Let’s look at Illinois.
- IL-02: In wake of Jesse Jackson Jr’s being rather spectacularly accused of seat-buying-and-adultery, the NRCC is upping their support of Republican Isaac Hayes. Because when you’re given a free shot, you should of course take it.
- IL-08: QuincyNews.org is going to release [has released] a poll that shows Joe Walsh and incumbent Melissa Bean tied among registered voters. Guess that she should maybe start accepting those copies of the Constitution that people keep offering her.
- IL-17: Speaking of the Constitution and not knowing what’s in it, incumbent Phil Hare is now trailing Bobby Schilling in the latest Tarrance Group poll, 44/43: another technical tie, but a bad place for an incumbent to be. The DCCC will be trying to bail Hare out; and no, this is not supposed to be fertile ground for Republican pickups.
- IL-SEN: Mark Kirk continues to be ahead, but the real news of the day is that Alexi Giannoulias took a tax deduction for working at Broadway Bank in 2006; he previously claimed that he stopped working there in 2005. This means that, according to statements that he made the IRS, he was actually on the scene when his family’s bank was giving out questionable loans. His lying about this to the people of Illinois is not illegal; but it is, obviously, a lie.
- IL-GOV: At what point should we just declare DOOM for Pat Quinn and get it over with? Bill Brady is dominating this race.
I think that covers it for right now… oh, yes:
- FL-08: Daniel Webster is not eating Alan Grayson’s spleen in this latest poll, but only because he doesn’t know where Grayson has been. This has nothing to do with Illinois, but I’m pretty sure that people will forgive me for bringing it up.
Moe Lane (Crosspost)
Moe Lane
Dan Spencer
Dan McLaughlin
Jeff Emanuel
I think the real problem for the Dems is the Governor's race.
Brian Hibbert (Diary) Wednesday, September 29th at 3:51PM EDT (link)It’s the race that will bring people to the polls. And the Dems aren’t real excited about their governor. I think the turnout of their side will be low. That’s going to have a major impact all the way down the ticket.
Candidate for Trustee of Illinois Central College
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While putting up campaign signs yesterday
anacreon (Diary) Wednesday, September 29th at 6:47PM EDT (link)around the county, I saw exactly ONE Quinn sign. And I was everywhere in the county yesterday. Giannoulias signs could have been counted on one hand – without using my thumb.
Brady leading Quinn and voters coming out to throw Quinn out of office can only help down ticket as you said.
My only worries are that with the polls showing GOP leads, will the voters get complacent and stay home thereby we lose a few races around the state we could have won?
www.downstateiladvocate.com
I Think That Worry Is Pretty Moot - GOP Voters Tend Not To Stay Home
IJB Wednesday, September 29th at 8:26PM EDT (link)Especially not in an environment such as 2010′s.
In 2006, when the environment was hostile to Republicans? Then, yeah, sure, I’m sure some discouraged Republicans stayed home.
But in 2010?! I doubt there’s a Republican in either IL, or anywhere else in the country, who wouldn’t crawl over *broken glass* to cast their vote!
This year, I think GOTV problems among partisan Republicans are overblown – where the GOTV needs to focused is on Indies fed up with Obama and the Dems…
Received absentee ballot last Thursday...
audax (Diary) Thursday, September 30th at 4:50AM EDT (link)…and mailed it Friday…..one more GOP vote! Have everyone on my e-mail lists contacted and they are voting and also contacting their e-mail lists….I CAN SEE NOVEMBER FROM MY HOUSE!!!
Audeamus pro audere est facere
Poll: Brady 40: Quinn 38: Cohen 14...uh oh
redneck_hippie (Diary) Thursday, September 30th at 10:29AM EDT (link)What happens when Cohen’s poll % moves into Quinns. Not liking this. I’m doubtful whether the machine will be able to drag Cohen off of the state.
http://www.myfoxchicago.com/dpp/news/politics/illinois-governor-poll-quinn-brady-cohen-20100929
that's drag Cohen off of the stage..nt
redneck_hippie (Diary) Thursday, September 30th at 10:30AM EDT (link)Its only a CNN/Time poll
Illinicon (Diary) Thursday, September 30th at 1:38PM EDT (link)They also have had polls in the last two weeks showing Rand Paul and Joe Miller with only 2 points leads. A PPP poll, this morning has Brady lead down to 7 from 9 in their last polling of the race. I buy that Quinn could be “surging” right now, since this a democratic state and in other simlairly blue states Scott Brown and Chris Christie won their races by 4-5 points, but I doubt he gets any closer than that.
My Potus shortlist
declared candidates:
1. Tim Pawlenty
2. Herman Cain
3. Gary Johnson
4. Rick Santorum
among declared and rumored candidates:
1. Rick Perry
2. Tim Pawlenty
3. Rudy Giuilani
4. Herman Cain
Polling in Illinois
adair Thursday, September 30th at 3:38PM EDT (link)Has anyone polled the 12th District (Costello-D)? He was one of the 11 “pro-lifers” who stood there with Stupak and pretended to believe that Obama’s Executive Order prohibiting tax funding of abortions would hold. Then he voted Yes for Obamacare, after vowing not to for months prior to that.
His constituents were polled and came out 65% against Obamacare; but he betrayed them anyway.
So is Teri Davis Newman just going to be allowed to go away because she refuses to take PAC money and doesn’t have the several $m nest egg that Costello has as a result of squirreling away contributions to his “campaigns” in two years when he ran unopposed? Won’t the Ill. Republicans send a little dough her way, and talk about her, and encourage people to vote for her?
Costello hangs on by pointing to his being “pro life” (Teri really is); pro-2nd Amendment (Teri has a Concealed Carry Permit from when she lived in Florida); and threatening that Republicans would “destroy Social Security” and “close Scott Airbase.” Scott stays open through the efforts and strength of Kit Bond more than any prestige that Costello pretends to have. Oh, wait. Every two years he fills the potholes in St. Clair County..
Costello is really a schlumph! Why can’t we get help to get rid of him!! There is a part of Illinois that is not Chicago, you know.
I'm not so worried about Cohen
anacreon (Diary) Thursday, September 30th at 6:53PM EDT (link)The Green party candidate Rich Whitney took 10.4% in the 2006 election. There will be protest votes, but Cohen has massive baggage that forced him (or was forced) to resign the Lt. Gov. spot he won in the primary. Those issues have still not gone away.
Furthermore, Topinka took downstate by 68% and I see Brady eclipsing that number no problem. I’ve seen exactly 1 Quinn sign since I wrote the above reply. 3 Giannoulias signs. In my county, I would not be surprised in the slightest if Brady gets 70% – 75% of the vote – and that’s a conservative number. Quinn is not liked in anyway downstate (at least in my parts of Illinois) and many GOP voters are excited to get to vote for someone running for Governor that is from outside the Chicago area. Many of us remember Gov. Edgar as the last good Governor we had – and he was from downstate.
http://www.uic.edu/depts/pols/ChicagoPolitics/Green2006ILelectionAnalysis.pdf
www.downstateiladvocate.com
Pollak fights good fight in IL-9 with TV ad1
redneck_hippie (Diary) Wednesday, September 29th at 4:32PM EDT (link)30-second intro spot aired this AM on local CBS affiliate:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zdTV15j6PbI
Joel is running against Social Democrat Jan Schakowsky whose most recent opinion states that because women have a right to abortion, we are obligated to fund them publicly, and she calls for the repeal of the Hyde Amendment. (h/t CNSnews).
Joel has a link up for phone banking at his website:
http://www.pollakforcongress.com/
IL-14 is Doing Well Too
Ghost of John Brown Wednesday, September 29th at 5:32PM EDT (link)Randy Hultgren, who is a great conservative candidate, is ahead of Freshman Congressman Bill Foster. Driving around the District, there are tons of signs for Hultgren and only a few 2×2 signs for Foster, and a good portion of them are illegally placed in the roadway instead of in people’s yards, so it is just staffers randomly putting them up.
Don't forget IL-11
SeeBS (Diary) Wednesday, September 29th at 5:35PM EDT (link)Adam Kinsinger is a Veteran, a hero, and has Debbie Halvorson grasping at straws:
http://www.electadam.com/news.asp?artid=217
unfortunetly, the NRA gave Halvorson a boost
Illinicon (Diary) Wednesday, September 29th at 6:11PM EDT (link)yesterday by endorsing her. I get that the NRA wants to have bipartisan support on the hill and Halvorson isnt a gun grabber like other Illinois Democrats, but poltically she is nearly toast and Kinzinger has made his support of the 2nd admendment a big part of his platform. Its membership in the district will likely vote for Kinzinger on a 2.5 or 3 to 1 basis, so giving some political life to a person that a good deal of its membership doesnt want representing them only hurts them.
My Potus shortlist
declared candidates:
1. Tim Pawlenty
2. Herman Cain
3. Gary Johnson
4. Rick Santorum
among declared and rumored candidates:
1. Rick Perry
2. Tim Pawlenty
3. Rudy Giuilani
4. Herman Cain
And Perriello Is Toast in VA-05 Too, According To SurveyUSA (nt)
IJB Wednesday, September 29th at 5:59PM EDT (link)No one is "toast" quite yet (although a few are golden brown)
Change Jar Conservative (Diary) Wednesday, September 29th at 6:22PM EDT (link)We need to keep fighting and talking about getting out to vote.
Use your facebook statuses to remind people to get absentee or early voter ballots if they travel for work a lot (and are conservative)
********
Formerly know as “Oz” in these parts
Go Kirk and Brady
proudgop (Diary) Wednesday, September 29th at 10:00PM EDT (link)Adam, Walsh, Hultgran, and Shilling
My only worry is this Green party numbers ( people may switch to Dem at last moment) but keep in mind Republicans won’t win US Senate Seat in IL in cakewalk even Fitzgerald barely beat Mossley Braun when she was as corrupt as they come
OT Glad to see Florida Gov numbers in our favor now ( big news of day)
Interesting tidbit. Pollak will file a House ethics complaint
redneck_hippie (Diary) Thursday, September 30th at 7:36PM EDT (link)against Schakowsky on Monday.
I suspect this is a serious complaint, as Pollak has called Schakowsky out repeatedly over her Shorebank machinations, as well as another action where she appeared to be steering federal stimulus project money to a donor of hers.
This one was written up in Crains Chicago Business today as Schakowsky stops Devon Avenue foreclosures.
http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20100930/NEWS02/100939990/schakowsky-stops-devon-ave-foreclosures