Yes, everything that has happened up to this point has been the overture, prologue, or whatever other metaphor is most suitable for the reader. This is the time when the rest of the people who will be voting in the midterms will start looking around and paying attention to everything that's going around them. Which is, of course, their privilege; besides, there's probably less of them this time around. And they're going to see the following:
- The economy is a shambles (look it up, sometime: it's a hideously appropriate term for the situation). 9.6% unemployment, and I can say without fear of contradiction that the only way that it will dip down to 6% or better next month is if the Rapture's on Wednesday.
- The Democrats are getting hammered in their races. We're fighting in Connecticut, California, Illinois, and Delaware: they're fighting... largely in their own territory. It tells you a lot that their best Senate pickup is relying on a rapidly-fading third party candidate, and that I can count on one hand how many Republican House races are in play. The Democrats are getting hammered in the polls. The generic ones say it all, really - but add Stu Rothenberg to the list of people who think that the House is going to flip.
- That GOTV thing that the Democrats keep saying will save them? Not so much.
- That President will save candidates in danger thing? Not so much.
It's not over, but the narrative of the 2010 race is going to be established by the end of next week, and by all accounts the Other Side is going to enjoy the consequences about as much as we did when it happened to us in 2006 and 2008. I also seem to recall a certain lack of sympathy being passed my way on those occasions.
PS: "But, Moe! Tell Republicans this and they'll stay home and the Democrats will win anyway!" Sure they will. Players always quit a game in progress when they're ahead and the other team can't catch a break. Street fights always stop the moment when the other guy's first laid out on the ground. And political movements hungry for wins always treat the news that they're ahead with lessened enthusiasm.
Happens all the time, really.
PPS: So no, I'm not going to tell you to not get cocky. It ain't bragging if you can do it.
Crossposted to Moe Lane.