Old And Busted: Donald Trump Wins On First Ballot. New Hotness: A Scorched Earth Convention
There is no reason why the GOP should allow Donald Trump to have the nomination no matter how many delegates he shows up with.Read More »
You may have heard that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has modified its survey of unemployment. There is probably going to be a good deal of confusion over what’s being changed, so let me summarize the situation.
So the real story here is not that the BLS is on the verge of reporting that the unemployment numbers are going to go through the roof. They’re not, and that’s because of a conscious and continuing decision by the government to use the U-3 numbers (9.8%) instead of the U-6 ones (17%) (permalink): there’s no point in fudging the unemployment numbers downward with one hand while raising them with the other[*]. No, the real story is that the BLS is quietly worrying that the long-term prospects for reducing unemployment are looking pretty grim.
Moe Lane (crosspost)
[*To clarify, because this came up in comments: this was only meant to implicitly push back against the notion that the government was trying to game the system by changing the criteria for the length-out-of-work question. They’re already (in my opinion) gaming the system the other way by using U-3 numbers to reflect ‘official’ unemployment when they should be using the U-6 ones.]