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The Morning After Wisconsin.

By: Moe Lane (Diary)  |  April 6th, 2011 at 08:00 AM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Well.  It’s barely Prosser, and we’re off to the recount.  You’re going to see the phrase  ‘margin of fraud’ a lot this morning; while this is a valid concern, the bright side to that is that with a Republican governor AND Republican legislature – neither of which is particularly inclined to be trusting – Wisconsin Democrats will find it harder to play the same games that their compatriots may-or-may-not-have-played in either Washington State or Minnesota.  Seriously, having Republicans in charge of the oversight hearings will be a big help in keeping down shenanigans; we had neither in the Rossi / Coleman affairs, and in my opinion it had an effect.

Even brighter side?  Maybe Secretary of State Doug La Follette* will muck up things enough to justify a recall election.  Retiring that particular well-meaning political dynasty from the American political scene would frankly be a mitzvah.

Moe Lane (crosspost)

PS: I’m sure that the labor unions are even now declaring moral victory and hoping for an actual one.  Let me note this real quick: the goal wasn’t for them to win, precisely.  The goal was to make us afraid of their power.  It didn’t quite work.

*This is why you don’t neglect the state-level elections, by the way.  And why you default to voting a straight party ticket.

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COMMENTS

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  • stigmo

    We’ve got reports here that the margin is down to 26. Scary.

    I’ve got a friend who called me to ask if he and his wife should vote–and if so for whom…glad I told him “YES. PROSSER. NOW!”

  • jackhammer

    and the whole “last chance to stop Walker” rhetoric could only bring a less than 6point statewide swing? Irrespective of what happens in this race (and I hope Prosser pulls it out) it must be making the DNC already paint Wisconsin dark red for 2012…..

  • edintexas

    You did the right thing and, given his apparent circumstances, so did your friend who called the right person.

  • edintexas

    Now THAT would truly be a mitzvah.

  • Duke

    Supreme Court REPORTING 99%
    David Prosser (inc) 736,878
    Joanne Kloppenburg 736,043

    Prosser by 835 votes

    You should be able to check the latest numbers at this link:

    http://elections.620wtmj.com/G8801.htm

  • proudgop

    Where link on this

    I just checked AP and they updated Milwaukee numbers in only 2 precints left now out of 14 before

    Prosser is up 835 votes

    1 Dane
    2 Milwaukee
    6 Ashland
    2 Crawford
    2 Dunn
    1 Jefferson
    8 Sauk

  • edintexas

    I have to add a qualifier to that. There are a few Repubs against whom I vote for the Libertarian as the Conservative in the race. The Libertarian will ally with the Republicans and, being a Conservative, is a far better choice than the RINO. Think of a hypothetical Rand Paul vs. Lindsey Graham ballot. Do you vote a party line straight ticket, or do you choose who gets your vote for each race? I intend that to be a hypothetical question.

  • Change Jar Conservative

    we vote Conservative in the primary and Republican in the general.

    It’s pretty much a rule …

  • Change Jar Conservative

    is the Democratic SOS and the SOS sets a lot of the rules during these things.

    Also, we now have a split (without prosser) Wisconsin Supreme Court.

    Have I mentioned that I think that hand counts should be illegal.

  • Change Jar Conservative

    is the Democratic SOS and the SOS sets a lot of the rules during these things.

    Also, we now have a split (without prosser) Wisconsin Supreme Court.

    Have I mentioned that I think that hand counts should be illegal.

  • jackhammer

    but reading any lefty sites, you would think the whole dems fleeing to illinois thing, and the thugs in the statehouse thing was their fukushima moment, a 9.0 earthquake followed by a tsunami….And somehow I always think the protest vote comes out stronger than the “defending the status quo” vote when those sorts of things happen.

    So for the left this seemed like the bakesale to save save the theater deepartment at the end of some disney movie moment, and they were super jazzed to show that this ain’t what the people of wisconsin want…..the turnout seems OK (I think a million and a half for a tuesday in april in an odd year seems a lot), but even with all that fervor, they can’t sweep it….

    now compare that to the turn between 2008 presidential and 2010 governor for WI, and now project it to 2012, where people will be happy that there is no collective bargaining, and they still will be wanting to get Barry O out….and I see us making taking it in a walk….

  • edintexas

    In the running for best part of the day – so far. :-)

  • willopine

    This link shows what precicts are left to count.Notice the counties that are heavy for Klopp. held a few back . Maybe leave some precincts uncounted until you know how many votes are needed?
    http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2011/by_county/WI_Supreme_Court_0405.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

  • mkozikowski

    we see the “Magical Lost Ballot Box” show up?

    You know it’s coming. It always does when the Left loses a narrow vote.

  • http://moelane.com/ Moe Lane

    Obviously, a David Duke-type is unacceptable; thankfully, they’re rare, but they’re less rare the lower down the ballot you go. I do recognize that there are… quirks… in the party system at the state and county level, IOW: circumstances alter cases.

    Still, it’s a good default rule.

  • edintexas

    on a website. Thousands do it every day for the most inconsequential things. It might be just as well that they don’t stir themselves on that Tuesday in November.

    Seriously, you aren’t trying to tell me that a Conservative, running on the Libertarian ticket (if you have such where you live) would not attract your vote against a RINO like Lindsey Graham? IF that is the case, it is no wonder RINOs keep getting re-elected in some states.

  • carolina

    And I bet WI is ‘bright red”.
    I’m just glad that this result should take some of the wind out of the pro public union sails.
    OH and MI are done deals, as was IN 5 years ago. Meanwhile, maybe WI will go ahead and repass the CB legislation and get on with things.
    Fitzgerald will be on Fox at 10:45 AM.

  • jackhammer

    Where any car where anyone involved in the counting of ballots is involved, has to drive their car onto and off the lot with the trunk open? I think that would cover about 80% of the claims I have heard in the past about where these things were found….

  • momofthecastle

    n/t

  • jackhammer

    I mean how tough is it to make sure no one is bringing magical UPS deliveries into the uncounted districts….

  • edintexas

    When I go to the local Baptist Church (our precinct polling place – it IS Texas after all), I go with a list of those I will vote for. I’ve spent a fair amount of time checking on candidates and I know who will get my vote. Of course, this being Texas (and not Moscow on the Guadalupe [Austin], Dallas, San Antonio or Houston), Primaries are more work than the General in that I am trying to select the MOST Conservative candidate and not voting for the only Conservative. I COULD vote a straight ticket in the General, but it just goes against my nature (contrarian, or curmudgeon, you pick), I don’t want any party confident of my vote. Thankfully, I’m in Jeb Hensarling’s Congressional district and voting for Jeb has been a no-brainer.

  • stigmo

    Sure, fraud is a problem. But it’s nowhere near the problem of tens of thousands of out-of-state students voting in WI elections.

  • http://moelane.com/ Moe Lane

    And the price of participation in a primary is the tacit understanding that you agree to abide by its results, even when you don’t like it. I don’t expect a non-Republican to care about my party’s primaries, of course; but I very do much expect fellow-Republicans to. If they can’t do that, they need to stay out of the process in the first place.

    So, to answer your question: yes, Republican in the general election unless at the direst need. If the Conservative spoiler wants my vote in November, have him or her win my party’s primary.

  • http://moelane.com/ Moe Lane

    …obviously. A man has a right to vote as he pleases. But there’s a reason why we keep political parties around, despite the fact that the Founders mostly hated them with an holy passion: they’re the best way to get things done in politics.

    And this conflict between idealism and pragmatism will exist long after we all are dead. :)

  • Change Jar Conservative

    AP has Prosser up 830 votes.

    My back of the envelope math on what is out would add a net of 810 to the Democrat … whoa!

    Given the past elections, I think we are in trouble.

    If prosser were a Democrat, he’d vote in any SCOWI decisions for himself and be done with it.

  • oldgeezerguy

    It is going to almost be fun watching the contortions and such as the media and lefty apologists try to paint lipstick on this pig and declare a resounding win or something.

    If after weeks of protests and tons of money the best they can do is a photo finish you have to wonder where they will finish the next time this issue comes up in another state.

    It will all be about framing and twisting facts to try to convince somebody that an alternative reality will come to pass.

    Digging out the popcorn and my screen capture tools.

  • edintexas

    Require t he Poll Watchers (who are not supposed to touch ballots, or other official items, but are not supposed to be “non-partisan” either) to check those trunks on entry and exit – and keep those vehicles in a location separated from general public access. It would be hard to do the separation, but necessary to ensure no “ballot boxes” were surreptitiously placed in a vehicle during the day. Possibly constant video recorded surveillance would suffice in lieu of separation. Obviously the requirement would be for Poll watchers from both parties to be present. There will still be some polling places where threats cause Poll Watchers of one party to leave (gee, I wonder who would do that?).

  • bk

    I expect they’ll say that all the Koch money pouring in from out of state offset the tremendous grass roots support among the average workers in WI. They just didn’t have the endless supply of funds to fight the dirty campaign tricks of Koch/Prosser/Walker/Tea Party.

  • bk
  • edintexas

    The problem with taking the legislation up again and re-passing it is that it lends validity to the Judge’s action in interfering with the Legislature’s Constitutional duties. If the Legislature takes up an exact replacement bill, it confers an impression that the Judge could legally do what she did, forcing the Legislature to perform an act. That worked in MA on gay marriage, but Dems are suckers for Judicial activism and MA now has a precedent that the Legislature is subservient to the State Courts and must do their bidding in regard to being ordered to pass legislation. In WI it could set a precedent that the courts can stop the Legislature and the Executive from passing, enacting and implementing legislation. As it is, the Republicans have pretty much bent over backwards in allowing the Judge latitude for her orders which apparently lack any legal foundation. But she will be re-elected in Dane County, at least in part because of this.

  • Change Jar Conservative

    ****************
    While we wait, let’s remember that in the first round, on February 15, Prosser won 55 percent of the vote to 25 percent for Kloppenburg. A Prosser win is important, and locks up the Supreme Court for Republicans, but a win of the size this is likely to be is a big, yawning vote of no confidence in the state’s GOP. The bottom started to fall out of Prosser’s bid, and a Republican surge came in to help him, but that was $1.8 million no one had been planning to spend to retain a judge.

    ********************

    ME: I accept your surrender.

  • Change Jar Conservative

    ****************
    While we wait, let’s remember that in the first round, on February 15, Prosser won 55 percent of the vote to 25 percent for Kloppenburg. A Prosser win is important, and locks up the Supreme Court for Republicans, but a win of the size this is likely to be is a big, yawning vote of no confidence in the state’s GOP. The bottom started to fall out of Prosser’s bid, and a Republican surge came in to help him, but that was $1.8 million no one had been planning to spend to retain a judge.

    ********************

    ME: I accept your surrender.

  • ja_ak

    Projecting the precincts forward that have not reported (a/o 10 am EST) I see a net gain for Klopp of 1,222 votes versus the 835 vote lead Prosser currently has. That assumes the unreported precincts maintain the same voting patterns as seen in the rest of the county.

  • ja_ak

    Projecting the precincts forward that have not reported (a/o 10 am EST) I see a net gain for Klopp of 1,222 votes versus the 835 vote lead Prosser currently has. That assumes the unreported precincts maintain the same voting patterns as seen in the rest of the county.

  • edintexas

    I don’t know if the students would bother to get a WI DL, perhaps not. But it would be easy enough to get an in-state DL, or ID card (probably even easier as there would be no questions about already having a DL).

    We have the same problem in Austin, TX. While the student representation is being diluted with population growth of the area, it still is substantial (Austin 2010 – 790,390 [and not all eligible to vote], students at UT 51,233 enrolled in Fall, 2010 and all 18 and over). While the moniker has fallen from use with the fall of the Soviet Union, we call(ed) Austin “Moscow on the Guadalupe” for good reason.

  • IJB
  • congressworksforus

    I’ve harped on this elsewhere.

    Look at the Milwaukee County results and compare them to the 2010 election. Look also at the County Executive race.

    Now, ask yourself how many African Americans support lily-white union member’s “civil rights”.

    But they sure as heck vote heavily for Democrats in every other race.

  • tulsajack

    So if the Democrat hack is elected supreme court judge in Wisconsin, her ruling is a foregone conclusion. Judge of what? Not the law. Judicial restraint? Dems don’t need no stinkin’ law. “We’ll judge it however we like, Constitution be damned, because We Are the Law!” And to this half the voters of Wisconsin say, “Oh, alright, Smooth Talker!” What a bunch of ignorant peasants. These dupes will get what they ask for.

  • Brian_Roastbeef

    Does the Libertarian/Conservative have a real chance to win? If it is a case of a viable Doug Hoffmann to an abominable Dede Scuzzafava, then, I’ll definitely go for the third party.

    If voting for the Libertarian just pads his 2% a little, then no way. Better a Scott Brown than a Martha Coakley. I know there are some who see this otherwise, but so be it. IIRC, we left a few possible gains on the table in 2010 due to votes going to Libertarian candidates.

  • spainishirish

    Lest we forget, Bush likely carried Wisconsin in 2004. The narrow margin for Kerry likely was the result of fraud, and if Bush had not carried Ohio and won the RNC was ready to go full speed ahead into Wisconsin and open up that can of worms. As things turned out, it wasn’t necessary.

    Given the huge union and Democratic effort, last night’s results are no comfort for Obama. As a matter of fact, the Dems already may be resigned to the strong possibility that Wisconsin will flip from an Obama state to a Republican carry in 2012.

  • JimmyGee

    Have the ballots transferred by Brinks trucks (or the like) with a state trooper in the truck to a central facility within the county. Have additional state troopers at the central facility. Have the trooper certify the chain-of custody. Have video cameras monitoring and recording any counts, much like in Vegas casinos!
    Unfortunately Kluggenfart is going to win…all the counting that really matters, and any legal motions, are going to be done in the Peoples Republic of Madison and Dane County. Prosser needed to have a margin of at least 8%. The liberals are desperate.

  • Brian_Roastbeef

    AP just added in Ashland. That plus the Dunn vote total yet to be formally reported should leave Prosser leading by only 190 votes. Hang on…

  • paramedichess

    The lead is down to 419. We all know we NEVER win a close election. The other side is just too good at stealing them. They’ll count and recount and find however many votes they need.

  • JimmyGee

    The way I see it, Prosser will have to recuse himself. That leaves a 50/50 split. So both halves vote their party, split decision. What then?

  • Duke

    David Prosser (inc) 737,224

    Joanne Kloppenburg 736,805

    Prosser by 419

    Here’s a question: Why is it taking until the next morning for these precincts to get their election results reported to their County Clerk? I’m a municipal clerk and my results were printed out and reported by 10:00 last night!

  • carolina
  • proudgop

    All Ashland and Sauk in and we are down now

    we are down 140 votes

    1 in dane to count
    2 in Milwaukee

    7 precints spread around in other counties

  • Common_Cents

    Figure that one out.

  • chipbennett

    I think that’s a critical difference. The first opportunity for voters to express their intent – thanks to NY State’s moronic “primary”-by-party-committee system – is the general election.

    (Of course, the long-term answer is for the grassroots conservatives to take over the party, one precinct at a time, so that we have greater influence in primary candidates, and also have more control over such appointments-by-committee.)

  • congressworksforus

    If you take out the extraordinary turn out in Dane County (which, btw, is incredibly suspicious), there’s some really good news in regard to the upcoming recall votes. In those precincts the Dems came up way short of what they’d need to recall someone.

  • Brian_Roastbeef

    Kloppy’s lead just went from 369 votes to 447 with the same five wards left outstanding?

  • oneconservative

    Some of the precincts have been reporting. I am not sure of how many are left but is it is down to 3 to 5 precincts. Kloppenburg is up by about 350 votes.

    Lord knows how many votes the Libs have lied about as reports are in about them busing in crooks to vote.

    Here is the link.
    http://elections.620wtmj.com/G8801.htm

  • jackhammer

    with 5 precincts open and 309 votes down, is that Prosser loses by 305votes…0.02% of the vote

  • Finrod

    .

  • rightwingmom52

    left to report from Jefferson County which Prosser carried with 58% (12,860 votes). I pray there’s enough votes in that area to push him through.

  • mdredstater

    If that 58% holds up, Prosser wins the precinct by a little more than 2000 votes (7458 to 5402) , enough to overcome the 300 or so vote deficit statewide.

  • edintexas

    “And this conflict between idealism and pragmatism will exist long after we all are dead.”

    No doubt. I’m sure part of my position is the political atmosphere in Texas. We do not have party registration and we do have “open” primaries (how else could we have helped Hillary in the TX Dem primary last go round?).

    I like to think my position is both idealistic and realistic. I would vote for the most Conservative candidate, and in the general election that could (and has at the Constable level) be a Libertarian. The possibility of a Libertarian caucusing with the Democrats is slim and none, and Slim just left town. So the Libertarian would caucus with the Republicans, no net loss in votes for positions like Speaker. In our Constable’s race, the Libertarian won – and ran on the Republican ticket – and won – the next election). The primary elections, and most others, are now better promoted at the County and Precinct levels so people know when they occur, which has not always been the case. An exception would be school bond elections, which are treated at least as Top Secret when it comes to letting the public know about the election, wouldn’t want other voters overwhelming the School District employee, School Board and PTA vote.

  • ja_ak

    The difference right now (1:30 pm EST) has Klopp up 235. The one precinct left is in Jefferson county, and projecting forward means Prosser will make up about 90 of those votes – leaving 160 votes to Klopp. Bad news, but well within the “margin of fraud.” Historically, however, these close calls never go the right’s way.

  • The_Gadfly

    No way the government could afford the bill.

    The key is the poll watchers. If there are no poll watchers there’s nobody to see the shenanigans.

  • annas

    ..deserves what they get. What a lame state. I am sorry I sent money for this! Walker might as well leave the whole mess to the union bosses. Let the “folks” up there enjoy. He can move to Texas!

  • rightwingmom52
  • http://xmmlbchat.blogspot.com katesmith

    According to John Fund yesterday. I understand it would take a lot of time to check all the registrations, but there have to be more than a few hundred fakes.

  • melbedewy

    All the “recall” districts voted Republican. The recalls may well result in a big goose egg for the unionists.

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

    Because I am convinced that after this appeal is settled, the next one will find a local judge that will rule the law unconstitutional or re-define “fiscal” and strike it down on substantive grounds. It could be a time matter. But I am not wedded to any particular strategy. see here:

    http://www.redstate.com/gamecock/2011/04/06/the-tempting-of-the-rule-of-law-in-wisconsin/

  • http://www.theprecinctproject.wordpress.com ColdWarrior

    1,129,000 Wisconsinites voted for Scott Walker. But only about 740,000 bothered to turn out to vote for Justice Prosser.

    Yes, there was probably massive fraud in Dane County, as John Fund has pointed out, due to the “vouching” process. Unbelievably, anyone, with absolutely no documentation, can register and vote on Election Day as long as someone from that precinct “vouches” that they just moved into the precinct. In Dane County, about 12,000 voters cast votes ONLY in the S. Ct. contest and not in the other contests on the ballot.

    Quick analysis of some county-specific numbers from the following three pages:

    Total voter registrations by county found here: http://gab.wi.gov/elections-voting/statistics (2010 spreadsheet with county totals)

    Total votes cast by counties for Nov. 2010 Governor race here: http://www.uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2010&f=0&off=5&elect=0&fips=55&submit=Retrieve

    Total votes cast by counties for S. Ct. race here: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2011/by_county/WI_Supreme_Court_0405.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

    Looked at two counties. Rural, sparsely-populated Buffalo County that was 53 per cent for Walker and “big city, suburban” Waukesha County that went heavily for Walker:

    Buffalo County had 8,466 registered votes in 2010 and 4,879 cast votes in the 2010 Gov. contest, for a 57.6 per cent turnout. But only 1,688 cast votes in the S. Ct. contest, for a 19.9 per cent turnout.

    Waukesha County, with 264,939 registered voters in 2010, had 188,278 voters cast votes in the Gov. race, for 71 per cent turnout. But, in the S. Ct. contest, only 110,547 cast votes, for a 41.7 per cent turnout.

    Half of the 3,191 who didn’t vote in Buffalo County, but did in the Gov. Race, would have been Prosser voters and would have made up the difference, and then some, putting him over the top, .

    About 70 per cent of the 77,831 who didn’t vote in Waukesha County, but did in the Gov. Race, would have been Prosser voters and would have crushed Kloppenburg.

    “They, the Republican voters of WI” (that is, “we the people”) had a big legislative victory to protect and failed miserably.

    I guess they just had something higher on their list of priorities.

    We conservatives get the government our apathy deserves.

    Dems da facts.

    Thank you.

    ColdWarrior

  • redinwash

    the budget problem in Texas.

    They’ve got a SERIOUS problem on their hands. And Rick Perry’s mostly to blame.

  • redinwash

    blaming Madison for these losses was a smart move. The numbers don’t support it and it surely doesn’t help him in that town either. Bad move.

  • msctex

    We go about things a bit differently here, in terms of when things are done. Don’t believe the things the Dems want you to believe.

  • redinwash

    “A budget shortfall as high as $27 billion is projected as lawmakers work through the 2011 legislative session, according to estimates from economists and the comptroller’s office.”

    From: http://www.texastribune.org/texas-taxes/2011-budget-shortfall/

    And:
    “A $10 billion budget shortfall will reappear in future legislative sessions again and again unless lawmakers better align how much money comes in and how much goes out, said John Heleman, chief revenue estimator for Comptroller Susan Combs. ”

    From: http://www.statesman.com/news/texas-politics/texas-budget-challenges-could-persist-beyond-2011-1223479.html

    SOOOO, yes, Texas’ budget problem is systemic, structural, and not likely to be fixed anytime soon.

  • slimmu

    but Prosser just imploded though, he won the primary with 55% and Kloppenburg only got 25% even with the negative media attention he still had a huge lead and blew it.

  • http://xmmlbchat.blogspot.com katesmith

    The Prosser Victory Fund. Reports of “missing” or destroyed ballots in a county that went heavily Prosser, one city Mequon in particular, “4/6/11, “Wisconsin city caught destroying ballots,” Pundit Press, Thomas Ferdousi . Mark Belling has requested records from Mequon. Belling is talk show host in Wisc. who sometimes fills in for Rush. John Fund said tonight there are stories suggesting fraud in several locations. Regarding costs and investigations for recount, John Fund says candidates have to pay them, not the government. He also said Kloppenberg said she is planning on moving into the Justice’s office.

  • Michael Dugas

    Why exactly are you here? Second you should read your own “evidence” , though some website for a weekly called the TexasTribune would have me double checking, you neither mention that Texas does a biannual budget and the yearly shortfall is 12 – 13 billion and no where does it “blame” Perry….it blames the shortfall…gasp…on the same national economic situation as every other state is dealing with “Declining sales tax receipts and the recession” and “Structural deficit” in the tax law where business taxes were used to cover a shortfall in property taxes due to cuts. It does not BLAME Perry but states he used this method to cover the shortfall.
    And that last line of your, “…not likely to be fixed anytime soon.” is all you.
    Texas has one of the strongest economies going right now. Unfortunately for Texas people are flocking there for what jobs are left. They also have something that a lot of other states whish they did, a rainy day fund with some money in it. Your shot at Texas AND Perry out of LEFT field.

  • msctex

    . . .I didn’t bother to try and answer. I should have vetted him first, as you did.

  • Michael Dugas

    n/t

  • redinwash

    When you say: “it blames the shortfall?gasp?on the same national economic situation as every other state is dealing with ?Declining sales tax receipts and the recession?

    Actually, the article states quite clearly:

    “Heleman, with some prompting from senators, said a “structural deficit” developed in the state budget after the 2006 school finance reform package that lowered local school property taxes and restructured the business tax.

    After the Texas Supreme Court found the state’s school finance system to be unconstitutional, the state increased its contribution to public education to the tune of $14 billion in each two-year budget.

    But the costs of that tax swap have been greater than expected, and the revenue sources meant to pay for it ? primarily the revised business tax ? have not covered the cost. The combined taxes will generate $4.5 billion in the 2012-13 biennium.”

    So the business tax thing didn’t work out huh? Surprise.

    “They also have something that a lot of other states whish they did, a rainy day fund with some money in it.”

    Not anymore.