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June BLS: Job recovery stalled out.

By: Moe Lane (Diary)  |  July 2nd, 2010 at 08:46 AM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

UNEXPECTEDLY!

Total nonfarm payroll employment declined by 125,000 in June, and the unemployment rate edged down to 9.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The decline in payroll employment reflected a decrease (-225,000) in the number of temporary employees working on Census 2010. Private-sector payroll employment edged up by 83,000.

Note, of course, that May’s job report was equally stalled-out; the 431,000 jobs that were ‘gained’ that month were also Census workers. We’re just at the end of that particular necessary, but strictly limited, exercise in government spending.

So, how is that Keynesian economics thing working out for people, anyway? – Because where I’m sitting it seems to be roughly equivalent right now to revving the engine when the car’s set to neutral.

Moe Lane

Crossposted to Moe Lane.

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COMMENTS

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  • wennejunk

    and dropped from the looking process.

    I’m sure the decline in the rate will be touted as a success: ‘See…we’re driving the unemployment rate DOWN!”

  • bk

    That proves that the Obama plan is working right?

    Of course the truth is that more people have given up, but we won’t hear very much about that.

  • partyof1

    an irrepressible, almost hysterical optimism out there, despite the relentless hammer of reality each month.

    “Gosh there just has to be a diamond in this pile of Keynesian BS!”

    Makes me think of a cult leader who continually promises the space ship will come “next month”.

    20 May 2010

    Stocks fell sharply Thursday after an unexpected spike in jobless claims…

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/37252159

    April 15, 2010

    The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits unexpectedly soared last week…

    http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=10381935

    Apr. 2, 2010

    March Jobs Report Weaker Than Expected…

    http://www.businessinsider.com/march-jobs-report-2010-4

  • RedBeard

    Who knew this? I mean, according to MSNBC, Obama is the font of infinite wisdom, so………

  • texasgalt

    America is being deconstructed and remade into Spain. He is not nearly finished yet and is poised to check off his remaining agenda items right thru the lame duck session. By the time Obama is sent packing the U.S. may match Spains 20% unemployment.

    Long term unemployment creates more clients for the plantation. Even many conservatives are demanding unemployment benefits be extended over and over, even beyond the 99 weeks. Take that bait and the soon the hook will be set . . .

  • throwback59

    down the unemployment rate is to have everyone give up looking for work.
    And since the unemployment rate is going down we must bring in more illegals to do those jobs not..being…done..by.. Americans…?
    That’s Obamanomics in a nutshell.

  • rdelbov

    This is a very bad report–I hate to see Americans out of work.

    Hope and change is running very low in this economy.

    I see a recovery starting on 01-21-2013

  • RedBeard

    Depriving Obama of his drooling and compliant Congress would be a gigantic step forward.

  • rdelbov

    There is no doubt that a big GOP win would be a boost to the market and to the economy. If you buried Cap and Trade–killed finanacial reform and started DC on budget cutting diet it would change the mood.

    One of the factors hurting the US economy is fear of what is next from the Obama/Pelosi/Reid wrecking crew. A GOP congress would ease that concern.

  • bk

    1) Get enough people to give up that it makes the official unemployment rate look artificially low.

    2) Pay everyone unemployment, since as Pelosi said earlier this week the best way to create jobs is to pay people not to have jobs.

  • Wubbies World

    … the unemployment rate goes down. There is a neat mathematical trick for you.

    Why am I not surprised?

  • Spartan4Life

    Remember(it wasn’t that long ago) that there was a negative stigma attached to you if you worked for the government? Remember “Close enough for government work….”?

    Maybe people are waking up, maybe not. The bottom line is that every government job that is “created”(usually out of thin air) is a DRAG on the economy, not an enhancement. Somebody has to pay for it and all the pensions and benefits, after all. Our genius legislators have papered over that little reality by just borrowing the money. As a result, we have government run amok at every level. The Federal level is the most harmful because those are all the bureaucrats who just push paper around and do nothing to make anybodies life any better. I’ll take an extra cop over an extra czar or czarina any time.

    Unfortunately, we have a government that is a wholly owned subsidiary of the SEIU. I really believe that Barack Obama’s best friend, Andy Stern, is one of the most evil people in the entire history of America. He would see our country destroyed all for the satisfaction of a few more measly union dues. Bastard!

    You would think based on all the evidence, Greece, Spain, California, Illinois, et. al. that Keynesian theory would be completely discredited by now. There is no friggin’ multiplier, is there, you idiots? Yet, every day I turn on CNBC and see the same dunces scratching their heads and wondering aloud why the “recovery” hasn’t taken hold yet. Ha!

  • Marcus_Traianus

    not sure I would ever use an exclamation point when covering this subject, irrespective of context and especially in the lead-in. It gives the wrong impression, especially to folks who have been beat out of employment by Obamanomics. But that’s just me, probably emotional, stylistic and ultimately- certain you don’t care.

    Flame away.

  • spainishirish

    You are right. Period.

  • E Pluribus Unum

    How many times in a row can the Obamunist economists be shocked that Demeconomics is detrimental, in just about every way?

    Of course, no serious economist, evn the commie ones like Krigman, should actually be surprised. These forces at work are sometimes muddy, but this is a large, broad-based thing on with fairly obvious causes and consequences.

  • E Pluribus Unum

    How many times in a row can the Obamunist economists be shocked that Demeconomics is detrimental, in just about every way?

    Of course, no serious economist, evn the commie ones like Krigman, should actually be surprised. These forces at work are sometimes muddy, but this is a large, broad-based thing on with fairly obvious causes and consequences.

  • E Pluribus Unum

    My irrational exuberance with the exclamation points was not a commentary on your comment.

  • E Pluribus Unum

    My irrational exuberance with the exclamation points was not a commentary on your comment.

  • eburke

    insights the Dims have, you should catch the clip of Pelosi talking about how unemployment benefits are vital to the economy because of the awesome stimulative effect it has.

    And all this time it’s been right in front of our face – we should all quit our jobs and get on unemployment and in no time the economy will be humming along like crazy.

    Why didn’t *I* think of that /face palm

  • Common_Cents

    BTW, how bad is Christina Romer? Saw her on TV this morning after Obama gave another ANGRY jobs update so he can take control of broadband to “create jobs”. Romer licks his freaking boots and throws out bland generic talking points of “govt working hard”. Good gawd! How much more can we take?

    From the BLS on birth/death factor in calculating employment numbers. If you look at the details it can be totally made up. Birth/death is the job factor of new businesses starting and hiring vs. businesses closing done by non sampling methods, in other words, made up.

    This go round had a positive 147,000 phantom jobs via birth death made up number. Gee, there are declining bankruptcies? no business closings? Ask a bankruptcy attorney about that one.

    From the BsLS on birth/death calc:

    ” * In 2010, the CES sample includes about 140,000 businesses and government agencies drawn from a sampling frame of Unemployment Insurance tax accounts which cover approximately 410,000 individual worksites. The active CES sample includes approximately one-third of all nonfarm payroll workers. The sample-based estimates are adjusted each month by a statistical model designed to reduce a primary source of non-sampling error which is the inability of the sample to capture, on a timely basis, employment growth generated by new business formations.
    * There is an unavoidable lag between an establishment opening for business and its appearing on the sample frame and being available for sampling. Because new firm births generate a portion of employment growth each month, non-sampling methods must be used to estimate this growth.
    * Earlier research indicated that while both the business birth and death portions of total employment are generally significant, the net contribution is relatively small and stable. To account for this net birth/death portion of total employment, BLS uses an estimation procedure with two components: the first component excludes employment losses from business deaths from sample-based estimation in order to offset the missing employment gains from business births. This is incorporated into the sample-based estimate procedure by simply not reflecting sample units going out of business, but imputing to them the same trend as the other firms in the sample. This step accounts for most of the net birth/death employment.
    * The second component is an ARIMA time series model designed to estimate the residual net birth/death employment not accounted for by the imputation. The historical time series used to create and test the ARIMA model was derived from the UI universe micro level database, and reflects the actual residual net of births and deaths over the past five years.
    * The net birth/death model component figures are unique to each month and exhibit a seasonal pattern that can result in negative adjustments in some months. These models do not attempt to correct for any other potential error sources in the CES estimates such as sampling error or design limitations.
    * Note that the net birth/death figures are not seasonally adjusted, and are applied to the not seasonally adjusted monthly employment estimates to derive the final CES employment estimates.”

  • earlgrey

    That way Michelle looks better (kind of like a bride picking ugly bridesamaids).

    Also explains why they hate Sarah Palin so much. It’s harder to keep talking about how beautiful the First Lady is with Sarah having such a high profile and increasingly influential role in politics.

    That is just my rather catty opinion.

  • Achance

    It is the Party of and for ugly women and even the ones that could be attractive if you fixed them up have such bad dispostions that their personality makes them ugly. I really don’t know how Democrats even manage to breed.

  • eastbaylarry

    according to the government ‘counting’ procedures because I’m ‘working part time’, i.e. underemployed.

    That translates into 8 hours last week and 4 hours this week.

  • eastbaylarry

    according to the government ‘counting’ procedures because I’m ‘working part time’, i.e. underemployed.

    That translates into 8 hours last week and 4 hours this week.

  • erod

    I now hate
    right next to:
    1. Hope
    2. Change
    3. Crisis
    4. Unprecedented
    5. Inhertited
    (In the next three years there will probably be more to follow)

  • erod

    I now hate
    right next to:
    1. Hope
    2. Change
    3. Crisis
    4. Unprecedented
    5. Inhertited
    (In the next three years there will probably be more to follow)

  • JSobieski

    nt

  • leftylurker

    That’s just nuts.

    It’s called Hollywood. It’s pretty left leaning.

  • earlgrey
  • Achance

    greenie “sack lunch” gatherings, and seen the lefty mobbing of the Legislature, the assembly, and other meetings. The only times I’ve ever seen any good looking women among Party types and activists, they were the working girls that somebody had brought in to entertain high-rollers and power brokers at the function.

    Hollywood types don’t count because they’re not the operative/activist type; they’re just famous for being famous and they are dumb enough to be lefties.

  • leftylurker

    I went to school at UCSC, lived in SF, and married a beautiful leftie from Ann Arbor, so I may disagree about those types.

    But I don’t know much about rosie the riveter or the lobbyist for the SPCA, so I’ll give that one to ya.

    =)

  • snowshooze

    They are all made up, and real percentage unemployed falls closer to 20%
    Everyone makes Federal Contributions on their paychecks and we employers shuck out the dough at regular intervals along with our reports. The larger companies have to do so weekly.
    Real employment rates are a matter of record, and these are for all legitimate jobs.
    So… easy enough to subtract the known employed numbers from the available workforce numbers…and there you go. Unemployment numbers. Rather simple math.
    But I do not believe they actually want us to know how bad things really are, they certainly apply a lot of effort trying to gloss over their numbers.
    I see more and more people surviving on the underground economy, barter, trade and direct sales for cash, both goods and labor.
    This percentage must be in direct proportion to those whom have completely fallen off the books as having given up.
    I am sure a portion thereof have gone to welfare and the various social programs but there are certainly many who are not eligible, consider it not worth their time, or are just to proud to accept assistance.
    Either way, weekly federal employer contribution levels would reflect very accurately where the economy is going, and would be pretty hard to dispute.
    If they wanted to tell us the actual unemployment percentage, I am pretty sure they have it in hand already, they just don’t want to admit it.
    Notice now it is July, everyone should be running at full speed ahead, the peak of the season…but we have already topped out on employment levels even using their fabricated numbers and are already backsliding as if construction season was over…
    If they are just trying to conceal the truth until November, they ain’t going to make it. ( Providing they don’t hire 20 million spill workers…)
    This is real trouble

  • Achance

    They call themselves liberal and vote D but it is mostly about abortion. While not many of them will get an abortion, they don’t want to be told that they can’t or shouldn’t so the Ds keep them in their fold that way. The “better” educated ones also have bought a whole bunch of the all men are wannabe wifebeaters crap from the vagitarian professors, so that drives the to the Ds, since the Rs are considered the Party of men, the bad kind of men. But that kind of woman is rarely an activist and barely even a voter. It’s the wymyn who maintain the phone trees and are ready to grab a sign, do a chant, or sing a song I’m talking about and they are all either ugly or so nasty that not even $10K at Saks or Nordstom’s could make them attractive. ‘Course, they’re mostly vagitarians so it doesn’t matter much except they are sometimes competion for the attractive women.

  • saterp

    “So, how is that Keynesian economics thing working out for people, anyway? ”

    Well, they just haven’t spent quite enough yet…but how much is “enough”?

    Googolplex it…

  • texasgalt

    Socialist policies don’t work

  • Wine Country Dog

    is the so-called Summer of Recovery touted by our self-important golfer-in-chief. It was announced on June 17, 2010 and officially died on July 2, 2010. Hey, it didn’t even last through the 4th of July – we didn’t even get a summer holiday weekend out of it!

    I have noticed in recent days there are more and more lefty blogposts proclaiming the overwhelming success of the 0bama presidency. Seems like the word has gone out to make smoke to cover the deliberate bungling of the 0bama regime so the smoke and mirrors machines in the WH are working overtime. The daily bald-faced lies coming from Empty Suit and his sociopath hunchback lab assistants BiteMe, Nancy the Gavel and Harry-who’s-son-won’t-use-the-family-name have long since passed into a bizarre twilight zone of alternate reality. Could we be living in a Harry Turtledove novel?

  • snowshooze

    “Well, I got fix this guys truck today…that will bring in a couple bucks… After that I have to get over to see what I can do on the repair of the neighbors porch, I can save him a bundle. Maybe later, I can take the kids fishing…”
    I think as in this theoretical instance, that the underground economy may be growing. I have personally seen this more and more, perhaps it is just my perception, but, I know several operating like this.
    There’s no benefits, there’s no unemployment, there’s no set hours…
    and there’s no taxes.
    If you have a chance to make it underground, why would you want to get a crummy job for low pay and lose a minimum of 20% right off the top to payroll taxes???
    Cash on the barrel-head, barter and trade and fly by night operators have a certain advantage…
    And many are not eligible for UI, Welfare, are just plain to tired to waste their time trying to get it, or too proud to accept it.
    It would appear to be an interesting strategy in downsizing the government…just don’t play the game. Ignore them. ( Certainly, the IRS is well aware of the problem…)
    I’m not really driving for a point here…but I just wonder how many there are.

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