Republican primary in California, if for no other reason than that it's been so long since California mattered to this extent, I don't think anyone really knows what the electorate looks like. Adding in the geographical and population challenges of polling California in general and you have a recipe for potential catastrophe.
However, this is one of several recent polls that essentially show that California is a tie between Trump and Cruz at this point. If Kasich runs out of money or quits before California, Cruz has to be considered the favorite.