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NH-GOV: Stephen (R) now within MoE.

Arrrrrrr.

By: Moe Lane (Diary)  |  September 19th, 2010 at 12:49 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Rasmussen shows a fairly unexpected primary bounce in NH for GOP gubernatorial candidate John Stephen: the race has gone from 50/39 Lynch/Stephen to 48/46 Lynch/Stephen.  Polling for this race has been somewhat sparse, but it should be noted that there has been notable movement towards in both the Rasmussen and PPP polls.  With the NH-SEN and NH-02 (no good recent polling on NH-01) races showing a definite break towards the GOP, Lynch may have to start worrying.

And so should national Democrats: it will not fit their narrative if the New Hampshire GOP runs the table next Election Night, and if this poll bears up, that’s now a genuine threat.  In other words, rumors of the extinction of the New England Republican may have ended up being a bit premature…

Moe Lane

Crossposted to Moe Lane.

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COMMENTS

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  • ericc

    big break towards GOP as we get closer to Nov. Not just in NH, but all over the place. Rubio is out to a huge lead now, as are Portman & Kasich in OH, and others. The more of this, the better.

  • mboyle1988

    Those are the four states that need to break for us. Washington is going the wrong way now.

    I’m also looking at Connecticut and WV. How far can that money go?

    It’s not just a break we need. We need the right break. We need to convince West Virginians that all Democrats are as weird and scary as Barack Obama. We need to break southerners of this idea that local Democrats aren’t like national democrats. They’re all the same. If we can destroy the democrats in the South once and for all, we’re close to taking back our country.

  • ericc

    I think it will come in other places as well, but time will tell – the WA trends are not what we would like to see. Rasmussen now has Johnson up 7 points in WI.

  • rdelbov

    2010 stands. There will be a dozen or so races for Gov or senator that will be settled by 3 or 4 % on election night perhaps 6 or so by 1 or 2%. Three months ago I was thinking OH-PA-NH but now it maybe NH Gov and not the senate race. Maybe WA-CA will be the razor tight races instead of MI Gov or FL senate

    There are three points to consider on this NH poll and several others like WA that was referenced.

    1. How do the indies break? Lynch trails a bit among indies in this poll. That’s fairly rare for a democrat in 2010. I note that even Rossi has a lead among indies in WA in several polls. I think that based on many generic polls the results on election day will see nearly every democrat behind with indies.

    2. Do the polls show a GOP surge-more republicans turning out % wise then in 2008 or 2006? This poll apparently shows that as Ayotte is +7 on the senate side while Lynch is within MOE on the Gov side.

    3. How do each candidate fare within their own party. In 90% plus of the polls this year the GOP candidate does better within their party then the democrat does. I don’t have the details on this poll but I suspect Lynch is doing a little better with the democrats then Stephen is with republicans.

    Overall this poll is huge for the GOP

  • IJB

    …Or, at least, hasn’t done so in a very long time.

    The fact that Lynch is running for that 4th term doesn’t bode well for his chances…

  • neomom

    Here in NC-07 – the congressional seat has been held by a Dem since 1871 even though it has broke for GWB and even McCain…

    This year we have an awesome R candidate in Ilario Pantano that is giving the 7-term incumbent a major run for his money.

  • proudgop

    PPP just had poll that had Lynch well ahead. Need another poll to confirm the tightening.

    Ras poll still has Lynch at 55% approval and 38% disapproval while Stephen is at 47% while 38% disapproval. We can win the race I still suspect Lynch is a bit ahead

    The RGA needs to spend money here though. Same in OR, NM, FL, and GA just to lock up.

  • IJB

    …If I’m not mistaken.

    But doing more would be advised.

  • redtillimdead

    Walker and Johnson have opened up big leads- 8 and 7, respectively. In NV, Angle has led her first polls in weeks, and Sandoval is winning by over 20 pts, and the bigger his win, the better Angle’s chances. Washington has gone towards Murray lately, but thats mainly because she has gone very negative on Rossi, and Rossi has started fighting back now. CA appears to be swinging for Whitman, while fiorina is locked in a dead heat with Boxer. As with NV, the bigger Whitman lead the better for Fiorina. CT has closed to 6 points, before McMahon really starts hitting Blumenthal on the big stuff-Vietnam. Manchin is scrambling in WV, launching two negative ads, one that has gotten him some negative press because it is nothing but lies. He could face some blowback for that, especially since WV is a small state that likes positive campaigns.

  • proudgop

    Seeing the thread is about Gov Races

    RI and Hawaii look tough for us to hold ( especially RI). CT still tough too
    VT, MN, and CA ( RGA doesn’t have to worry here about spending money) still highly competitive
    FL, MA, MD, NM, and OR are tossup for us ( Florida worries me while NM seems to be moving our way and to degree OR too)
    TX and GA look like holds but ( still not 100% locks)

    ME, PA, OH, WI, IL all look very good for us ( RGA may need to spend money in WI, IL just do to late primary and not same amount of money)
    IA and MI look even more solid

    for rest of south states they seem like locks just like OK, TN, WY, NV, AZ do

    too bad about CO

    My advice to RGA spend in GA, TX, FL, OR, NM, MN, IL, WI, OH,VT and NH

  • IJB

    In both MN & MA, the GOP challenger has closed the gap. In both states, I think if the Indie candidate collapses below 10% support, the GOP candidates will have excellent shots at winning.

    So those are two “Lean Dem” GOV races that may end up going our way.

    And CT GOV has closed some lately, as well.

  • IJB

    They should only do so if they have surplus cash.

    But, let’s face it – redistricting is a non-factor in VT.

    So the RGA would be better advised to marshal its resources to races we might be able to pull out – namely, MN, MA and CT, and possibly NH & HI, depending on polling there. Those states all have redistricting issues where we can help ourselves if we win the GOV’s mansion…

  • NHConservative0227

    That the state govt spending here in NH has grown out of control and we’ve been hit by more that 80 new taxes and fees.

    NH also has one of the highest corporate tax rates in the country. The NH Advantage has now become a clear disadvantage.

    We will soon get a sales tax and state income tax if we re-elect Lynch and his fellow socialists again!