The last (probably) pre-Labor Day Cook rankings.
If you don’t feel like clicking through the links, allow me to summarize: ten more House seats shifted in the GOP’s favor, and so did three Senate seats, and so did four Governor’s races. Only one of them (WY-GOV) is now off the actual board, but Cook is now projecting a net +6 to +8 GOP in the Governors’ races, a net +7 to +9 GOP in the Senate, and at least a net +35 GOP in the House. The House is particularly of interest, as there are currently forty-five Toss-Up races listed by Cook right now, and only three of them are Republican seats.
Couple this with the latest set of regional race polls from Republican-leaning American Action Forum, and the truly atrocious (for the other side) enthusiasm gap that Democrat-leaning Public Policy Polling is finding, and Larry Sabato’s needed-to-slam-a-shot of whiskey-first prediction of a lost House and Senate on the edge, and you get… a lot of people blankly staring at their scratch papers or computer screens and thinking This can’t be right. I must have subtracted where I should have added, or something. Or maybe I made an assumption that I shouldn’t have. Things can’t be this bad for the Democratic party.
Seriously. This is turning out to be one of the most unnerving election cycles in recent memory: sort of like a combination of 2006 and 2008. On steroids. Laced with crystal meth. Either that, or everybody’s model is completely wrong. Which is why people keep writing some variant of “Well, it’s still X days before the election; a lot can change” whenever this topic comes up. It’s not so much a desire to cover one’s rear as it is a tacit admission that what may be coming in November is an extremely low-probability scenario. Even possibly the often-promised, never-seen, fabled realig…
Well, it’s still sixty one days before the election. A lot can change.
Crossposted to Moe Lane.