…and the Law of Unintended Consequences: “Former President George W. Bush has declined an invitation to join President Barack Obama at a New York City ceremony later this week marking the death of al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden, NBC News reported on Tuesday.” The – ‘ostensible’ is too strong a word; ‘primary’ probably works better – reason is that former President Bush chooses to not emulate Jimmy Carter’s horrible example by insinuating himself into national affairs; but there’s certainly speculation as to what the secondary reasons are. Allahpundit’s suggestion that Bush desires to avoid what AP didn’t, but I will, call a Wellstone funeral-style campaign op makes a certain amount of sense. Then again, so does Instapundit’s commenter’s observation that perhaps Bush didn’t feel like being insulted to his face by President Obama, in much the same way that Obama went after Rep. Paul Ryan and the US Supreme Court in venues where they had to sit there and take the hits. I favor the latter as being the secondary reason.
And that’s where the Law of Unintended Consequences kicks in. It is actually very likely that President Obama has no intention of listening to the fools on his side who want to use the event for Bush-bashing, if only because it’s not the antiwar movement that the President needs to woo right now; even their protesters are committed to voting for him*. Obama needs independents and the disaffected portion of his 2008 vote, and those two demographics like seeing their Presidents take the high road. So you’d think that he’d take it, right?
But we don’t actually know that the President is going to be that smart (more accurately, that he’s going to be that not-dumb); tomorrow’s speech could possibly be yet another endless exercise in tedious sniping and dull hyper-partisanship. And if Obama isn’t going to be that smart, and Bush had gone… well. That would have been the last straw. I know that this is incomprehensible to many on the Left, but more people than the Left thinks still like George W. Bush – and watching him have to sit there silently while his successor tries (unsuccessfully) to bully him would touch them (us) off. And that would be bad for the President, because by and large the people who still like Bush have been holding back a bit on going after Obama hammer and tongs on national security.
Again, is it high probability that Obama will be stupid tomorrow? …Again, no. But because it isn’t zero probability, it’s too risky; which means that Obama’s feel-good bullying attempts have pretty much eliminated a chance at a nice, bipartisan celebration that would have given him some credibility with independent voters on national security.
Karma. It’s what’s for dinner.
Moe Lane (crosspost)
*Even though they’ve just validated waterboarding as a valid technique in the GWOT.
Jeff Emanuel
the invite is part of a swerve to the center
deanayer Wednesday, May 4th at 11:39PM EDT (link)With the election coming up he needs to swerve to the center to try and sop up some independents. He has already said he wants the country to stay united like they were the night he announced OBL was dead.
That recent night, as you may remember, resulted in a “spontaneous” outpouring of flag waving (yes FLAG WAVING) college kids from Washington University and other schools in the area. These kids also tipped their hand by displaying Obama/Biden signs from the last election. I have no doubt that some tweet went out on some Move America Forward list with a call to suddenly show up filled with jingoistic fervor.
What was odd about the gathering is the narrow age range of its members. It looked like total astroturf and AGAIN it shows the cynicism of this administration and their shameless desire to remain in permanent campaign mode. Everything is politics with these people even on a night like that.
Now if he can be seen with Bush “sharing” the victory how could he help but look like a centrist? After 28 months of blaming Bush at every turn for everything why on earth would Bush stand next to this guy? Obama has a proven ability to slam people (SCOTUS, RYAN, even Trump) while right in front of them as long as they are “gagged” and prevented by circumstance from responding. In the case of Bush he has never had a chance to slam him like that and he actually wouldn’t do it at ground zero because HE ALREADY HAS, hundreds of times.
The visit to ground zero is a blatant political stunt, its not an anniversary, he wasn’t there last September 11th, he is only going there now to create another Berlin moment and offer himself up to receive praise like the narcissist he is.
Without Bush the event cant help but become a wellstone moment. What would seal the deal is if Rudy Giuliani failed to show up. That would take away the last fig leaf Obama has – it wouldn’t look like a classy and solemn moment of closure, it would be reduced to a ginned up campaign event.
In any case thats all that it is and it would blow up on any normal politician but Obama has something other candidates cant hope to have – he has the fawning press in his hip pocket and they will smooth off the rough edges of this crass stunt.
Perfect...you nailed it!
jiminga Thursday, May 5th at 8:07AM EDT (link)I wish I could have said it as well as you.
Woulda worked
NotSoBlueStater (Diary) Thursday, May 5th at 8:38AM EDT (link)If Obama had gotten Bush to come, and then managed to praise him, I’d have been impressed. The fact that it would be a political stunt doesn’t change the fact that it’s the right thing to do.
In fact, to Moe’s point, there are far, far more votes to be had at this moment LAVISHING praise on Bush than there are in over-grabbing at the credit.
Luckily for his political opponents, Obama simply has no way of knowing that.
-
The Conservative creed has never offered a life of ease without effort. Democracy is not for such people. Self-government is for those men and women who have learned to govern themselves. – Margaret Thatcher
Actually...
oldbird77 Thursday, May 5th at 9:12AM EDT (link)I saw a bunch of Bush-Chaney signs at first, which I thought was hilarious. It was only later that one dude with a “Latinos for Obama” sign showed up…And Washington University is in St. Louis. Did you mean George Washington University?
Obama won't "spike the football" in Al Qaeda's face
usdebateboard Wednesday, May 4th at 11:43PM EDT (link)But former President Bush knows better than to hang around the end zone and leave it to chance.
Obama won't "spike the football" in Al Qaeda's face
usdebateboard Wednesday, May 4th at 11:43PM EDT (link)But former President Bush knows better than to hang around the end zone and leave it to chance.
Campaign video
clintonformccain Thursday, May 5th at 12:11AM EDT (link)The whole event, as well as the trip to Fort Campbell, is just to shoot campaign video. They are flying in the styrofoam columns and everything…
Bush is man enough to sit through this wimp's speech
Adjoran (Diary) Thursday, May 5th at 12:19AM EDT (link)Whatever cheap shots Obama might take, Bush would sit there stoically – or maybe even crack a smile – and stay on the high road when asked about it later. The contrast in class would have again been made clear.
Bush declined because he didn’t want to see his face in an Obama campaign video or commercial next year.
Dubya wasn’t the smartest guy to ever be President, but he’s twice as smart as this one.
As usual Moe, You are Spot On with your analysis.
romeg Thursday, May 5th at 7:41AM EDT (link)Why would any sensible Republican want to participate in a campaign even for this communist?
“Of all tyrannies a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victim may be the most oppressive. It may be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron’s cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated, but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.” – C. S. Lewis
Bill Clinton
altexas Thursday, May 5th at 7:54AM EDT (link)was also invited and declined. Most intelligent people know by now who and what Obama is. Being associated with him is not in anyones best interest.
Morning News Claimed No Speech from MAObama Is Planned Now
Ausonius (Diary) Thursday, May 5th at 7:55AM EDT (link)BIG BRObama’s visit would be “a time to reflect” is what local anchor Blondie Bubblebrain claimed this morning.
I am betting that if this is true, there will still be some memorized “off-the-cuff” remarks to the press, and shots of MAObama giving hugs to these pre-selected families of victims.
“The time to reflect” will be a time for MAObama to reflect his narcissistic self in another photo-op.
Ausonius: 310-395 A.D. Teacher, Poet, Consul, General, Farmer.
Personal Tutor to the future St. Paulinus of Nola and to young Gratian, heir to the throne during the turbulent final years of the Western Roman Empire. When his former student Gratian was assassinated, Ausonius threw up his hands and retired to his farm in Gaul. Rome was captured by barbarians 14 years after his death.
Cato@rock.com
AND…Know Your Czars…Before They Hit BIG BRObama’s Unemployment Line in November: http://www.czarcards.us/
Obama shrugs
blooch Thursday, May 5th at 8:02AM EDT (link)“Whatever, W…Tommy, tell ‘em we have room for all of the styrofoam columns now.”
“Lieutenant Dike wasn’t a bad leader because he made bad decisions. He was a bad leader because he made no decisions.”
Class (Bush) vs Crass (Obama)
frankieb (Diary) Thursday, May 5th at 8:11AM EDT (link)n/t
Books … the most exotic, least expensive vacation: www.DelphiBooks.us
www.DaughterOfTheGreatDepression.blogspot.com
Claire McCaskill goes in so many directions, it’s amazing she hasn’t drawn and quartered herself. www.TruthAboutClaire.com
Ground Zero is a risky place for Obama to pull a stunt
Common_Cents (Diary) Thursday, May 5th at 8:39AM EDT (link)I’d like to see Bush take little O up on the offer. You KNOW people would chant “we want Bush” or “Thank you Bush” I would love to see a flash mob doing just that. With plenty of citizens with video cams.
“Fathom the hypocrisy of a Government
that requires every citizen to prove
they are insured…. but not everyone
must prove they are a citizen.” -Ben Stein
“In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule.”[especially in DC] – Friedrich Nietzsche
Speaking of stunts,
blooch Thursday, May 5th at 9:05AM EDT (link)will Obama visit the site of the Ground Zero mosque while he’s in the neighborhood?
What’s the status of that travesty? Funny how it’s just fallen down the media hole.
“Lieutenant Dike wasn’t a bad leader because he made bad decisions. He was a bad leader because he made no decisions.”
On one of my local channels...
NotSoBlueStater (Diary) Thursday, May 5th at 8:41AM EDT (link)… the anchor teasing the Ground Zero said that Obama was heading to New York after killing Osama Bin Laden. The narrative is cast here, folks. The right can try to pull back the curtain (and it has), but it’s a waste of energy.
Don’t take this bait. “It’s the economy, stupid.”
-
The Conservative creed has never offered a life of ease without effort. Democracy is not for such people. Self-government is for those men and women who have learned to govern themselves. – Margaret Thatcher
A.P. News On Ground Zero Visit Trashes W. Bush
Ausonius (Diary) Thursday, May 5th at 1:20PM EDT (link)The script is set indeed!
An excerpt from the Associated Press report on the Ground Zero visit:
“Ahead of Obama’s arrival, Deanne McDonald stood at the northeast corner of the World Trade Center site waving an American flag in each hand and shouting “Obama got Osama! Obama got Osama!”
“God bless the Navy SEALS,” said McDonald, 38, from Brooklyn. She took work off on Thursday to wait for the president, saying she was prouder than ever to be an American.
“I’m so proud of the president,” she said. “It happened on his watch.”
Obama’s New York visit was intended to have a measured tone — not a bookend to President George W. Bush’s visit after the attacks when Bush took a bullhorn and called out his defiance to the terrorists. Obama spokesman Jay Carney told reporters traveling with the president on Air Force One that the trip was intended in part “to perhaps help New Yorkers and Americans everywhere to achieve a sense of closure with the death of Osama bin Laden.”
See: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_obama_ground_zero
Yes, rude, crude W. Bush used a bullhorn, but cool aristocratic BIG BRObama would never do anything like that to upset the peaceful members of Islam.
Ausonius: 310-395 A.D. Teacher, Poet, Consul, General, Farmer.
Personal Tutor to the future St. Paulinus of Nola and to young Gratian, heir to the throne during the turbulent final years of the Western Roman Empire. When his former student Gratian was assassinated, Ausonius threw up his hands and retired to his farm in Gaul. Rome was captured by barbarians 14 years after his death.
Cato@rock.com
AND…Know Your Czars…Before They Hit BIG BRObama’s Unemployment Line in November: http://www.czarcards.us/
Insulting.
Marcus_Traianus (Diary) Thursday, May 5th at 9:22AM EDT (link)The President generally comes to NY to pick up campaign cash but has never felt the need to visit Ground Zero until now? Really?
Mr. Obama has fought against every useful intelligence and legal tool we have to use in the fight against this enemy. Some of those tools were used to capture UBL. He has never been a supporter of our military and regularly skips memorial events and ceremonies. But he never skips a round of golf- does he?
So why now in the midst of his reelection campaign? This entire sordid affair stinks of politics and insults the memory of those loved and lost. It defiles a sacred place for the sake of opportunism. Mr. Obama should be ashamed of such blatant exploitation.
Mr. Obama has given very little credence or credit to the giants in the Bush administration who came before him and did all the heavy lifting. Those who were, and still to this day are criticized for their wise actions which led us to this occasion. Those who made promises like the following and ensured that all resources would be in place, despite opposition from people like Mr. Obama, to make this day possible;
“Both of our political parties, at least the honest portion of them, agree conscientiously in the same object—the public good; but they differ essentially in what they deem the means of promoting that good. One side believes it best done by one composition of the governing powers; the other, by a different one. One fears most the ignorance of the people; the other, the selfishness of rulers independent of them. Which is right, time and experience will prove.”.Thomas Jefferson
Will O put in a good word for NSA surveillance?
johnt Thursday, May 5th at 10:37AM EDT (link)Maybe a friendly nod to water boarding[ torture!] all of three mass murderers, and the benefits derived. Probably not. Instead we may have references to the security mess he, and only he, inherited, and how he straightened it out.
With his and his administrations usual aplomb it has been announced that a car mileage tax will be recommended, and given the usual Orwellian type cover name. Ah, the grace and savvy of it all.
“a man’s admiration for absolute government is proportinate to the contempt he feels for those around him”. Tocqueville