- Looks like Harry Teague (NM-02) has outlived his usefulness: the DCCC is pulling funds out of his race and throwing them at Martin Heinrich’s in NM-01. This is probably due to Teague’s recent fading in the polls against challenger Steve Pearce, which is apparently being helped along by revelations about Teague’s canceling of his own private employees’ health care plans. It’s also interesting that the DCCC thinks that Heinrich needs the help; apparently Jon Barela is worrying them more than they let on. Cook rates this race as [Toss-Up, and NM-01 as Leans Democratic.]
The DCCC has also picked four new races to try to build its latest firewall:
- AZ-07′s Raul Grijalva. Ruth McClung is the challenger, and a strong one*. Cook rating: Likely Democratic.
- CA-[20's Jim] Costa. Andy Vidak is the challenger. Cook rating: Lean Democratic.
- IA-02′s [Dave] Loebsack. Mariannette Miller-Meeks is the challenger. Cook rating: Likely Democratic.
- TN-04′s Lincoln Davis. Dr. Scott DesJarlais is the challenger. Cook rating: Lean Democratic.
As Hotline noted in the link above, the last three races were not considered particularly risky before now, although all of them are currently considered not-safe; that they’re getting money now while a plethora of seats that are at risk for the Democrats don’t is fairly significant. And no, it’s not because they have the money to spare. If they did, they wouldn’t be abandoning Harry Teague.
Moe Lane (crosspost)
*I have an interview with her that still needs to be processed; a medical emergency on my end unfortunately delayed it.
[UPDATE: Maybe I'm more ill than I thought. Far too many name errors in this post for my liking. - ML]
Moe Lane
Dan Spencer
Dan McLaughlin
Jeff Emanuel
Incomplete sentence?
howardbeale (Diary) Monday, October 18th at 2:40PM EDT (link)Article begins with a bullet point. At the end of the first bullet point:
“…apparently Jon Barela is worrying them more than they let on. Cook rates this race as”
As what? A toss-up? A slight edge to Barela?
Yeah, just got emailed that.
Moe Lane (Diary) Monday, October 18th at 2:52PM EDT (link)it was supposed to end with [Toss-Up, and NM-01 as Leans Democratic.] Oops…
The Kim Kardashian of blogging.
Check out my blog at http://moelane.com/.
http://moelane.com/filthy-lucre-filthy-lucre/
http://twitter.com/moelane
My (combined) wish list.
To Answer Your Question, Cook Rates NM-01 as "Leans Democrat"
IJB Monday, October 18th at 2:56PM EDT (link)So, to finish Moe’s thought – the DCCC is now pumping money into races that are “officially” rated as “leans Democrat”.
Put another way – if the Dems are already giving up on the numerous “toss up” races in favor of *leans Dem* seats, then the battle for the House is already over: We’ve won!
The question now is simply – how big will the “win” be?!…
Moe, hope emergency turned out OK. Nt
earlgrey (Diary) Monday, October 18th at 2:53PM EDT (link)[OT] Hopefully, it will.
Moe Lane (Diary) Monday, October 18th at 3:08PM EDT (link)The Kim Kardashian of blogging.
Check out my blog at http://moelane.com/.
http://moelane.com/filthy-lucre-filthy-lucre/
http://twitter.com/moelane
My (combined) wish list.
IA-02
iowa2012 Monday, October 18th at 3:46PM EDT (link)IA-02 is a blue district. D+7 partisan index. Voted for Gore y 10%, Kerry by11% and Obama by 22%.. Miller-Meeks ran against Loebsack last election and lost by 18%.. No polling that I know of in this district and considered “safe” by all the pundits. Linn county contains Iowa’s 2nd biggest city of Cedar Rapids which is highly unionized and usually brings a great ground game for Democrats. Johnson county contains Iowa City and the U. of Iowa. Extremely high turnout in Johnson county in 2008 helped Loebsack but may not be there in an off year election. The other 10 counties in the district will go for Miller-Meeks but all are very rural and more difficult to organize. But, the fact that the DCCC is putting money shows that Miller-Meeks is within striking distance which has to be a scary omen for Democrats. If the Dems lose IA-02 then you know the wave has arrived.
Someone told me a month ago
Adjoran (Diary) Monday, October 18th at 4:13PM EDT (link)to watch Lincoln Davis in TN, suspecting he could “unexpectedly” find himself in a tight race. The same individual (with national party connections, though no official position this cycle) also said if Davis WAS in trouble, the wave was much bigger than being imagined at the time.
Still, we must not get cocky. The Dems have a time-tested method for overcoming the “enthusiasm gap” – in the South they call it “walking around money” but it is all over the country. They find their feckless supporters, be it in public housing projects, college campuses, or drunk in alleys, pay them, feed them, and bus them to the polls (sometimes, more than one). The voting machine doesn’t care how “enthusiastic” you are.
Add to that their willingness to and experience at stealing close elections, and this is no “gimme.”
I'm holding to my same prediction, Moe
Vassar Bushmills (Diary) Monday, October 18th at 4:44PM EDT (link)…so please keep a watch, as I can’t. I said 5-6 of Cooks “Likely Dem” will lose. Knowing that will help in after-action analysis.
Thanks
VB
CA-20
Cheryl (Diary) Monday, October 18th at 7:01PM EDT (link)is the district most affected by the cutoff of farm water in the San Joaquin valley. There are signs all up and down Interstate 5 and main highways tying Costa with Pelosi and Boxer and they have been up for well over a year. I’m shocked Cook still rates it “lean democrat.” I hear Vidak is running a strong campaign.
“A general dissolution of principles and manners will more surely overthrow the liberties of America, than the whole force of the common enemy.” –Samuel Adams
“The administrative state has inserted its big paws into our houses, from the toilet bowl to the light socket. Now if it would just stretch those paws from the one to the other at the same time, we might begin to recapture the spirit of ’76.” –Scott Johnson, Powerlineblog.com
It's Too Bad About CA-18
IJB Monday, October 18th at 7:04PM EDT (link)Cardoza would be beatable too, but Berryhill (his GOP opponent) has raised very little money…
RCP now has CA-20 as a toss up
Cheryl (Diary) Tuesday, October 19th at 1:07AM EDT (link)and I would think Berryhill would have strong backing from the farm community, which may not be enough.
“A general dissolution of principles and manners will more surely overthrow the liberties of America, than the whole force of the common enemy.” –Samuel Adams
“The administrative state has inserted its big paws into our houses, from the toilet bowl to the light socket. Now if it would just stretch those paws from the one to the other at the same time, we might begin to recapture the spirit of ’76.” –Scott Johnson, Powerlineblog.com
When will Barney show up in the DOOMED list?
audax (Diary) Tuesday, October 19th at 5:54AM EDT (link)Here is a 4 part video of the WRKO radio debate between Barney and Sean.
http://www.breitbart.tv/barney-frank-tantrums-bullies-and-sputters-his-way-through-debate/
Now I know where they got the stereotype of Mr. Magoo
Audeamus pro audere est facere
not sure if we can count on Barney being kicked out
kyle8 (Diary) Tuesday, October 19th at 7:27AM EDT (link)There are huge reserves of liberal stupid in his district.
“Nothing works like freedom, Nothing succeeds like liberty”
Kyle
I agree. We can't affordnto set the bar so high
earlgrey (Diary) Tuesday, October 19th at 8:11AM EDT (link)That we end up disappointed after working so hard