Update from Erick: Learn something new every day. Thanks to all the readers who have pointed out that this race is inside the margin of error. I always assumed that in a 4.5% margin of error, the race could go 2.25% either way for each candidate. But lots of readers are pointing out that a 4.5% margin of error goes to each candidate so each one can go up or down 4.5%, meaning McMahon could be up 4.5% and Blumenthal down 4.5%, thus putting this race squarely within the margin of error.
And McMahon aims to do all it takes to win. Works for me.
Not quite inside MoE [UPDATE: to clarify, she’s down by 5 and the MoE is 4.5.], but we’ve got a month to go. Rasmussen gives the numbers as being 50/45 Blumenthal/McMahon: as a look at the polls over the last few months show , this race has been steadily tightening since Linda McMahon was nominated. Which is probably why Bill Clinton had to stump for Blumenthal ; the DSCC was and is not prepared to spend large sums of money on this race, and it shows. They’re also pretty clearly not prepared to handle the specter of an actual contest in Connecticut, and that also shows. You know, you hear a lot of criticism directed at the NRSC’s recruitment policy, and some of those criticism is justified, and some of it is not. But what you don’t hear is much criticism of the DSCC’s recruitment policy… and, frankly, they’ve been awful this cycle, even though they have the advantage of playing largely a defensive game. Blumenthal represents one of their better gets, and he’s been hemorrhaging support all summer.
Well, maybe Quinnipiac’s poll tomorrow will give the Democrats better news. Then again, maybe it won’t.
Moe Lane (Crosspost )
PS: There’s a debate scheduled for October 4th between Linda and Blumenthal; at this rate, the latter may be wishing that he had agreed to an earlier one…