I'd like to note for the record that RedState, like Jim Geraghty, was making encouraging sounds about the Bobby Schilling / Phil Hare race well before the recent (commissioned) poll that shows Schilling leading the incumbent 45/32. Phil Hare, of course, is yet another Democrat who feels entitled to his seat, despite his lack of a knowledge of even the basics of American constitutional theory: we did an interview with Bobby where he let us know that this wasn't the first time that Hare had demonstrated his ignorance for a weary world, either.
Jim has a breakdown of the election numbers; I think that this is probably worth noting, too.
“Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Phil Hare?”
A safe incumbent traditionally has a positive image ratio of 3 to 1, or 60% favorable, 20% unfavorable. Phil Hare’s image rating is “upside down,” with 27% of voters having a favorable opinion of him, and 41% having an unfavorable opinion of him. Men have a very poor image of Phil Hare, with 51% having an unfavorable opinion of him and 25% having a favorable opinion of him. His image among women is better, but not great, with a ratio of slightly worse than 1 to 1, with 28% having a favorable opinion of him and 32% having an unfavorable opinion. Among union households, 30% have a favorable opinion of him and 34% have an unfavorable opinion.
If Phil Hare isn't getting union households to like him...