People are paying a lot of attention to the House right now, but there's something interesting going on in the Senate. And in some ways it should worry the Democrats more.
Let's start by taking a look at Rasmussen's state of the Senate races right now:
U.S. Senate Snapshot:
Assuming that the Leans fall into line, that becomes 49/42 Democrat/Republican*, with nine seats in play: Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Missouri, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Washington, and Wisconsin. The bad news? To win back the Senate, we need to win all those races. The good news**? As Rasmussen notes:
Put it all together, and Republicans are slightly ahead in six of the nine Toss-up states. Two of the races are tied, and the Democratic candidate has the lead in one. This suggests that if the election were held today, the GOP would be favored to pick up a few more than the four seats already moving in their direction.
A lot of people will tell you that +9 GOP in one year is impossible. The same people will then proceed to tell you that +8 Democratic in 2008, right after +6 Democratic in 2006, was as inevitable as the sunrise and in fact was an expression of the laws of physics, all the while never noticing the doublethink necessary to segue from one stance to the other...
*Which represents a +4 GOP pickup on its own (Arkansas, Delaware, Indiana, and North Dakota). Thanks mostly to the President and Congressional leadership, this is a bad year to be a Democrat.
**The better news? My own private list to 51 included Connecticut (Rasmussen: Safe Democratic) and California (Leans Democratic). And I still think that Fiorina is going to pull it out, particularly if Whitman wins the CA governorship.
Crossposted to Moe Lane.