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Missouri updates.

By: Moe Lane (Diary)  |  October 11th, 2010 at 06:00 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

It’s been an interesting week for Missouri, so I thought that I’d look at the races that matter on the federal level (all of the Republican-held House seats in Missouri are pretty much safe at this point).  In order:

  • MO-SEN: It would seem that Robin Carnahan’s desire to distance herself from the President is hurting her with a critical segment of Democratic voters: African-Americans, who do not see why a Democratic candidate should distance him- or herself from a Democratic President – and particularly this President.  Mind you, the way the race is improving for Roy Blunt, at this point we’re just seeing how far the rubble bounces anyway.
  • MO-01: Incumbent William Lacy Clay apparently thinks that a delay by the EPA in cleaning up a particular site is “environmental racism.”  And now you know why Robyn Hamlin is running for Congress.
  • MO-03: Hey, Ed Martin raised $400K last quarter!  We know this because it’s alarming the heck out of Russ Carnahan, who… neglected to mention how well he did.  Which is interesting, given that they were fairly close in cash-on-hand as of the middle of July.  Does Russ need more money from his family?
  • MO-04: Ike Skelton will attend candidate forums, sure – if you call him out on it enough – but he won’t take questions from the attendees, nor will he debate generally.   And now you know why Vicky Hartzler’s running, too.  24thState‘s reminded me that Vicky has a moneybomb going on today: hint, hint.
  • MO-05:  Emanuel Cleaver apparently learned his lesson from that disastrous attempt to race-bait the Tea Party: he’s been keeping a low profile since.  Jacob Turk for Congress anyway.

Good week, in other words.

Moe Lane (crosspost)

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  • IJB

    …To slam PPP/Kos’ recent WA-08 poll?

    It’s a ridiculous poll! Are we supposed to believe that the 58% vote for GOP candidates in the ‘jungle’ primary is going to shrink to a mere 49-50% of the general election vote? Or that Reichert’s post-primary “bounce” will only take him from 47% to 49-50% of the vote (whereas his opponent will magically instead gain 19%?!)

    I’m trying to give Tom and PPP the benefit of the doubt these days. But their recent work for Kos has really put that to the ultimate test… :|

    Back on topic: I definitely think MO-03 is a “sleeper” race – like AZ-07 and CA-51, if turnout is especially low in MO-03 I believe Carnahan will go down. :)

  • Finrod

    Remember: if it’s not close, they can’t cheat (enough to matter).

  • rdelbov

    for WA8 & MO is general

    I have to wonder if Robin Carnahan is not firing up the left at all? Is she a mini me Blanche LIncoln? I don’t see any of the lefties voting for Blunt but do they have to vote? Skelton-Sowers-among other democrats in MO are doing the “I am not a liberal” act. Talk about firing up the base??

  • fbks

    Redstate has a wealth of knowledgeable contributors and Alaska is subject to a three way race, including the incumbent running a write in campaign.

  • america1st

    especially the “Godfather” theme playing against the backdrop of the carrnahan wind farm . . . hilarious.

  • tomato

    Robin Carnahan had spent too much time and resources in the St. Louis area. She hasn’t shored up her base before trekking into the ‘burbs challenging Blunt. Carnahan has no hope winning in the Ozarks, though distancing from Obama is seductively easy beginning. However, that has her staying in the Democratic base known as MO-1 much too long to explain her blasphemy.

    Russ Carnahan’s devout belief in ObamaCare will doom both members of the family in his district. Missourians know that best suited to unseat ObamaCare from our lives isn’t anyone endorsing Pelosi/Reid.

  • itrytobenice

    Not that I have any polling info on it, but I want that seat *bad*. This is an R district in every other area except congress.

    Ike Skelton has been playing low profile, and did not engage in the most egregious Obamadisasters, but he still votes to put Nancy in the Speaker’s chair, so he needs to go home.

    Voting against Obamacare is not the only thing. He has voted with Nancy 90some percent of the time. He doesn’t belong in Congress representing this district.

  • onemovoter

    but this year I really do think he’s not going to survive. He’s been trying to “play a conservative on TV” but his opponent is doing good in bringing up all his recent votes. I’m hoping this time his conservative district will vote republican like they should.

    As far as the Senate Race Roy Blunt is not having any problems here. NRA has endorced Blunt, which I know… a shocker… but when NRA looked at Carnahan’s record on 2nd amendment it was a no brainer. There was also a straw poll done with about 6000 people and Blunt ended up with 66% of the votes. The straw poll started in 1980 and has never come out wrong for Missouri races.

  • GreyCloak

    … so Lisa Murkowski can’t win a Primary, but expects to be re-elected to her post of priviledge by write-ins?

    Alaskans are both few and willing to write in a name … if they think Lisa can deliver the pork.

    If this washed-up political scion can get herself some votes, she may get a Democrat elected in her stead.

    “Pride goweth before a fall,” and the political aristocracy is what is wrong with our Nation.

  • GreyCloak

    Does Missouri really want itself represented by Carnahans? I know they were so enthusiastic about the family that they elected a dead one, but to steal Obama’s words, “Isn’t it a time for a change?”