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The DCCC’s Super-Genius November Strategy.

By: Moe Lane (Diary)  |  August 8th, 2010 at 05:36 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

In the process of trying to convince people that Tom Perriello might possibly have a chance at keeping his seat in Virginia’s Fifth District (given Perriello’s bad habit of voting as directed by his party’s liberal leadership) against Robert Hurt, the Washington Post tried to trot out this particular line of nonse… ah, conventional wisdom:

Though polls suggest that Republicans are by far the more energized party this year, the Democrats argue that — unlike the last time they lost the House, in 1994 — they aren’t being caught off-guard.

Not off-guard?  Let’s take a look at the chart below.

Total Lean/TU Most Vuln
Dem Rep Dem Rep Dem Rep
Jan-09 50 33 22 6 3 1
Feb-09 X X X X X X
Mar-09 51 33 23 6 3 1
Apr-09 58 43 24 7 3 1
May-09 59 42 25 6 4 0
Jun-09 58 44 24 8 3 2
Jul-09 60 44 22 12 4 4
Aug-09 63 38 26 13 7 4
Sep-09 72 35 28 13 7 4
Oct-09 78 28 33 13 13 5
Nov-09 83 27 39 12 15 4
Dec-09 84 26 38 11 18 4
Jan-10 87 26 49 10 24 3
Feb-10 95 18 53 6 27 3
Mar-10 95 18 58 6 31 3
Apr-10 99 17 62 5 33 3
May-10 98 18 62 6 33 4
Jun-10 100 18 64 7 34 4
Jul-10 102 18 66 7 36 4

The above represents the Cook Political Report race rankings since January 2009 for every month that he’s done one (in months where there was more than one, I took the last one of the month), ending with the 07/22/2010 report. ‘Total’ represtents every race that isn’t listed as Safe. ‘Lean/TU’ represents seats held by incumbents that are either Lean R/D or Toss-Up R/D. ‘Most Vuln’ are seats held by incumbents in the Toss-Up R/D categories, or incumbents actually listed as being likely pickups (ie, a Democrat in a Likely R seat).  To summarize the summary: since the start of the election season Democrats have doubled the number of seats that they need to be at least wary about; tripled the number of seats that they need to worry about; and… use whatever technical term stands for ‘nine times’ that they need to panic about.  Meanwhile, the Republicans have halved their ‘wary’ seats and stood pat on their ‘worry’ seats; I’ll concede that we quadrupled our ‘panic’ seats, but going from one to four (two open, two poached) seems a small price to pay for watching a third of the Democratic House caucus start sweating the 2010 elections.  And note that it isn’t even Labor Day yet.  Back at the equivalent point in 2008, we were looking at 33/68 D/R wary seats, 20/33 worry seats, and 8/23 panic seats (and we ended up losing a net 21 in November).

So I’m going to have to say that if this represents the Democrats being not caught off-guard, then one shudders to think what being caught off-guard would look like.  Also, at this rate the Democratic endgame is going to look something like this

But perhaps that last is just me being mean.

Moe Lane

Crossposted to Moe Lane.

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  • Finrod

    I think that’s the word for 9x. Personally I’d use ‘tripled and retripled’, but maybe that’s just me having played too much backgammon in my youth.

  • Scope

    in the 5th district in VA. I have posted more times than not, that I am not in love with Robert Hurt, Perriello’s R opponent. On the best day of your life, Hurt beats out Perriello. I do believe that the district is coming around to that reality.

    It’s really funny that Perriello had to bus SEIU people in for his townhall in Charlottesville. One was so young and dumb that he allowed a city reporter to interview him. He said that he was doing the busing in for the money. He was paid to come here. That was a classic in the district.

    If you look at Perriello’s townhall schedule, which many D’s are not doing, many of Perriello’s townhalls are at 7 AM. Yep, that’s right, at 7 AM. He is doing all he can to avoid the real voters that he has ostracized. His townhall schedule only includes reasonable times, in the heavily L leaning districts. I’m sure they will be attended by the same “bussed in” SEIU paid cheerleaders. His schedule is all over the local conservative radio show, which has a big problem with his schedule. Who the heck will go to a Townhall at 7 in the morning? But, it does give him cover, because he is one of a few that is still holding townhalls. Polling looks good for the R Hurt.

  • Mike

    MOE! HOW MANY FISH DIDJA CATCH?!?!?!

    Ahem. Now to the other stuff.

    7 AM is likely to only bring out people who REALLY want to be there — like people who REALLY want to barbecue him. Can’t say I’m a fan of his strategy, if avoiding craziness was his goal :D

    And based on the last poll I saw out of VA 5, we could run a mentally handicapped termite against Perriello and still pull out a squeaker.

  • teresakoch

    Most of the ones that I know are up at the crack of dawn, and if they are P.O.’ed enough, they’ll set their alarm clocks to make SURE that they get up in time to go to a TH meeting.

    And afterwards, they’ll all meet up at the Waffle House……

  • Tbone

    When the word ” Peterbilt” starts getting bigger really fast, you have a problem.

  • rdelbov

    as to where the passion is in 2010.

    There has been a record midterm Republican primary turnout in the following states: Maine-South Carolina-Georgia-Alabama-Tennessee-Kentucky-Indiana-Michigan-Missouri-Kansas-Arkansas-Texas-New Mexico-Utah and Nevada.

    Coming up next week -Colorado and maybe CT.

    I have not found a state yet where the Democrat party has set a primary record yet.

    This is a “send them a message election” and the GOP side has the passion.

  • Scope

    to avoid the raucus townhalls he had early on when he did the Obamacare townhalls. They were so terrible, for him, he decided to go with tele townhalls. He has bragged and bragged about his connection to the people of the district, he has to put himself out there. I doubt that the many many retirees of the 5th will come out in support of him. They instinctively know that he will put them in an early grave. He lies with the impunity of the Obama’s. He just can’t help it. When I think of his father, being a long time pediatrition in Cville, and Tommy running on that base, it makes me sick.

  • bk

    Certainly they can’t say it was because Clinton raised the gas tax a nickel, raised income taxes, ranked ‘don’t ask don’t tell’ above other national defense issues, etc.

  • Oz

    I’m concerned that we don’t have enough money in the bank for individual races.

    On the other hand, if we NATIONALIZE the race then that may be less of a factor.

    Here’s hoping that some of the outside groups really drop money heavily.

  • Scope

    moved to VA for lower taxes, and lower eveything. They seemed to not realize that demanding the same services they had in NY and NJ would drive up the costs of everything. That’s a fact. I know. I worked for a builder that lured them all here, for lower taxes, and, cheaper prices to build a house than it would cost farther up north. Most that I know, paid for the house, the land and everything that went along with it, and, still had money for retirement. Now, they are beeitching at the high costs.

  • rdelbov

    senate and Gov races we will be even or at ahead in money. Perhaps NV senate and WA senate are the only races we behind at this point by any signficant amount. According the FEC we might trail in IN-NH-AR. We got several key self funders (WI-CA senate-CA Gov) so the money is there.

    Most of the top 50 house races seem okay.

    I can see in the next tier house races we could be behind to well behind–plus outside money is a concern

  • johnCV

    I actually heard one women (obvious NY/NJ retiree) dissing our town because they did not have good NY deli food.

    I calmly suggested I 95 North for a better selection.

    /Sorry for the threadjack….

  • toadold

    The more the Democrats appear to be in trouble the harder it becomes for them to raise money and the more the “interest” money will flow to Republicans. Also there is more money out there for “conservative” Republicans that what appears on the media radar.
    This is going to make it very tricksy for Democrat money allocators.
    If you are going to take an unavoidable beating who do you try to save if you can’t save everybody? If you try to save those who have the best chance of being re-elected in 2010, what will be their chances in 2012? Do you try to save those who are reliable party line voters but whom the general public hates and you end up throwing your money away anyway? Are the savable ones going to follow the party line or even vote for Pelosi as speaker this time around?

  • arlenbrack

    I saw a bumper sticker the other day – ” I was wondering why the frisbee kept getting bigger , and then it hit me.” Replace the frisbee with a Peterbuilt, and you have Nov 2 2010.

  • bushhog

    generate little confidence in those who constitute the most energized — hence little money. My contributions, and I hope those of many other conservatives, are going to PACs and candidates that have demonstrated their conservative bona fides. The national party may not see fundraising success until the leadership changes (and I don’t mean just their publically-expressed philosophy).

  • http://www.suvstrategery.blogspot.com SoFiMil

    I’ve got my eye on you. The “Rebubs” phrase might have been your undoing. As you self-profess yourself a conservative, including your login name, what do you think of Bush’s conservative bona fides?

  • bushhog

    but also not an establishment Republican. I understand why the typo caught your eye and raised your suspicions. While I’m not interested in taking tests, my error entitles you to a brief response. I was generally a fan of the last president, but he angered me on numerous occasions (“comprehensive” immigration reform, Meirs, Medicare prescriptions, TARP, etc.). I’ll try to be more careful on the keyboard in the future.

    With respect to the base point, how comfortable are you with the leadership’s choice of candidates (e.g., MA and FL senate races)? I’m not contributing money to support democrat-lite!

  • Brian Hibbert

    You’re relatively new here so typos like that will raise suspicions. Keep posting, as we get to know you better you’ll gain some cred, then a typo will be seen as a typo.

  • Brian Hibbert

    I can understand the “I?m not contributing money to support democrat-lite!” But it does cost real money to get even a conservative elected. So which candidates are you helping? Are you volunteering to make calls and knock doors (if so, who)? Any specific candidate you’re pulling for?

  • Scope

    I95 north for a better selection. LOL Fact is, they do run back up north every chance they get. That is if they haven’t lured their entire families down here, where we are still living in the dark ages.

    John, does the CV mean Charlottesville? If so, I am about 25 miles from there.

  • dude

    King Obama soundly defeated, must have been Bush’s fault!

  • sacody

    cut its losses in the Toss-up category. Only a handful of those races are doable for the Democrats right now and shore up those in the Lean-D category. They are ones that are heading down the same path. Such a strategy would lose a significant number of seats (roughly 35) but is more likely to retain the house. Of course, they aren’t going to do that. And, hopefully they keep spending money on races like Perriello’s.

  • johnCV

    East or west? ( north or south?)

  • bushhog

    cost my employer its existence (a Fortune 500 real estate-related business) and, of course, eliminated my job. If nothing else, I’ll have time to volunteer in the fall election. Marco Rubio has some of my $, as does the Tea Party Patriot group and DeMint’s Senate Conservative Fund. Karen Handel is on my radar (I was a long-time Georgian, former Gingrich fan, current Price fan), as is Michael Williams in TX. I also have been a regular at our local Tea Party events and our Congressman’s town halls. I have lurked on RedState for years (like the Macon connection) without registering or posting. Now, with more time on my hands, I thought I’d participate occasionally. If I cause either others or myself much more trouble, I’ll go back to lurking.

    Can we now cease the personal investigation (instigated, I admit, by my own error) and return to issues?

  • Scope

    north- Montpelier. They had a Civil War Re-enactment here all weekend. It was very cool.

  • johnCV

    The home of Madison – I’m in Barboursville area (NOT the city).

    Are you a re-enactor? I Have a few friends who do that.

  • Brian Hibbert

    Like I said, I completely understand not wanting to give money to the NRSC given their track record, but was hinting that you should instead put that money directly in the hands of a candidate you like. They still need the cash whether it comes from the NRCC or NRSC or RNC or directly from you.

    I completely understand the issue with no available cash (I’m in a similar situation myself), but I’ve been out knocking doors for the local candidates, walking in parades and have given a few meager dollars. If all you can contribute is time, contact a local candidate and help them make calls or assemble a mailing or whatever needs done. They’ll appreciate that contribution more than the RSC would appreciate whatever you could send them. Are there any local candidates for the house that aren’t getting the attention they should?

    By the way, I like your choice in candidates and met most of them at last year’s RedState gathering.

    If you’ve been lurking a while I don’t really have to explain the bit of mistrust of a new account. I hope you’ll keep posting and join in the fun.

    Oh, one more thing for ColdWarrior’s benefit… if you aren’t already, become a PC! (Click the “take back our party” link in my signature).

  • qixlqatl
  • Scope

    No, I am not a re-enactor. I just enjoyed seeing it because it was very very literally in my backyard. So, that means you are in Cantor’s district, no?

  • Scope

    have you ever looked into getting involved in Orange county Republican politics? I have a feeling you know much the same as me with that effort.

  • Achance

    That was his standard reply to transplanted yankees bitching about the “backward” South. I’ve been known to say, “Alaska Airlines is ready when you are” to all the Californicators we have here.

    For those of you unfamiliar with the late and lamented Lewis Grizzard, he was a columnist for the Atlanta Urinal and Constipation for years and wrote all sorts of sometimes serious, sometimes humorous, often both, observations about life in Georgia and The South. He published several books that are roll on the floor funny if you are a Southerner, maybe a little hard to understand for yankees. Well worth the read and I’ll guarantee you’ll be laughing out loud.

  • http://www.suvstrategery.blogspot.com SoFiMil

    Thanks for understanding my suspicion. I’m a Dubya fan as well, with the caveats you cited.

  • http://www.suvstrategery.blogspot.com SoFiMil

    Although I originally supported Sam Brownback until he withdrew.

  • johnCV

    and I’m really looking forward to that….