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Democratic Death Panel Watch: October 18, 2010.

  • Looks like Harry Teague (NM-02) has outlived his usefulness: the DCCC is pulling funds out of his race and throwing them at Martin Heinrich’s in NM-01.  This is probably due to Teague’s recent fading in the polls against challenger Steve Pearce, which is apparently being helped along by revelations about Teague’s canceling of his own private employees’ health care plans.  It’s also interesting that the DCCC thinks that Heinrich needs the help; apparently Jon Barela is worrying them more than they let on.  Cook rates this race as [Toss-Up, and NM-01 as Leans Democratic.]

The DCCC has also picked four new races to try to build its latest firewall:

As Hotline noted in the link above, the last three races were not considered particularly risky before now, although all of them are currently considered not-safe; that they’re getting money now while a plethora of seats that are at risk for the Democrats don’t is fairly significant.  And no, it’s not because they have the money to spare.  If they did, they wouldn’t be abandoning Harry Teague.

Moe Lane (crosspost)

*I have an interview with her that still needs to be processed; a medical emergency on my end unfortunately delayed it.

[UPDATE: Maybe I'm more ill than I thought.  Far too many name errors in this post for my liking. - ML]

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COMMENTS

  • howardbeale

    Article begins with a bullet point. At the end of the first bullet point:

    “…apparently Jon Barela is worrying them more than they let on. Cook rates this race as”

    As what? A toss-up? A slight edge to Barela?

  • http://moelane.com/ Moe Lane

    it was supposed to end with [Toss-Up, and NM-01 as Leans Democratic.] Oops… :)

  • earlgrey
  • IJB

    So, to finish Moe’s thought – the DCCC is now pumping money into races that are “officially” rated as “leans Democrat”.

    Put another way – if the Dems are already giving up on the numerous “toss up” races in favor of *leans Dem* seats, then the battle for the House is already over: We’ve won! :)

    The question now is simply – how big will the “win” be?!…

  • http://moelane.com/ Moe Lane

    :)

  • iowa2012

    IA-02 is a blue district. D+7 partisan index. Voted for Gore y 10%, Kerry by11% and Obama by 22%.. Miller-Meeks ran against Loebsack last election and lost by 18%.. No polling that I know of in this district and considered “safe” by all the pundits. Linn county contains Iowa’s 2nd biggest city of Cedar Rapids which is highly unionized and usually brings a great ground game for Democrats. Johnson county contains Iowa City and the U. of Iowa. Extremely high turnout in Johnson county in 2008 helped Loebsack but may not be there in an off year election. The other 10 counties in the district will go for Miller-Meeks but all are very rural and more difficult to organize. But, the fact that the DCCC is putting money shows that Miller-Meeks is within striking distance which has to be a scary omen for Democrats. If the Dems lose IA-02 then you know the wave has arrived.

  • Adjoran

    to watch Lincoln Davis in TN, suspecting he could “unexpectedly” find himself in a tight race. The same individual (with national party connections, though no official position this cycle) also said if Davis WAS in trouble, the wave was much bigger than being imagined at the time.

    Still, we must not get cocky. The Dems have a time-tested method for overcoming the “enthusiasm gap” – in the South they call it “walking around money” but it is all over the country. They find their feckless supporters, be it in public housing projects, college campuses, or drunk in alleys, pay them, feed them, and bus them to the polls (sometimes, more than one). The voting machine doesn’t care how “enthusiastic” you are.

    Add to that their willingness to and experience at stealing close elections, and this is no “gimme.”

  • http://thesandsinstitute.org Vassar Bushmills

    …so please keep a watch, as I can’t. I said 5-6 of Cooks “Likely Dem” will lose. Knowing that will help in after-action analysis.
    Thanks
    VB

  • Cheryl

    is the district most affected by the cutoff of farm water in the San Joaquin valley. There are signs all up and down Interstate 5 and main highways tying Costa with Pelosi and Boxer and they have been up for well over a year. I’m shocked Cook still rates it “lean democrat.” I hear Vidak is running a strong campaign.

  • IJB

    Cardoza would be beatable too, but Berryhill (his GOP opponent) has raised very little money… :(

  • Cheryl

    and I would think Berryhill would have strong backing from the farm community, which may not be enough.

  • audax

    Here is a 4 part video of the WRKO radio debate between Barney and Sean.

    http://www.breitbart.tv/barney-frank-tantrums-bullies-and-sputters-his-way-through-debate/

    Now I know where they got the stereotype of Mr. Magoo

  • http://impudent.edublogs.org/ kyle8

    There are huge reserves of liberal stupid in his district.

  • earlgrey

    That we end up disappointed after working so hard