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Time for the *important* Byrd succession question.

By: Moe Lane (Diary)  |  June 28th, 2010 at 06:00 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Now that it’s been determined by the Secretary of State for WV that there will be no special election for Byrd’s now-vacant seat…

OK, let me just note something here. The seat was held by a Democrat; the Governor is a Democrat; the state government is more or less dominated by Democrats.  The people of West Virginia seem more or less happy about this state of affairs, and state law really does suggest that there is an issue with the fact that the filing period for 2010 has already passed.  Governor Manchin isn’t putting himself in the seat, and he’s probably not going to pull a Blagojevich and try to sell it to the highest Democratic bidder.  There’s not much for us to work with with regard to pushing for a 2010 special election, sorry.

Besides, there’s a really, really important question that needs to be asked of every West Virginian Democrat interested in the seat: When it comes to cap-and-trade, do you stand with your State… or do you stand with the President? And there’s a follow-up: Are you prepared to defy the will of the national Democratic party and stand up for West Virginian coal production?

I predict that there’s going to be a lot of West Virginian Democrats who will be inclined to scurry away from both questions…

Moe Lane

Crossposted to Moe Lane.

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  • dontell

    Won’t that mean one less Dem in the Senate?

  • thurman

    … not hold a special election.

    To clarify– they will appoint a Dem crony to finish off Byrd’s term through 2012 I believe, rather than having to hold a special election now

    I wouldn’t hold my breath on this seat staying unfilled by another Dem rubber stamp for long…

  • http://moelane.com/ Moe Lane

    …to justify a special election, sure. The best anybody’s come up with is trying to get a third party to get a candidate and primary in before their deadline, and force a special that way. That looks really low-probability to me.

  • IJB

    …What WV Dems have done here is completely contemptible and outrageous.

    This is a nakedly partisan powergrab in pure contrivance of the obvious *spirit* of WV’s election law. They invoked the ‘letter’ of an ambiguous law to contravene its clear *intent*.

    I hope the contempt shown them by the WV state Dem leadership is not soon forgotte by the voters of WV.

    (And I disagree there’s “nothing” we can do here – WV Republicans, and LP members too, can and *should* sue on the grounds that this outcome is in clear violation of the 17th Amendment. We’ll see if RNC and WV GOP’ers have the ****s to follow through on this though (see: MN, and Norm Coleman)…)

  • JamesSmith130

    because a third party nomination wouldn’t be considered an official primary.

  • Swamp_Yankee

    - Will you pro-actively fight an attempt by a lame duck Congress to pass cap and tax after the election?

    - Will you pro-actively fight any attempt by the president to grant amnesty via an executive order?

    - Will you filibuster liberal judges?

    We will lose him/her on union issues, entitlement issues and pork issues, but along with cap and trade, I don’t think there is much wiggle room for the new Senator to be lax on amnesty or liberal judges. West Virginians must demand their Senator represent them and must let Manchin know.

  • jeffreywturner

    And since the SOS & Gov are Democratic partisans, I would not expect them to interpret in a way that would endanger an otherwise safe Dem hold of this seat for two additional years.

    The only angle I could see is the independent angle. The filing deadline for independent candidates has not passed, so their could be a special election this year with only independent candidates on the ballot. Of course if this were to happen, the Dems and GOP of WV would each have an unofficial official candidate in the race.

  • redtillimdead

    On the November 2012 ballot, there will be 2 senate races. One for the last 5 weeks of Byrd’s term, the other for the full 6 year term. They may be another conflict in WV law though. A few years ago in a similar situation, the law would not allow a candidate to run in 2 elections. So, the special election and regular election were fought between different candidates. I’m not sure if the law has changed for that situation or not.
    IMO. a 2012 election benefits us. Right now, Manchin is very popular and has been able to separate himself from Obama. In 2012, a very unpopular Obama (in WV) will be on the ballot. That will make it harder for him to separate himself from Obama, and there will likely be joint campaign appearances. Make a TV ad out of a Manchin/Obama rally and we got it. Plus, he could always become a lot less popular by then, like many governors have in the last 2 years.

  • drstanly1

    the dems did something like this in Mass. How did that work out for them?

  • IJB

    …law.

    I can’t believe that the WV Dem legislature won’t eliminate that part of the law long before 2012 – it would be *asinine* to hold any Special Election in 2012 now. Absolute idiocy…

  • snowshooze

    That is a granted.
    They would be out of their minds to even consider one.
    However, I would encourage healthy competition and plenty of coverage of the potential appointees…
    If they could appoint quick and quiet…that would be in their best interest so if there were any way to throw a monkey wrench in there…

  • Tbone

    former or current Grand Wizards to appoint? After all, its a tradition.

  • conservativecrusade

    due to some ambiguous wording in the law, the dems will escape having to fight for the seat.

    I still say this is a seat we can win in the special election 2012 and the fight to hold the seat also in 2012. West Virginia is a funny state and unless you have lived there, you would never believe what people tell you.

    There are areas still without power and people use outhouses just like the good old days, people hunt illegally in order to feed their families when times get tough, there are snake handling churches all over the state, etc etc etc. Religion is a big deal there, and much of WVA would be against most of the platforms of the democrats. But they vote dem locally as they have the mentality my dad was a dem, his dad was a dem, so I am a dem. But then they will turn around and lean republican in the national scene. But WVA has been hit hard the last few years so they are not happy with Obama, they oppose green energy as coal is a huge life support in that state, and they tend to lean towards religious viewpoints when it comes to other issues. Byrd was loved in that state and would have won each and every time he ran. But now that chapter is over and if we can get the RIGHT man or woman in as a republican, we can take that seat and hold it for a long time. They are loyal voters, so this may be our only chance for some time to come.

  • redtillimdead

    There they changed the law and declared a state of emergency for it to go in effect in time. Here, they interpreted the law the same way the state Supreme Court did in the 1990′s. Nothing crooked here, just incredibly stupid.

  • snowshooze

    So do you believe that there may be some contention within the Democrat party over the appointment?

  • redtillimdead

    Because the Dem nominee will be tied to Obama and, maybe, just maybe, the Gov will lose popularity between now and then. He is very popular now and WV voters do not associate him with Obama. In 2012, it will be hard to when they are both on the ballot. Plus, this gives the likely Rep. nominee Shelley Moore Capito time to raise money. Too bad Manchin has already opened a federal PAC to raise money for this seat. The good news is he can’t directly use that money to run for Senate like Capito could

  • asmith1022

    Personally, being from West Virginia i’d much rather have Capito run for Governor in 2012, and she’d be the odds on favorite to beat any of the potential Dems running. 2012 would be better (unless the dems pass an energy bill before nov) simply because Obama is on the ticket, even the hardcore “New Deal” Democrats (yes they still exist nominally in WV) despise, or have come to despise Obama because of cap and tax. Manchin is very well liked in WV, and I personally don’t see her beating him, although it could be a close race as her father was an incredibly popular Governor. As for Senate nominees, former WV Secretary of State Betty Ireland already proved she could win a state wide election, and Dan Greear nearly won the State’s AG race against a longtime (although thoroughly corrupt) incumbent.

  • Doc Holliday

    they will start electing Republicans when they get a chance. They are already “socially” conservative,and now the Demonrats are going after their livelihoods. Unless they pull a Kennedy Mafia thing, I think we will get some Repubs from W. VA. in time.

  • samiran

    I agree with most commentators, that we don’t have many tools to fight this “decision” by the Secretary of State in WV. I think we (GOP) might be doing the right thing by letting these shenanigan’s fly. After all, we have *many* other races to fight for, and *many* other races we can and will win.

    So this is only a marginal loss. . . .

    That being said; what if the Governor had been a Republican? Do *any* of you truly believe that the Democrats, the MSM, and Zero himself wouldn’t be shouting from the rooftops about this “travesty” of election law?

    Of course not; look at Massachusetts.

    Republican’s often lose because we are ethical and have some amount of class. This is an excellent example of one of those situations; we won’t pick a fight with the Democrats, because we understand it would make us look like asses.

    The Democrats? This is the kind of fight they look for; their party mascot is the ass.

  • m_quick

    Byrd was “Exalted Cyclops”. Where are they going to find another one of those? I didn’t even think cyclops existed since Greek times.

    They may have to settle for a former skinhead.

  • proudgop

    and thats what they are

    Imagine this crap. I live in NY and we have not even had out primary yet ( they could easily have one or even have each party chose someone by committee)

    They did this cause they knew they would lose a Senate Seat in WV in 2012 and to think had the SOS Ireland ran for re-election ( she chose not to take care of a sick parent) they never would of had this ruling

    Someone in WV better sue over this

  • snowshooze

    Here?s What Happens To Robert Byrd?s West Virginia Senate Seat
    ??

    Byrd?s current term expires on January 3, 2013. Under West Virginia state law on handling Senate vacancies, ?if the vacancy occurs less than two years and six months before the end of the term, the Governor appoints someone to fill the unexpired term and there is no election?. Otherwise, Manchin [Ed note: a Democrat] would appoint an interim replacement, and an special election would be held in November to determine who held the seat in 2011 and 2012.

    In other words, we are within a week of the threshold established by West Virginia law. If a vacancy were to be declared on July 3rd or later, there would not be an election to replace Byrd until 2012. If it were to occur earlier, there could potentially be an election later this year, although there might be some ambiguities arising from precisely when and how the vacancy were declared.

    So there will likely be a special election later this year to replace him.
    ==================

    Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/heres-what-happens-to-robert-byrds-west-virginia-senate-seat-2010-6#ixzz0sBq7PwMw

    canopfor on June 28, 2010 at 6:36 PM

  • http://www.suvstrategery.blogspot.com SoFiMil

    I imagine he’s rolling over in his grave. This illegal power grab is sure no way to honor Byrd’s legacy.

  • http://www.suvstrategery.blogspot.com SoFiMil

    as opposed to the South Carolina Governor?

    I know the Democrats are in the majority in the Senate, but let’s put in on the record. Is there a vacancy — or is there not a vacancy?

  • http://www.suvstrategery.blogspot.com SoFiMil

    Just watched game 1 of the College World Series – South Carolina vs. UCLA.

  • gekster

    Could they get a vote from a dead Senator also?

    (With all due respect to the late Mr Byrd, may God bless him.)

  • http://www.suvstrategery.blogspot.com SoFiMil

    .

  • gekster

    And yes, it is a dig at some.

  • redtillimdead

    This case has already been sent to the WV Supreme Court, where they ruled the same way that the SoS interpreted the law. Plus, it wouldnt get anywhere again. Dems dominate the Supreme Court 4-1.

  • http://www.suvstrategery.blogspot.com SoFiMil

    http://deathby1000papercuts.com/2010/06/robert-c-byrd-natalie-tennant-joe-manchin-wv-democrats-and-coincidences/

  • gekster

    for your pleasure,
    Shout from Tears for Fears.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TtmERilBjt0

    If I knew how to embed this, I would.

  • Adjoran

    It says when one “occurs.” It is difficult to argue that the moment of death of Senator Byrd was not the moment the vacancy occurred.

    Is the precedent the Secretary of State cited a case involving a vacancy by death and a special election, or just affirming the filing period deadline against an appeal by a candidate whose petitions arrived a few minutes late?

  • ref1

    it’s the perfect way to honor him, given his obsession with procedure and power. We could call it the “Robert C. Byrd succession maneuver” to go along with all the buildings, parks, and community centers he so modestly named after himself.

  • snowshooze

    A tough one to get around.
    There should be a special election.