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Well, NH-SEN turned out to be pretty exciting.

By: Moe Lane (Diary)  |  September 15th, 2010 at 08:00 AM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

With 85% of the vote in Kelly Ayotte is about 900 votes ahead of Ovide Lamontagne, after an evening where she was behind in the vote.  Which is easily close enough for a recount, no matter who wins – and, honestly, this is one time where it really is still up in the air.  My personal inclination would be to counsel whoever ends up in second to not push a recount*; it’s six weeks before the election and Paul Hodes (D CAND, NH-SEN) is desperate to delay the time before people start getting reminded that he supported cap-and-trade and Obamacare.

Amusingly, this race was considered ‘contentious’ before the GOP DE-SEN primary abruptly redefined that adjective.  I would hope that both campaigns take this as being, as they say, a moment of clarity…

Moe Lane

*Hey, both candidates were hardly shy about tapping into national conservative energy, time, and money; they can also handle getting a little national conservative advice.

Crossposted to Moe Lane.

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COMMENTS

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  • rdelbov

    44 precincts out-each of them in an individual town scattered all over the state. The surrounding cities to these uncounted towns went for Ayotte.

    I think she adds to her margin as these towns are counted.

    That’s just my prediction. Ovide’s strength was in Manchester and those towns/cities that were nearby. Those votes are all counted.

  • NHConservative0227

    If the big establishment RINO wins, Obama doesn’t have the chance to nominate another Supreme Court Justice.

  • bk

    Why do states have these late primaries? Why not do them in May like most of the so-called backward southern states do? It’s because of these late primaries that states are trying to screw troops out of voting.

  • mboyle1988

    Let’s be real. She is establishment, but she got half the tea party vote last night. She’d be the most conservative Northeastern Republican senator ever, most likely.

  • NHConservative0227

    http://www.redstate.com/erick/2010/09/06/ovide-lamontagne-rising-in-new-hampshire/

    And tell me she’s a real conservative.

    Supporting Sotomayor should automatically disqualify her. Almost even more disturbing is her reasoning for not supporting Kagan. It had nothing to do with Kagan’s desire to trash the Constitution, but only because Kagan didn’t have enough experience!

  • rdelbov

    as Toomey is now establishment in PA as is Coburn in OK plus Buck/Miller in their states.

  • NHConservative0227

    In terms of most conservative NE Republican, John Sununu says hi.

  • Marcus_Traianus

    Finally, I voted for someone that won. It’s been awhile.

  • SirGladiator

    As someone who was following the DE Senate race mighty closely, the idea that Ayotte is anywhere remotely near similar to somebody like Castle is just extremely far from accurate. Ayotte is a Conservative Republican, not as Conservative as Ovide, and I’m sure there are any number of ways she could be criticized as less of a Conservative than Lamontagne, of course, but she’s totally acceptable as a nominee if she wins. I’ll be happy with either of these two in the US Senate, and I think everybody here should be.

  • NHConservative0227

    Especially in NY state of all places!

  • NHConservative0227

    who should’ve been running as a Dem, but Ayotte is a RINO.

    Check out this list:

    http://www.redstate.com/erick/2010/09/06/ovide-lamontagne-rising-in-new-hampshire/

    I’m not happy with her at all. The goal is to take the GOP back to its conservative principles, not have this big tent all inclusive garbage that has gotten it into so much trouble in the first place.

  • NHConservative0227

    Apparently talking about NH Senate Primary was not worth Sean’s precious time yesterday.

    I called in to talk about Ayotte vs. Ovide, but his screener said he didn’t want to talk about that. She said he’d cover it in his monologue. The only thing he said in his monologue about it was “there’s a primary in NH today”.

    Thanks Sean!

    It was a good thing that Hannity was going after Castle, but I thought the goal was to encourage as many people as possible to get involved. Especially in the primaries to elect real conservatives. Apparently it’s much more important for Hannity to spend 24/7 talking about the mosque instead of a very important race in NH!

    At least Laura Ingraham has her priorities straight!

  • smitch61

    Please, I am begging you… Please give this wonderful man some national exposure…. He is running against Dingell, is conservative, a cardiologist, and wants full repeal of Obamacare….

    http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0910/42191.html

  • america1st

    I would qualify that to say Sen. Sununu is standing beside Bob Smith on the silver medalist step below Gordon Humphrey.

    Nevertheless – all three of them genuinely conservative patriots of good character who served NH and the nation with distinction unburdened by the self-important delusion their bathrooms were perfume factories. Miss them all !!

  • NHConservative0227

    In terms of voting for real conservatives versus moderate/RINO’s you settle for because you think they can beat the Dems.

    http://www.glennbeck.com/content/articles/article/198/45436/

  • http://thecorruptworld.blogspot.com/ wayneinnh

    No matter who wins the nomination, they are infinitely better than Paul Hodes.

  • NHConservative0227

    Don’t worry, if the big establishment pulls it off I’ll hold my nose and vote for her against the Socialist Hodes.

    Just like I did for McCain.

    It was still no reason though to settle for a RINO in the primary. It’s a shame that Redstate was unable to gather up enough support for a true conservative in Ovide. I thought that was what Redstate was supposed to be all about.

  • rdelbov

    supported Sotomayor

    tired arguement

    Can’t have Alito & Roberts without Sotomayor

    The concept that only justices that you agree with on issues can be confirmed would mean no surpreme court at all.

  • http://moelane.com/ Moe Lane

    And do all the other things that one should justifiably expect of Ayotte supporters should your candidate win after all.

    Moe Lane

    PS: If I see you use the word “RiNO” before you explicitly agree to do the above I will turn off your account. Site moderator talking, and I don’t care if you like it or not.

  • Massachusetts_Transplant

    87% of the precincts in and she leads by 1664 (39% to 37%). All the big cities – Manchester, Nashua, Concord, Londonderry, Rocherster, Salem are in, so there is probably less than 10% of the vote oustanding, so unless there is some huge pocket of support for Lamontagne where he captures some 45% of the remaining vote to Ayotte’s 35%, then she likely has it.

    And can we quit with the “RINO” slurs here? I barely post, but have become increasingly frustrated with all the comments labeling every candidate who isn’t the most far to the right a “RINO”. Many of you now praising Chris Christie were leading the bashing of him as a RINO and pulling for the unelectable Steve Lonagan. Many of you bashed Bob Corker as a RINO, yet he held that seat in Tennessee for us, and is a pretty thoughtful Senator – the type of person that you can put on This Week or Meet The Press and be confident that he can actually articulate good positions. Judd Gregg (not perfect) has made budget reform a priority for years, and he is bashed as a “RINO”.

    If the goal is to destroy the “establishment” (Romney, Daniels) – which seems to be many posters goal – then lets go all in on that and nominate Alan Keyes or Christine O’Donnell for President in 2012 and see how we do.

  • cordpt

    Fully agreed.

  • cwilson

    Search the RS archives for Ayotte and you’ll find a bunch of articles — from before Ovide entered the race — about how great Kelly was, what a stand-up person for getting the SCOTUS decision upholding parental notification laws, etc etc.

    Now she’s the devil?

    Did I miss MinTruth’s memo?

  • rdelbov

    Susan B Anthony list all endorse Ayotte

    If that is not conservative approved -what is?

    People find one issue or even two and say “there is only thing that matters and there is no other view on this subject that matters but my own”

    I say look at our constitutional convention–conservatives have disagreeded on points since 1787 and before. This its my way or the highway stuff is downright “unconstitutional” if you get my drift.

  • Jack_Savage

    “If the goal is to destroy the ?establishment? (Romney, Daniels) – which seems to be many posters goal – then lets go all in on that and nominate Alan Keyes or Christine O?Donnell for President in 2012 and see how we do.”

    For every strawman and slur that RINO bashers put up, the apologists put up two.

  • chihank

    It’s said that the Dover area is the remaining population cnter uncounted.

    Who does Dover favor, Ayotte or Ovide?

  • cordpt

    Then again who is? She had some stances I don’t agree with, but that doesn’t make her a RiNO.

    It’s not like Ovide Lamontagne (one of the oldest political insiders in NH, with statewide campaign under his belt, who suddenly appeared as an “anti-establishment” candidate) is perfect: for example, he endorsed uber-RiNOs in other races, he ran on raising taxes when running for governor.

    None of these guys are perfect, both of them are good conservative candidates who will represent NH well and respect the general principles of limited government.

    The problem, as MassTrans hinted, is that RINO is now used as nothing more as a slur to be thrown at the opponents of whoever is the candidate of your liking. I bet that if Coburn is running on a primary right now, he’d be accused of being a RiNO by some guys. It’s come to this.

    It’s a shame because it basically makes RINO a meaningless acronym.

  • Massachusetts_Transplant

    not sure I get what you are talking about? Obviously I am being facetious. But, are you going to argue that there aren’t a lot of posts here bashing good solid conservative Republicans as “RINOs” and for some posters beating the “establishment” hasn’t risen to the highest importance? Look back a year to Lonegan/Christie.

    As someone who grew up in NH and watched Lamontagne help launch the career of now straightline liberal voting Senator Jeanne Shaheen by getting killed in his 1996 gubernatorial race, and then also watched as Craig Benson alienated every person in the state and fail to get reelected in 2004 – thus leading to the GOP wipeout in 2006 as Governor Lynch destroyed a bad GOP opponent with 70% of the vote, I know that having good, conservative, electable candidates is very important – not just for getting policies enacted, but also for connecting with the voters and building trust in the brand.

    Maybe Bill Sali was the most conservative Republican on paper in Idaho back in 2006, but he was SO bad that he actually lost an unloseable seat seat and now we have Walt Minnick out there – who could be there for many years if he isn’t defeated this year.

    (This is more about Delaware) Being conservative matters, but honor and integrity, being able to articulate a conservative message (like a Marco Rubio), and yes electability matter a lot to me too – something we learned in 2006/2008 after watching Don Sherwood, Bob Ney, Mark Foley, Rick Renzi,Tom Delay, Jerry Costello, Rick Pombo etc. fumble away GOP districts – and John Doolittles and Duke Cunninghams almost fumble away safe districts. When you have bad and/or corrupt candidates everyone suffers.

  • Massachusetts_Transplant

    based on the vote in the other Seacoast towns (Portsmouth, Hampton, Exeter, Somerworth, Rochester) – I think Ayotte will do fine there. Derry is probably Lamontagne’s best bet for making up some solid ground.

  • Jack_Savage

    And you are exactly right on each of those races – personalities and campaign styles matter. The way I look at the process is that it is like a writer perfecting a story. There will be mistakes, and re-writes and edits, but it all points toward one goal, and that is to elect articulate, strong conservatives to the House and Senate. Both the establishment Republicans and grassroots activists will learn from this process, and hopefully use it to their advantage in the future.

    My point was that without the gratuitous strawman, your post would have been a good one.

  • melissatx

    Bwahahahaha!

  • melissatx

    Bwahahahaha!

  • BrendanW

    We (wife and I) were supporting her until Ovide started getting some press – like him better so he got my vote, my wife stayed with Ayotte. But I cannot understand the hand ringing over Ovide versus Ayotte – the difference between the two as senators is probably marginal at best based on politics. Any big difference will be due to character and personal leadership – neither is well established at this point.

    I get the feeling that some people are primarily anti-Ayotte, because her victory would be seen as a ding against the tea party. But with Palin’s endorsement Ayotte has the other grass roots nod in the race… I see it more as Palin v Tea Party than establishment v. Tea Party.

  • chihank

    AP calls the Senate race for Ayotte.

    With 90% of the vote in, Ayotte leads 38% to 37%.

    Ayotte 48,590 votes

    Ovide 47,406 votes

  • NHConservative0227

    What are you saying again Moe Lane?

    So you’re threatening me to support Ayotte before calling her that dirty word again?

    I said right in my last post that I’d hold my nose and vote for her.

    So do you not agree that she is too moderate or do you not like my criticism of Redstate?

    I think both are justified. Many bloggers and posters on her were saying from the start that it was a two person race between Ayotte and Binnie. My argument was to support the real conservative and not compromise our principles. I was laughed at and called a Binnie supporter. Turns out that I was right as Ovide almost pulled it out. The take home lesson is to support the best candidate period.

    Either way, I don’t see how I’ve been disrespectful or inaccurate of my criticism. How does any of it justify threatening to turn off my account? Or are people not allowed to rightfully criticize Redstate?

  • NHConservative0227

    http://www.redstate.com/erick/2010/09/06/ovide-lamontagne-rising-in-new-hampshire/

    Plus Ovide was the only candidate to have Ovide’s Oath, a 15 point pledge of the conservative promises he would keep. Among them to repeal ObamaCare, the Stimulus, and enact term limits.

    Isn’t that one of the main things we want from our candidates now? That’s exactly what happened with the Contract With America.

    Ovide actually has walked the walk too (as stated in my link above) As State Board of Education Director, he actually refused stimulus money because he knew there were strings attached.

    I think Ayotte is going to be bad for NH, possibly worse than Gregg. I just hope she doesn’t have the chance to confirm anymore of Obama’s judges.

  • NHConservative0227

    The point is to confirm judges that respect and honor the Constitution. Not racist radicals that trash it.

    That’s one of the main responsibilities of being in the Senate. Otherwise why even have an advise and consent clause in the Constitution? Why not just rubber stamp whoever the President nominates?

  • Bill S

    No.

  • Bill S

    Ayotte won. It’s over. Stop with your snit and get into the boat and row with the rest of us.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    Republican voters in New Hampshire said it best. And what they said was “Kelly is our nominee for US Senate.”

    Get over it or get out.

  • http://moelane.com/ Moe Lane

    …to describe your political opponents until such time as you started acting like a proper Republican whose favored candidate has lost a primary. Which you have not yet done, by my standards, so you are still forbidden the word.

    Fairly straightforward, I would think.

  • NHConservative0227

    how many times do I have to keep saying it?

    I’m not going to pull a Mike Castle or Charlie Crist and help the socialist Hodes win. What else do you expect out of me? Am I required to be giddy and upbeat about supporting her? If the race is even somewhat close I will make phone calls/ write letters just like I did for Ovide and Ashooh.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    expect you to STFU with your whining after the fact. The “fact” being that NH voters made a choice and it is Ayotte. Beyond that, find positive things to say about her or just go away. You’re beyond tiring.

  • NHConservative0227

    When McCain got the nomination?

    Pretty arrogant of you to expect me to be happy about supporting her. I said I would, don’t know how many times I have to keep repeating that.

    I campaigned pretty hard for Ovide. Give me alittle time before you expect me to put the palm palm’s on for Ayotte.

  • http://moelane.com/ Moe Lane

    Much obliged.

  • NHConservative0227

    Didn’t realize I was outside a free speech zone.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    If you can’t do giddy and upbeat, you can always… talk about other races.

    It’s not that hard.

  • Jack_Savage

    But I doubt that Ayotte actively jabbed her fellow Republicans in the eye like McCain.

    Having said that, I had a bit of post-primary irritation this year myself. I was a Frank Roche supporter in the NC-04 GOP primary, but he got hammered by B.J. Lawson, who I believed to be a bit too Ron-Paulish for me. However you will now find a Lawson bumper sticker on my car and I am planning on giving Republicans at the old folks home cigs and salty food for their votes this November.

    It will take time, but in time you will be OK. I am kinda glad no one talked to me the day after that primary.

  • eburke

    It took me about 3 months before I could choke out the words “I hope Mark Kirk wins” in Illinois. So I spent my time on other races. And I was fully prepared to choke back the bile in my throat and support Castle if he won.

    If you can’t do that right now….find a race that jazzes you and talk about that. It’s pretty simple actually.

  • Bill S

    This site supported John McCain without reservation once he was elected to the nomination. Did we like it? Not really. But we didn’t piss and moan about it – we supported him.

    No one expects you to be happy. We just expect you to be supportive. We weren’t happy about McCain either, but we understood the ramifications of what would happen if he lost. And unfortunately, it came to pass.

  • Brian Simpson

    Are you going to start off on one of those insane ramblings about how RedState (a non-governmental entity) is infringing on your First Amendment rights? ‘Cause if you are, I’m going to pop some pop-corn.

  • eburke

    It’s a private site, dude. You want unlimited free speech, start your own site.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    here are Redstate you are in what is known as a “private property zone”.

    You, like me, are what is known as a “guest”.

    The site owners allow us to post here at THEIR sole discretion.

    The site owners have the right, and have exercised that right, to make rules that apply at their sole discretion to site posters.

    You, or I, can be blocked from posting on this site by the owners or their representatives – Moderators, including but not limited to Moe and Neil – at any time and for any reason.

    If you don’t like it go start your own blog.