Missouri GOP, African-Americans kill Russ Carnahan’s seat.


This could very well be the prettiest redistricting map that you’re going to see this cycle:

You see, Missouri is in an interesting place where the state is: losing a Congressional seat; just coming off an election cycle where they flipped a seat to the GOP (making the current ratio 6 GOP / 3 DEM); and in possession of an almost veto-proof Republican legislature.  So, Missouri Republicans decided to handle the situation by creating a 6 GOP / 2 DEM district map that cut up Russ Carnahan’s district and forced him to compete in a heavily African-American district (as per the Voting Rights Act) against incumbent William Lacy Clay.  They also more or less left Emanuel Cleaver’s seat alone  – Rep. Cleaver does not represent a majority-minority district, by the way; this will be important later.  And then the legislature sent the map to Democratic governor Jay Nixon, who promptly vetoed it.

Oddly enough, when it came to the override, four Democrats crossed over to vote for the map, thus overriding the veto!  Oddly enough, all four are African-Americans (who readily admitted that they were protecting Clay’s and Cleaver’s seats)!  And oddly enough, Russ is not taking it well!  And by ‘not taking it well’ I mean ‘engaging in profanity-laden, bitterly sarcastic invective,’ although I’m not entirely certain that Russ can actually spell any of those words*.  It’s probably not helping that the Carnahan name may be a bit… colored, in Missouri African-American eyes… by virtue of past history.

Moving on, this is going to be a real headache for the Democratic party, both in Missouri and nationally.  The state problems are obvious – hey, live by racial gerrymandering and identity politics, die by ‘em – but the issue on the national level is a bit more subtle.  You see, Cleaver happens to head the Congressional Black Caucus, which is a bit more powerful in the Democratic party these days by virtue of the fact that its membership was not particularly affected by the Great Democratic Shellacking of 2010.  Russ, on the other hand, is enough of an earner in the Democratic party that he could possibly challenge Clay for the seat anyway… and the fellow is apparently aggrieved enough to try (there’s no question that Russ is petty enough, of course).  That means a messy, expensive primary, in a district that’s usually not vulnerable to such things.

In other words, it’s a lovely day out today.

Moe Lane (crosspost)

*Seriously.

That’s not a Photoshopped image.  That’s his official picture.


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27 Comments Leave a comment

So is this the final map then?

earlgrey (Diary) Thursday, May 5th at 4:39PM EDT (link)

Didn’t Russ have a sister who went down in flames in 2010?

Why, yes. He does.

Bill S (Diary) Thursday, May 5th at 6:10PM EDT (link)

She took her share of beatings here at Redstate during the last election…

http://www.redstate.com/bs/

Scroll down to see my stuff on Robin Carnahan.

The long Missouri Carnahan nightmare is almost over.

“It’s such a fine line between stupid, and clever.” – David St. Hubbins

I like to see political dynasty familes go down.

carolina Thursday, May 5th at 7:58PM EDT (link)

Which is what I said about this in the politico discussion. Political dynasty people tend to be the very POLITICAL ELITE that I detest. Good job MO!
I hope we have other similar redistricting victories to cheer in other states (and I think we will)
Elections do have consequences.

 

I like to see political dynasty familes go down.

carolina Thursday, May 5th at 7:58PM EDT (link)

Which is what I said about this in the politico discussion. Political dynasty people tend to be the very POLITICAL ELITE that I detest. Good job MO!
I hope we have other similar redistricting victories to cheer in other states (and I think we will)
Elections do have consequences.

 
 
 

I am enjoying a Dove Bar right now. Good show. nt

Steve Maley (Diary) Thursday, May 5th at 5:21PM EDT (link)

The blogger formerly known as ‘Vladimir’.

 

Love that photo.

ptort Thursday, May 5th at 6:13PM EDT (link)

“Ready, 1, 2, 3, Snarl!”

 

Aww... Poor Russ...

Frederick (Diary) Thursday, May 5th at 6:20PM EDT (link)

He never got the acclaim of Mel. Of course, the only reason Mel won his Senate seat was that he’d recently died tragically, and Jim Talent campaigns like a wet noodle.

Russ never got much acclaim and with good reason, of course. As incompetent as Mel Carnahan was, at least he could compose a coherent sentence or two in defense of his positions and knew how to drive his agenda locally. With any luck, this will be the end of that particular political dynasty.

As for Mayor Cleaver (oh, sorry, he’s a Congressman now), all I have to say is that as much as I despised the man as Mayor of my hometown, the guy knows how to politick. Carnahan’s chances remind me of a snowball’s in a very hot place.

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“I would rather be exposed to the inconveniences attending too much liberty than to those attending too small a degree of it.”
– - Thomas Jefferson, to Archibald Stuart, 1791

 

What a photo!

runner12 (Diary) Thursday, May 5th at 6:38PM EDT (link)

Was there not a picture retake day? Yikes!

Maybe the lens was warped.

earlgrey (Diary) Thursday, May 5th at 7:32PM EDT (link)

I said a while ago that it looks like a face in a fun house mirror.

 
 

Moe, keep mo' news like the MO map coming. That is a beautiful thing (the map, not the pic). nt

Melody Warbington (rwm52) (Diary) Thursday, May 5th at 8:55PM EDT (link)

The woman saith unto him, I know that Messiah cometh (he that is called Christ): when he is come, he will declare unto us all things. (John 4:25)

 

Sorry Moe, this map is terrible

alwaysfiredup Thursday, May 5th at 8:58PM EDT (link)

…if you live in the western part of the state.

Most of the state GOP made a deal with Cleaver to gerrymander Kansas CityJackson County to give both Sam Graves (R) and Cleaver (D) safer districts. Now the most urban parts of KC are matched with rural counties almost to Columbia while Graves’ rural district picked up some close-in KC suburbs. The Kansas City GOP begged our legislators to keep Jackson County together and they sold us out for some good feelings with a Democrat. Jacob Turk has worked for a decade to beat Cleaver the old-fashioned way, at the ballot box, and they just took his neighborhood out of Cleaver’s district entirely. Awful and shameful.

The Tea Party needs to take back the Missouri GOP.

**I have nothing against the absence of Russ Carnahan. DLTDHYONWO.

Fair point, alwaysfiredup: but would...

Moe Lane (Diary) Thursday, May 5th at 9:24PM EDT (link)

…you have gotten a better western MO map passed? Serious question: I got the impression that the Governor was prepared to veto any reasonable map anyway.

They didn't try, and yes.

alwaysfiredup Thursday, May 5th at 9:38PM EDT (link)

Nearly all the members of the committee were from St. Louis. They cared exclusively about Carnahan, Lacy Clay, Todd Akin and Jo Ann Emerson. They were using KC as a bargaining chip to get Cleaver to sit on the sidelines. He would have anyway; KC is already his people. He wins easily every year. In contrast, the rural voters in Saline county, both Dems and GOP, are livid that they now have to have Cleaver as their rep.

What happened was Sam Graves decided it would be a good opportunity to get a majority-Republican district by taking the most Republican areas of high-population Jackson County for his district. He’s the big GOP dog in the area and he gets what he wants now that Republicans have nearly a veto-proof majority in both houses of the Legislature. It’s Graves’ ruse to say that they had to do this to KC to keep Cleaver on board. Cleaver just wanted to see Lacy Clay’s district preserved, he didn’t need rural voters to keep his seat (and they will probably be a problem for him in the future). No one here likes this map. We had a ton of public hearings and everyone said the same thing. The map only helps people who don’t live here: people like Sam Graves.

 

And by "this map"...

alwaysfiredup Thursday, May 5th at 9:47PM EDT (link)

…I mean the dividing line between the 4th 5th and 6th districts in Jackson and adjacent counties. The rest of it looks lovely. KC simply didn’t need to to be gerrymandered in order to have a popcorn-fest of a fight between Clay and Carnahan.

OK: thanks for the on-the-scene data.

Moe Lane (Diary) Thursday, May 5th at 10:53PM EDT (link)

By the way: RedState does not mind at all if people talk or write about politics on the state or even local level. The more local races or issues that are being covered by people on the scene, the better. :)

Yeah, that might have been more useful

alwaysfiredup Sunday, May 8th at 8:35PM EDT (link)

…than complaining after the fact. ;) I’ll keep that in mind for 2012. Thanks.

 
 
 
 
 

That Picture

Repair_Man_Jack (Diary) Thursday, May 5th at 9:48PM EDT (link)

Is it Agent Smith from The Matrix, or Butthead after a decent shower?

Mr. Obama is pretending that an economic “recovery” is underway when he knows damn well that the banking system is just blowing smoke up the shredded *** of what’s left of that economy – James Howard Kunstler

 

Really a ligit ?

freemanja1991 (Diary) Friday, May 6th at 1:59AM EDT (link)

how competitive will the new 5th be? the republican in 10 only lost by ~11 points. And it isn’t a majority minority district. So I really wanna know how competitive it will be. The old district was D+10 will the new one be, what, D+7, it had to have picked up some more conservative areas. Someone please help answer this for me.

There is no new fifth, in that sense

Neil Stevens (Diary) Friday, May 6th at 2:05AM EDT (link)

Missouri is losing a seat.

RS contributing editor and “a hardy variety of crabgrass.”
Read the RedState Posting Rules

Unlikely Voter: Poll Analysis, Election Projection.

“I rejoice that America has resisted.” – William Pitt, the Elder

No Really

freemanja1991 (Diary) Friday, May 6th at 10:00AM EDT (link)

There is still a KC based 5th congressional district. With Cleaver as an incumbent. Did it move to the right with redistricting? Even just a few points. Because it did get bigger in area.

Oh wait, did I get the number wrong? (nt)

Neil Stevens (Diary) Friday, May 6th at 11:22AM EDT (link)

RS contributing editor and “a hardy variety of crabgrass.”
Read the RedState Posting Rules

Unlikely Voter: Poll Analysis, Election Projection.

“I rejoice that America has resisted.” – William Pitt, the Elder

Ok so the number changed?

freemanja1991 (Diary) Friday, May 6th at 2:06PM EDT (link)

What ever. You could still just answer the ?. So if you can’t I’d like to find someone who can tell me what this new KC based district would look like, on competitiveness.

Still the 5th. [nt]

alwaysfiredup Sunday, May 8th at 8:43PM EDT (link)
 
 

Slightly, if at all.

alwaysfiredup Sunday, May 8th at 8:41PM EDT (link)

Cleaver previously had just about every majority-Democrat precinct within 200 miles, so no matter which direction the district expanded, it would become more Republican. The rural districts Cleaver got in exchange for Independence and Raytown are slightly more Democratic than most of rural MO, so I think on balance the R/D ratio will be about the same. Sadly, Turk now has to move if he’s going to challenge Cleaver again.

...make that 50 miles.

alwaysfiredup Sunday, May 8th at 8:45PM EDT (link)

200 miles would land you in STL. Clearly estimating distance isn’t my specialty.

Thanks

freemanja1991 (Diary) Sunday, May 8th at 11:35PM EDT (link)

And dang, at least if it were closer, dems may have to put more resources into defending it.

 

Also

freemanja1991 (Diary) Sunday, May 8th at 11:43PM EDT (link)

What makes KC so liberal, the district isn’t a majority minority. It doesn’t have a big hood area does it?