Stuart Rothenberg is having absolutely none of this preemptive excuse-making that the Democrats are starting to indulge in. You seem the conventional wisdom is now congealing into the notion that of course the Republicans were going to have a great year in 2010, and it was absolutely silly for anybody to think that it was ever in doubt that this would happen:
…Indeed, on Monday’s edition of MSNBC’s “Morning Joe,” host Joe Scarborough, a former GOP Congressman from Florida, echoed that point, asserting that a “realignment” in the House was inevitable this year, even if unemployment were at 4 percent.
The reality is quite different. When I first started talking to Republican and Democratic insiders in December 2008, none of them believed that anything was “inevitable” in November 2010.
Ain’t that the truth.
Now, I am not a ‘Republican insider.’ I’m sure that relieves quite a few people, in fact. But let me remind folks of what I was saying in November of 2008. When I wrote this:
…this is all about getting your head back in the game. We have two years before the 2010 election. We can spend them contemplating our navels, or we can spend them doing useful work in giving the rest of the Party critical information about the building blocks of a future Congressional majority.
…I can assure you that I would not have done so if I thought that we were going to get that future Congressional majority with or without Republican grassroots activism. I didn’t; back then I expected that we would get a combination of incremental change and strategic triangulation from the incoming administration to keep conservatives and center-right types from organizing. It was the obvious and correct move, after all. People didn’t vote for Obama and the Democrats because they suddenly loved big government; they voted for them because they thought that the US would get competent government and an end to divisive domestic politics.
And even the people who were expecting nothing of the sort weren’t necessarily expecting that nothing to be quite so… dramatic.
Now, there are two reasons why the Democrats are pushing this narrative. First off, they don’t particularly want to explain how their original “you’ve got me” rely-on-the-President strategy for 2010 is currently out in the back, in a ditch, and on fire. Second, there are going to be a lot of hungover netrooters on the morning after Election Night, and once they get over being gobsmacked, heartbroken, and vomitous they are going to be very, very angry. Best to lay the groundwork early.
Moe Lane
PS: We can still lose, by the way.
Crossposted to Moe Lane.
Moe Lane
Dan Spencer
Dan McLaughlin
Jeff Emanuel
With Harry Reid
annas Thursday, July 29th at 11:16AM EDT (link)leading Sharon Angle, I can sure see how we can lose in November!!!
not commenting on Nevada race
rdelbov Thursday, July 29th at 11:28AM EDT (link)but with 12 real GOP targets in the senate (DE-WV-PA-IN-IL-WI-ND-AR-CO-NV-WA-CA) and 8 seats to defend (Iowa-LA-NC-OH-KY-NH-OH-MO) we might lose several of these races. If we lose two -say NV & WV (not predicting it) we still get to 51 seats. That would be a huge GOP landslide.
I will also add that a 10 seat senate pickup and a 55 house seat pickup does not mean every race is a landslide. I am convinced we will see a dozen seat races decided by 6% or less plus 30 house races in that range. 52-48 is a narrow win but its still a win.
Reid will spend 25 million this year and believe that will be buy a close race.
Can Rs win close races?
petrarch Thursday, July 29th at 12:09PM EDT (link)Doesn’t history show that Ds almost always win the squeakers, because they can bring in enough cheating in the count to get them over the top? We need a wider margin than they do to be assured of victory.
Not saying it can’t be done, just pointing out a weakness.
Scragged – Conservative Online Opinion Magazine
Depends on who is counting the votes
ceili_dancer (Diary) Thursday, July 29th at 7:34PM EDT (link)They can count and recount until they get the outcome they want. See Washington gov, Minnesota sen. and almost Florida pres., Thank goodness the last ended when it did.
If you want to stick your head in the Corrupt Media's...
JadedByPolitics (Diary) Thursday, July 29th at 12:06PM EDT (link)depiction of Sharron Angle please do but for me and mine she will WIN and she will WIN by 8+ points! So stop doing the water carrying for the Democrats mmmkyyy
Unified Patriots – How-To:
Activists Taking Action
Did you read Erick's post?
earlgrey (Diary) Thursday, July 29th at 12:24PM EDT (link)It is still early.
Personally, I see two things as possibly working in Angle’s favor; the decision in Arizona (it just proves how radical and overreaching the feds are), and as we get closer to election day people will be getting more anxious about the future, and the best way to make a change is to make a change.
I can’t stand when people are over confident. So it is best to not be smug as you indicated above.
Also, I am sort of on a kick now where I encourage people to work with their local GOP to be poll watchers. I am going to miss our local elections and I can’t do it, so my guilt is making me encourage others to consider doing it.
annas what are you doing to ensure we do win
deano64 (Diary) Thursday, July 29th at 1:17PM EDT (link)in November? Have you become Precinct Committeeman yet? If not please check with your local county Republican Party. It may not be too late for you to take action this election cycle and begin to take back the Republican party. If it’s too late to become a precinct committeemen you can certainly help by voluntering for your local Republican GOTV effort.
Precinct Committeeman before it was cool.
“The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public’s money.”
Alexis De Tocqueville
Voter Fraud ?
Joliphant (Diary) Friday, July 30th at 4:28AM EDT (link)Boss tweed
“Remember the first rule of politics. The ballots don’t make the results, the counters make the results. The counters. Keep counting.”
“Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it.”
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
Oddly enough that was also the Gore strategy in 2000 -nt
Joliphant (Diary) Friday, July 30th at 4:29AM EDT (link)nt
“Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it.”
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
I agree 100% Moe
rdelbov Thursday, July 29th at 11:21AM EDT (link)In early 2009 the democrats seemed posed to pick up 3 to 4 senate seats–the house incumbents on the democrat side looked safe plus on the state level only modest gains looked possible on the GOP side.
What a stunning turnaround. Yes the econ situation is a huge GOP plus but the lefty agenda in DC created a tidal wave of grassroots disgust.
I can absolutely tell you that in early 2009 the GOP/conservatives were glum-not quite hopeless but glum.
Speak for yourself, please, rdelbov.
acat (Diary) Thursday, July 29th at 1:34PM EDT (link)My mood in 2009 was not glum. It was pissed off, and looking around for a way to turn anger into action.
Looking around Red State, which I found about this time last year, I’d say “glum” was the minority opinion among conservatives.
I will not attempt to speak for the gutless RINOs who got us here in the first place. I will, however, work to vote as many out as possible.
Mew
——
Caveat Suffragator
My reference to
rdelbov Thursday, July 29th at 2:39PM EDT (link)glum was purely political and not personal. I tend to be a sunny optimist and always pleasant. I am sinner saved by Grace so I don’t get gloom.
In early 2009 with GOP open seats in NH-OH-FL-MO plus problems in LA with Vitter and low poll numbers in NC the republican senate prospects seem horrible.
I would say your feeling of anger is very typical here at Redstate. On personal level I have noticed that many people here are apt to say unkind and unfriendly remarks here-especially if they disagree with you. So Yes I can believe you were and anger and mad in 2009
If ec. is still in the tank in 2011, the Dems.' anger
renny (Diary) Thursday, July 29th at 11:55AM EDT (link)will not make up for the real grass roots’ effect the DC ruling class will feel.
Consider, if we have gasoline at $4 or better next summer (drilling halts and oil refinery closings), there will be ordinary citizens, not tea party or in any other way political, knocking on Senator’s office doors.
If we still have unemployment over 9%, much of the MSM will discover nothing Obamanation has done has improved economics.
Additonally, the Bush tax cuts will lapse–I cannot see this bunch renewing them–and “health care” taxes will be kicking in–taxes on wheelchairs (yadda), increases in Medicare deductions (no COLA for Soc. Sec.), and Congress will be deep in “talks” of a VAT (can Reps. avoid that?).
If the ec. does not significantly improve and the “war on terror” excalates in any way, Dem. anger will be impotent. We’ll just hear more idiot quotes from Olbermann.
If this week's cover of TIME doesn't increase the war on terror, nothing will
Teresa in Fort Worth, TX (Diary) Thursday, July 29th at 1:13PM EDT (link)TIME is actually starting to carry stories about the plight of the Afghani citizens – especially women – and how bad it will be if the Taliban returns. If that doesn’t get the Dems banging war drums, nothing will…….
Cover picture:
http://img.timeinc.net/time/daily/2010/1007/time_cover_0809.jpg
Accompanying article:
http://www.time.com/time/photogallery/0,29307,2007161_2170314,00.html
Fasten your seatbelts, it’s going to be a bumpy ride…..
Dems no longer read Time, they now prefer Newsweek. [nt]
acat (Diary) Thursday, July 29th at 1:35PM EDT (link)——
Caveat Suffragator
Tea party is mostly non-political types
california_red Thursday, July 29th at 2:03PM EDT (link)Most of the peopel I have seen/met at small tea party gatherings have never been political. Most have been tuned out, soccer mom types that have woken up. I think the Tea Party is the ordinary citizen movement and then the political class jumped on board and tried to co-opt the brand.
I like your comment about groundwork.
BA Cyclone (Diary) Thursday, July 29th at 12:05PM EDT (link)Commonly we refer to 2010 and 2012 – but we all surely know that the depth and breadth that the tyranny the socialists have assured us with over the past 50 years will take more than 2 elections to unwind. And for many years, the GOP has been at the table of compromise.
And “the enemy” will not lie down in this fight for Liberty, any more than they have for the past 100 years. We might have been energized to restore the Liberty that has been lost, but the momentum is against us.
“If Congress can do whatever in their discretion can be done by money, and will promote the General Welfare, the Government is no longer a limited one, possessing enumerated powers, but an indefinite one, subject to particular exceptions.” — James Madison
“Electing Republicans who don’t have the courage of their convictions may be easier in some circumstances, but it won’t save our country.” — Jim DeMint
BA Cyclone’s blog
BA Cyclone on Twitter
Ditto-- need a sustained effort and different republican mindset to turn things around
earlgrey (Diary) Thursday, July 29th at 3:57PM EDT (link)It is starting from the bottom up with people over and over again coming out as conservatives, and re-energized to stand by their beliefs, but it will take years to change the narrative (conservatives- bad; democrats-good) and groom the leaders that will stand for the principles that made this country great.
I like your comment about groundwork.
BA Cyclone (Diary) Thursday, July 29th at 12:05PM EDT (link)Commonly we refer to 2010 and 2012 – but we all surely know that the depth and breadth that the tyranny the socialists have assured us with over the past 50 years will take more than 2 elections to unwind. And for many years, the GOP has been at the table of compromise.
And “the enemy” will not lie down in this fight for Liberty, any more than they have for the past 100 years. We might have been energized to restore the Liberty that has been lost, but the momentum is against us.
“If Congress can do whatever in their discretion can be done by money, and will promote the General Welfare, the Government is no longer a limited one, possessing enumerated powers, but an indefinite one, subject to particular exceptions.” — James Madison
“Electing Republicans who don’t have the courage of their convictions may be easier in some circumstances, but it won’t save our country.” — Jim DeMint
BA Cyclone’s blog
BA Cyclone on Twitter
What About Voter Fraud?
bert2008 Thursday, July 29th at 12:09PM EDT (link)My fear is losing due to voter fraud. With dems controlling both house, the presidency, all government agencies and the media what’s to stop them from rigging the election? They have Acorn ready to act in November. I think this is very likely. Think Al Franken!
If it isn't close, they can't cheat
Dave_in_Fla (Diary) Thursday, July 29th at 12:16PM EDT (link)Just don’t let them get close. Which mean GOTV will be more important than ever.
“If they were merely incompetent, then at least SOME of their actions would have been to the benefit of the country.” – Joe McCarthy
I just read a bunch of comments over on 538...
Dave_in_Fla (Diary) Thursday, July 29th at 12:15PM EDT (link)And the posters there sound EXACTLY like we did before the 2006 and 2008 elections.
I’m tempted to find PARep and go “lift their spirits”
“If they were merely incompetent, then at least SOME of their actions would have been to the benefit of the country.” – Joe McCarthy
ROTFLAMO....
JadedByPolitics (Diary) Thursday, July 29th at 12:26PM EDT (link)Can you feel it? hell yeah you can, this is EXACTLY how it was on the left in 06 & 08! 2010 & 12 are OURS (Conservatives) for the taking if everyone just man’s up!
Unified Patriots – How-To:
Activists Taking Action
Well, having been in their shoes
Dave_in_Fla (Diary) Thursday, July 29th at 12:50PM EDT (link)I know all the arguments on “why the polls are wrong”. I ought to dust off a few diaries and post them to “lift their spirits”
It would be the Christian thing to do *evil smile*
“If they were merely incompetent, then at least SOME of their actions would have been to the benefit of the country.” – Joe McCarthy
Are they fired up or glum?, pardon my ignorance. nt.
earlgrey (Diary) Thursday, July 29th at 12:27PM EDT (link)They're In Denial
IJB Thursday, July 29th at 12:46PM EDT (link)I’ve been to both 538, and places like Politico and WaPo’s comment boards, and the message from the Left is pretty much exactly what some of us were saying in 2008:
Basically, they’ll cherry-pick the one poll out of *10* (e.g. Gallup) that shows them ahead, and then they’ll say things like, “Just ignore the other 9 polls! They use robocalling (esp. Rasmussen!!) so they can’t be trusted! Gallup talks to real live voters, and they’ve been doing this for 60 years! So they must be right!!” All the while ignoring what many of us (e.g. Jay Cost) have been saying about Gallup’s polling, not to mention ignoring 9 out of 10 polls (always a bad idea…).
So, yeah – they’re in total denial.
At the rate they’re going, November 3 is going to be a sweet, sweet day on the political message boards if you’re on our side of the ditch…
They are in denial
Dave_in_Fla (Diary) Thursday, July 29th at 12:47PM EDT (link)“Things aren’t really that bad”
“I can’t wait for all the pundits to be proven wrong”
“The GOP/teabaggers are peaking early”
“If they were merely incompetent, then at least SOME of their actions would have been to the benefit of the country.” – Joe McCarthy
We need to put an end to plans for a lame duck session.-How?
honorable (Diary) Thursday, July 29th at 12:40PM EDT (link)Brian,
Assuming that Republicans win back the majority in the Senate- a big if, Harry Reid will still be the Majority leader till the new Congress in convened in early Jan. So am I wrong in saying that Harry Reid can call a lame duck session in December and try to pass these bills?
The Answer Is Filibustering
IJB Thursday, July 29th at 12:48PM EDT (link)At least 2 seats (IL & WV) will flip immediately upon completion of the election – if we, say, win IL, Senate GOP numbers will immediately be at 42 at that point (i.e. as of Nov. 10-ish).
It should actually be pretty easy to hold the entire GOP conference together on Filibusters on that point, on the principle of “Important matters shouldn’t be decided before the new Congress.”
but you foget the conference trick
california_red Thursday, July 29th at 2:07PM EDT (link)That is why they want to get shell bills passed before the election so they can put them in conference during the lame duck session. Then to come out of conference with the changes, you just need a majority vote.
Conference Reports Can Be Filibustered
IJB Thursday, July 29th at 3:38PM EDT (link)So that won’t work.
At best, the only things the Dems could pass in a lame-duck session with a just-50+1 vote is budgetary stuff (e.g. tax increases), but those can be repealed the exact same way if the GOP takes control of Congress.
No they can't.
cwilson (Diary) Thursday, July 29th at 8:21PM EDT (link)You still need 2/3 to override a veto. So, once THIS congress passes anything — majority vote or not — it STAYS until Jan 20, 2013.
If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude than the animated contest of freedom — go home from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains sit lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen! –Samuel Adams
Not Exactly - I'd Love To See Obama Veto a Budget Bill and Shutdown The Government...
IJB Thursday, July 29th at 8:38PM EDT (link)…On the pretext of keeping higher taxes and higher spending.
It’ll go over well for him – like a lead balloon!
HCR and legislative issues like that are another matter – you’re right: they can’t be fully repealed (though they can be ‘zeroed out’ in a budget) until after Obama is gone.
But, on the budget front, there’s not a whole lot Obama can do, unless he wants to see his favorability ratings plummet into the 30s or 20s!…
What makes you think that would turn out differently than...
cwilson (Diary) Friday, July 30th at 10:40AM EDT (link)when Newt tried to face off Clinton? That episode didn’t turn out well for the Republican Congress.
If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude than the animated contest of freedom — go home from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains sit lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen! –Samuel Adams
Tell You What - Let's Put Some Money Down On This One
IJB Friday, July 30th at 11:48AM EDT (link)Because it absolutely *will* turn out differently this time…
Never underestimate
cwilson (Diary) Sunday, August 1st at 8:56AM EDT (link)the wimp factor of Republican officeholders. And the power of an in-the-tank press core to act as stenographers for their preferred party’s spin.
Optimism and what we all HOPE would be true, vs. the Republican officeholders’ long-established incompetence and spinelessness? And we’re pretty sure the Maine Twins, Brown, and Lindsey McGrahamnesty are all still going to be in the Senate next term…(Brown gets a free pass, but I’m not counting on his support for anything except Health Care).
Combine that with a press core that — while no longer in love with Obama as they once were — now has a personal motive for slavish devotion to the party line: they’ve gone ALL-IN. If he goes down, they go down.
Yeah, sadly, I think I will predict spinelessness with regards to an actual “budget showdown” if it ever comes to that, and mindbogglingly dishonest, Administration-slanted press coverage of any showdown. I expect, to avoid it, the Republicans will try to tweak things on the edges and hold the line as much as they can until 2013. Heck, they won’t even be able to pass laws telling the Regulatory Agencies and Obama’s E.O.’s where to stick ‘em, because they won’t have the ability to override his veto of their law saying “no you can’t do that”.
If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude than the animated contest of freedom — go home from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains sit lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen! –Samuel Adams
Dare them to.
Steph C (Diary) Thursday, July 29th at 12:55PM EDT (link)A lot of these congress critters do, what I call, district hopping. When prospect dim, or they’re defeated by an opponent, in one district they move on to another where the grass is greener, so to speak.
A lame duck session against the will of the people won’t go over very well and will sound the death knell to that sort of thing because it will all be fodder for their opposition. The country is awakening and becoming involved. They’re already going to have a tough time explaining their record as it stands.
But then, Democrats do have a tendency to throw gasoline on a fire, don’t they?
“[I]f the public are bound to yield obedience to laws to which they cannot give their approbation, they are slaves to those who make such laws and enforce them.” –Candidus in the Boston Gazette, 1772
Hillbilly Politics
Remind Class I Senators...
Moe Lane (Diary) Thursday, July 29th at 1:19PM EDT (link)…that they’re up for re-election in two years, and ask them if they want to get started on being defeated early.
The Kim Kardashian of blogging.
Check out my blog at http://moelane.com/.
http://moelane.com/filthy-lucre-filthy-lucre/
http://twitter.com/moelane
My (combined) wish list.
The Thumpin' was always a good probability.
The_Gadfly (Diary) Thursday, July 29th at 1:24PM EDT (link)The problem was the complete conversion to Socialism was an equally good probability. I think Art was correct in his analysis: if The Big 0 had passed card check the rest would have fallen into place. Dissipating his momentum on Guantanamo and then Healthcare was a mistake that may have saved the Republic. People wanted the war in Iraq ended, but knew the bad guys in Gitmo need to stay there and not be given ACLU lawyers for trials here in the States. Healthcare is always a tough nut, and was the end of the previous Big Mo Dem’s ambitions. Card check in front of them likely would have passed. With that in the bag, the rest of the votes would have been easier for the leftists. Because once the details of what they were actually doing started permeating the mind of Americans, it would engender exactly the kind of backlash they are getting.
Which isn’t to say professional pols, or even most of us amateurs, were not cognizant of it at the time. More importantly, it doesn’t reduce the importance of your call for base building. The quality of the results of the backlash will vary greatly depending upon our preparedness and ability to move ideas forward.
I remember left wingers on other forums saying...
kyle8 (Diary) Thursday, July 29th at 5:22PM EDT (link)They would laugh me to scorn when the Obama stimulus and medical bill lowered the deficit, ended the recession, and brought us prosperity.
I kid you not, they actually said that.
more than one of them.
“Nothing works like freedom, Nothing succeeds like liberty”
Kyle
After the fall of the USSR, the left said
renny (Diary) Thursday, July 29th at 8:52PM EDT (link)they knew it all the time. It had nothing to do with Reagan. Yadda.
Except that they went apoplectic over missile defense in Europe (we’d be starting WW III), anti-missle defense would “de-stabilize” MAD, and couldn’t we all just get along with the evil empire which didn’t sound too much like they thought in two or three years the whole system would implode.
It’s always been there, done that, let’s move on, so that the famous net site is perfectly attuned to the milieu’s historic attitude. THEY ARE NEVER WRONG.
The left's knowledge of the "inevitable" decline of the USSR
aesthete (Diary) Thursday, July 29th at 9:16PM EDT (link)is apparently the most zealously guarded cult prophecy in the world: I have yet to find a liberal in the 80s who thought that the USSR would collapse. There’s a reason Reagan made a point of repudiating containment and detente.
“It is a popular delusion that the government wastes vast amounts of money through inefficiency and sloth. Enormous effort and elaborate planning are required to waste this much money.”
-P.J. O’Rourke
Man you got that right!
kyle8 (Diary) Thursday, July 29th at 11:01PM EDT (link)And let us not forget that it was none other than Democratic foreign policy “expert” Joe Biden who was urging us to make deals with the Soviet Union only a few months from it’s total collapse.
The only person who was more consistently wrong about the Soviet Union throughout the cold war was Strobe Talbot, And he was rewarded by being made a deputy secretary of state.
“Nothing works like freedom, Nothing succeeds like liberty”
Kyle
I see no harm in encouraging this "inevitabilty" meme
Adjoran (Diary) Friday, July 30th at 2:00AM EDT (link)Democrats in recent history have been less motivated to turn out in most midterms, as their most faithful constituencies include minorities, single women, and young people, who are among the least likely groups to turn out in midterms. Unions experience less of a drop because of their discipline, but something of one anyway.
The more they can be allowed to convince themselves that resistance is futile, the less likely they will be to show up and vote in a few weeks.
So, yeah, dudes, it’s like fate, man, the ebb and flow of historical cycles, you dig? Chill out and let the world go ’round . . .