The DCCC confirmed to Politico that WI-08’s Steve Kagen had his ad buys canceled; the usual face-saving excuses were made, but the two-term Congressman is a dead man walking (with some help from Reid Ribble). Also, it looks like AR-02’s Joyce Elliott has been likewise abandoned: I don’t think that that one’s really hit the radar yet, probably because it was an open seat and heavily favoring Republican Tim Griffin anyway.
Just for the heck of it, I went and pulled the latest Cook Political Report on the House races, on the suspicion that the DCCC was using it to do some triage. Here’s the breakdown of Cook’s Lean Republican slate, Democratic edition:
|AZ-01||Ann Kirkpatrick||Yes||Paul Gosar|
|CO-04||Betsy Markey||Yes||Cory Gardner|
|FL-08||Alan Grayson||No, thank God.||Daniel Webster|
|FL-24||Suzanne Kosmas||Yes||Sandy Adams|
|IL-11||Debbie Halvorson||Yes||Adam Kinzinger|
|KS-03||OPEN (Moore)||Yes||Kevin Yoder|
|MI-01||OPEN (Stupak)||No Way||Dan Benishek|
|OH-01||Steve Driehaus||Yes||Steve Chabot|
|OH-15||Mary Jo Kilroy||No Way||Steve Stivers|
|PA-03||Kathy Dahlkemper||Yes||Mike Kelly|
|PA-07||OPEN (Sestak)||Not Yet||Pat Meehan|
|TN-08||OPEN (Tanner)||Yes||Stephen Fincher|
|TX-17||Chet Edwards||Yes||Bill Flores|
|VA-02||Glenn Nye||Not Yet||Scott Rigell|
|VA-05||Tom Perriello||Not Yet||Robert Hurt|
|WA-03||OPEN (Baird)||Yes||Jaime Herrera|
|WI-08||Steve Kagen||Yes||Reid Ribble|
…and I think that my suspicions were correct. Of the seventeen Democrats incumbents/open seats on that list, eleven have already been cut by the DCCC. Of the remainder, I expect that everybody with the ‘Not Yet’ designator will soon lose their own funding: the polling just isn’t there for the two Virginians and the Sestak open seat doesn’t have enough notoriety to justify dumping more money down it.
That leaves three: of them, MI-01 is turning into a grudge match between the DCCC & the NRCC. They have to fight it out somewhere: guess that the UP is as good a place as any. As for Alan Grayson and Mary Jo Kilroy… if the DCCC cuts them loose, the netroots will rise up against the DCCC as quickly as they hear the news. Possibly using actual artillery. It’s nonsensical to throw money down those particular ratholes, of course; but then, Grayson and Kilroy are equally nonsensical, so it at least makes thematic sense.
So, important safety tip for Democrats: don’t let yourself get downgraded below Toss-up on Cook’s list; actually, don’t let yourself get downgraded below Leans Democratic, but it’s pretty clear by now that the folks at the DCCC are checking that list about as obsessively as I do. And that they’re making financial decisions accordingly.
Have a nice day!
Moe Lane (crosspost)