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Five Things You Need To Know About New Hampshire

I was the sole general chairman of the New Hampshire campaign of Pat Buchanan in the winter of 1995-6.

I was alone because my co-chairman, faced with unmoving single-digit poll numbers, had fled for the Dole campaign.

I remember Pat’s consternation about our seemingly stagnant poll numbers.  And yet, when New Hampshire voters began focusing on the election, those polls became meaningless.  Just a few weeks before the primary.

The “pitch fork” brigade carried New Hampshire.  And I am convinced that had there not been shenanigans in South Carolina, a GOP under a Buchanan banner would have defeated Clinton and rewritten history — unlike — the sleazy stand-for-nothing Dole.

So — what do you want to know about New Hampshire?

(1) New Hampshire Is A Conservative State

In 2006 and 2008, many conservatives, including me, either sat out the election or supported Democrats.

We did this because we were stick-and-tired of Bush’s massive government spending, ballooning deficits, national ID cards, warrantless wiretaps, and other Orwellian innovations.

In addition, like a duck riding a tidal wave, New Hampshire floated with the national mood.

Democrats — and a lot of Washington “experts” — concluded that New Hampshire was the “new Vermont” and they suffered for it.

In 2010, the voters gave the GOP nearly three-fourths of the 400-member House, 19 out of 24 seats in the state Senate, all five seats on the governor’s “executive council,” both U.S. House seats, and the U.S. Senate seat.

True, 2010 was a “tsunami” year, but it was, I think, closer to the norm than 2008.

(2) No One Has New Hampshire “Locked Up” Now

Most New Hampshire residents get mostly Boston television (on the commercial channels).

They remember Romney’s rabid support for abortion, gun control, same-sex rights, and RomneyCare.

They also remember when, as governor, he brought “staties” (Massachusetts state troopers) up to his place on Winnipesaukee to keep locals off a portion of their lake.

Romney has reached a “flexible wall.”  Virtually everyone knows him and has an opinion of him.  He is not going to get the votes of peole who hate him — perhaps not even in the general election.

And, if he can’t carry New Hampshire, Romney threatens to be 2012′s “Bob Dole.”

(3) Social Issues Play a Major Role

Gun issues are huge. In addition, there is a very significant evangelical community centered around laces like Nashua, Amherst, and Concord. The Catholic pro-life contingent is also very influential. If undivided, this is enough to carry the state.

Most (but not all) of these people loved former New Hampshire Senator Bob Smith, and they will probably not forgive Rick Santorum’s role in ending his political career.

Similarly, Michele Bachmann has done all of the right things in Washington and could have been (and perhaps still could be) a formidable candidate. But she seems to have conceded the state.

(4) ObamaCare Is The Issue Which Turned This State From Deep Blue to Blood-Red

We knew the end was near when an incumbent Democrat congresswoman — forced to finally hold  a town meeting — required constituents to go through a metal detector and refused to answer questions from anyone not issued a “question-asking ticket.”

You may remember the spin placed on last Tuesday’s elections.

Among “mixed” results, the one time when the word “overwhelmingly” was used was when critical swing sate Ohio — fresh from repudiating the GOP on unionization — overwhelmingly rejected the ObamaCare mandate.

And yet, over and over again, Speaker John Boehner and Leader Mitch McConnell forgo the opportunity to make this an issue.

Given the D.C. Circuit’s recent 201 decision to uphold the law, it is even less clear that Anthony Kennedy will cast the deciding vote to overturn it.

But, even if he does, the GOP needs to spend the next seven months reminding Americans that:

  • Obama resorted to unthinkable and varied sleaze and corruption to slam the bill through;
  • Obama spent a year trying to nationalize health care, rather than creating jobs;
  • To accomplish this, Obama put massive tax increases on the poor and middle class; and,
  • The horrific burden of the mandate will fall most heavily on the youthful core of Obama’s 2008 base.

Yes, ObamaCare can be repealed immediately a year from January by a majority vote in the Senate if Republicans control the Senate, House, and White House.  (Details at another time.)

However, if Americans don’t hear anything about ObamaCare repeal until October 15, 2012, don’t expect them to believe Republicans are serious.

(5) Here, and Nationally, Candidates Need To Take On The “Obama Smear Machine”

Obama cannot win the upcoming presidential election.

But Republicans can lose it.

Obama’s sole winning strategy, as I said last summer, is to “Barry Goldwaterize” every GOP candidate who becomes prominent. And he has thus far done this with incredible success.

I don’t know who leaked the Cain allegations to Politico. But I know that they became national news because the Obama worshipping media chose to make them so.

So remember these words:

“Obama Smear Machine”

Every time the media undertakes to assassinate the character of another Republican, people should, in a Pavlovian way, remember these words.

 by Michael E. Hammond, former General Counsel Senate Steering Committee 1978-89 and a Dunbarton, New Hampshire resident.

COMMENTS

  • renl57

    ObamaCare didn’t turn NH from “deep blue” to red.

    NH was never deep blue to begin with. NH has no state income tax. It has no state sales tax. NH is more of a swing state. I could certainly see Romney winning it against Obama.

    But NH has a strong libertarian streak (its motto: “Live Free or Die”). Gun rights are a libertarian issue. The voters there have a live-and-let-live attitude toward the usual hot-button social issues.

  • ajdx3

    then why would it vote for Newt Gingrich, who supports Obamacare’s central tenant: the individual mandate?

    • izoneguy

      then why would it vote for Romney, grandfather of Obamacare?

      • nathanalbright

        …because they aren’t the only two options. They could vote for Perry, or Bachmann, or….

      • ajdx3

        I didn’t suggest they would. The premise is that Romney had somewhere between 30-40 percent support in NH and that the remaining 60-70% are conservative voters seeking the not-Romney candidate. So again, I ask why those “conservative” voters who will not vote for Romney will vote for Gingrich when he supports Obamacare’s individual mandate, not to mention amnesty for illegals. If Perry’s immigration position is not conservative enough, how could Gingrich’s be acceptable?

  • rqsulfates

    I will vote for Obama, anyway.
    I think he is more trustworthy.

    RQ Sulfates is a firm that uses child slave labor.

    • gekster

      The HuffPo is that way <——-.

      • Tbone

        NH?

        • izoneguy

          China?

    • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

      ..nt..

    • http://www4.webng.com/rickbull/lostlucky/ rickbull

      more trustworthy than whom? Vladmir Lenin? Maybe.

      • gunsrus

        You can bet the farm that Obmamma will do the wrong thing every time.

        • http://www4.webng.com/rickbull/lostlucky/ rickbull

          NT

  • donald_24

    Not all of ObamaCare can be repealed with a simple majority in the Senate. Some parts need 60 votes. Remember, when ObamaCare was apssed, there were 2 seperate Senate votes. There was the main ObamaCare vote, which got 60 votes. And then there was the ObamaCare Reconcillation bill, which got less than 60 votes.

    From askheritage.org:

    “If any Senator can gather 16 signatures on a cloture petition, then they could file that petition with the clerk of the Senate. This would commence a proceeding that would end with a vote requiring 60 votes to shut off debate on a motion to proceed to a full repeal of Obamacare within two days of the filing of the petition. It is expected that Senate liberals would use Rule 22 to filibuster a full repeal of Obamacare.”

    • avagreen

      The new version of the cloture rule, which has remained in place since 1975, makes it considerably easier for the Senate majority to invoke cloture. This has considerably strengthened the power of the majority, and allowed it to pass many bills that would otherwise have been filibustered…
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_22#United_States

      Among the Senate seats up for election in 2012, there are 21 Democrats, 10 Republicans and 2 Independents. The Independents include Joe Lieberman, who ran and won as an independent in 2006 after losing the Connecticut Democratic primary. Lieberman and Independent Bernie Sanders of Vermont both caucus with the Democratic Party.

      If Senators in other classes die or resign between 2011 and 2012, there may be additional special elections between the beginning of the 112th Congress (on January 3, 2011), and the 2012 election. The dates between which the death or resignation of a Senator would lead a special election during this time period vary from state to state…
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2012

    • Brian Darling

      and I can assure you that Hammond is correct.
      If Republicans had the will to remove ObamaCare with a simple majority in the Senate, they could. But the strategy assumes that Rs take over the Senate in the next Congress and that an R wins the presidency.
      Mind you, I do not advocate a strategy to remove ObamaCare from the books by abolishing the filibuster, but it is possible. It is also possible that Republicans can roll out a complete repeal of ObamaCare and just put it on the Senate floor and force cloture after cloture vote until it passes.
      If Rs capture 50 Senate seats + Presidency it can be done.

  • donald_24

    Also, one part of reconcillation, which only requires 51 votes, that people often foreget about is that it MUST relate to the budget, as determined by the Senate Parlimentarian. You cannot pass any bill you want through reconcillation. The regulations in ObamaCare, like the ban on pre-existing conditions, lifetime caps, etc., technically do not relate to the budget and need 60 votes to repeal. So when GOP candidates say they wil repeal ObamaCare, they are lying… unless they plan to somehow magically win 13 Senate seats in 2012.

    • MF

      just like the Dems did when it first passed.

      • donald_24

        Only the parts of ObamaCare that relate to the federal budget can go through reconcillation. After all, the process is called BUDGET reconcillation. You can’t just pass any bill you want.

        And the Dems did not pass all of ObamaCare through budget reconcillation. Parts of it were and the remainder was passed with the regular 60 vote process. If the Dems could pass all of ObamaCare through reconcillation, there would have been a public option.

  • tankertodd

    Move to New Hampshire!

    I served in the army with a New Hampshire native who took pride in having the words “Live Free or Die” on his license plate. Rock on.

  • radicalrighty

    The Dems you supported help pass Obamacare, right?

  • Leon H. Wolf

    You were a Republican all your life, then in 2006 and 2008 you threw a hissy fit and helped elect the people who brought us Obamacare, several trillion dollars in additional debt, 10% unemployment, and two liberal idiots who will probably be on the Supreme Court for the next 30 years and you’re here… bragging about it? Telling us that we’d better kowtow to your wishes or you’ll subject the country to another 4 years that have been just like the last 3?

    Go pound sand. Maybe come back when you can manage to sound more contrite than entitled.

  • http://redmerrimack.blogspot.com/ charliebravoNH

    I could never understand how being upset about Bush and the Iraq war meant the Republican majorities in the NH State Legislature had to go.. I could never understand how being upset about Iraq meant sitting out the elections and allowing the elections of Shea Porter, Hodes and Shaheen.After all their votes for Obamacare and trillions of dollars in debt made this country better didn’t it?. I could never understand why the great state of NH deserved a billion dollar deficit because of Bush.

    Staying home because you are upset about your party is cutting your nose to spite your face. Join the Party and help fix it. Mr Hammond I hope you lend your talents and abilities to the effort to elect a Conservative President and Conservative Governor in 2012. We deserve it.