Which is not bad for a political prognosticator, actually. Charlie Cook is arguing in his latest column that the President must be hoping that one or more of the following things happen:
- Unemployment goes down;
- We not lose the war in Afghanistan; and/or
- THAT WOMAN gets the Presidential nomination.
…if the President wants to be reelected. First off: amazing what two years of institutionalized blithering incompetence will do to a man’s public perception, isn’t it? Seriously, Barack Obama should have taken four years off to go be Governor of Illinois, or something: because he’s got pretty much none of the life skills that we expect from chief executives these days. Second: let’s look at Charlie’s points, more or less out of order.
First off, let’s remove one of these conditions right off of the bat: I’d rather lose an election than have the USA lose a war, and so would most of the rest of you. On this President Obama’s primary problem is with his own antiwar supporters, who are just starting to dimly realize that not only are they not getting what they want; they are expected to enthusiastically want what the President tells them to want. In other words: as long as Afghanistan continues to look more or less sustainable, the President’s major criticisms about national security will come from the Angry Left. Annoying to him, but tolerable.
As to the economy: Charlie wrote this article back before the new job numbers came out, so he was as surprised by the job numbers as anybody else. Folks were hoping for 150K new jobs and a lowered unemployment rate to 9.5*; instead, we got only 39K new jobs and a higher unemployment rate of 9.8% (which isn’t all bad; it reflects more people hoping that they can find work). As it stands, it’s going to stay that at that rate for a long time, or at least until this administration takes job creation more seriously than it does, say, suppressing high school bake sales. Obviously, the GOP will do what it can to get the unemployment rate down, but until the Democrats are ready to see reason about the fundamental flaws in their economic model there’s an upper limit on how much we can do without control of the Senate and the White House. I’ll tell you the truth: keeping Nancy Pelosi in a leadership position tells me that the Democrats are going to continue to govern in a non-serious manner, and that’s just too bad. For the country, the unemployment rate – and the Democrats.
And that leads us to point three. Charlie’s been beating the “Sarah Palin can’t win” drum for a while, presumably because of her poor polling among independents. And he might be right, and he might be wrong. Certainly she’d lose the election today, for precisely that reason. And just as certainly, the election is not today. But what should be noted here is that if we still have our current unemployment rate in 2012 (or, God forbid, we’ve lost the war) then the President is going to go down in flames regardless of who the Republican nominee is. Particularly if the Republican nominee can campaign with a happy smile and easy demeanor, which has been notably lacking in this administration thus far. Those qualities in a politician go far in hard times.
Just ask Jimmy Carter. Or George HW Bush.
Moe Lane (crosspost)
*And if it had happened… ‘Huzzah?’
Moe Lane
Dan Spencer
Dan McLaughlin
Jeff Emanuel
You are correct, Moe.
Loren Heal (Diary) Saturday, December 4th at 4:13PM EDT (link)Which is sort of like congratulating gravity, but I still have to say it.
If the unemployment rate is above 9%, or if Afghanistan is run by the Taliban, a bag of oranges with an R next to its name will be able to beat Obama.
But for the sake of the country, I hope we do not nominate one again.
–
Join the Concord Project, and follow @lheal, if you dare.
As long as by "bag of oranges" you don't mean Charlie Crist ...
acat (Diary) Saturday, December 4th at 5:12PM EDT (link)I think I agree with you. Charlie I’d give a 1 in 5 against Obama at best….
If Palin can execute a pivot from “pit bull with lipstick” laser-focused on getting conservatives elected (which was so 2010…) to, paraphrasing a little, “relaxed, confident, smiling pit bull with lipstick” having succeeded in repositioning and reaching out to independents… (and early examples include her “Alaska” show, and Bristol’s “Dancing with the Stars” turn…) she’d destroy Obama.
Mew
——
Caveat Suffragator
no that's a bag of something else
kyle8 (Diary) Saturday, December 4th at 5:52PM EDT (link)or a sack
“Nothing works like freedom, Nothing succeeds like liberty”
Kyle
On behalf of the oranges I object to them being compared to the last nominee, that is just wrong. (nt)
Mike Ferguson (Diary) Sunday, December 5th at 1:20AM EDT (link)Let us be sure that those who come after will say of us in our time, that in our time we did everything that could be done. We finished the race; we kept them free; we kept the faith.
Ronald Reagan
Didn't Harry Reid win?
walter_hanson Saturday, December 4th at 8:59PM EDT (link)Polling data through all of 2010 was that Harry Reid wasn’t going to win. Yet he did even though more than half of the voters didn’t like Harry.
In 2012 the key is do you want a President who will sign the law that will repeal Obamacare. I think there are 50% plus of the voters who will understand that if you vote for Sarah Palin you’ll get that. Obama will have to give them a reason which if health care is a mess will cause people not to want to vote for Sarah or whoever the Republican is.
Walter Hanson
Minneapolis, MN
Yes, but...
merryj1 Sunday, December 5th at 2:08AM EDT (link)Does anyone know whether there was a skunk in that wood-pile? An unknown number of Nevada voting machines had a strange electronic glitch that inserted “Harry Reid” in place of the name of the voted-for other candidate, to an unknown number of voters (a small number of the voters noticed the “error,” but it’s also unknown whether the “error” was corrected in even those cases). It’s also apparently unknown whether the affected machines were only the ones maintained by SEIU troops, or the “glitch” was engineered at some central location.
My point is that if we don’t clean up the voting fraud problem, and it certainly isn’t limited to Nevada, polls or voter preferences will have little or no relationship to election outcomes.
They can only steal if it's close ...
acat (Diary) Monday, December 6th at 11:14AM EDT (link)And it was close, and that’s not about fraud… it’s about recruiting early enough to find really great candidates, and to do a proper job vetting.
Mew
——
Caveat Suffragator
Wrong line of argument!
sundesy Sunday, December 5th at 1:55PM EDT (link)I can never understand the defensive argument on Palin. There is no need for “HOPE”, we have “two years of institutionalized blithering incompetence” starring at us. As Ted Nugent articulates here
http://bighollywood.breitbart.com/jjmnolte/2010/12/03/ted-nugent-davy-crockett-daniel-boone-and-sarah-palin-they-are-my-heroes/
you can safely put the current administration in the bucket of OXYGEN THIEVES.
Sarah Palin is diametrically opposite to Obama, she loves her country, thinks America first, has rich life experience, proven executive experience, common sense, learned from historical experiences and a leader. Comes from the right side of the political pursuasion.
Last but not the least she has cajones.
And my left toe
PowerToThePeople (Diary) Sunday, December 5th at 5:16PM EDT (link)is diametrically opposite to Obama, loves its country, thinks America first, has rich life experience, proven executive experience, common sense, learned from historical experiences and a leader. Comes from the right side of the political pursuasion.
Last but not the least it has cajones.
Now quit with the rhetoric and show us proof of what you claim.
She is a great motivator, I believe she is a great conservative, I believe she would do a hell of a job running the RNC, and I think a few years from now she would be a possible QUALIFIED candidate, but I also believe that the constant messiah calls from certain sides are ridiculous. Nothing in her past backs up the claims you have made except the fact she is against all that is Obama.
I am not against Palin, nor am I against her because she is a woman. What I am against is the constant calls that she is the greatest thing since the wheel with a “proven record” when it just is not true. She may be the best out of all the run this time, but that is not due to her or her record nor is it something we should be proud about, it is because we were too stupid as a party to put up a champion just like in 08.
Those who love her and idolize her, fine. But stop with claims that are not true. Just state she is the one you want and she is better to you than sliced bread and we will be OK. It is the constant calls that she has done so much when she has really done so little that have become ridiculous. She needs to spend a few years proving herself in a role where she has to eat lead shot at her from all sides, she needs to prove she will not cut and run like she did in Alaska, she needs to get some more executive experience such as running the RNC, but most importantly, she needs to spend the time getting her own state to like her again and independents to like her as well or we will have a hell of a time winning the presidential election if she is the nominee. Plus the fact if she runs and is no longer the power behind the many candidates, that will cost us as well. DeMint is becoming a big named promoter, but he is nowhere near the power she is.
But all this is mute till she announces she is running and so far, she has not even formed an exploratory committee yet.
We need to remember that Obama came from the app same position as her. Small differences, but still very unqualified to be president. We all have seen what that has brought us. Granted, she would make a better president than Obama as would nearly any republican. But we should not be thinking, stating, or settling for just better, we need to put someone in who will be a solid rock with solid conservative principles who will sweep the stupidity out and put this country on the right path. And to have a person like that, we need someone who “at least she would be better than Obama” is much more qualified and is much better.
Palin Vs Obama
sundesy Sunday, December 5th at 6:11PM EDT (link)“Nothing in her past backs up the claims you have made except the fact she is against all that is Obama.”
For starters what is wrong with that. Unless you agree with.
1.Going around the world profusely apologizing on behalf of America
2.Running up a huge deficit and saddling the next few generations with a heavy debt burden
3.Driving down the dollar to nothing
4.Expand the government to the point and suffocate free market to the point of no return
5.Punish the productive class and create a permanent dependent class
“proven record” – Certainly way better than Obama’s. Now in the past two years he has gone from blank white paper resume to negative resume by demonstrating his incompetence in handling economic and foreign policies, lack of leadership, basic lack of ability to learn from experiences.
Palin’s resume any day stacks better than Obama’s, city mayor, city administrator, State governor and Chairperson of Oil commission. Her policies are sound. In the last two years she made herself transparent and freely subjected herself to scrutiny. Entire MSM shielded Obama and projected something that he cannot even dream of.
“Independents” – It is time to pick,
1.More than 200 hundred years of historical experience that says freedom, liberty, constitutional form of government, limited government, free market capitalism, traditional values (love of land, family) brings prosperity and well being
2.Mushy liberal drivel leading to misery
“We need to remember that Obama came from the app same position as her”
What are you talking? Has Obama ever held a real job? Has he ever had to balance multiple things in his life? Has he ever been accountable to anything? Even now as the President he does not seem to take any responsibility. After two years he is still blaming Bush, obfuscated healthcare reform to Nancy.
Today we do not need savvy double talking politician. We need a strong leader with sound values. Sarah Palin has amply demonstrated that.
What is it you do not understand
PowerToThePeople (Diary) Sunday, December 5th at 6:34PM EDT (link)is it the part we are not here to argue how bad Obama is as we all already know that or the part where you post proof to your claims she is so qualified?
And what part of we do not want just better than Obama, we want a strong proven leader do you not understand.
All that writing and you stated nothing…………..
Show us her proven track record, not a list of jobs. Having a bunch of title jobs does not mean qualified. You know it and we know it.
Sophistry
sundesy Sunday, December 5th at 7:25PM EDT (link)I understand and see your Sophistry. While dismissing vital factors and latching to one factor with arbitrary definition.
To me Obama is the nominee for the democrats. As noted somewhere else a sack of orange bag is better than Obama.
In comparing the GOP candidates, why the double standard in scrutinizing Palin’s record? She has the credentials that surpasses many potential GOP candidates. I do not see anybody nitpicking others and dismissing their viability. Let them fight it out and people will make decision. Why diminish Palin?
Qualifications for the President are multiple, some more important than the other. To me for presidency soft skills are more important than the hard skills. She has hard skills as demonstrated in her past positions. Now she has written two books for the world to see for themselves.
Some GOP candidates with seemingly good experiences have disqualified them selves in my mind. I like them but I do not trust Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlanty and Chris Christie due to their political pedigree. Mitt may have the best experience may be a good VP for Palin.
I do not want any past congressman for the presidency. They are not leaders. Also, do not want past losers. That puts Palin in the lead for GOP.
No past experience sufficiently prepares for the Presidency. Time honored values are more important than any skill. Palin has that.
And another clever one
PowerToThePeople (Diary) Monday, December 6th at 1:48AM EDT (link)Maybe before I use the pot calling the kettle line, you should revisit the nonsense you typed such as “in comparing the GOP candidates, why the double standard in scrutinizing Palin’s record? She has the credentials that surpasses many potential GOP candidates. I do not see anybody nitpicking others and dismissing their viability. Let them fight it out and people will make decision. Why diminish Palin?”
I am pretty sure I have not glossed over any other candidate to date, never have set a double standard unless you call me saying the only other two that people will say run,Romney and Huck, are useless and need to be defeated ASAP, a double standard. Pretty sure many of us have made it clear we like Palin, believe she has a very valid and important role in the party, and even have stated down the road we may even be supporters of hers where with the other two bums we express our never ending dislike.
And really if you want to get technical, none have announced, so there are no candidates. But back to the comment I copied, we are supposed to vet the candidates including Palin. And why is it her supporters will sing her praises but when we call attention to our concerns, you all start getting so defensive. It seems you all want to raise her up and want to stop anyone from stating things they do not like or are concerned about her.
“I do not want any past congressman for the presidency. They are not leaders. Also, do not want past losers. That puts Palin in the lead for GOP.” Come on, this is yet another fine example of the pot and kettle thing. I will simply say one name, DeMint. And he did not quit two years after being elected because of the heat, which by the way, he is taking plenty of right now even from his own party. And she is in the lead for what? She has not declared yet, and if we are going to simply put out names of anyone to be in the lead, I will again simply say one name, DeMint, and he did not quit after two years due to a little heat. And Palin was on the 08 ticket making her a past loser, right? Or are you going to reword that and claim it only applies to the presidential candidate?
Side note, worship usually occurs on Sunday. Since tomorrow is Monday, lets get back to other things. OK?
You have to look at it this way
PowerToThePeople (Diary) Sunday, December 5th at 6:40PM EDT (link)I think one of the biggest rising stars to hit this country is Rubio from Florida. I believe if he stays true to his convictions we may finally have a second Jim DeMint or even better. I think he will be a thorn in the side of the democrats for years
He was City Commissioner for West Miami for years as well as being a Florida House of reps member. He was even speaker. He wrote a book and so on yet almost everyone here, myself included would state it is too early to want him to run and he is too inexperienced. Yet he has more years in public service than Palin and has never quit an elected position due to pressure.
Some of you who have called for Palin have agreed Rubio is not ready. Either it is hypocrisy or blind zeal, either way reality needs to set in before it is too late.
As accomplished as your left toe is, I can see why
Tbone (Diary) Sunday, December 5th at 6:21PM EDT (link)you keep it well protected by having it firmly inserted in your ………..sock.
Small difference between she and Obama. You are ignorance personified.
Envisioning when all that is Left is the Right.
And you
PowerToThePeople (Diary) Sunday, December 5th at 6:30PM EDT (link)are a pathetic one line writer who tries to act the part of a man hidden behind a computer. You would not know testicular fortitude if it hit you between your eyes. Now back to those who can actually process more than on line of though at a time.
One line is usually plenty to point out silly thinking
Tbone (Diary) Sunday, December 5th at 11:58PM EDT (link)and lightweight logic. It allows me to leave the heavy lifting of appearing stupid to you.
Envisioning when all that is Left is the Right.
And again
PowerToThePeople (Diary) Monday, December 6th at 1:31AM EDT (link)small mind, only a man in internet land, and a wishful cleverness produces yet another stunning nothing. I am sure you have come to love the joke status you have obtained here due to your “clever” one liners (oh an please do use the tired line about length of membership so we can put that one to rest), but try to be a man and at least put together enough cognitive thought so that I at least feel a little bit slighted.
Tell me, do people in coward land such as yourself actually believe that others actually get offended at such nonsense that you continue to drool? Would a quick feigned display of hurt help your inflated ego?
If so, I would be more than happy to provide the occasional “Oh why would he say such mean things to me” for you so that you feel a little more like an intellectual man. Let me know……
Set aside for the moment that Palin makes you feel inadequate
Tbone (Diary) Monday, December 6th at 10:13AM EDT (link)and answer this question: If she is the nominee, will you vote for her?
Envisioning when all that is Left is the Right.
Well first since you seem to need it
PowerToThePeople (Diary) Monday, December 6th at 11:59AM EDT (link)“Oh why would you say such mean things!” Hope that helps your ego out as I am sure it needs all the help it can get.
And second, I always support all republicans in the General regardless of who they are. But you are dealing in the hypothetical since she has not announced she is running much less won yet. So lets stick to reality and you can continue with the worship and the rest of us will continue to look at all the possible candidates and continue to bring up what we like and what we do not like. We do not have time for hero worship, our country was too screwed by another winner due to hero worship.
You assume that I favor Palin for President
Tbone (Diary) Monday, December 6th at 2:07PM EDT (link)just because I point out PDS in others. I don’t.
But, I am glad you will support her in the general.
PS. Thanks for the snit. It frames you perfectly.
Envisioning when all that is Left is the Right.
Snit?
PowerToThePeople (Diary) Monday, December 6th at 3:38PM EDT (link)You really have a limited knowledge of the definitions of the words you use. See in order for me to have a snit, I would have to give a rats ass about your opinion or the nonsense you spew across this blog. If you think you can cause me to have a snit and it helps your pride, please believe it to be so. But it would take a person of a much higher intellect and a much broader vocabulary to cause me to go into a snit.
But by all means, I love for people to be happy and have their egos as inflated as possible so please continue to use me as your point of interest for your “brilliant” one liners and comedic use of words.
Now how is that for a snit. But please,continue your dictionary search for new words to use on here as I await the next addition with eager anticipation. Try to use it in a proper way though, sort of diminishes your effort when you use it out of context or improperly.
OK, so perhaps hissy would be more appropriate.
Tbone (Diary) Monday, December 6th at 3:57PM EDT (link)It must be that XY thingy.
And thank you for the happiness and joy which you have so generously bestowed upon me.
Do you have any early personal favorites in the upcoming nomination derby besides Demint, who I also personally admire but realize has absolutely no chance of winning the nomination?
Envisioning when all that is Left is the Right.
I have no clue at this point
PowerToThePeople (Diary) Monday, December 6th at 4:13PM EDT (link)and speculating does nothing. I would think some good ones will come up for our nomination, but after the McCain fiasco last time, I am not holding my breath.
My only point is that people continue to throw out names and get defensive when the person and their qualifications are challenged. No one has announced a run yet, so until they do, we are simply shooting the breeze at this point.
My belief is this, republicans are the best at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. We are also notorious at taking our opponents lightly. People on our side across the board have already started stating that it does not matter who runs against Obama, we will win. It will not be that easy. We have to stick up someone who is conservative fiscally, has not alienated independents and our moderates, has a strong proven track record, and has the courage and endurance to withstand all that is sure to come from the left.
Anything less and we will have 4 more of Obama. Independents may want Obama gone, but if we put up a loser, they will simply vote Obama and justify that vote by giving total power to the repubs in the Congress. They will think that by doing that, Obama will be put in his place, but instead we get a lame duck 4 years.
So to answer your question, I have no favorites at this time. I simply hope that some conservatives get in the race and keep Romney and others like him from winning.
Well said. Palin shoots a caribou on TV and says stuff like this:
Tbone (Diary) Monday, December 6th at 8:35PM EDT (link)“Unless you’ve never worn leather shoes, sat upon a leather couch or eaten a piece of meat, save your condemnation of tonight’s episode,” she wrote. “I remain proudly intolerant of anti-hunting hypocrisy.”
Being willing to offend those who deserve it is a trait I admire in her.
Envisioning when all that is Left is the Right.
I like Palin
PowerToThePeople (Diary) Monday, December 6th at 11:47PM EDT (link)and a multitude of aspects about her. I think she would make the best RNC head in the last 20 plus years. I think hands down she is the best fundraiser and motivator our party has. I believe she is conservative and will stay conservative. I even think she has guts, but
She did not do a good job as gov in Alaska and she cut and run. Along with these two drawbacks, she has alienated almost 2 out of 3 moderate to republican leaning independents. Without them we do not win no matter who is the nominee. That being said, I think she will be president one day and would make a good one. But she has to take a job right now that allows the mass amount of independents to come around to her side and to show that this time she is prepared to have barbs thrown out her from all sides and stay in the battle. Then she will be ready to take the presidential office. It may even be a thing where she should push for an appointed position in the new administration so she can show everyone who she is now.
Either way, I would vote for her in the general now, primary down the road maybe(is she takes the steps to prove herself as more than a fundraiser).
And I do like the show and would love to be up there hunting.
Profound
sundesy Sunday, December 5th at 6:30PM EDT (link)Wow that was a profound argument. You must be a PHD on watching “THE VIEW”
to think I only had to wait 5 years for you to show up
Tbone (Diary) Sunday, December 5th at 11:54PM EDT (link)and put me in my place. LOL. Run upstairs and see if momma made you some cookies.
Envisioning when all that is Left is the Right.
And exactly none of those things would be
mbecker908 (Diary) Sunday, December 5th at 5:20PM EDT (link)any indication that she can actually get anything accomplished working with the legislative branch.
Working with legislation
sundesy Sunday, December 5th at 6:49PM EDT (link)Let us look at Obama’s record first.
1) But for the overwhelming majority at the house and Senate Obama cold not get one republican to support his agenda. You cannot blame the republicans for not supporting his radical agenda. You want proof since Obama’s election democrats lost every election including MA and NJ. So people left, right and center do not like his policies.
2) As a Senator has Obama sponsored any major legislation/ NO
On policy matters he is not even willing to stand a position. His response is “It is above my pay grade”.
Her experience may not be extensive. But again how much is enough? Biden has been a Senator for a long time from a state that has a population less than some of the shopping mall on a black Friday. But I would not want his experience, that wold be a wrong king of experience.
For executives leadership, values, integrity, passion are more important. The details can be handled by the staff.
For one thing she has been scrutinized and I seem to know about her more than myself.
Obama's Presidency is one mighty low bar to trip over
aesthete (Diary) Monday, December 6th at 11:00AM EDT (link)Virtually any Republican candidate who runs against him would be qualitatively better than Obama on every metric, so that’s a meaningless comparison (ditto for Biden).
A common argument that gets tossed around by Palin supporters is that she has been vetted and “scrutinized” by the media. That is untrue: endlessly mocking a person and his or her family on perceived personal, cultural, and religious idiosyncrasies is altogether different from soberly examining the record and effects of legislation proposed by a governor. The media has indulged in the former, not the latter quality (and that should come as no surprise to conservative familiar with the leftist tendency to politicize the personal, and with the media’s vapidity).
Palin is admirable as a person, appears to be conservative, and is excellent as a fundraiser: I hope she continues to use her fundraising and stump speaking talents to do well for herself and the conservative movement. Absolutely none of that prepares one for the Presidency, and Palin’s short stint as governor in AK was a failure by conservative standards (higher taxes, redistributionary schemes, and massively increased budgets are not conservative, despite what Frmr Pres Bush’s term may have led you to believe). Quality, conservative rhetoric is a poor substitute for quality, conservative results. Palin’s record has far too much of the former, and far too little of the latter.
“It is a popular delusion that the government wastes vast amounts of money through inefficiency and sloth. Enormous effort and elaborate planning are required to waste this much money.”
-P.J. O’Rourke
Fair enough
sundesy Monday, December 6th at 2:02PM EDT (link)Like I said qualification for the presidency is muli-dimensional. When evaluating candidates it is comparative. Each candidate has strengths and weaknesses. I only object to selective focus on Palin. She and I support open competitive primaries. Let them fight it out. It is disingenuous to handicap one candidate on one’s narrowly perceived qualification factor.
Way too early to think about our nominee
Adjoran (Diary) Sunday, December 5th at 4:43PM EDT (link)The idea of an early-year debate, even at the Reagan Library, was an awful one. I don’t even like the Ames BS in August, I wish all the potentials were ready to skip it.
Palin has work to do with independents, but so does Obama. Reagan didn’t start out as their darling, either, remember.
Obama’s strong anti-business and pro-union policies, the awful policies like health care he’s already imposed, and the looming cloud of socialist regulatory dictatorship designed to avoid accountability to Congress all point to continued economic difficulties for the next couple of years.
The only President reelected in a bad economy was FDR. Obama is no FDR.