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Cook’s DOOMList: 10/28/2010 edition.

By: Moe Lane (Diary)  |  October 29th, 2010 at 05:30 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

This may be the penultimate DOOMList from Cook with regard to the House: it’s the Friday before the election and there’s just not much time left for tracking the ongoing Democratic party’s synchronized mass career implosion.  Which is not to say that more extinction events won’t occur, but there’s a limit to how fast Cook can write them down.

Candidate District Ranking Challenger
Costa CA-20 Toss-Up Andy Vidak
Boyd FL-02 Lean R Steve Southerland
Marshall GA-08 Lean R Austin Scott
Minnick ID-01 Toss-Up Raul Labrador
Frank MA-04 Lean D Sean Bielat
Pingree ME-01 Lean D Dean Scontras
Heinrich NM-01 Toss-Up Jon Barela
Bishop NY-01 Toss-Up Randy Altschuler
Open TN-08 Likely R Stephen Fincher
Ortiz TX-27 Lean D Blake Farenthold
Connolly VA-11 Toss-Up Keith Fimian
Larsen WA-02 Toss-Up John Koster

I mildly regret to say that the latest readjustments included three that favored the Democratic party – two of which were to the benefit of Democratic incumbents.  It is regrettable to see any Democrat slip from our fingers, of course… but looking  at the list above, I think that we’ll all bear up under the crushing disappointment, somehow.  Particularly if Barney Frank continues to spiral inward…

Moe Lane (crosspost)

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COMMENTS

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  • chipbennett

    Moe,

    Have you, by chance, charted the change in the DOOM list over the course of the election cycle? I think the changes would be very interesting to see (perhaps even… *insert Dr. Evil pinkie-to-lip gesture here* wave-like?),graphically.

  • Robert Allen Leeper

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/house/2010_elections_house_map_race_changes.html

  • mark1957

    Gerry Connolly just got $1 million from Piglosi, it is desperation cash, he knows he is beat.

  • swami7774

    Word from inside Jim “Fidel” McGovern’s camp is that he’s in a race. A real race.
    This is one of those under-the-radar seats that could tip our way if the wave is Hawaii 5-Oh-ish.

  • http://masonconservative.typepad.com/the_mason_conservative Mason_Conservative

    Red State Army, I don’t live in the 11th (I live in the neighboring 8th), but I know the district from years living there and have volunteered for Keith in the past. BUT THIS MAN HAS TO WIN! He was with the tea party before their was a tea party, he was protesting in front of Connolly’s district office a year and a half ago when only 10 other people where there, over health care. Keith had descibed himself as someone who wants to go to Congress and “break china” and has openly called for Obamacare’s repeal.

    Keith Fimian could become a breakout conservative star in Congress if we elect him. He needs EVERYONE’s help!

  • proudmarinemom

    Campaigning for Fimian tomorrow.

  • proudmarinemom

    .

  • dpddj

    As of Friday:
    Republican challenger Dean Scontras has moved slightly ahead of incumbent U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree, although they remain in a statistical dead heat in their 1st Congressional District race, according to the fourth and final wave of The Maine Poll.

    Scontras, an alternative-energy entrepreneur from Eliot, received 45 percent of respondents’ support compared to 41 percent for Pingree, in the poll conducted Wednesday and Thursday for MaineToday Media by the Portland research firm Critical Insights.

  • zipbags

    On Fox tonight Shepard Smith was talking to Carl Cameron about the upcoming senate races. They were talk about the close ones and show the Real Clear Politics average. Well when they got to Nevada they showed Angle up by a half a point. I was surprised since I thought it was higher. So I went to RCP site and saw that the average is not up to 4pts….Thats a big difference. If I was watching MSNBC I would think they are trying to bolster the Dem. But, this is Fox. They also said the same about some other races.

  • swami7774

    …a few nights ago that the Kentucky Senate race “couldn’t be any tighter.”
    I think Paul is +6, average.

  • graciegirl
  • eburke
  • froster

    Who’s your source?

  • IJB

    For example, DE-AL just today had one poll (out of two) that showed a much narrower race than others have shown.

    It wouldn’t surprise me if either DE-AL or WV-03, or even both, ended up going our way.

    Now IA-03 is hard to judge – like IL-10, there have been few polls done there, and they’ve been wildly at variance. So I can’t get a feel for what’s going on there.

    Bottom line: Guess we’ll see who’s right soon enough…

  • IJB

    The best interpretation for ME Dems is that this firms’ polls have “skewed Republican”.

    But considering how relatively strong ME GOP early voting has been (D’s have a +5 registration edge on the GOP in ME, but are up only D+2 in early voting), I’m not sure these ME-01 and ME-02 polls can be dismissed so easily…

  • zipbags

    He was on with Greta and said Colorado is a dead heat with Bennet up by a half point. So I check with RCP which is what he was going by. They show Buck up by 1.4.

    He also said that in West Virginia the lawyers from both sides are already in town ready to fight any election outcome. So unless its a win by a few points…Expect legal challenges…which will allow the SEIU to “find” some more votes for Manchin.

  • cactusjack

    Remember they broadcast from Manhattan. Surrounded by blue institutions, districts, precincts, and for hundreds of miles in virtually all directions. They literally have not seen very many TeaPartiers, they (we) might as well be exotic jaguars in the jungle recently reported seen in a closer part of the jungle. Occasionally one (a Tea Party person) comes in to interview with Beck, or they have seen pictures of 8-28. Has O’Reilly ever met Catherine Englebrecht, for example , and if he did even for a friendly interview, would he “get” that right now she is more powerful than he? Other than that, FOx is pretty much in an imprisoned, RINO construct for their view of the political scene. Not saying they’re RINOs (and not saying they’re not), but strangely, being in Manhattan the media “center” of everything, they’re rather isolated from this groundswell, grassroots movement. I have been noticing the disconnect for awhile now.

  • zipbags

    I have been reading how Manchin has taken the lead in the race for senate there. Yes, I understand he has been distancing himself from Obama and his policies and it is a blue state. But, Obama has a very low approval rating. I just don’t understand how those Dems/Indep still will vote for him. Even if Manchin votes against 95% of Obamas agenda, which won’t happen. Since once these guys get to Wash…they get arm-twisted into towing the line. And more importantly…Manchin will have a “D” after his name. And unless he plans on caucuses with the Repubs (not going to happen). The Dems could control the senate and thus Obama’s policies will go through.

  • Sundayjack

    I don’t even need to look at a poll to tell you that Jim McGovern’s in a race. Scott Brown won every town in his district except Worcester, and he only lost Worcester by 2000 votes. This with a special election turnout that was nearly identical to the mid-term turnout of 2006. At least Barney Frank in the 4th district has the comfort of the limousine-liberal belt west of Boston and the large ethnic southcoast towns. McGovern doesn’t have that sort of safe haven. He’s in a blue collar district that went BIG for Scott Brown and, as the final kicker, elected on of Massachusetts last GOP reps.

  • treeofliberty

    Latest poll has a 1 point spread between Cravaack and Oberdummy, judging by the intensity of the Cravaack supporters during their debates I would not want to be an incumbent Democrat under 50% in a “toss up” race heading into election day…

    this would be a sweet W guys!

  • lukematthews

    Distrust. They don’t believe Repubs have real reform or real solutions, just political differences. The lifelong Dems in WV are not sure Raese would really represent them. Manchin is trying to hoodwink them into believing he’s just ‘one of the guys’ against Obama. He won’t be, but the WV voters are falling for his nonsense. However, election day may be the great equalizer, especially if the Dems stay home out of disgust and we all show up and vote.