There’s been very little movement in the race since PPP polled it a month ago. The main difference is that negative campaigning has driven up both candidates’ negatives by 10-11 points. Where Burns’ favorability was a net +19 in April it’s now just +8. And where Critz was previously at a net +7 it’s now -6.
Critz is holding onto a 73-22 lead with Democrats which is not bad at all in a district where even voters within the party have a negative opinion of Pelosi. But Burns is up 87-10 with Republicans and has a 52-31 lead with independents.
I respect Tom Jensen for being an honest (Democratic) pollster; but if there’s still this kind of enthusiasm gap then Tim Burns has the edge. Go help him over the finish line.