« BACK  |  PRINT

RS

MEMBER DIARY

Five (Fairly) Short Points

By: Michael Hammond (Diary)  |  July 28th, 2011 at 11:23 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

(1)  House Republicans are walking into an enormous trap. The Boehner plan is sufficiently similar to the Reid plan, in virtually all important respects, that its passage will lead to the following compromise:  

  •  The adoption of Boehner’s ten years of sham cuts,which will be ephemeral beyond fiscal year 2012. Even John McCain said tonight that Gramm-Rudman (whose “sequestration” provisions are the enforcement mechanism for Boehner) became worthless because Congress just started declaring emergencies.
  • A commission which will report out large tax increases which cannot be filibustered. The “deciders” on the commission will be six Pelosi/Reid people and one squish Republican, who will be corralled into submission by:
  • A “trigger” which will make the pressure currently being applied to Congress seem small by comparison.

(2) Unless you can guarantee that it will go to the states, a guarantee of a losing vote on the balanced budget amendment is worthless.

(3) Dick Morris is correct that if Tuesday comes and goes, with only a shut-down of unessential government agencies, the American people will see Obama’s fear-mongering for what it is.

(4) Furthermore, as 2008 taught us, the GOP can sell all of its principles and spend the better part of a trillion dollars and the stock market will still continue to fall –- particularly since Standard & Poor’s is about to downgrade the U.S. for being too timid in debt reduction.

(5) Finally, Obama is currently reeling from his poor stewardship. For Republicans to capitulate and give him a “compromise” will reset him on a glide path to reelection. The liberal media is currently “spinning” that Republicans have won, but, after they lose, their surrender will be reported for what it was.

by Michael E. Hammond, former General Counsel Senate Steering Committee 1978-89.

Tags: ,

COMMENTS

POSTING RULES  |  LOGIN TO COMMENT  |  REGISTER TODAY
  • http://www.usdebateboard.com usdebateboard

    by putting it people’s heads that it’s Republicans who have to save Obama’s bacon, instead of asking what Obama intends to to about the $5T hole Democrats have dug in 2.5 years.

    It’s a meme the MSM swallows whole.

  • cordpt

    Dick Morris has no idea what he’s talking about.

    If you don’t raise the debt ceiling, you have money to pay the interest on the debt and part of the entitlement programs (SS, Medicare, Medicaid). Nothing else will be paid. The troops won’t get paid, the FBI won’t get paid. There won’t be money for highways or basic inspections. And Obama will be the one deciding what will get paid or not. The idea that this is ’96 all over again, with a few museums and libraries closed and the National Weather Agency or whatever is called shut down, is simply idiotic.

    • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

      You can read the attendant article here.

      Will lots of agencies be shut down? Sure. A bad thing? Only if your testosterone count is as low as Bohenner and McConnell.

      • JSobieski

        That money is not impacted by the debt ceiling, so the SS money doesn’t even need to come out of incoming revenues.

      • cordpt

        This is my last reply to you if you don’t. I’m too old and tired to engage in conversations with people who talk like uneducated 11 years old. I welcome disagreements as long as they don’t get personal and no.

        To the substance, there are 3 problems with that chart:
        - “essential” defense means that plenty of troops (how many exactly?) won’t get paid
        - Medicaid is not included
        - it’s only for August. The Treasury will have about $55 billion in cash in early August which will help significantly. And Geithner can extend the DISP, which would allow him to get $7billion more from the CSRDF.

        It also assumes the interest on rates will stay constant (but if the debt limit isn’t raised, the rating agencies will downgrade and the interest payments will raise sharply), but so did I.

        As I’ve said: If you don

        • Aaron Gardner

          Also, aren’t you being hypocritical to request people not name call and then follow that up with comparing your opponent to an “uneducated 11 years old”?

          You are such a joke.

        • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

          in the world of “uneducated” you’re the crown prince. And you’re a whiner to boot. I’ve just figured it out, you’re JB’s sock puppet.

          A downgrade is coming down the track at full speed and it has nothing to do with whether a plan get’s passed or not. Oh, and do you think that cost is in JB’s plan that won’t pass the Senate?

          We’re looking at a train wreck happening now, no matter what gets passed in the House. And since JB’s plan has already been declared DOA by Democrats, explain to me the wisdom of passing this piece of crap. And, just how is it different than CCB or the Ryan Budget, neither of which you approve of?

          Oh, and while we’re at it, take note of JS’ comment just above.

          And please don’t take me off your “reply list”. Please. I won’t sleep.

        • steve53

          You wrote: “As I

      • cordpt

        Investors better hope Wall Street number crunchers are correct that the U.S. Treasury might have an extra week or so beyond Aug. 2 before a cash-flow crunch.

        Ahahah, it seems he doesn’t take his own articles too seriously. He’s more pessimistic than me, the last Stone McCarthy report indicates that the Treasury will run out of cash by August 15.

        Anyway, the futures are already in a free fall and the dollar is plummeting. If this keeps going once the European markets open, I strongly suspect they’ll pass something tomorrow. Of course, thanks to the stupidity of the Ron Paul&friends sect, it’ll be a lot worse than what we could have gotten.

        • rightwingmom52

          You’re accusing those of us who oppose the Boehner plan of being part of the Ron Paul & friends sect? If that’s the case, I just have to wonder how much longer you’ll be here.

          • cordpt

            But I suspect I’ve been around for longer than you, no?

            Don’t take things so personally. When I write those things, I’m rarely thinking about “you” as in you and other people here; I’m thinking about some politicians in Washington and I don’t have much patience for figurative language. I fully agree with my old friend Erick when he wrote that “Friends are allowed to disagree. It

          • rightwingmom52

            So you’ve been around longer than I have, and Erick is your old friend with whom you disagree. Good for you.

            Then you cite an article that refers to the “Willfully Ignorant” but admonish me not to take it personally.

            Then you caution me against an “over-emotional” reaction with some condescending, sanctimonious advice that all I need to do is…

            I read your reply and then clarified what I meant in my comment. I disagree with your explanation, and apparently so do others.

          • cordpt

            You’re wrong. Here’s my reply to your clarification:
            http://www.redstate.com/erick/2011/07/26/get-on-the-line-to-hold-the-line/#comment-119573

            I know it’s very intuitive to believe that, as you wrote,

          • rightwingmom52

            “If you can

          • mirac777

            There are leftist trolls, RINO trolls, and just plain “Lacking in any common sense” trolls.

            Then there are some trolls who encompass the whole spectrum of trolls as in : We are approaching $15 trillion dollars of debt due to a bloated government, so we should just give said government 3 or 4 trillion more borrowed dollars to….” Save our credit rating and the world”.

            Seems to me I learned how ignorant supporting that scenario is.. about 40 years ago at age 12. Sadly, many people have to be deemed to be perpetually stuck in the denial of reality, and unteachable today. They prove that just about every day right in here by making statements in line with my 2nd para here.

            PS; Dick Morris is 100% correct as in wallstreeters, credit agencies and big bankers were all summoned to the White House recently- and what did we see ? More fearmongering propaganda from the very folks Obama and Liberals gave billions of taxpayer dollars to in the form of bailouts.Yes RINOS and assorted progressives also helped out in those bailouts. And we are seeing it repeated in the false flag fearmongering to a tee, that is being called a debt ceiling debate. If this sint true, the why did Reid and Liberal tyrants refuse to debate the only real solution here: CC and B.

          • rightwingmom52

            http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Douglas_Holtz-Eakin

            I don’t think it helps cordpt much when the author article he keep posting here and on other diaries to support his position has major ties to McCain & McConnell.

          • steve53

            cordpt wrote, quoting Prof. Douglas Holtz-Eakin: “…a Coalition of the Willfully Ignorant…..claim you don

        • cordpt

          It was taken just a few minutes ago:
          ES

          • cordpt

            http://postimage.org/image/17gjidmv8/

          • Aaron Gardner

            And why are you still replying? Can’t even hold the line on your own threats?

          • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

            It’s called mark to market.

    • mirac777

      and proves it there. For cordpt, I must point out one easy point about the fearmongering in his post: Ray LaHood was in TV yest. talking about how he had to furlough 4000 FAA workers. When he was asked if airline safety is affected, he knew he was in a bind. He stated no way will it be dangerous to fly, safety will still be 100% SAFE. He then says oh it is just “technical and research folks who are laid off because Congress hasn’t dealt with the FAA tax/authorization issue yet. So here we have 4000 FAA employees who have been proven to be non-factors in keeping Americans safe when flying. The FAA is a REGULATORY agency and does not create products for sale, so why in the hell do they have technology and research employees? Right after that LaHood echoes cordpt’s post: “We just need to pass a clean debt ceiling raise period.” No matter how this shakes out our supposed AAA credit rating will fall. A realist would be asking how in the hell we have an AAA rating in the first place with our massive debt load of today.

      That is 4000 FAA employees who could sit out work indefinitely and have no adverse consequences in Airline safety. Fact is this same pattern of bloated usless redundant employees in the federal government is a massive pattern we see in EVERY AGENCY. A forced trimming of payrolls for all agencies will prove to Americans just how unnecesary many of the fed workers really are, and that will have Americans demanding their termination. THAT is why Democrats and Obama refuse to install CC and B, or even debate it in the Senate- as I am betting that 85% (minimum) of Fed employees vote Liberal-fake democrat today.Dems are scrambling to protect every Liberal vote they can right now. Many of those same voters are old Democratic voters who have been voting D for decades.( when the Dem party wasnt full of Liberal Socialists and Communists)

      The issue is cutting the bloated government down to size to cut the deficit totals of the last 4 years of Obama and the Dems-any moron can look at how our deficits have doubled, then tripled ever since the Liberal loons took over both houses in 2007. Before that from 2000-2006 deficits averaged under $500 b. The 2011 deficit will push $2 trillion dollars when the truth comes out. That is simply ludicrous.

  • http://www.ipsnational.com Craig Whitelock

    for Republicans and Conservatives. The only “trapping” being done, is of Reid and Obama. The American public, many of which have plugged in to this debate, will see it for what it is, which is the capitulation by Reid/Obama of leadership. Particularly Obama, who has not once offered a constructive plan or blueprint from which the Democrats can rally around. It’s clear that our POTUS is an empty suit, and when the Boehner plan is signed into law it will be even more evident to all but the most politically disconnected Americans.

    The Senate vote on a Balanced Budget amendment is not a waste of time. It is a wise political move, which will shine the bright light of incompetence on those who vote against this amendment. Who in their right mind can argue in favor of continued deficit spending in the current environment? Those arguing that deficits do not matter have been defrocked, and no longer control the debate.

    Not only will America see Obama’s fear mongering for what it is, they will also see that their lives do not change on a daily basis from reduced spending. While I do not advocate a shutdown, the consequences might not be a bad outcome in this current political climate.

    Our credit worthiness will not be downgraded. We will maintain our AAA status, and S&P/Moody’s will not play this card, as there will be too much pressure from the Obama administration to maintain our current status.

    Republicans/Conservatives are winning the debate. We are not capitulating and providing Obama with a soft landing to a second term. The American people see this man as a Charlatan, correctly I believe, given how he has handled himself in this crisis.

    Your cynicism clearly shows that you do not trust Americans to see and believe what is actually happening in this debate.

  • boballab

    watch out for.

    As you put it in point 4 S&P and the other two big agencies are looking at downgrading the US if they do not cut enough spending (S&P said they are 50/50 as of July 14th). S&P stated they need to see a minimum of $4 Trillion over 10 years in cuts to keep a AAA rating for the US. The Boehner and Reid plans are short of that figure.

    If the House passes the Boehner plan and the Senate the Reid Plan that will lead to a conference where they will mash together a compromise of the two plans. From there the House GOP fractures with the Tea Party back folks going no way and the House Dems voting for it. Between the House Dems and the non Tea Party GOPers that compromise passes to the Senate where Reid bullies it through with help from Mclain and McConnel. From there Obama has what he wants so badly: GOP cover for the economy.

    Obama and the MSM will frame the compromise bill as the GOP backed bill and state that if the economy tanks it’s their fault.

    So what happens if after that compromise goes into effect, raising the debt ceiling, and the Big 3 rating agencies still downgrade due to not enough cuts?

    The stock market tanks, the shaky economy goes with it and interest rates rise. Now who do you think the MSM is going to blame then…

    So yeah pass the Boehner plan and hope that there is no downgrade because if there is the GOP is going to own it and sink the 2012 elections for them.

    You see arguing for the Boehner plan is like arguing for a certain set of deck chairs to be re-arranged on the Titanic over another set.

    • http://www.usdebateboard.com usdebateboard

      and the movers and shakers in the financial world to pretend to spit up a hairball that only capitulating to Obama could stop.

  • inovrmihd

    What is preventing Michael’s predictions from comming true? Boehner was willing to accept the initial McConnell plan (2.4 trillion for 3 symbolic votes), so why won’t the house end up passing a watered down bill?

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

    declare victory on the debt ceiling. We can get a better result in September over the budget when here will be no foreign bondholder element.

    • californiagold

      If the Reid/Boehner plan becomes law, after 10 years the national debt be around $900 billion less than it otherwise would have been. That means that the US debt will be around $22-$25 trillion (plus or minus a few billion). And that’s if the cuts being proposed actually materialize.

      Great work guys !…no wonder John Boehner cries so much.

      • Flagstaff

        to win the next election so we can actually do the things we want to do. It just isn’t possible today, so it’s time to use some strategy to position ourselves for next year.

        • rightwingmom52

          but what’s so frustrating is I think we would been way ahead already if Boehner & Co had simply handled this better. Ticking off the Tea Party and conservatives was not a good move and will most likely come back to haunt the GOP. It’s going to take a lot of convincing and showing some backbone between now and Nov. 2012 to regain their trust and in turn their votes. I pray to God the GOP can do it, and I’m not giving up, but now we’re going to have to battle the Democrats, the establishment and a stronger call for a third party because of the disillusionment in the belief that this time would be different.

          Unfortunately, I have no trust in any of my reps. I think Sessions caved, and I never had any doubt about Bachus’ and Shelby’s lack of spine.

          • Flagstaff

            People like Sessions and others (I won’t irresponsibly mention any other names) tick me off when they tell us lies that are hard to detect, or they tell us obvious lies that insult us in their brazenness.

            Now even Flimsey Graham has become a spending hawk.

            I say that the Tea Party folks should give all the freshmen congressmen a pass on this vote–didn’t really matter how they voted, the important thing was to preserve support for the party in 2012. It’s pretty tough when the press is 100% behind the other side.

            Eldridge Cleaver: “The press is so powerful in its image-making role that it can make a criminal look like he’s the victim and make the victim look like he’s the criminal.”

      • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

        these battles is what is gained now. For now, we won the tax battle and the short term battle and we have so far protected America from a President that threatened bondholders and seniors and the disabled.

    • Flagstaff

      A few minutes ago I wrote:

      “My personal message to all who want to die on the current CC and B bridge is, The prize is NOT to pass something to the Senate that will go no further, nor to pass something that makes the statement ‘We insist on the impossible before we will raise the debt ceiling, whether it matters or not,’ the prize is TO WIN CONTROL OF THE SENATE AND THE WHITE HOUSE NEXT YEAR. It will give the President, at least, a big hand up if we allow him to paint us as intransigently against ‘protecting the economy from default.’

      There WILL NOT be default, but it is very likely there will be a ratings downgrade EVEN IF the debt ceiling is raised, which is actually the problem that default would deliver

      • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

        nt

    • SoFiMil

      Please expand on the foreign bond holder aspect. Thanks.

      • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

        knowing that he knows he has the money. The instability they see is Obama himself!

        • SoFiMil

          .

      • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

        and have it shown to Americans that the world won’t end. I don’t like to have a showdown in which Obama can cause an international crisis on his own.

  • SoFiMil

    to further this scheme. Why are the Rs enabling this?!

  • Glaucon

    And has anyone read all of it, making sure there are no surprises hidden in there?

    Read the Bill:
    http://www.redstate.com/glaucon/2011/07/28/now-more-than-ever-read-the-bill/

    • boballab

      Fox was reporting earlier that because they couldn’t get the votes to pass the bill earlier tonight they are “tweaking” it to try and get enough R ‘s top pass it.

      Matter of fact they even pushed the vote back until later today (Friday).

  • http://www.usdebateboard.com usdebateboard

    Handing Obama another $1T to grease the palms of his political cronies with no real cuts is not “declaring victory on the debt ceiling.”

  • SoFiMil

    And like with TARP, an over-reaction will make things far worse.

    BTW, love the Reid’s civil discourse blabbering that Boehner’s bill is “dead on arrival.” The only thing I can say in defenxe of Boehner is that at least he has a plan.

    • Christian

      When the Dow was at 6800, I (and my retirement account) definitely considered it an emergency.

      • mirac777

        Just to supposedly “protect” your IRA? The consequences of this massive debt load on ALL Americans will be felt for decades. Future generations of Americans will be enslaved to big government for their entire lives, which you were not, simply due to true conservatives fighting to apply constitutional limits on government spending and power. So you say just borrow trillions more on the backs of the next generation here. Everyone just sat around and let homes get foreclosed upon, auto companies and banks get taken over and taxpayer bailouts leading to billions of taxpayer dollars being stolen by big gov’t cronies and you want to give them control over what little we have left in future revenues? The end result of that is a TOTAL default as in American insolvency, and bread lines, period.

      • steve53

        My retirement account took a hit, near the end of Bush’s second term, like everyone else’s. I’m willing to take another hit should the Republicans not cave to Obama and Reid, but I don’t think it will happen. I’m sorry, you are not what is right about America, and you call yourself a Christian?

  • free2smooze

    I believe in perception as a stronger political driver than reality, but when they vote for the Boehner Plan, no structural changes are made, the markets tank anyway, we’re downgraded anyway and spending continues to go up, who is the victor exactly. The Fed? They get to print money and sell it to treasury covering our increasing obligations with an ever increasingly flimsy currency until one day not to far from now we wake up to find that it’s suddenly gone off a cliff and it costs $50 for a pizza. How important will a meaningless, symbolic political victory be when you’re burning through the kid’s college fund just to survive? How do I know this will happen? Because it has happened over and over and over all over the world when countries have found themselves right where we are.

    • californiagold

      What many fail to realize is that what is going on in DC right now is a political fix to get the politicians through the next election. The economic fix isn’t being negotiated at all,in fact, it’s being ignored.

    • JSobieski

      (1) It takes a 2/3 vote to approve a constitutional amendment
      (2) The language in CCB appears to prevent raising the debt ceiling until after the BBA is sent off to the states

      So even if the Senate voted to approve the CCB by a 2/3 vote, the debt ceiling would still not be raised because the HOUSE failed get the 2/3 necessary vote.

      One of two things is true. Either the BBA was totally window dressing for the CCB (i.e. symbolic victory), or the CCB itself was effectively neutored by the inability of the House get get 2/3 in support (making the entire CCB symbolic).

      In terms of FY2012 cuts, the new Boehner plan had $25B. The CCB had $111. All this stuff appears to be 99% political, and 1% substance.

  • rightwingmom52

    to keep holding the line in the face of the pressure they’re getting from Boehner.

    He has them listed at:

    http://www.marklevinshow.com/goout.asp?u=http://www.freedomworks.org/blog/bstein80/please-call-these-house-republicans-and-ask-them-t?src=facebook

  • californiagold

    As of tonight, reports suggest the votes aren’t there for the current plan proposed by the republican leadership.

    Why Boehner decided to offer another plan after CCB is anyone’s guess, but since he did, there is a way to get the votes and declare victory.

    1) Keep the cuts at around $900 billion.
    2) Eliminate the commission
    3) No new taxes
    4) Promise house members another vote on the balanced budget amendment later this year.

    This deal would pass, Boehner could then declare victory.

  • Christian

    Has Dick Morris ever been right about anything?

    This is a serious question – he just always strikes me as saying things that seem way out of touch with reality. Plus he seems like a really weird guy to boot. Does Dick Morris really have a track record of insghtful predictions that anyone here should trust (particularly about something as critically important as this)?

    • boballab

      Bill Clinton turned to in 1995 for help against the GOP in the show down over the 1995 budget and to help him get re-elected. He was the one that advised Clinton to go for a “balanced” budget.

  • snowshooze

    Thanks Michael… I didn’t hear that one.
    We got through today with the young guns holding out… I can only hope.
    The American people are being severely misled.
    I must impress upon you make the point that even in the cutting projections, each successive budget is projected to grow, even with projected cuts.
    Do what you can.
    Thanks,
    Mark

  • ideasmatter

    I think the game is up but the Kubuki continues.
    We need 750 billion “per year” for at least “the first two years” in spending cuts.
    Without that sort of serious cut, the debt spiral begins, where rate hikes start chasing devalued dollars , which in turn chase unemployement numbers, which in turn, chase slipping property values.
    88 miilion people in America get a check in the mail every month from the federal government, what happens when 44 million do not?
    There is no asset “class” or income “class” that can bear the brunt of this welfare state collapse, no more than you or I can.
    Can you absorb the markets slipping away half, to two thirds of your 401K’s or IRA’s ?
    Can you afford 10 dollar gas? Milk? We do a serious cut now, or we get it all shaved off by market forces (reality) in the mid term, shortly.
    Does anyone care to compromise with either one of the well healed establishment party wonks now?
    This is why “principles matter”, I refuse to follow Bill Kristol, Bill OReilley, John McCain, John Boehner, or Harry Reid, off a cliff.

  • snowshooze

    I have learned a lot here. Crossed swords a few times, been thrown out twice now.
    I came crawling back with apologies, and I knew I was at fault, or misunderstood. No biggie.
    Here we are in full heat of battle, and I come here to see what is really going on now rather then check the MSN. I used to go over there first.
    Anyway, I just want to let all of you know, I think this is the greatest gathering of conservatisim that can be found. Aside of a few defectors..
    And I really enjoy the debates amongst the crowd.
    Thanks, Guys and gals. I am honored to be a part of the community.
    Mark

    • SoFiMil

      Unlike Obama, Reid, and Pelosi, conservatives, to include Boehner, have several specific plans on the table, transparent for all to see.

  • amigag

    I just read the 5 points. Is this part of the plan that Speaker Boehner is presenting to the House members? If so, then I agree the House members are being led into a trap.

    I take it I didn’t oversleep and this passed the Senate and came back to the House already?

    Whose plan is this?

    Who is leading them into this trap?

    Is Reid Speaker of the House now?