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Rasmussen: McMahon (R CAND, CT-SEN) within five.

By: Moe Lane (Diary)  |  September 27th, 2010 at 11:30 AM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Update from Erick: Learn something new every day. Thanks to all the readers who have pointed out that this race is inside the margin of error. I always assumed that in a 4.5% margin of error, the race could go 2.25% either way for each candidate. But lots of readers are pointing out that a 4.5% margin of error goes to each candidate so each one can go up or down 4.5%, meaning McMahon could be up 4.5% and Blumenthal down 4.5%, thus putting this race squarely within the margin of error.

And McMahon aims to do all it takes to win. Works for me.
———-

Not quite inside MoE [UPDATE: to clarify, she's down by 5 and the MoE is 4.5.], but we’ve got a month to go.  Rasmussen gives the numbers as being 50/45 Blumenthal/McMahon: as a look at the polls over the last few months show , this race has been steadily tightening since Linda McMahon was nominated.  Which is probably why Bill Clinton had to stump for Blumenthal ; the DSCC was and is not prepared to spend large sums of money on this race, and it shows.  They’re also pretty clearly not prepared to handle the specter of an actual contest in Connecticut, and that also shows.  You know, you hear a lot of criticism directed at the NRSC’s recruitment policy, and some of those criticism is justified, and some of it is not.  But what you don’t hear is much criticism of the DSCC’s recruitment policy… and, frankly, they’ve been awful this cycle, even though they have the advantage of playing largely a defensive game.  Blumenthal represents one of their better gets, and he’s been hemorrhaging support all summer.

Well, maybe Quinnipiac’s poll tomorrow will give the Democrats better news.  Then again, maybe it won’t.

Moe Lane (Crosspost )

PS: There’s a debate scheduled for October 4th between Linda and Blumenthal; at this rate, the latter may be wishing that he had agreed to an earlier one…

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  • smitch61

    She will pull it off. 10% unemployment is unacceptable for any president or any party, especially either party that has total control. I have not seen one political ad this season touting the benefit of 10% unemployment.

  • rdelbov

    that the quality-IMO-as democrat candidates are below the GOP ones. Yes recruitment has something to do with that. Honestly recruitment is a misnomer. From my expirence with pols they don’t lack ambition –candidate recruitment is more doing polls showing people they have a chance and promising them the resources to win will be there for them. These candidates have the spark.

    Not many candidates are shocked or surprised when someone mentions them for a US senate seat. Believe me 85% of the US senate seem themselves as President-80% of house members see themselves as senators or governors and just continue down the food chain to dogcatcher.

    Now why the democrats in CT gave Blumenthal the bearhug instead of Susan B (lt Gov) is another matter. Blumenthal supposely has been eyeing Joe Lieberman’s seat-which is now what Susan B is eyeing.

    Candidate recruitment is nearly a dirty word here at Redstate. If the NRSC fails to recruit a top candidate as they did in OR/HI/NYB/NYA then everyone shakes their finger at them. If they recruit someone who can win a seat but does fit 100% of their ideological purity then they are RINO loving establishment folks.

    They are NRSC and not NRSCC or National Republican Senatorial Conservative committee.

    That being said the only candidate that the NRSC contributed money to before a primary(this cycle) was Charlie Crist. I deplore weasel Charlie but lets be clear he scared away all the serious democrats and we now have Meeks. Meeks is a sure loser in a two way contest with any republican and frankly he is looking like a certain loser in a three way contest. So Crist cleared the field for either himself or as it happens Rubio. Its convoluted logic-on my part-but one could argue that the $10K given to Crist (from the NRSC) was well spent. No top flight democrat wanted to take on Crist so he killed candidate recruitment on their side in Florida.

  • irishfreedomfighter

    I haven’t seen a single Blumenthal sign, but I’ve seen at least 50 McMahon signs, and I don’t even live in the more conservative part of the state. She’s not a great candidate, but we’re lucky they nominated Blumenthal over Dodd. He might have been unpopular but he was no pushover. BLumenthal is pathetic. She may very well pull this out, and maybe she’ll be able to pull Foley, Caligiuri, Debicella and even Peckinpaugh (if we’re really, really, lucky) over the top.