This week’s adjustment by Cook is not that extensive, but it’s a doozy:
|MA-06||John Tierney||Bill Hudak|
|NJ-06||Frank Pallone||Anna Little|
|NC-04||David Price||BJ Lawson|
|OH-10||Dennis Kuchinich||Peter Corrigan|
|OR-04||Peter DeFazio||Art Robinson|
|TN-05||Jim Cooper||David Hall|
|TX-25||Lloyd Doggett||Donna Campbell|
Those are all formerly-safe races that are now abruptly… not-safe. They’ve all gone from Safe Democratic to Likely Democratic, but this kind of movement is consistent with a continuing drift towards the GOP side. It would be interesting to see what the Toss-Up and Lean Republican totals would look like right now if Cook was less conservative about assigning incumbents to the latter. Also: look at some of those names. There are some heavy hitters on the Democratic side on that list, and they’re even now being told the bad news. Will a week be enough time to topple them?
I don’t know. Let’s find out.
Moe Lane (crosspost)