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TN primary results open thread.

By: Moe Lane (Diary)  |  August 5th, 2010 at 08:47 PM  | 

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Results here. First look: if primaries are any indication, TN-06 and TN-08 are flipping in November.

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  • tngal

    The Sec of State has posted early voting numbers for SOME of the counties. Although early voting has been over for about a week a week, maybe some counties didn’t want to cough up the numbers. Davidson, Jackson, Cheatham, Bledsoe and a few others are up .

    http://tnsos.org/elections/Results1/20100805Reports.php

  • pilgrim

    Only 6% of precincts reporting and politico has already called Haslam the winner.

  • lineholder

    Was this Wamp’s seat? This looks like it could be a tight race. Do you have any input about candidates in this race?

  • sacody

    Cook rates TN-6 as a likely Republican pickup, but you compare the two districts tonight, and you can’t help thinking that TN-8 is toast, as well, for the Democrats. Having a 2 to 1 advantage in turnout in a primary less than 90 days from the general is a great sign for the GOP. TN-4 looks like a strong turnout for Republicans to unseat Davis, also.

  • tngal

    has Smith and Fleishmann in first and second place. Very close with 30 percent of votes in 13,586 to 13,169. May have been Wamps. Not sure. I’m in dis 4.

  • http://hillbillypolitics.com Steph C

    with 57% of precincts in. The others aren’t even close.

  • redtillimdead

    Dems had a very uncontested primary, while the Republican primary was hotly contested. We also had a competitive Gov primary, and Dems had none. However, I think if Fincher holds his current lead, it is a sign of strength for him. He has been severly outspent by Ron Kirkland and his brother who spent close to 1 million for him, and George Flinn, who spent over 3 million of his own money. If he can overcome that, Roy Herron’s money will be nothing for him. I think our gospel singer can take on their rich boy.

  • tngal

    day old laundry wasn’t it? I could not believe they did that! And that bites because we are now the proud owner of a squish. Great, if the last gov built a bunker what’s this one going to build, a turret?

    Ramsey a little more ooommph from you would’ve helped.

  • http://hillbillypolitics.com Steph C

    I’m TN-05 and it looks like we’re stuck with Cooper again.

  • redtillimdead

    Hoping to see Lou Ann Zelenik win in TN-06. even if she doesn’t win, I hope Black, the current leader wins. Tracy is terrible. Also hope Fincher wins in TN-08. Smith is in a close race in TN-03. Hope she can pull it out. Too bad about the Gov race.

  • redtillimdead

    Have endorsed Smith, Huckabee has endorsed the other guy.

  • tngal

    This is dist. 4. And davis running unopposed. I’ve been following this doctor for months. No amnesty, repeal O care, you name it he’s crawling with conservativism.

  • http://hillbillypolitics.com Steph C

    That’s the guy who spammed my site and then tried to get me to do a campaign website for him.

  • The_Rebel

    I checked out Neil’s Swingometer for TN-8 and found that if the Republicans had a 100 point swing, only 8 seats would still be in Democrat hands. This was one of them.

    While I’m certainly not predicting anything of this magnitude, if TN-8 flips to the Republicans, I think we will be looking at a gain of far more than 60 seats. This seat has been held by a Republican for only 4 years during the last century.

  • pilgrim

    I know you were for the other guy, but since McWherter was uncontested for the Ds knowing early may be a good thing.

  • http://hillbillypolitics.com Steph C

    I’m looking at the turnout numbers so maybe Cooper is still on the ropes. Lot of Reps to split the vote right now in the primaries but by total turnout it’s pretty well even. There hasn’t been a Rep in THAT seat since 1875.

  • http://hillbillypolitics.com Steph C

    bigger Rep turnout so far. The majority of the votes are split between Hall, Hartline, and Heil.

  • redtillimdead

    TN-08 is a race where we have a great candidate, If it flips, it is still possible that we have only gained around 30 seats. This should be one seat that we gain, even if we have a much worse than expected night. Sure the Dems have a great candidate, but in this district, I think the contrast of farmer/gospel singer vs career politician/rich guy will work for us.

  • tngal

    63 percent of votes in. Little over 400 votes seperate Smith and Fleishmann. Smith leads.

  • rbdwiggins

    Link to Politico’s interactive map for all TN districts.

    Republicans appear to hold more than a 3/2 advantage in turnout according to the early returns.

    A pattern is developing and seems to be repeating itself.

  • The_Rebel

    According to the Swingometer, we only need a 35 point swing for TN-5 to flip, and we would gain a little over 100 seats in the process. :)

  • http://hillbillypolitics.com Steph C
  • The_Rebel

    but my gut tells me that we will gain far more than 30 seats if this happens.

  • pilgrim
  • tngal

    We don’t have time to play figuring out a winner. But this man had better not waste our money putting something goofy on the gov’s mansion

  • lineholder

    total number of D voters in TN-04 in last election? If so, can comparison to R turnout tonight be made? You know, comparison of enthusiasm then and now.

  • pilgrim
  • tngal

    I mean big time. I’m sure that’s where the info is . I will say its a blue(dog) district. TN is a checkerboard state. Some people are lucky enough to get representatives like Marsha Blackburn. Hoping DesJarlais can take Davis out.

    Then again, you saw how the state voted for Haslam. He was the softes one.

  • http://hillbillypolitics.com Steph C

    He’s over 800 votes ahead with 82% reporting in. Hartline isn’t far behind him but I don’t expect he’ll make up the difference. Heil is close in on Hartline but there’s the bigger gap between her and Hall.

  • http://hillbillypolitics.com Steph C

    Turnout period is abysmal. In Davidson County, there are 350k+ registered voters, 41K of which are inactive. Nowhere near the remainder turned out to vote.

  • tngal

    Fleishmann 25.128
    Smith24, 550

    the other 3 candidates are still trailing.

  • pilgrim
  • gekster

    Thanks for the numbers.

  • proudgop

    Impressive win by Fincher. I heard it was pretty bitter primary but Fincher needs the help to rebuild his coffins the Dem is sitting on 1.2 million COH

    Although it is interesting to see that 30% Democrat voters voted against Herron when the woman who ran against him doesn’t even have webiste according to politics1?

  • tngal

    19,000 reg voters roughly….and a little over 5k earned the right to complain. It will cost between $30,000- $35,000 to put on the election according to our local paper.

  • tngal

    Please tell me you meant coffers instead of coffins. Or does he work at a casket factory? My mom in law worked in a casket fac in Loretto and I would hate to think I knew two people in that profession.

  • http://hillbillypolitics.com Steph C

    Maybe there’s more there than we’ve seen. I guess time will tell.

  • redtillimdead

    He was heavily outspent by both of his opponents. Kirkland had his brother spend nearly 1 million for him, along with the over 700k he spent. Flinn spents over 3 million of his own money, and Fincher still looks likely to win with a majority. I’m liking our odds a lot better than a did 12 hrs ago. This big of a win is a sign of strength in November. Easily one of the NRCC’s best recruits of the cycle.

  • http://hillbillypolitics.com Steph C
  • http://hillbillypolitics.com Steph C

    Memphis is as blue as blue can be… dark blue, it’s so blue.

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

    partiers’ favorite (and EE’s and mine) in the run-off because of Deal’s slimey ads

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

    the GOP results in TN today?

  • proudgop

    I meant warchest in those terms

  • pilgrim

    From what I can see they may have to settle for the one they didn’t vote for. David Hall won TN-5 (steph’s district) The contests in TN-4 and TN-6 are still too close to call (tngal & Janis’s districts) I do not know where TNJim is.

  • Richard Mullins

    and Roe is unopposed in the Primary. If I were living in my ancestry county in TN, I’d be voting in TN-04. For now I live in a solid Republican district of TX-02.

  • tngal

    I think Erick was for Smith on that one wasn’t he? Oh well, we’re going to the table in November with the hand we were dealt. (nite all)

  • pilgrim

    Dr DesJarlais won the GOP primary in TN-4 with 27,560 votes of 98.6% precincts reporting.

  • janis

    It was getting pretty hard to deny that Bill Haslam was going to win even a week ago. The guy was on TV morning, noon, and night. Tonight after he conceded, Zach Wamp said that he was outspent by 3 or 4 to 1. Haslam got a LOT of supporters who should have rightfully been donating to a Dem. And that point doesn’t make me feel all warm and cozy.

    On the other hand, the Dems have only Mike McWhorter, with no executive experience whatsoever. Yes, he is the uncontested candidate, but that’s because those who might have run just gave up when they saw the dire state of the Dem Party nationwide and in Tennessee as well. It should have been a good year for them, since Phil Bredesen is a fairly popular governor and a Dem. But Bob Tukes, the former head of the Dem Party in TN and an ardent Obama supporter, was planning to run for governor and he just sunk out of sight. Haven’t seen or heard a peep from him in I don’t know how long. Obama’s “winning streak” is intact here– no one wants to even mention his name if they’re a Dem. The ones who are running are running as “conservatives”.

    As you said, other races are too close to call. I’m glad that Wamp didn’t win. He was convinced that it was his for the taking.

  • pilgrim

    They have not yet called a winner at Politico on the D side. What do you think?

  • proudgop

    just curious if turnout was record like its been in many states?

    compare it to dem too please?

  • janis

    This seat is going R after a Dem has held it since 1981. Bart Gordon managed to really screw the pooch bigtime by lying about his vote for ObamaCare. He even called a group of local doctors with lots of clout in Murfreesboro and surrounding areas into a private meeting and promised them he wouldn’t vote for it. And then he did. His actions have pretty much guaranteed that a Dem won’t be taking this seat again for some time.

    To my knowledge, all the ones on the D side are neophytes anyway. The D party recruited a couple of Iraq veterans because they cynically thought that they could use them to dodge the slings and arrows that Obama and Bart Gordon have rained down on the fortunes of their party at this point. It isn’t working very well.

  • http://www.redstate.com/tnjim TNJim

    TN-01 looks to have a good start on its 2nd 100 years of GOP representation in the House.

  • http://www.redstate.com/tnjim TNJim

    at least this one isn’t. I still can’t get past Haslam’s Pilot company being involved in price gouging after Katrina but, that’s the hand we’re dealt. He’s bound to be better than McWherter V. 2.0, we’ll just have to see if he’s going to put his money where his mouth is. Wamp was a non-starter for me to begin with, still a little surprised he came in ahead of Ramsey who’s far more conservative.

    Bottom line, Haslam won the nomination, and he has my support now. Not my choice, but his Dem opponent is even more a non-starter than Wamp was.

  • Whitehorse

    Very hard working guy with a hard working family – heck, everyone who could was running for something! Not sure if you’ve met him, but we (active Republicans in district 5) should be able to give Cooper a run for his money. This could be TN’s “Scott Brown” moment. I’d love to see Cooper have to defend his darn seat instead of depending on it being Andrew Jackson’s congressional district. Cooper can be beaten; we’ll need to maximize turnout for our side.

  • Whitehorse

    Albeit very small – Cohen handily beat Herenton, who was running a campaign solely based on his skin color. Cohen is a liberal – at least he’s honest about it, unlike Cooper & others…

  • Whitehorse

    Not thrilled with Haslam. He did blanket the state with ads, which focused on the economy, jobs, & spending. For Republicans who aren’t into the day to day like we are, these ads were effective.

    McWherter (the Democrat) is doing this to get his name out there & maybe run again in 8 years if Haslam’s not caught with a “dead girl or live boy.” He’s also separating himself from his father.

    Fincher has a good chance in TN-08; Black has an excellent shot in TN-06. Blackburn should have no problem in TN-07. Defeating Cooper in TN-05 will be an uphill battle, Hall is a hard worker & with enough support & GOTV he could win. TN-05 was Andrew Jackson’s congressional seat way back when – it would be wonderful to take it.

  • http://hillbillypolitics.com Steph C

    See up thread. I mentioned turnout.

  • http://hillbillypolitics.com Steph C

    When I was writing on candidates, he wasn’t all that receptive and figured he was another like MIranda, Spivak, et all who showed rather poorly last night, didn’t they?

  • Praying

    Living in Knoxville, it was interesting to watch this race. Many of my friends who I call the “unenlightened Republicans” were all out in support of Haslam. Bill Haslam is a nice guy – and that might be enough in ordinary times – but these are not ordinary times. I don’t think he “gets it” about the threat to personal freedom and state sovereignty we’re facing now. He joined the NRA last July as a “life member” after voting to oppose permit holders carrying in parks, and in bars. I don’t think he’s ever owned a gun! Ramsey was my guy from pretty early on – but his campaign in the Knoxville area was almost non-existent. It’s now up to us to hold Haslams feet to the fire and not let him do all those stupid squishy things I’m afraid he’s going to try to do.

  • http://www.cosmopolitanconservative.com Adrienne Royer

    I’m a long-time Wamp supporter, but he just ran a bad, bad campaign. Not only was he outspent, but never put your kids on the payroll! To often, their tweets and reactions were the story, not Wamp.

    One of my biggest qualms is how the ENTIRE Haslam family is buying their way into the interests of the state. You can’t ignore how they literally control every aspect of the University of Tennessee and Knoxville. Now, Daddy Haslam (Bill Haslam’s father) is incredibly close to getting his hooks into state government.

    We’ve had 8 pretty good years under Bredesen. Don’t forget that Daddy Haslam was Don Sundquists’ biggest income tax advocate. I don’t care what Haslam says, I don’t trust him when it comes to taxes. Particularly when he raised them in Knoxville.

    The same liberals who complained that the Bush family was growing too powerful seem rather excited that Haslam won the nomination.

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine
  • tngal

    Kind of like…see I’m one of the nice republicans. They knew their dem pick was not gong to make it so why not vote for our softest link. Haslam had lots of his own money and we’re seeing in a number of races that is where the votes are going.

    I am hoping now we get some money flowing to our winners from last night. In my district, Davis didn’t even have to campaign so he’s sitting on tons of cash while Desjarlais has got 30k left. Dist4 isn’t the only one. In a couple of districts we’ll be fighting entrenched dems with their heels dug in.

  • Mary Beth
  • Mary Beth
  • Richard Mullins

    and no I live in TX-02 and the only opposition Ted Poe is going to have is another libertarian. The Dems just don’t seem to want to run anyone against him.

  • http://www.redstate.com/tnjim TNJim

    Small world eh? Hi, neighbor! Of course I also call janis that, and Steph C and tngal. But you might literally be a neighbor.