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Democratic Death Panel Watch, 10/07/2010.

By: Moe Lane (Diary)  |  October 7th, 2010 at 03:07 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Via Hotline, here are the latest races where the DCCC has begun the euthanasia process:

  • AZ-08.  The incumbent is Gabrielle Giffords, facing Jesse Kelly.  The DCCC has cut one week’s worth of ad buys, claiming that Giffords doesn’t need its help.  Cook rates this race as Leans Democratic; polling is very sparse, but shows a tie.
  • CO-04.  The incumbent is Betsy Markey (yes, the one who has her supporters babbling about internment camps): her opponent is Cory Gardner.  They’ve cut back her outside ads, probably because she can’t get any traction (and has supporters babbling about internment camps).  Cook rates this race as Toss-Up: the most recent polling shows Gardner ahead.
  • FL-24.  The incumbent is Suzanne Kosmas; her opponent is Sandy Adams.  Like Markey, her outside ads have been cut.  The DCCC is claiming to be planning to still match the NRCC’s buys there. Cook rates this race as Toss-Up: there is no recent polling, but RCP lists the seat as Leans GOP.
  • KS-03.  Open seat.  Democratic candidate Stephene Moore, facing Republican candidate Kevin Yoder.  The DCCC has canceled one week’s worth of ad buys. Cook rates this race as Leans Republican: there is no recent polling, but RCP lists the seat as Leans GOP.
  • NM-02.  The incumbent is Harry Teague; his opponent is Steve Pearce.  Here the DCCC is moving its ad buys down a week in either an attempt to firewall, or as a preliminary to canceling them altogether. Cook rates this race as Toss-Up: the most recent polling has Pearce ahead.

There’s also LA-02, but that might legitimately be the DCCC thinking that they don’t need to worry about that race. The article also mentions IN-08 and TX-17, but that were covered a couple of days ago.

As Ed Morrissey over at Hot Air notes on a related topic (where the DCCC is spending money now), “Democrats can spin about base turnout and loyalty all day long, but money talks and spinmeisters walk.”  Every district listed above is one where the Democratic candidate can be legitimately seen to be behind the Republican one.  But at the same time, these are not districts where the incumbents are pushovers; almost every one of them has experience in winning a difficult election.  That they’re losing now tells you a lot of how bad the wave may be.

I also wonder how many of these ‘delayed’ ad buys will become ‘disappeared’ ad buys next week. Probably more than a few.

Moe Lane (crosspost)

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  • earlgrey

    They didn’t care what I had to say or what was in the bill.

  • charpaddy

    Yes, Kosmos, come on out and tell us all how you VOTED FOR deathcare, darlin’!!

    You are a piece of garbage who would not listen to constituents. You would not meet with them.

    SO GLAD FOR THIS NEWS!! Guess your pals in the dim party see the writing on the wall, SK. What goes around, comes around, Kosmos!!! YEAH!!!

    OWN IT, DIMS!!! OWN IT!!!

    We told you that if you signed on for deathcare, you would NEVER be a sitting rep again…and guess what? WE WERE RIGHT!!! You aren’t our ruler. You don’t know better than we do. HELLO????

    Go Adams!!

    I can see November from my window! What’s taking it so long?

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001624140602 BigGator5

    I was listening to the radio this morning, and Sandy Adams mentioned an article I did about her during the interview. Then a campaign aid from her camp emailed me. I laughed for an hour thinking it was too funny.

    GO ADAMS!!

  • charpaddy

    Very nice article, thanks for the link….

    When kosmos voted FOR deathcare, I yelled at the radio and called that woman every name in the book (all of which, if I named them, would get me banned)

    I AM SO GLAD that soon she will be EX REP Kosmos and boy, I hope she is reminded of that EVERY REMAINING DAY OF HER SORRY LIFE. (of course, she will get gold card healthcare, while we, the minions get a red or blue pill)

    Truly, I so hate her. She THOUGHT she ruled us.

    TEA PARTY RULE!!! TEA PARTY RULE!!!!

  • usadying

    She doesn’t need the money.

  • aesthete

    Support him, folks. If you donated to O’Donnell, you can surely donate to Kelly: votejessekelly.com

  • http://www.campaignfreedom.org Brad Smith

    In Florida 24, dueling internal polls were released in late September. A Kosmos internal released September 26 showed her up 45-43. Adams then released an internal by Fabrizio showing her up 49-39. The last poll before that, by Public Opinion Strategies in early September, showed Adams up 49-37. Summer polls also showed Adams up. You’ve got to figure she’s in the driver’s seat in this one.

  • http://www.thehayride.com MacAoidh

    …while Richmond is leading in the polls at present (he’s up 11 in a PPP poll, the sample of which was probably several points more Democratic than the actual electorate will be), it’s close – and it might be fluid.

    A couple of pieces worth a look…

    http://thehayride.com/2010/10/the-mother-of-all-idiotic-race-baiting-democrat-statements/

    http://thehayride.com/2010/10/hotair-not-a-lot-of-sympathy-for-cao/

  • IJB

    I have two relatives who live in that district, including a self-proclaimed “Libertarian” who voted for Giffords in either 2006 and 2008, and both of them *can’t wait* to vote her out this time.

    All her ads are doing is reminding AZ-08 residents how much they hate her.

    Also, the $78k figure quoted for Kelly is probably the end of Q2 figure (e.g. from June) – I don’t think his Q3 figure has been released yet…

  • IJB

    Considering his profile in the district, he could almost be considered a “quasi-incumbent” in his own right.

    The fact that even PPP doesn’t put Richmond over 50% is telling, IMO.

    I don’t think either HI-02 or LA-02 can be put in the “D column” yet – I think at least one of those will hold for the GOP, and it wouldn’t surprise me if we hold both…

  • taxpayer1234

    When she was first elected, she seemed to have a spine. As one of her constituents, I held out hope that she’d actually represent our interests. She voted against HC in the first round, but flip-flopped and voted for it in the second round. Her explanation was lame, especially considering that the version which passed the House was worse than the first pass.

    Thanks for the post, Moe. I wondered why I hadn’t heard anything at all about Markey’s campaign until Pena (another sore on Colorado’s butt) displayed his idiocy on her behalf.

  • minister_of_war

    Jesse Kelly so far looks totally inept as a candidate. Giffords has two ads out right now attacking Kelly for wanting to raise taxes on families because he said at one point that he supports a 23% national sales tax.

    It is stupid for him to have gone into specifics regarding the “fair tax”. Kelly’s ads sound whiny & are not focused enough. He has done nothing to beat her. And she has a ton of money to blow.

    That doesn’t mean that Kelly hasn’t put ads out there. He does have ads that are playing maybe once for every 2 of her ads. But she has done everything to pretend that she’s actually the Republican in the race.

    No where does she say that she’s a Dem & she has Republicans through out her ads – except for a young single mother who talks about how Kelly’s 23% sales tax would hurt her family. It pans to shots of her taking care of her young son, then as she shops at the store, and then as she tries to buy gas. She says that she couldn’t afford Kelly’s 23% added sales tax.

    Giffords is like a chameleon when she runs for re-election. If Kelly beats her, and it’s plausible that he still could, it won’t be because of anything he has said or done. It will only be because of a massive Republican blowout this November.

    My guess is that we will have to wait until Congressional districts are redrawn & State Senator Frank Antenori will take Giffords out 2 years from now. He’s a much better candidate & he’s a brutal scrapper too.

  • IJB
  • minister_of_war

    In Arizona’s 7th Congressional Distrist, a district gerrymandered to get one of the dumbest Democrats in the country elected, I would not be at all surprised if Ruth McClung beats Raul Grijalva.

    Grijalva has ran a horrible campaign & asking people to boycott his own district after the State Leg passed SB 1070 was the dumbest thing that I’ve ever seen any Congressman do. McClung released a poll about a week ago showing her only 7 points behind the fat mafioso open-border loving Grijalva.

    I’ve also seen McClung ads on the TV & they are very good. She attacks his call to boycott Arizona in a very affective way. One of her mottos has been: “Boycott Grijalva – Not Arizona”.

    Grijalva also doesn’t have a huge war chest like Giffords. So, I wouldn’t be at all shocked to see McClung to beat Grijalva while Giffords will probably still beat Kelly at the same time.

  • aesthete

    Gabby has inundated the stations with ads, but most of them are the usual “he wants to take away our Social Security” junk. Kelly has a great ad rebutting this charge, but I’ve only seen it run a few times. The ads that I’ve seen from Giffords all sound defensive, and the fact that she voted for ObamaCare isn’t helping. They’re running at about a dead heat right now, and Kelly mostly just needs funds, funds, and more funds.

  • cari

    It’s in District 30, which encompasses most of south Dallas county. The 18 year incumbent is Eddie Bernice Johnson, who was recently caught funneling CBC scholarship money to her own family members and the children of a top aide. This broke not only nepotism rules, but these students didn’t even live in her district. It has hurt her so badly, that the Dallas Morning News, for the first time in her career, has endorsed her opponent instead.

    Her opponent, Stephen Broden, a black Pastor and a tea party rock star, is quietly gaining ground. Recent internal poll results will not be released, but just know this-this race, once thought impossible, is winnable. How many more are there out this like this one?

  • minister_of_war

    I’m just saying things based upon what I’ve seen.

    My wife & I agree that Giffords’ “Kelly supports a new 23% national sales tax” ad is devistating. Most of her ads were expected to be just what you say, her attacking Kelly on Social Security. Blah, blah, blah…

    She decided no to play by that game though & instead attacks Jesse Kelly as the guy who wants to make this crazy new tax at a time when people in Southern Arizona are suffering. It might not be affective. I don’t know. But it seems affective & definitely forces Jesse Kelly to change the subject as as the Republican in the race suddenly have to play defense on the one issue that Republicans ALWAYS own.

    I want Jesse Kelly to win. But just like I felt in the Primary, it seems like he is in way over his head. If Jonathan Paton would have won the Republican Primary, I have no doubt that he would have beaten Giffords this year. He was much a much more polished politician, and although that doesn’t always matter, it matters against Giffords.

    I was just reading a blog posting talking about how Dems are now excited to see Giffords possibly take on Jon Kyl for US Senate in 2012. I don’t think that she’d beat someone as strong as Kyl, but if he decided not to run for reelection, she would be very tough in a General Election.

  • minister_of_war

    I am not a resident of Tucson.

    My family actually lives in unincorporated Pima County and thankfully outside of city limits where the communists that run the City of Tucson are far enough away that we can avoid their gulags most of the time.

    My parents on the other hand are stuck in Oro Valley, the closest thing to a police state in the Great State of Arizona.

  • http://www.thehayride.com MacAoidh

    …how many of Richmond’s skeletons come tumbling out of his closet.

    Because there are enough of them in there to tip that race even with the favorable demographics. It just depends on how much ends up in the open.

  • taxpayer1234
  • Adjoran

    but we have to realize it is nearly impossible. Johnson is almost assured to win because she runs with a “D” beside her name there. It would require a lot of people to actually be paying attention to what is going on, and that may be asking too much of her constituents.

  • biglarryk56

    Giffords, not unexpectedly, is lying about the Fair Tax. I have the same problem here in Arkansas with ads by Blanche Lincoln and Chad Causey (running for Marion berry’s AR-1 seat). The omissions about what the FairTax is and what it’s designed to do (replacing all income, payroll, estate, and capital gains taxes and abolishing the IRS) naturally gets omitted. Like the fair Tax or not, at least have an honest discussion about it. Damn liars!

  • biglarryk56

    Giffords islying about it…if you would simply go to the Fair Tax website (www.fairtax.org) and find out about it yourself, you’ll see that Giffords is lying by omission. Wise up!

  • minister_of_war

    What I was trying to say is that Giffords has changed the subject now & with her huge war chest is controlling the debate with Jesse Kelly. He’s not even really a proponent of the fair tax, she just has him in a clip saying that he would vote for it. He’s a bigger supporter of the flat tax.

    My point is not to bash on the legitimacy of the concept of a national sales tax to replace other federal taxes including the federal income tax, my point is that Giffords is probably running a better campaign than Jesse Kelly up to this point & unless he makes some big changes, he’s going to need to borrow as much of the Republican head wind as possible in order to win in November. In other words, he’s not doing that well by himself.

    We already know that Dems lie but he shouldn’t have put out the specific number of 23% if it wasn’t something that he actually wanted. And all that Giffords has to do is convince the freeloaders who Democrats target that a 23% national sales tax probably is a tax increase for them. And it could be since they get away without paying taxes in the first place. But regardless, those Democrat voters have already proven that they aren’t smart enough to understand the math or what is “fair” by voting for Democrats in the past.