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Minorities and the GOP: not yet DOOM?

By: Moe Lane (Diary)  |  August 2nd, 2010 at 12:00 PM  | 

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Sean Trende over at RCP finds something interesting going on with minority polling.  The basic numbers at the heart of what may or may not be an important trend are these: the exit poll numbers for 2004/2008.

2004 2008
Voters GOP Dem GOP Dem
African American 10 89 5 93
Hispanic 44 55 29 68

As Sean notes, how these numbers shake out in future elections determines how much of the white vote each party generally needs to win.  Using 2008 numbers, the GOP’s target number for white voters is apparently 60%, which is a number that gives Democrats some comfort.

So Sean looked at three recent polls that looked at voter racial demographics: Quinnipiac, PPP, and CNN.  In the first two, the tentative conclusion that can be reached is that the Democrats have lost their 2008 advantage and fallen back to 2004 levels*, but that the GOP has not yet recovered its numbers from 2004.  This is not actually bad news for the GOP – it supports the argument that 2008 was an one-off, not a realignment – but then there’s the CNN results:

African American 14 82 14 82
Hispanic 39 54 39 54
Drop, AA 4 -7 9 -11
Drop, Hispanic -5 -1 10 -14

These numbers show an actual increase in African-American support for the GOP overall since 2004, and a significant drop in Hispanic support for Democrats since 2008, coupled to the GOP’s halfway recovery of its 2004 support.  In other words, while all three polls hurt the narrative that the Democratic party has permanently won over minority voters, the CNN poll does the most damage to the related narrative that the GOP has permanently wrecked its standing with those voters.

So, what does it mean?  Well, even if you don’t want to accept the thought that maybe the Republican party isn’t quite doomed when it comes to minority outreach, these polls do make it fairly clear that any election scenario that expects the same kind of demographic breakdown as 2008′s is suspect.  And before you ask: all three of those polls were done during the middle of July, which means that they were done while the Arizona debate was still going on.  If the Democrats’ goal was to keep minority enthusiasm for Democratic candidates elevated via selective demagoguery, that goal failed miserably.

Moe Lane

*As Sean put it: “…PPP finds that Hispanics favor the Democratic candidate 58-21, while African Americans break 83-8. Quinnipiac finds a 83-3 split among blacks and a 55-27 split among Hispanics.”
Crossposted to Moe Lane.

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  • renny

    black man from Rochester, NY, who with double PhDs in computers and hydrology works for the EPA in DC,was a vehement Obama supporter early on. He now says he would never vote for the man, again.

    But he’s educated and thoughtful. The problem is the inner cities with masses of ueducated or poorly educated minorities dominate many states with their votes. They need to be reached by Rep./cons. candidates who must go into the slums and ghettos and risk some
    MSM calling him/her a racist for simply campaigning. Altho’ McCain took 85% of the counties in the US, he carried NO cities. Pittsburgh, Phila., and Harrisburg can swing PA to the Dems. despite the suburban and rural Reps.

    The inroads need to be made in the cities, AND poll sitters and officials in urban areas need to be watchful and brave in administering voting law in Nov. Go to Rep. headquarters and volunteer to be a poll challenger or judge (the latter gets a stipend from the county or state), so that voters are not threatened by the
    likes of the Black Panthers in Phila, and cannot promote voter fraud, like the busloads ACORN dumped at polls in 2008 to vote en masse.

  • msctex

    If Conservatives could find a way to push one idea, one sociological/historical concept, it could turn the tide with the Hispanic vote:

    “Democrats: Look What They’ve Done for Black People”

    Obviously, the language could and should be different, but that’s the gist of the thing. And if we want to win elections and put down the Socialists once and for all, we cannot be afraid to play hardball, assuming this even qualifies. Because there is nothing racist, dirty, mean or untrue in this idea. African-Americans won their equal standing in this nation and were immediately set upon by white Liberals offering destructive brands of Help, which destroyed their family unit. Hopefully the Latinos can be made to learn from history, or it will repeat itself.

  • Kentucky Scott

    Renny you are right on this. I have been wondering for some time why conservatives do not seek out opportunities to speak in the inner cities without a filter. The Democrats have been screwing up so many cities for generations that the education message would be easy. Imagine Sarah Palin hosting townhalls in inner city Detroit, Chicago or Washington DC. Even if she gets only 1 in 20 thinking at first, that is enough to start breaking the backs of Democrats in statewide races. This would have the political machines in these cities apocalyptic that she dare try to speak directly to “their” people.

  • renny

    and sexual revolution promoted by the underpinning of welfare has broken the black family so the the community now has 73% illegtimacy, 25% unemployment, 50-60% school dropout rates in Newark, NJ, and DC, for instance, and 43% of black women believe they will never marry today. Why these people turn time and again to Dems. is inexplicable.

    Blacks were Reps. until FDR (the party of Lincoln) but were seduced by gov’t programs and dependence since the 1930s.

    Although there is a growing black middle class, it is a minority within a minority and often disconnected from the “street” or “ghetto” blacks so celebrated in rap and hip hop. But the black middle class is where the GOP should make appeals effective.

  • burbmom

    Presidential candidate to win the white vote and lose the election. Reaching out to the minority voter is going to become even more important. I started getting more involved over the past year and can’t emphasize enough how we need to get out of our comfort zone. The meetings I’m attending are at steakhouses and country clubs. Think of the impact if we could reach out and meet at community and rec centers in predominantly minority areas. Ragingelephants.org is on a mission to educate and inform voters to turn these stats around.

  • rdelbov

    be the year of the Hispanic candidate as Rubio-Martinez(NM) and Sandoval are top flight conservatives running for statewide office in marquee races.

    Where are the top flight democrat Hispanic candidates running statewide. Well at least the governor of Colorado appointed a Hispanic person to fill the seat of Salazar in CO. No a white male that spot. The Obama/Burris seat will be filled by an AA right on the democratic side right?? No a corrupt banker has been slated for that seat. The democrats have shafted minorities for state wide races this year.

    For that matter more GOP women are slated for open senate and Gov races this year.

    I think voters notice this trend as the democrat party-at least the face of its candidates-are turning more white and more male.

  • ritaok

    It’s been a marvel to watch a black audience listen to black history live on Glenn Beck. Especially when Beck uses original sources over secondary sources that clearly show the respect held for black heroes by the whites in earlier years, and demonstrating that the black/white divide was rather manufactured to suit the needs of the democrats. There was too much to mention here, but more coming and such a shake up for all of us viewers to learn right along side our black friends.

    Teaching openly is the key, and not in basements. Courage begets courage as far as I can tell.

  • earlgrey

    It seems like a form of surrender. We must be careful with our funds, but having good candidates out there spreading the message is important for the long term message (IMHO).

    It is kind of like a company that keeps focusing on quarterly results and forgets to plan for long term growth. Little by little, conservatives and GOP have surrendered districts/states because of the odds. That has hurt us by abandoning the opportunity to spread a message. In my opinion.

  • Castor

    A lot will depend on who?s psyched up and raring to go on November 2 and who?s not.

  • jeffreywturner

    A clear message should be sent to latino voters in the US that if they wish to have the types of schools that black folks have gotten for themselves with their half-century of block-voting for Dems and complete Dem dominance of all of the inner-city school boards, etc., then by all means continue to vote Democrat.

  • NoDoze

    that everyone should take a look at.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VVzJ2RIlUwE

    David Barton has much more information of this type in his book, “America in Black and White.” There are also many more videos with related information.

  • msctex

    Yeah, the specifics could be a list as long as your arm. Schools, relative quality of medical care, relative quality of housing, income, retirement income. . .

    God, it really amounts to a higher level of quality of every aspect of life in this country being systematically denied to one group, due to the priorities and values of one political party. Amazing.

    And it appears racist to ask why the hell they don’t realize what has happened.

  • mriggio

    specifically here. To a lesser extent, so have I. Many of the inner-city folks are receptive to the conservative message. It’s a shame they so seldom get to hear it from the horse’s mouth.
    Cheers!

  • Tbone

    It’s the Hispanics that need to be told to look at the black community and told that is you in 25 years under the Democrats. If that’s what Hispanics want for their kids and grand kids, this Country is doomed to becoming Norte Mexico.

  • Ausonius

    should be a natural fit!

    When one considers the fundamental message from the religion, how on earth atheistic, pro-immorality Dems keep obtaining such a large percentage of that vote is beyond me.

    Conservative Republicans need to be asking for time in such churches to make their case that a vote for a Dem is a vote AGAINST the Bible and everything the Bible stands for.

    Other Bible-based fundamentalist religions should also be receptive.

  • aesthete

    They’re not quite the hopeless cause that blacks have, unfortunately, become.

  • Doc Holliday

    have been working to demonize Republicans in the hispanic community. If we get 44% this year, it will be a miracle in the order of some type of spontaneous sagacity for a certain self-identified interest group.

  • aesthete

    It helps that Republicans are as atonal as a group can be in terms of outreach, and that several of their members say truly stupid things that are anathema to message control (I cringe at the many tirades that pols go on concerning Mexican culture, food, bilingual-ness, and the use of Spanish in public). Remember that the Irish were, at one time, incredibly tied to the patronage state. The fact that hispanics are less polarized than the Irish were at the outset is encouraging news.

  • Doc Holliday

    of course I am only talking about the good stuff, many places don’t have it

    I am coming around to the idea that we must do some type of “outreach” even though I have criticized this idea in the past. While I still believe our views should be universally embraced and that it is the job of the citizen to educate himself, in some cases this is just not enough.

    Sometimes in life you have to fight back even though you don’t feel the need to prove something that in inherently correct and should be universally understood. So I agree we should reach out to hispanics, but we should never compromise our ideals in doing so, if we do that, we lose much more than we gain.

  • Doc Holliday

    I responded positively to the idea of outreach, but I don’t accept your premise. Where are Republicans attacking Mexican culture, food, etc? Also, we need to grow a spine and realize we can not control every person with our political affiliation. We are fighting for the idea of liberty, this idea can not be tarnished by anyone, ever.

  • aesthete

    Many of the hispanics out there don’t have the cultural or political framework to respond positively to arguments concerning the free market. To give you an example, my dad, who was in the USAF for 20+ years, and exposed to US culture for as many, voted Republican for national security and social conservative reasons, but didn’t really consider that there might be an alternative to the patronage states so common in Latin America. It’s only within the last year, and after a couple of conversations with him, that he was able to comprehend that winners and losers could be chosen by the free market system, and that the government choosing those winners and losers was not the only option. (Kind of nice that I had Obama as an example for that.)

    Many of our pols and media people assume that those being reached know what the free market is: the truth is, most people have a distorted view of capitalism as a system wherein capital formers are rewarded by the government. As such, they respond to an argument for the free market as a Zoroastorian might respond to an argument against Christian Arianism: with a hearty, “Huh?” Many hispanics do like the US, but believe that its success was sheerly the result of its citizens’ work ethic or morality. This is at its core true, and can be used to illustrate the virtues of letting people create wealth, but without free markets and the rule of law, would not have been as conducive to wealth as it was. It’s not about compromising our ideals, it’s about illustrating them and explaining them in a manner conducive to understanding (and showing how they and others benefit), and leaving aside stuff that isn’t relevant. The trans-fat and salt issue is perfect: ethnic food isn’t exactly devoid of those two components (mmm…).

    And yes, Mexican food appreciation should be a litmus test for conservatives. There’s more to Mexican food than Taco Bell! (I kid…)

  • Scope

    as to why you chose the posting name of aesthete. Is there any significance to that choice?

  • aesthete

    Pat Buchanan, pretty much the whole nativist crowd. Some Southern politicians really push it (the idiot from S Carolina who called Haley a “raghead” comes to mind as one of the more extreme cases). Quite a few of those on the anti-immigration side (not all, but a non-trivial amount) make unqualified statements that seem to pit Americans against all Mexicans, and it makes us look like all opposition to illegal immigration comes from crackpots and racists, especially when such influences aren’t noticed by more mainstream voices. It’s sort of like the socialist, anti-Christian, anti-white, anti-Semitic, and 9/11 Truther voices in the Democratic party: they may not be the majority, but they sure are loud and present, and if we don’t disassociate from them, they are our de facto representatives, whether we want them to be or not. That bodes poorly for our outreach efforts, and we should find some way to deal with it without becoming PC or co-opting stupidity in the name of “tolerance”.

  • aesthete

    I’m interested in design, art, and other “aesthetically” oriented hobbies. I’ve also always found the role of beauty in higher-level mathematics interesting. “Aesthete” is a nice handle that expresses that, and I mostly don’t have to worry about it being taken on another site. What’s the story behind your username?

  • Tbone

    :-)

  • Doc Holliday

    who just assume the North was full of tolerant people while the South was full of racists after the Civil War. the reality is that most northerners were racist, they just did not have to confront it because their were no blacks there.

    My point is there are a lot of people who don’t live near the border or for other reasons don’t believe they are affected by illegal immigration. Of course we all are affected by a broken border with an outlaw state. We are affected by a lower quality of life for our children, that sums it up I think.

    I think most Americans of hispanic heritage that live near the border do care about the illegal invasion. Then you have those that live in their own dream world, they think anything the demonized old white males support must be bad for them. They want change, they want a reOlution, the O standing for Obama. They think they are rebels but really are just go with the flow, mind numbed robots.

    You can choose to disassociate yourself from every crackpot that pops up, and in general I am with you. But if you fixate on this aberration, it will consume you and will never end. My plan is to push for ideas of liberty and show why they are the right ideas. I don’t need universal human perfection to prove my case. In fact, if there were universal human perfection, liberty would probably not be so vital.

    One of the greatest things liberty does for me is allow me to live my life as I choose regardless of the sins of other men. I have enough of my own, I don’t need others to push their flaws into my life.

  • Doc Holliday

    and that is cool. But I still say you are referring to a very small minority of conservatives. Buchanan does”t even claim to be part of the modern Republican party. Tancredo is right about a lot of things but has left the reservation and now is a danger to our success. What exactly did Tancredo say that was wrong? He opposes illegal immigration, so do I. The guy that called Haley a raghead is a nothing, if anything he helped her.

    Anyway, I don’t want to get into a fight with you, I think we agree on the principles. I want a secure border and fairness in immigration. I think fairness means every nation has a chance, not just one that bull rushes our home. And most importantly, we have to secure the border because of the out of control crime, crime that is taking on a military dimension.

    I believe conservative ideals are the best for not just letting immigrants come here, but for ALLOWING THEM THE OPPORTUNITY TO FLOURISH ONCE THEY GET HERE. See the left only cares about letting everyone in because they think it will win them elections. They don’t care about helping people flourish, if that happens, they might become Republicans.

  • Doc Holliday

    this might not be the best video, he did a great one twice called “free to choose”. I think a basic understanding of these principles is required to understand capitalism and freedom. Of course the average American student of every background wouldn’t know this guy from a hole in the ground.

  • JSobieski

    Statisically speaking, the 9/11 truthers were hitting percentages in the realm of 25%. 25% of the Republican party is comprised of immigrants or first generation americans.

    Pat Buchanan stopped being a Republican years ago. Tancredo spent far more time talking about illegal immigration than legal immigration.

    You mentioned 2 specific names!!!! Neither currently holds any office. Neither is currently a Republican (Tancredo is running as an independent, and Buchanan left the Republican party in 2000). This is the equivalent of saying that the friend of a candidate’s former roommate has a cousin who stole your baseball cards.

    I am not against immigration. However, I am against those who claim we have no right to control our borders and deny people entrance to the country. Its as much the entitlement mentality that I am against as anything else. Don’t think Jihadists won’t come across our southern border. The Hezbos are already teaming up with FARC in Latin America, so its only a matter of time.

    You can’t point to a single diary on Red State exhibiting racist language on the immigration issue. Yet you insist we need to denounce those voices? Which voices? Who are these straw men?

  • Scope

    as I have posted here in some cases, the S represents Sandy. There really wasn’t any high thinking in it. Nice old fashioned name.

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

    5

  • aesthete

    I was either thinking mouthwash (a la TBone), or like a monocular.

  • aesthete

    and, IMO, they don’t need to make any statements to that effect, given that they already do what I suggest Republicans do (namely, repudiate racist diaries and comments when they appear, and ban users who post such sentiments). The “we” in question was Republicans, particularly those involved in outreach. The mini-thread was started as a discussion of what Republicans can do to make sure Hispanics don’t go Democrat in large measure. I think that that is one thing they can do, and you can freely disagree with me.

  • aesthete

    Currently enjoying some soup while on break, and I always appreciate honest disagreement. I don’t think that you, or anyone on this thread, really needs to “apologize” for anything — I’m not that PC! I love the South: lived in Georgia for three years, and I had a great time. It’s… eh… colorful politicians, and the fringe movements, are things that the national party and its outreach haven’t really learned to address without sounding like PC, lawyerly douches, IMO. Promoting the observance of law and order, though ultimately valid, is going to attract racists for the same reason that opposition to our special relationship with Israel, no matter the intent or validity behind it, is going to attract anti-Semites. We can either go the Ron Paul route and ignore that such support is ongoing, or we can find a way to address it in such a way that it doesn’t compromise our principles. Fred Thompson is a great example of what I’m talking about: his presentation of the immigration issue was based on fact, and didn’t rely on generalization or innuendo. That had the advantage of both asserting the value of facts over anecdote and rhetoric, and making the divide between racists and himself that much more apparent. It’s not so much a policy disagreement as it is a rhetorical, strategic disagreement with how the Republican party presents its views on immigration, and with whom it chooses to associate.

  • Doc Holliday

    converts from all sections of society, no argument there. Of course Republicans do not only have to defeat Democrats, they have to defeat the power of a multitude of interests that hate our nations intended values.

    Sure, we could whine about how unfair the situation is, but that will not produce victory. Somehow, some way, we must get people like those who produced the Reagan Revolution, and not like those who produced the Bush/Frist debacle. The debacle was not Bush himself, but the state in which he left the party.

    I am not so worried about alienating hispanics over immigration. I think the terror on the border proves our case to most who are willing to be persuaded. At the same time, we should reach out to hispanics to show them our ideas are better for their future. But we don’t need to do it as the Dem’s do, by setting one group against another. We just need to give these people the information, but the gatekeeper is powerful and will do anything to keep that information from being passed.

  • cactusjack

    To the RINOs and establishment Republicans, Joseph Cao is a quaint accident, nothing to bother about, “yes we really should send someone down there sometime to visit him and see how he’s doing, pass the brie.” To…others….on the conservative side, the lightning strike that put him in Cold Cash Jefferson’s seat is an unvarnished opportunity. If we prepare, and do the mental reconditioning necessary, and are watching for them instead of ignoring them, maybe some more of these lightning strikes will be coming our way in Nov and again in 2014 and we will be ready to take them quickly into the fold. Cao’s district is, in proclivities, deep, deep Blue. Can anyone tell me how it’s going to hurt to be nominally red for a couple of years? –nowhere to go but up with this opportunity.

  • Doc Holliday

    if that requires looking at the glass as half empty, then let it be so. Republicans have the wind at their backs in that they are likely to pick up seats. But limiting a victory is the same as a loss. If we do the least we can do, then our result will be the LEAST we can do.

    CAO doesn’t bother me a bit. What bothers me is that Wall Street still is giving more cash to the Dems, even after being pilloried for 18 months. What bothers me is we are arguing with the NRA (for good reason), we are distracted by the Demonrat race card, and we have a tea party that seemed to peak about 6 months ago and is now starting to split into camps.

    I don’t want to just defeat the hun, I want to crush the hun and use him to grease our tank tracks!

  • noufa

    Our rhetoric about ?getting government out of the way? can sound like a lack of interest in carrying out the legitimate duties of government. Sometimes such rhetoric misses that wonderful non-governmental civic institutions, like the Black Church & the black family, have been under assault (mostly by Democrats) in America. The government should be used to sustain, not replace, these institutions. No need for handouts. Just use the force of government to arbitrate disputes in good faith.

    I think I understand the disconnect with Southern Baptists. Their congregations are loosely organized. The Catholic Church has a more formal structure. It?s easier to reach out to Catholics. And their structure fills many civic needs. IMHO, this is why black Catholic men are more likely to be Republicans than any other black religious group. Sorry, I wish I had a link to document this point. But see Clarence Thomas, Alan Keyes & Michael Steele. Although I am not Catholic, I have the utmost respect for that faith & think the Republican Party is smart to reach out to them.

    I am not dismissing Baptists. Far from it. I think we need to find more ways to sustain these loosely organized units. A good first step is simply showing up & talking to local leaders. It?s easier to build bridges at this level. Thanks for the links, mrriggio!

    This is anecdotal, but my experience has been that the strongest, most enthusiastic minority Republicans often have a military background. I think this is because the military is one institution where Republicans have struck that perfect balance between respect for individual liberty & support for the institutions.

    Obviously civilian life is & should be different. There?s a greater risk of compromising on our respect for individual liberty. Can?t lose by cracking down on crime, criminals deserve to lose their liberty. We can also focus on supporting urban small businesses. Again, no compromise if we focus on arbitration rather than handouts.

    Obama is still a bad president. But I have always thought we shouldn?t be so pessimistic about the GOP?s lack of minority support in 2008. Obama?s election was historic. We?ll never have another first minority president. That?s not trivial.

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