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The Dodd-Frank procedural dance.

By: Moe Lane (Diary)  |  June 29th, 2010 at 10:00 AM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

OK, here’s the situation on the Dodd-Frank financial bill.  The Democrats need 60 to get it over the finish line, and they currently have 58 Democrats in the Senate. They got 60 aye votes on the first version.

  • Senators Feingold (D) and Cantwell (D) both voted against Dodd-Frank last time.
  • Senator Brown (R) voted for the first version, but is being reported now as having switched his vote to ‘no’ over the last-minute addition of new taxes to the final version (H/T: Instapundit).
  • Senator Collins (R) also voted for the first version, and is likewise balking over the new taxes (no commitment).
  • Senator Snowe (R), who also voted for the first version, is sounding iffy on voting for this one, again because of the new taxes.
  • In other words: one switch to no and probably a second.
  • Senator Grassley (R) is about the only remaining potential pickup (he voted for cloture), and he won’t commit to signing off on the final version.
  • And, of course, Senator Byrd died last weekend.

So, basically the Democrats went from 60 votes to anywhere from 59 to 55; my assessment is that they don’t have Brown, Collins, and maybe Snowe (net Ayes: 57).  Feingold won’t switch his vote: they’ll retain Grassley on the cloture thing and probably pick up Cantwell, as she’s the weaker one of the two Democratic no votes (net Ayes: 58).  Subtract out Byrd and that works out to 57 aye votes, or not enough for cloture.  Even assuming that they can get Feingold to switch and lock in Snowe, that’s 59… and that scenario will only work if they can get that 60th seat filled soon.

In other words, I assume that at this very moment there is a Democratic party official trying to avoid losing control and scream at the governor of West Virginia about how he needs to appoint a successor to Byrd right now.

Moe Lane

PS: It is reasonable to think that the last-minute 19 billion dollar revenge tax on the financial industry that started this entire mess for the Democrats stands an excellent chance of going away; it’s probably not reasonable to think that Dodd-Frank will.  Elections have consequences, ladies and gentlemen.  Here, have some.

PPS: On the other hand, cap-and-trade opponents should be a bit more cheery: this takes a lot of pressure off on Gov. Manchin to appoint a dunderhead on proper coal development.

Crossposted to Moe Lane.

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  • earlgrey

    Thanks for the summary.

  • Brian_Roastbeef

    Scott Brown could be crucial. IIRC, the first time he gave cover to the Maine twins to make sure this passed cloture easily. His arguments against this due to the taxes are making Snowe and Collins iffy. He could be crucial in leading them in the right direction. Let Grassley stand alone if he wants to be all bipartisan.

    If Brown holds firm this time around, he could have played this as best he possibly could and look like a political genius. The first time around he backed cloture, irritating conservatives, but winning over the liberal electorate in his state. Now he has an opportunity to back away, citing his commitment to avoid new taxes, and show some backbone for his conservative supporters nationally. If the bill fails without his support, he can still go back to Massachusetts and tell the squishes and lefties that he did what he could, he supported the effort in good faith, but the Beltway insiders stuffed it full of taxes.

    Brown has a chance to kill this thing… Or maybe more accurately put, Brown’s refusal gives this a chance to die. If some Dem. pressure or bribe makes him weaken and decide to support this again, we’re definitely screwed. Its now a question of whether he is truly committed against raising taxes, or if his vote is for sale.

  • Scope

    of Obama’s choices for the Byrd replacement. Guaranteed it won’t be what was previously termed a Blue Dog.

  • spepper

    the words “Dodd” “Frank” and “dance” conjures up disturbing images…….of course this nonsense should be voted down, as well as any other form of stealth tax increase they try to camoflage as “reform”– any of them who considers a yes vote needs to know that the voters are finally developing a long memory and will deal with the “tax mongers” appropriately at the next election……

  • throwback59

    Look it up.

  • earlgrey

    Not an MA resident so I called the campaign to ask where he stands on financial reform before I make contribution. Never heard back. If you contributed before to Brown, you might want to give his campaign a call. 781-444-0200

  • RealQuiet

    If this doesn’t get passed before July 4, it’s going to be next to impossible to pass given the remainder of the Senate calendar and the November elections looming only 4 months away. Make the calls to Grassley as well. We need all the GOP Senators to hold the line because we can’t count on any Democrats like Nelson, Finegold, Cantwell or a Byrd replacement. Remember the events of Obamacare.

  • Charlie

    I’m a constituent of Senator Grassley and just sent him an email asking him to rationalize his logic on this issue — I urged him to vote against cloture.

  • Flagstaff

    restrict his choices?

    Never mind. Rhetorical question.

  • Flagstaff

    last night, but none of them are my Republican.

  • Kyle-MI

    He will be responsible for all the votes of anyone he appoints, especially the important votes like cap & trade. If his appointee votes for it, then the best you can say about Manchin is that he is incompetent. The worst you can say is that he is a lying manipulative piece of garbage. Either way he would not be fit for office.

  • deano64

    to believe for a moment that this piece of crap law might be killed. But, I’ve been stood up too many times this year by these jokers.

  • Tbone

    before he died. Harry Reid has it right there in his pocket. Honest.

  • E Pluribus Unum

    This is a battle worth fighting; indeed, a hill worth dying on. I hope, but I don’t believe.

  • E Pluribus Unum

    This is a battle worth fighting; indeed, a hill worth dying on. I hope, but I don’t believe.

  • Swamp_Yankee

    Roastbeef is right. Brown has to flash his indie creds every now and then to shore up his support in Massachusetts. While conservatives gnash their teeth over this, his polls numbers are through the roof.

    But he said he will never support new taxes and he is sticking to it. The key test is whether he can carry Collins, Snowe or Grassley wit him.

  • clintonformccain

    The Weekly Standard has an excellent piece on this “tax”, pointing out that it’s even worse than a tax. It’s an arbitrary “assessment”, the amount of which is determined, not by some predicatable percentage like a tax, but at the whim of federal bureaucrats deciding on a number for each firm.

    http://weeklystandard.com/blogs/dodd-frank-overreach

    They are also reporting that the Dems are reopening the conference committee and will jettison this $19 billion fee. This presumably locks in Brown, Snowe, and Collins.

  • gamechange11two

    Subject: NO
    Action: Speak in unision
    Follow-up: Repeat continuously through 01/02/2011
    Conclusion: Expand winning margins 11/02/2010

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

    and that these Rs will vote to give the executive branch the power to take over the private sector thru the provisions of the bill that are infinitely more onerous than taxes.

  • Richard Mullins

    It seems like one thing that they don’t want to do anymore since that means to compromise. They got them on the first time and that for the Dems is good enough, so no use watering down the bill in order to get them on board. Pleasing wayward Dems is more the way to go, but even that might be hard. Is Boss Reid going to pull a rabbit out of his hat?

  • Wine Country Dog
  • Scope

    The Gov. isn’t just letting the Pres. restrict his choices, the Pres. probably has a boot on his throat applying pressure to the jugular.

  • StandardCandle

    you know just in case we get another Blago investigation out of it.

  • zuckey6

    The Democrats are having trouble agreeing amone themselves as to how to proceed. This seems to be similar to their difficulty with how to craft obamacare.

  • earlgrey
  • gazill

    my Senators are Boxer and Feinstein. I have grown weary of asking Feinstein to vote a certain way (the “right” way of course), and I do not believe Boxer can read, so I no longer write to her either.

  • wiseterri2

    Manchin has previously made clear his interest in the seat. Word is that he will appoint a “seat warmer” and run in 2012. He’s a fairly popular Gov. – what passes for a conservative Democrat. There’s zero chance of having a Republican appointed to the seat and about the same chance of having one win the seat in 2012. He would be miles better than Byrd or Rockefeller.

  • taxpayer1234

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704103904575336823131606734.html?mod=rss_whats_news_us

  • Flagstaff

    it it happens.

  • http://capital-flow-watch.net/ capflowwatch

    Although Title XII has not attracted much attention, it may, in the long run, have greater consequences than more well-known titles.

    Title XII sets up a system to provide grants to ACORN-like organizations to provide ‘education’ and small loans to poor people and also grants to cover losses when these borrowers don’t pay off their loans.

    Imagine, ACORN giving $2,500 installment loans to voters, with funding to drive them to the polls, and more funding to pay off the loans.

    Seem unbelievable? See: http://www.capital-flow-watch.net/eespk