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Two days out on PA-12.

By: Moe Lane (Diary)  |  May 16th, 2010 at 10:36 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Finally got notified of the PPP poll for PA-12: 48/47 Burns/Critz.

There’s been very little movement in the race since PPP polled it a month ago. The main difference is that negative campaigning has driven up both candidates’ negatives by 10-11 points. Where Burns’ favorability was a net +19 in April it’s now just +8. And where Critz was previously at a net +7 it’s now -6.

Critz is holding onto a 73-22 lead with Democrats which is not bad at all in a district where even voters within the party have a negative opinion of Pelosi. But Burns is up 87-10 with Republicans and has a 52-31 lead with independents.

I respect Tom Jensen for being an honest (Democratic) pollster; but if there’s still this kind of enthusiasm gap then Tim Burns has the edge.  Go help him over the finish line.

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  • proudgop

    Its supposed to rain here in NYC on Tuesday so I assume PA is getting it too

    might impact voter turnout and when it says what it says on enthusiasm lets hope it keep some dems away

  • redinsf

    Mark Critz (D): 47 (41)
    Tim Burns (R): 48 (44)
    Undecided: 6 (15)

    That doesn’t look too good. Critz gained 6 points while Burns only got 4. :( I’d call this a toss up.

  • http://moelane.com/ Moe Lane

    NT

  • IJB

    If the poll is right on that, and Critz is holding 70-80% of D voters, I don’t see how Burns can win in a district with an over 2-to-1 Dem registration edge.

    At this point, it looks like Burns will have to rely on turnout to win, and that’s the position you never want to be in…

    (On the plus side, we should still win HI-01! :) )

  • http://www.suvstrategery.blogspot.com SoFiMil

    So 63% say the GOP ran the country poorly when Bush was President? I agree. But it’s now 2010.

    The media still doesn’t get it and is making this out to be an anti-incumbent primary and general election. Look at both the incumbent Democrat and Republicans who are getting bounced. They voted for health care reform and the bailout. That’s the relative data-point–not that they happen to be incumbents.

  • Adjoran

    because the only way it can be accurate is if the person in question is a barely functional nitwit who doesn’t even know right from wrong in many instances.

    My recollection of PPP state polls was that they tended to skew Democratic in results, whether by faulty design or another reason, up to the big Democratic years of 2006 and 2008, when they were fairly accurate. This tells me their polls may be intrinsically structured to assume good turnout among Democrats and/or weaker turnout among Republicans.

    I don’t think 2010 is going to be the big Dem year ’06 and ’08 were. Cook rates the 12th District as R +1 and rates the race a tossup. But Cook’s results were also much better in Democratic years like ’96, ’98, ’06, and ’08 than in ’94, ’02, and ’04, so he may suffer from the same syndrome.

    So it seems if Burns is even in the polls, he has a great chance of winning due to the greater enthusiasm of Republicans and independents this year as opposed to Democrats.

    And man, wouldn’t that be sweet?

  • Adjoran

    The district is evenly split in registration, and considered a toss-up district by Cook now that Murtha is stealing brimstone in hell.

  • IJB

    A Cook PVI simply means that, *for President*, PA-12 votes 1% more Republican than the national vote average.

    That’s all it means.

    It doesn’t say anything about party registration. It doesn’t say anything about votes for Congress.

    In fact, PA-12 has something like a more than 2-to-1 Dem registration edge.

  • Adjoran

    on his House Races section, so I don’t think he’s talking about Presidential votes only.

    PA-12 was once heavily Democratic, but lots of those old union areas have been carved off over the years – Murtha didn’t need the help. There are a lot more suburban developments in the district now, and fewer blue collar areas.

    I don’t know the exact registration numbers, but it is hard to reconcile Cook rating the district as the “233rd most Republican in the country” with a 2-1 Democratic registration edge, which would be more typical of safe seats like GA-04 in Atlanta.

  • redinsf

    The fact that you didn’t put the top lines of this race in the post makes me think you are trying to somehow hide that this race is a tossup, which you really shouldn’t do. We need as many conservatives to know about the closeness of this race as possible.

    Can I ask why they weren’t included?

  • proudgop

    yet the poll shows basically all Dems have made up their minds

    Its really how the undecided Indep go and if they come out and vote

  • http://dreamsfrommyforefathers.com RoguePolitics

    What would you say?