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The April Rasmussen Trust numbers.

By: Moe Lane (Diary)  |  May 14th, 2010 at 09:16 AM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

I’ve been trying to do this post for a few days (Rasmussen usually puts these numbers up before it does a formal article). Short version: eight out of ten for the GOP, but the Democrats made up lost territory across the board.

Apr-10 Mar-10
Issue Dem GOP Diff Dem GOP Diff Shift
Health Care 41% 48% (7) 37% 53% (16) 9
Education 43% 39% 4 40% 43% (3) 7
Social Security 40% 42% (2) 36% 48% (12) 10
Abortion 40% 42% (2) 32% 47% (15) 13
Economy 39% 43% (4) 37% 49% (12) 8
Taxes 36% 51% (15) 34% 52% (18) 3
Iraq 41% 44% (3) 39% 47% (8) 5
Nat’l Security 40% 42% (2) 36% 51% (15) 13
Gov’t Ethics 34% 30% 4 35% 33% 2 2
Immigration 38% 41% (3) 34% 47% (13) 10


For those wondering how this looks in general: compared to last year, pretty good.

April-10 May-09
Issue Dem GOP Diff Dem GOP Diff Shift
Health Care 41% 48% (7) 53% 35% 18 (25)
Education 43% 39% 4 49% 36% 13 (9)
Social Security 40% 42% (2) 48% 39% 9 (11)
Abortion 40% 42% (2) 41% 41% - (2)
Economy 39% 43% (4) 44% 43% 1 (5)
Taxes 36% 51% (15) 41% 47% (6) (9)
Iraq 41% 44% (3) 41% 43% (2) (1)
Nat’l Security 40% 42% (2) 41% 48% (7) 5
Gov’t Ethics 34% 30% 4 40% 29% 11 (7)
Immigration 38% 41% (3) 36% 37% (1) (2)

The monthly results have tended towards both wholesale shifts to the Democrats, and wholesale shifts to the Republicans: but over the last year the Democrats have largely worsened their reputation with the electorate in everything except national security (which makes sense, as until quite recently this administration’s policies have been not the subject of as much opposition criticism). A couple of good months for the Democrats will wipe out their long-term damage; it remains to be seen whether that will happen.

Moe Lane

Crossposted to Moe Lane.

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COMMENTS

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  • earlgrey

    what have Rs done?

  • SIConservative

    Given the prominence of the Times Square attempted bombing and Arizona immigration bill, it is conceivable that recent media coverage could have resulted in double digit shifts on the immigration and national security issues. I don’t understand why the shift in Social Security would’ve taken place. The one that really stands out, though, is abortion. Even with the Supreme Court nomination, I just don’t see how there could’ve been a 13 point shift in the trust numbers. I can’t say definitively where the problem lies, but that just doesn’t look right.

  • Scope

    Just because Pelousy said that she was going to drain the swamp, doesn’t mean she did. In fact, I’d say the swamp got more wet with the Progressives and their cram down legislation. So, they bribe, deal, lie, cheat and arm twist to pass Obamacare, and they are more ethical than the Republicans? Just for that one issue alone, I don’t trust the rest of the numbers. There really is something wrong.

  • IJB

    I’ve been watching Moe’s posts on these long enough to conclude that you can’t put *any* weight in the month-to-month comparisons.

    I don’t know if the sample is too small or what, but month-to-month there is just too much variation in the numbers (and they often seem to shift in a direction *opposite* of what common sense would tell would be the direction) , that I know longer trust them.

    I think these numbers only make sense if you take a year or 2 years worth of them, and then plug them into something like Excel, to plot them in order to get a feel for the longer-term trends.

    But I’ve seen too many of these like this that don’t make sense to put much stock in the month-to-month comparisons…

  • annas

    is my first read and this is second every morning. I have been so discouraged reading his polls lately tho. It shows the Democrats gaining ground all the time. WHY? Things get worse and worse and they are getting better and better? Is it just me thinking things are worse? Am I deluding myself? I keep looking/listening for the Republicans to keep up the pressure on the Democrats and hear NOTHING except Sessions saying Elena Kagan is just fine. I guess they are back to the old “go along to get along” theory which has done so well in the past (not). The Democrats play for keeps ALL the time.

  • Kyle-MI

    This is the third big shift we have seen this year. First there was a big shift from the GOP to the Dems on all issues, then it shifted back, and now it has shifted again. It is weird that it is happening on almost all issues. It is also weird that there does not seem to be anything driving most of these. There are not any big news events and the campaign commercials are barely starting. There is a general relentless happy talk from the MSM on the economy but that does not explain any of the other issues.

    If I were Rasmussen I would be doing internal weekly polls to check the validity of their methods. The shifts seems to be happening without any forces and they are well beyond random uncertainty.

  • earlgrey
  • earlgrey

    They are afraid to oppose because of the media, but when they actively oppose the democrats they do better. Am I wrong?

    The CW of getting along is bunk. It doesn’t get them further than second place in a two man race.

  • deano64

    make me think what the hell? I don’t get it. I mean who are these people they’re polling? I think I’ll concentrate on the 1 year shift and pretend I didn’t see the month to month. Yeah right….

  • annas

    if it gets them only second place, why do they do it?

  • albeus

    The dums are more ethical than the Republicans? Makes me wonder just what ethical standards the responders espouse. Certainly, not mine.

  • earlgrey

    Fear of media
    Lack of conviction (enjoy the high life without the work)
    Desire to be invited to the right parties
    Wanting to be universally loved
    Forgetting that this is a fight not a debate
    Belief that the electorate won’t notice or care.
    Fear of the electorate that is engaged (up until now that has not be conservatives).

    I answered your question without really understanding it. Are you arguing with my premise that just getting along does the Rs no good? I am open to other opinions, but I can’t help but notice that the Rs were getting a lot of good numbers when they opposed the HCR bill, but now that they are all on board Financial deform and loving Kagan (despite her weak qualifications) they are no longer scoring high.

    Let’s put in this way, if you are in a debate and you keep saying the other guy has a good point — do you think you will win?

  • Scope

    this is how you do it seminars for the R worms in Washington. I’ll bet he is not lacking a long list of cocktail party attendees. Union people are stopped at the door.

  • Scope

    doesn’t include teaching the meaning of the word ethics. That or it has been scrubbed from school books, just like the real history of our country.

  • clintonformccain

    The very bad Obama/Dem polling numbers from earlier this year included three groups:

    Republicans: who would disapprove of the Dems, no matter what

    Independents: who disapprove because they are stunned at the way the Dems are governing

    Dems: who disapproved because the Dems hadn’t passed free health care for everybody.

    The third group, the base, has come come home now that they perceive the government takover and higher spending is being implemented. That group was the reason that Dems thought it would be a net plus to ram through health care rather than let it die. Their calculation is that they’ve already lost the idependents and, of course, the Republicans.

  • earlgrey

    We could all learn from Governor Christie, and we will :) .

  • IJB

    Which also explains why Rasmussen’s Strongly Approve/Strongly Disapprove differential has gone down since ObamaCare passed, while the overall gross Approve/Disapprove numbers have remain almost entirely unbudged over the same period.

    IOW, Obama has brought his base home, but it’s not enough to get his overall Approval rating into “positive” territory, at least not among likely voters…

  • writeblock

    The poll reflects two things: disillusionment with the Democrats, certainly; but a lack of enthusiasm for the GOP as well. Republicans can’t capitalize on Democrat failure because they fail to understand the depth of public anger and frustration with business-as-usual. GOP leaders seem cut from the same gentlemanly mold from another age of courtliness: Bennett, McConnell, Hatch, Lugar, Grassley. They are ill-equipped for the cold civil war we’re engaged in.

    In fact conservatism is fighting a two-front war. We’re opposing the liberal agenda–while at the same time opposing the GOP establishment that has allowed the country to drift leftwards and expand government even when it had control of every branch. So the public is wary of both parties–rightfully so. Nothing will change till conservatism truly takes over.

  • cabanon

    Over the past year Democrats have seen their numbers tank but in the last month we seen our double digit advantages drop to low single digits. Why? What is happening thats causing the shift now? I get that with HCR the Dem base comes home but that doesnt explain all the other issues.

  • lukematthews

    Public opinion doesn’t shift dramatically one way and stay unless something seriously bad happens that completely screws the pooch. It fluxuates as people try and rationalize what the Democrats are doing. The Party does something else ridiculous, and the middle and unalert shift. It is a standard pattern of shifting public opinion.
    Remember, last year at this time, P.Bho was still the boy wonder. Dems were still riding high on their election wave and the media was praising him for his ‘pragmatism’. The shift to the right must mediate for people to really accept the terrible policies and ideas coming from the left. They must be truly convinced the left are a bunch of lunatics and not just ‘misunderstood’.
    Actually opinion must veer back and forth for it to take hold. This is a temporal blip because of the faux economic numbers coming out of Washington. As economic realities become more concrete, it will shift back. For truly moderate Dems and apolitical moderates to change their viewpoint takes time and a real change of heart. They’ve been listening to eight years of GOP bashing and are a little skittish. Small wonder.
    We have to continue to educate and enlighten.

  • lukematthews

    Public opinion doesn’t shift dramatically one way and stay unless something seriously bad happens that completely screws the pooch. It fluxuates as people try and rationalize what the Democrats are doing. The Party does something else ridiculous, and the middle and unalert shift. It is a standard pattern of shifting public opinion.
    Remember, last year at this time, P.Bho was still the boy wonder. Dems were still riding high on their election wave and the media was praising him for his ‘pragmatism’. The shift to the right must mediate for people to really accept the terrible policies and ideas coming from the left. They must be truly convinced the left are a bunch of lunatics and not just ‘misunderstood’.
    Actually opinion must veer back and forth for it to take hold. This is a temporal blip because of the faux economic numbers coming out of Washington. As economic realities become more concrete, it will shift back. For truly moderate Dems and apolitical moderates to change their viewpoint takes time and a real change of heart. They’ve been listening to eight years of GOP bashing and are a little skittish. Small wonder.
    We have to continue to educate and enlighten.