Rasmussen shows a fairly unexpected primary bounce in NH for GOP gubernatorial candidate John Stephen: the race has gone from 50/39 Lynch/Stephen to 48/46 Lynch/Stephen. Polling for this race has been somewhat sparse, but it should be noted that there has been notable movement towards in both the Rasmussen and PPP polls. With the NH-SEN and NH-02 (no good recent polling on NH-01) races showing a definite break towards the GOP, Lynch may have to start worrying.
And so should national Democrats: it will not fit their narrative if the New Hampshire GOP runs the table next Election Night, and if this poll bears up, that’s now a genuine threat. In other words, rumors of the extinction of the New England Republican may have ended up being a bit premature…
Moe Lane
Crossposted to Moe Lane.
Moe Lane
Dan Spencer
Dan McLaughlin
Jeff Emanuel
Was wondering if we would start to see this,
ericc Sunday, September 19th at 1:32PM EDT (link)big break towards GOP as we get closer to Nov. Not just in NH, but all over the place. Rubio is out to a huge lead now, as are Portman & Kasich in OH, and others. The more of this, the better.
Washington Nevada California Wisconsin
mboyle1988 (Diary) Sunday, September 19th at 1:39PM EDT (link)Those are the four states that need to break for us. Washington is going the wrong way now.
I’m also looking at Connecticut and WV. How far can that money go?
It’s not just a break we need. We need the right break. We need to convince West Virginians that all Democrats are as weird and scary as Barack Obama. We need to break southerners of this idea that local Democrats aren’t like national democrats. They’re all the same. If we can destroy the democrats in the South once and for all, we’re close to taking back our country.
Good points
ericc Sunday, September 19th at 2:26PM EDT (link)I think it will come in other places as well, but time will tell – the WA trends are not what we would like to see. Rasmussen now has Johnson up 7 points in WI.
We are doing our best
neomom Sunday, September 19th at 7:21PM EDT (link)Here in NC-07 – the congressional seat has been held by a Dem since 1871 even though it has broke for GWB and even McCain…
This year we have an awesome R candidate in Ilario Pantano that is giving the 7-term incumbent a major run for his money.
WI seems like it has
redtillimdead (Diary) Sunday, September 19th at 9:39PM EDT (link)Walker and Johnson have opened up big leads- 8 and 7, respectively. In NV, Angle has led her first polls in weeks, and Sandoval is winning by over 20 pts, and the bigger his win, the better Angle’s chances. Washington has gone towards Murray lately, but thats mainly because she has gone very negative on Rossi, and Rossi has started fighting back now. CA appears to be swinging for Whitman, while fiorina is locked in a dead heat with Boxer. As with NV, the bigger Whitman lead the better for Fiorina. CT has closed to 6 points, before McMahon really starts hitting Blumenthal on the big stuff-Vietnam. Manchin is scrambling in WV, launching two negative ads, one that has gotten him some negative press because it is nothing but lies. He could face some blowback for that, especially since WV is a small state that likes positive campaigns.
Nancy Pelosi can kiss my asstroturf.
On The GOV Side, The Most Encouraging Races Lately Have Been MN & MA
IJB Sunday, September 19th at 10:29PM EDT (link)In both MN & MA, the GOP challenger has closed the gap. In both states, I think if the Indie candidate collapses below 10% support, the GOP candidates will have excellent shots at winning.
So those are two “Lean Dem” GOV races that may end up going our way.
And CT GOV has closed some lately, as well.
My prediction for
rdelbov Sunday, September 19th at 5:00PM EDT (link)2010 stands. There will be a dozen or so races for Gov or senator that will be settled by 3 or 4 % on election night perhaps 6 or so by 1 or 2%. Three months ago I was thinking OH-PA-NH but now it maybe NH Gov and not the senate race. Maybe WA-CA will be the razor tight races instead of MI Gov or FL senate
There are three points to consider on this NH poll and several others like WA that was referenced.
1. How do the indies break? Lynch trails a bit among indies in this poll. That’s fairly rare for a democrat in 2010. I note that even Rossi has a lead among indies in WA in several polls. I think that based on many generic polls the results on election day will see nearly every democrat behind with indies.
2. Do the polls show a GOP surge-more republicans turning out % wise then in 2008 or 2006? This poll apparently shows that as Ayotte is +7 on the senate side while Lynch is within MOE on the Gov side.
3. How do each candidate fare within their own party. In 90% plus of the polls this year the GOP candidate does better within their party then the democrat does. I don’t have the details on this poll but I suspect Lynch is doing a little better with the democrats then Stephen is with republicans.
Overall this poll is huge for the GOP
It's Worth Noting That NH Has Never Elected a GOV To a 4th Term
IJB Sunday, September 19th at 5:48PM EDT (link)…Or, at least, hasn’t done so in a very long time.
The fact that Lynch is running for that 4th term doesn’t bode well for his chances…
need another poll
proudgop (Diary) Sunday, September 19th at 8:46PM EDT (link)PPP just had poll that had Lynch well ahead. Need another poll to confirm the tightening.
Ras poll still has Lynch at 55% approval and 38% disapproval while Stephen is at 47% while 38% disapproval. We can win the race I still suspect Lynch is a bit ahead
The RGA needs to spend money here though. Same in OR, NM, FL, and GA just to lock up.
I Think The RGA Has Already Been Spending Money in NH
IJB Sunday, September 19th at 9:10PM EDT (link)…If I’m not mistaken.
But doing more would be advised.
Gov Races
proudgop (Diary) Sunday, September 19th at 9:41PM EDT (link)Seeing the thread is about Gov Races
RI and Hawaii look tough for us to hold ( especially RI). CT still tough too
VT, MN, and CA ( RGA doesn’t have to worry here about spending money) still highly competitive
FL, MA, MD, NM, and OR are tossup for us ( Florida worries me while NM seems to be moving our way and to degree OR too)
TX and GA look like holds but ( still not 100% locks)
ME, PA, OH, WI, IL all look very good for us ( RGA may need to spend money in WI, IL just do to late primary and not same amount of money)
IA and MI look even more solid
for rest of south states they seem like locks just like OK, TN, WY, NV, AZ do
too bad about CO
My advice to RGA spend in GA, TX, FL, OR, NM, MN, IL, WI, OH,VT and NH
I'm Not Sure The RGA Should Spend in VT
IJB Sunday, September 19th at 10:33PM EDT (link)They should only do so if they have surplus cash.
But, let’s face it – redistricting is a non-factor in VT.
So the RGA would be better advised to marshal its resources to races we might be able to pull out – namely, MN, MA and CT, and possibly NH & HI, depending on polling there. Those states all have redistricting issues where we can help ourselves if we win the GOV’s mansion…
People Need To Realize
NHConservative0227 (Diary) Monday, September 20th at 2:15AM EDT (link)That the state govt spending here in NH has grown out of control and we’ve been hit by more that 80 new taxes and fees.
NH also has one of the highest corporate tax rates in the country. The NH Advantage has now become a clear disadvantage.
We will soon get a sales tax and state income tax if we re-elect Lynch and his fellow socialists again!