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DOOM from the Hill.

By: Moe Lane (Diary)  |  October 13th, 2010 at 12:00 AM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

I just got sent something that was pretty garbled, but the gist of it is: the Hill’s reporting on at least 10 House races. Of them, 2 have the Democrat ahead and the others have the Republican ahead. Or possibly it’s 22 races, and the GOP is ahead in 19, Democrat ahead in 2, 1 tie: as I said, what I got sent was a link to something that’s pretty garbled.

Names in parentheses are the Republican candidates (the Democratic ones can fend for themselves).

Democrat Ahead
IL-10 (Kirk’s old seat) (Bob Dold)
WV-01 (David McKinkley)

Republican Ahead
TN-08 (Stephen Fincher)
WA-03 (Jaime Herrera)
AR-01 (Rick Crawford)
WI-057 (Sean Duffy)
HI-01 (Charles Djou)
PA-07 (Patrick Meehan)
NH-02 (Charlie Bass)
MI-01 (Dan Benishek)

There’s a lot of embarrassing results there for the Democrats, of course – but probably the two  most embarrassing are HI-01 and AR-01.  Charles Djou was scheduled to be a pushover and placeholder (guess nobody told him); and Rick Crawford is leading his race by 12 points, in a district that hasn’t had a Republican representing it in a century.  Guess the prognosticators are going to have to do some more revising…

Moe Lane (crosspost)

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COMMENTS

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  • SoFiMil

    Thanks for persevering, Moe!

    As in baseball, there’s a big difference noticeable difference between the clubhouse/dugout that’s winning and the clubhouse/dugout that’s loosing.

  • http://www.libertylives.org madnorskie

    Sean Duffy’s district is WI-7. Can’t wait to see him in Congress.

  • IJB

    I think what they mean is that *this week’s* poll results are for 10 open seats, but when you combine this week’s poll results with last week’s poll results for the 12 freshman Dem-held seats, you get to 22 total districts.

    So of the total 22 for the two weeks of House poll results, you get the GOP ahead in 19, the Dems ahead in two (IL-10, and barely ahead in WV-01…), and 1 tied (MI-07).

  • Pirohy

    These are open seats so we can’t assume we’ll get most of the undecideds.
    Our candidates need to finish strong!

  • IJB

    AR-01 (OPEN)
    Chad Causey (D) – 34%
    Rick Crawford (R) – 46%

    HI-01 (post-Special)
    Colleen Hanabusa (D) – 41%
    Charles Djou (R) – 45%

    IL-10 (OPEN)
    Dan Seals (D) – 49%
    Robert Dold (R) – 37%

    MI-01 (OPEN)
    Gary McDowell (D) – 39%
    Dan Benishek (R) – 42%

    NH-02 (OPEN)
    Ann Kuster (D) – 42%
    Charlie Bass (R) – 45%

    PA-07 (OPEN)
    Bryan Lentz, (D) – 39%
    Patrick Meehan (R) – 40%

    TN-08 (OPEN)
    Roy Herron (D) – 37%
    Stephen Fincher (R) – 47%

    WA-03 (OPEN)
    Denny Heck (D) – 40%
    Jaime Herrera (R) – 42%

    WI-07 (OPEN)
    Julie Lassa (D) – 35%
    Sean Duffy (R) – 44%

    WV-01 (OPEN-Inc. beaten in Primary)
    Mike Oliverio (D) – 42%
    David McKinley (R) – 39%

    Analysis:
    Of these, AR-01, TN-08 and WI-07 are definitely *gone* for the D’s.

    I am incredulous of the WA-03 results here as they, 1) deviate substantially from the ‘jungle’ primary results, and 2) they deviate substantially from earlier SurveyUSA poll results in WA-03.

    Ditto, to a lesser extent, MI-01, and PA-07, where the margins here are less than previous polling.

    Meanwhile, this is the second poll result in a row to show Djou ahead – I think he has a real shot at holding HI-01! :)

    Beyond that, WV-01 still looks winnable.

    But IL-10 (and these poll results are in line with previous polling, unfortunately…) looks out of reach for us, I fear. (Which means IL-10, DE-AL, and LA-02 all look like probable losses… :( )

  • itsjoanne

    A republican representing the district Obama spent his childhood, and hasn’t had a GOP rep for years and years. :)

  • IJB

    …Which means we could get by with taking *less than half* of the undecideds, and still win almost all of them!

    And, in the current environment, undecideds are more likely than not to break to GOP candidates, even in open seat races.

    IOW, I feel like our odds are good to very good in *all* of these, save IL-10…
    :)

  • Pirohy

    If the undecideds break Dem by 3-2, we lose 6 of the 10 races.

  • http://moelane.com/ Moe Lane

    Fixed.

  • Oz

    Nine of these twelve (all but HI-1 WV-1 Il-10) are already in RCP’s “lean Republican” so these just tell us that we are on our way to 211 but don’t really portend a landslide or anything.

    It is good to be ahead but we’re still three weeks before we have done anything and a good bit of get out the vote.

  • earlgrey

    Not sure how many calls I have made at this point, but it hasn’t been easy– lots of hang ups. It would be great if the canddiate I have put so much effort into could pull out a win.

    There is also an independent in the race playing spoiler I guess.

  • swami7774

    I’m curious why this race isn’t on most national radar screens. Is it assumed that it will remain Democrat? There’s a good chance it won’t.

  • IJB

    I guess their budget was too limited to poll all of the open seats.

    It’s too bad, as I definitely would have liked to seen polling from MA-10, IN-08, and KS-03 too, at least…

  • swami7774

    …could be interesting too. In MA-4, Sean Bielat is getting national help in his fight to rid us all of Barney Frank.
    And in MA-6, John Tierney is sinking amidst his wife’s tax evasion case.

  • proudgop

    IN 8, KS3, PA 3, Kosmas in FL, OH 1, TN 8 and I can see why

    Another poll this week had Meehan up 4% in PA race it also showed Sestak only up 49 to 46% in his home district.

    WV 1 numbers look good in that Oliverio knocked off an incumbent and is still not that far ahead

    IL 10 is tough one but again this is Seals 3rd race in row and he still can’t reach 50% in that it bodes well for Dold if he can be aligned with Kirk

  • cari

    Stephen Broden (R) who is challenging scandal-ridden 18 year incumbent
    Eddie Bernice Johnson (D)
    just had some internal polling reveal he is one point away from the MOE.

    This race is WINNABLE! Please pray! Please help if you can!

    brodenforcongress.com

  • saintgeorgegentile

    Real Clear Politics moved this race from Likely Dem to Leans Dem today. Haven’t seen any polls but it may be the result of Palin endorsing Philpot last week. Or maybe it’s the foreign money influence from those CoC commercials being run for Matheson.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/house/2010_elections_house_map.html

    http://www.philpotforcongress.com/

  • Viator

    ”These two entities — Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac — are not facing any kind of financial crisis,” said Representative Barney Frank of Massachusetts, the ranking Democrat on the Financial Services Committee. ”The more people exaggerate these problems, the more pressure there is on these companies, the less we will see in terms of affordable housing.”

    ?Low-income home ownership has been a mistake, and I have been a consistent critic of it,?? said Frank, 70. Republicans, he said, were principally responsible for failing to reform Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the mortgage giants the government seized in September 2008.”

    http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2010/10/barney-frank-then-and-now.html

    http://www.seanbielat.org/

  • irishfreedomfighter

    Cook and most others have it as lean Dem, but RCP has it at tossup. I’d be surprised if Perry loses, he’s a great conservative and a strong campaigner. Even Robert O’Leary’s (Dem that lost in the primary) campaign staffers acknowledged that Perry is leading the race. When I spoke to one of them, he told me that their polling was showing Perry up by double digits. Hope this helps.

    Michaud
    Pingree
    Shea-Porter
    Kuster
    Tsongas
    Tierney
    Keating
    Frank (Fwank)
    McGovern
    Cicilline
    Courtney
    Larson
    Himes
    Murphy

    Turn New England from Blue to Red. We can beat all of these guys.

  • miri

    These poll results are disappointing. I thought we really had a chance even in these very liberal suburbs. This is purely anecdotal evidence, but there are lots of yard signs for Dold here, more than for Seals. Also, the Chicago Tribune just endorsed Dold. For the primaries as many Republicans turned out as Democrats, so let’s not give up yet!